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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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RobMc59

Anthracite wrote: »

Perfect. No deal is impossible for the UK, so that moves things further towards where we want them.

Personally I think that is incorrect-no deal may be perceived as better than the deal on offer even to reasonable people .That is the attitude to THIS deal which is infinitely inferior to remaining in the EU and is worse than a no deal brexit to some .As suggested in earlier posts,perhaps that is TMs plan,which will start with this deal being rejected and hopefully the UK remaining in the EU-the gamble is that this strategy may result in a no deal brexit.

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Back stop ni only not uk wide. They were adamant it was ni only. They changed their tune.

The whole of the UK being tied to the CU in a backstop is a concession by the UK, it is something that the Irish government wanted, but did not insist on because they thought it would have been beyond what could have been extracted from the UK government. The UK have been allowed to spin it as a negotiating victory, but the EU has wanted the closest possible relationship from the start, the UK tying itself to the CU even if no other deal can be agreed is not a loss for the EU.

You know you are failing in a negotiation if your victories are successfuly insisting that you be allowed give the other side what they want.

EdgeCase

Interesting to see that Theresa May is still dragging up the claims about NHS funding in a letter written to “the nation” on 24 November 2018.

This is what worries me. You think the narrative has moved on and then the same spin from 2016 is regurgitated.

See tweet below:

https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1066620406566711297?s=21

Dyr

Enzokk wrote: »

And here for anyone thinking that there will be more negotiations with the EU,

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1066635867127713793

The Mail on Sunday has this story that convinced Michael Gove to back the deal.

Michael Gove 'decided to back May's Brexit after hearing how UK would run out of clean drinking water within DAYS of No Deal'

Even if this is the worse case scenario I still don't know how anyone who is elected to represent the interests of their constituents actually think about leaving the EU, nevermind without a deal. There is no scenario where the UK is better off outside the EU than inside so already they are going against their voters interests. Actively going for a no-deal is despicable when you know people will suffer.

TBH a drinking water system that relies on Just in Time deliveries should be a concern for everybody in terms of its resilience rather than a brexit issue

LeinsterDub

Econ__ wrote: »

The backstop won't be reopened (Jeez, lots of Irish are really insecure). The only thing that could get reopened is the Political Declaration - and that would only be for a softening of Brexit.

I'd not pay attention to Judeboy they've been saying we'll be stabbed in the back any