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Breaky Bitcoin Blues

Slideways

I was having the porridge this morning with a few colleagues, and the chat came around to cryptocurrency. Turns out they all got roasted buying bitcoin, Ethereum and other coins during the bubble in November and December of last year. Two of the lads are going to sell their remaining coins this week, and put the whole thing down to getting greedy and falling for a classic pyramid scheme. One other lad (a hard-living Scot) was threatening to track down an ex-colleague of ours and ‘put the slipphery wee kunt in a grave’ for talking the group into buying these coins in the first place.

One of them was worth almost 900k Aussie dollars at the height of the bubble. He was boasting back in December about buying a yacht, moving to Puerto Rico, and shacking up with some local bird with his epic crypto gains. His investment is now worth less than 3k.That’s shocking stuff. You’d hear very little these days about the space in the papers, or on the telly. Did anyone here lose the arse of their trousers gambling on these coins, and did you learn a lesson? Has it any future at all? Was it greed, stupidity, or a mixture of both that caused young lads to throw their savings into this stuff? You’d have to stroke your chin and wonder what they were thinking.

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squawker

The Enbalmer wrote: »

ask them a question about real-world usages for their magic money.

I bought €5000 worth of computer equipment and also a €2500 3D camera with BtC last December and a VW Touran from cashed in BtC from my max investment of €120 in BtC 9 years ago

Blockchain is going to be the future of Internet money like it or not

The Enbalmer

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

A thorough reading of Thinking, Fast and Slow might be a useful activity for some of the more ideologically driven cryptoheads (not just on Boards). Kanhneman writes about many of the cognitive biases that are on display.

Examples included pervasive optimistic bias, the planning fallacy, the illusion of control, anchoring effect, overconfidence, the sunk cost fallacy.

Late 2017/early 2018 was a classic hysteria bubble, and now the coins have dropped in value by over 95%. Products aren't being developed using cryptocoins, usage is actually dropping, liquidity is nonexistent, exit scams are still continuing, and the whole space is in a death rattle to any non-biased outsider.

My own belief is that crypto attracted lots of fairly financially illiterate young men who thought they could make money by investing in hugely manipulated coin offerings. The fear of missing out was strong. The people who put real money into the system to buy these magic coins were the real losers. The smart guys were those who just launched their own coin, created some hype, then cashed out and exited stage left. No different than any other scam.

You'd think after the sheer number of scams irish people have fallen for historically that people would be more carefull but no...in they rush and defend their poor decision to the death.

I notice on that forum the focus moved very quickly from Lambos and riches to trying to make pennies by messing around with ever more obscure ****ecoins and then still professing themselves to be experts.

Then there's the Subways in Venezuala

JohnnyFlash

A thorough reading of Thinking, Fast and Slow might be a useful activity for some of the more ideologically driven cryptoheads (not just on Boards). Kanhneman writes about many of the cognitive biases that are on display.

Examples included pervasive optimistic bias, the planning fallacy, the illusion of control, anchoring effect, overconfidence, the sunk cost fallacy.

Late 2017/early 2018 was a classic hysteria bubble, and now the coins have dropped in value by over 95%. Products aren't being developed using cryptocoins, usage is actually dropping, liquidity is nonexistent, exit scams are still continuing, and the whole space is in a death rattle to any non-biased outsider.

My own belief is that crypto attracted lots of fairly financially illiterate young men who thought they could make money by investing in hugely manipulated coin offerings. The fear of missing out was strong. The people who put real money into the system to buy these magic coins were the real losers. The smart guys were those who just launched their own coin, created some hype, then cashed out and exited stage left. No different than any other scam.

The Enbalmer

Some bunch of lunatics over on the Crypto forum.

They remind me of flat earthers or Scientologists.

Definitely a brainwashed cult of some sort..ask them a question about real-world usages for their magic money and you'll get a torrent of abuse and then you'll be banned.

I understand it's difficult when you've been ripped off by a Ponzi scheme but no need to blame everybody who is cynical about the whole nonsense that it Crypto.

[Deleted User]

gctest50 wrote: »

Ya might want check for this before all yer bitcoins get stolen :

https://github.com/dominictarr/event-stream/issues/116#issuecomment-441746370

This comments are a great read. While I get the dev's point, he really dropped the ball not deprecating instead.

I use node for hobby projects, and I will use it for a site I want to built next year, but the dependencies are kinda insane. You get tricked into thinking you're writing such clean and concise code, till you look at node_modules.

To everyone else, the attacker simply asked for permission to work on the project and then obfuscated his malicious code. Some GitHub trickery meant it was only part of the repo for a while before being removed, but it was the tainted version that was being downloaded by all of these other modules. (I suck at github but I think that's it)

grindle

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

You'd want to have a fairly high level of internet level security - the highest.
So it just isn't for the average bloke at moment - and it is average people buying it - hence why it was over valued.

Agreed on all points.

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I still think your nuts to think it is safe - do you know anyone who had it stolen - did you have some stolen

Yes to knowing people who've gotten scammed, I haven't been scammed - yet?

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

How much have you lost on Bitcoin ?

Nothing. Not a Bitcoin fan, had a small amount a few years back thinking it was a cute idea and lost interest because it didn't have any utility beyond being a hedge against fiat. Bitcoin is an artificially crippled power-hog.
Most development revolves around Ethereum these days and it was the idea of programmable contracts for enterprise use that pricked my ears up and made me think "This maybe isn't just a niche libtard dream!"
Automation has already pummelled traditional "blue-collar" work & I reckon IoT, AI and blockchain will in the future make a meal of a lot of white-collar work.

the_syco

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The first part is something that is thrown around. Cheap hydro in Canada, Iceland, and Norway. The reality is that while the cost per kWh is cheap, the cost of direct grid connections, overhead, and labour costs make bitcoin quite expensive in these countries. And utilities are having to change their cost and operation models to make more from less energy consumption. So most crypto mining is done in China using coal fired plants using 90's technology.

Genesis Mining moved to Iceland in 2014, so some mining companies would probably pop up since they moved there. This link shows people looking to make old hydo dams to only power mining farms. It'll be interesting if many follow this idea?

China is the largest coal miner, so I doubt that the cost of coal is that much, though they are aiming at cutting their carob output, so I'm unsure what they intend to do long term.

Frunchy

Newer cryptos are using proof of stake which eliminates the energy cost of mining.

FixdePitchmark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

grindle wrote: »

That last line - did you think it would be 100% unstealable? Almost everything can be stolen. If the owner makes an error then the owner can get screwed over., I don't see how it's any more of a solid argument against crypto vs keeping silverware in your kitchen drawers, jewellery in an unlocked box in the bedroom or the latest fashspaz-jacket from Brown Thomas in your wardrobe.

I'd rather have something in a house than a computer.

Even the FBI have been hacked.

This bloke could hardly do an IF statement in excel.

You'd want to have a fairly high level of internet level security - the highest.
So it just isn't for the average bloke at moment - and it is average people buying it - hence why it was over valued.

I still think your nuts to think it is safe - do you know anyone who had it stolen - did you have some stolen ,

How much have you lost on Bitcoin ?

grindle

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

One of the things that is very much ignored by the mainstream media is the astonishing amount of energy used by bitcoin miners.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/energy-footprint-of-bitcoin-beginning-to-outstrip-entire-state-1.3389239
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/05/new-study-quantifies-bitcoins-ludicrous-energy-consumption/
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/17/bitcoin-electricity-usage-huge-climate-cryptocurrency
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-mining-energy-use-electricity-cryptocurrency-a8353981.html
http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-uses-about-as-much-power-as-the-entire-country-of-ireland-2018-5?international=true&r=UK&IR=T
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5737919/Bitcoin-consume-energy-Austria-end-year-experts-say.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/12/19/why-the-bitcoin-craze-is-using-up-so-much-energy/?utm_term=.c98f8a61e8eb
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/bitcoin-outshines-electric-cars-as-driver-of-global-power-use

Yeah it's crazy, almost no coverage across all major publications whatsoever. :rolleyes:

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Other crypto scams say they are about to release alternatives to this repugnant proof-of-work scheme. But all of them lead to centralisation.

False. Proof of Stake allows for staking pool contracts meaning anybody at all with ANY amount of ether will be able to put some into a contract. It's a particularly good method of decentralising transaction verification in comparison to traditional miners. If referring to Delegated Proof of Stake a la EOS (a genuine scam) then yes, it leads to hilarious levels of centralisation.
Anyway, you already knew about staking pools because I've told you about them a few times. You weren't chucked from the crypto forum for having an opposing point of view, you were chucked for soapboxing and ignoring facts and arguments presented to you.
Come on Johnny, be honest and form arguments properly without ignoring anything - you can do it! I believe in you.

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

1) I asked can it just be replicated ?
A: No it can't be replicated. Not in the way you might think anyway.
2) Is it too slow and can be improved on ?
A: Yes it's too slow and can be improved upon.
3) Can it be stolen ?
A: If you're careless with your keys or trusting exchanges to hold your coins, of course it can be stolen.
4) You must view it as an investment of the highest order of risk - and could be worth nothing ?
A: Yes, because maybe none of the problems which are being mulled over get solved or maybe nobody wants to use it. Then it's worth nothing. Think of it like oil in 100 years - I hope to god I didn't choose too short a timeframe there but I'd hope renewable energy loosened oil's grip by then - if people don't need the oil for any reason, it will keep losing value until it has none.

The big thing was its advantages over other currencies - but in the next line he told me a friend of ours had all his stolen.

That last line - did you think it would be 100% unstealable? Almost everything can be stolen. If the owner makes an error then the owner can get screwed over., I don't see how it's any more of a solid argument against crypto vs keeping silverware in your kitchen drawers, jewellery in an unlocked box in the bedroom or the latest fashspaz-jacket from Brown Thomas in your wardrobe.

JohnnyFlash

the_syco wrote: »

Most of the larger "successful" bitcoin farms were built near hydroelectric dams to get cheap electricity.

Ireland is a good location for it's cool climate. Thus why Apple trying to set up cloud shop in Galway.

Agreed on the second part, dude. We've a cool, wet, and fairly mundane climate. And the ESB are world leaders in facilitating HV connections to the electricity grid. They are shutting down our traditional peat and coal assets though, so there will be future challenges in our ability to produce energy without having to rely on very expensive and inefficient interconnectors.

The first part is something that is thrown around. Cheap hydro in Canada, Iceland, and Norway. The reality is that while the cost per kWh is cheap, the cost of direct grid connections, overhead, and labour costs make bitcoin quite expensive in these countries. And utilities are having to change their cost and operation models to make more from less energy consumption. So most crypto mining is done in China using coal fired plants using 90's technology.

the_syco

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

One of the things that is very much ignored by the mainstream media is the astonishing amount of energy used by bitcoin miners. The proof of work concept that underlies bitcoin awards participants by asking them to use as much compute and electricity power as they can.

Most of the larger "successful" bitcoin farms were built near hydroelectric dams to get cheap electricity.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

It now consumes far more energy daily that the entire island of Ireland. And this is a small country which is home to some of the world's largest data centers. Amazon and Microsoft are both doubling down on their cloud business, and Ireland is the location for their West Europe offering.

Ireland is a good location for it's cool climate. Thus why Apple trying to set up cloud shop in Galway.

Woke Hogan

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

One of the things that is very much ignored by the mainstream media is the astonishing amount of energy used by bitcoin miners. The proof of work concept that underlies bitcoin awards participants by asking them to use as much compute and electricity power as they can.

It now consumes far more energy daily that the entire island of Ireland. And this is a small country which is home to some of the world's largest data centers. Amazon and Microsoft are both doubling down on their cloud business, and Ireland is the location for their West Europe offering.

Other crypto scams say they are about to release alternatives to this repugnant proof-of-work scheme. But all of them lead to centralisation. And then all you have is a really slow excel spreadsheet where everyone who owns a copy has a say on which version is correct. But the more you've spent on the copy of the database the more you get to say which version is correct.

In short: Bitcoin is bollocks, cryptocurrency is made up of scammers and those who were scammed, and blockchain is the worst technology 'innovation' since the lead engine.

That's very interesting. Did you know that there's a Cryptocurrency forum? I've posted in there once or twice but it seems like a bit of a circlejerk. They could use a dissenting voice or two.

Phoebas

That node library apparently has over 2m downloads a week (seems crazy high to me, but it looks like it's a very common dependency of a bunch of other common dependencies.)

This isn't specific to cryptos, but you often hear crypto enthusiasts hail the idea that because the codebases are generally open means that malicious code is unlikely.
In reality, anything built on a complex dependency chain runs a major risk of something like this happening.

FixdePitchmark

gctest50 wrote: »

Someone wrote a bit of code and looked after it for a while

Then ran out of spare time ( or maybe interest ) to keeping looking after it so he left someone else look after it

His little bit of code ended up in all sorts of places

Bit of code got hacked, so now if it "sees" a particular coin/wallet, it will steal all yer coins

Had a massive lecture from a Bitcoin melted head on a very long drive a few months ago.

They are like religious zealots - if you ask fairly genuine question , you are just a skeptic and not with it.

1) I asked can it just be replicated ?
2) Is it too slow and can be improved on ?
3) Can it be stolen ?
4) You must view it as an investment of the highest order of risk - and could be worth nothing ?

The big thing was its advantages over other currencies - but in the next line he told me a friend of ours had all his stolen.

Does anyone genuinely trust anything on line - sure you get Russian pop ups looking at anything.

the_syco

I once bought $50 bitcoin.

I used $50 bitcoin to buy a subscription from one site.

I later used $50 to buy something else.

I now have $23 bitcoin left of the original $50 bitcoin, after having spend $100 bitcoin.

I see that the price of one bitcoin has tanked from $8k to just under $5k. Seems Ether also dropped since the "hard fork" in mid November. So now may be a good time to buy a bit, but people gotta understand that it's only worth what you can use it as. No point holding onto something that won't be worth the paper its printed on should you hold it too long.

gctest50

It tries to steal coins if it "sees" this :

https://copay.io/

gctest50

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Can you explain what this is about for those of us who aren't overly IT literate?

Someone wrote a bit of code and looked after it for a while

Then ran out of spare time ( or maybe interest ) to keeping looking after it so he left someone else look after it

His little bit of code ended up in all sorts of places

Bit of code got hacked, so now if it "sees" a particular coin/wallet, it will steal all yer coins

JohnnyFlash

One of the things that is very much ignored by the mainstream media is the astonishing amount of energy used by bitcoin miners. The proof of work concept that underlies bitcoin awards participants by asking them to use as much compute and electricity power as they can.

It now consumes far more energy daily that the entire island of Ireland. And this is a small country which is home to some of the world's largest data centers. Amazon and Microsoft are both doubling down on their cloud business, and Ireland is the location for their West Europe offering.

Other crypto scams say they are about to release alternatives to this repugnant proof-of-work scheme. But all of them lead to centralisation. And then all you have is a really slow excel spreadsheet where everyone who owns a copy has a say on which version is correct. But the more you've spent on the copy of the database the more you get to say which version is correct.

In short: Bitcoin is bollocks, cryptocurrency is made up of scammers and those who were scammed, and blockchain is the worst technology 'innovation' since the lead engine.

JohnnyFlash

gctest50 wrote: »

Ya might want check for this before all yer bitcoins get stolen :

https://github.com/dominictarr/event-stream/issues/116#issuecomment-441746370

Can you explain what this is about for those of us who aren't overly IT literate?

gctest50

Ya might want check for this before all yer bitcoins get stolen :

https://github.com/dominictarr/event-stream/issues/116#issuecomment-441746370

Woke Hogan

Cryptocurrencies are poisonous to the environment and its Libertarian investors are poisonous to our society. I'd say searches on eBay for "ropes" and "rickety stools" have rocketed in the past few months since Bitcoin started its freefall. No loss.

grindle

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Comedy gold for the sceptic.

Pretty funny for everybody involved my love, don't go hogging it. Us libertarian neckbeards are good with gallows humour.

On your predictions:

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Tether to finally collapse

Hopefully. Bullish on this prediction.

More SEC investigations and enforcements.

Obviously. Not an insightful prediction really - it's a continuation of what the SEC have been doing and have said they'll continue to do.
My prediction: Pope remains Catholic.

At least one large exchange to be ‘hacked’.

Dime a dozen, why did you bother writing this? Some shady bastard wants to rob money and somebody decides to trust their funds on his exchange? Yeah, there'll be robberies - no shít.

John McAfee to overdose.

:pac::D:pac::D
Plz not before he eats his own dick
Maybe this is what he overdoses on?

MtGox coins to flood the market

I'd thought this had happened, but if not, then good I suppose? If Bitcoin can't withstand the sell-off it doesn't deserve to exist

Civil war amongst the miners - more forks, 51% attacks, unused networks.

Yep. Power struggles ahoy.

The environmental disaster that is mining to become mainstream news

I'd thought we were already here or that this was already big news? If it's bigger news in future it means mining has increased which likely means price has increased. I'd rather that doesn't happen and traditional mining squirrels off towards more valuable tasks.

Bitmain IPO to be cancelled.

Hrmm. Possibly. This is the most interesting prediction, Jihan's defintely overexposed in so many ways. He has billions at his disposal but I don't think this matters much in terms of an IPO - people thinking of investing in such an IPO would do well to look at Hive Blockchain's drop. Not to say they're dying or dead yet but if you don't like the booms and busts it's not the right place to put your money.

More predictions Johnny! I prefer your predictions to your regurgitations. It's more like a conversation this way.

Frunchy

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

JohnnyFlash

Bitcoin didn’t do anything to make it worth 20k.

Bitcoin isn’t doing anything that makes it worth 3.8k.

It, and by extension, all the other magic beans shîtcoins are worth 0. That is their true value.

The whole thing was an epic bubble inflated by greed, hysteria, and fear of missing out.

Most people know what Bitcoin is and don’t want it. Same for the other cryptos. It’s never nice to be a bag holder when a scam is exposed, but it can be difficult to feel sympathy for some of them because of how smug and superior they are. The assumption you ‘just don’t get it’ if you had a diffiering opinion to them. Neckbeardism and libertarianism is a terrible combination.

My predictions for the rest of the year and next year.

Tether to finally collapse
More SEC investigations and enforcements.
At least one large exchange to be ‘hacked’.
John McAfee to overdose.
MtGox coins to flood the market
Civil war amongst the miners - more forks, 51% attacks, unused networks.
The environmental disaster that is mining to become mainstream news
Bitmain IPO to be cancelled.

Comedy gold for the sceptic.

Frunchy

I made money off crypto. 500% return on investment.

JohnnyFlash

Donovan Shapely Adventurer wrote: »

Good time to buy!

What will you be buying yourself, Nox?

[Deleted User]

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Weird, dude.

I’m not one to boast, but I’ve been predicting this massive collapse since late last year.

Good time to buy!

grindle

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

In it for the tech.

Love that guy. Don't let your memes be dreams Johnny!

JohnnyFlash

In it for the tech.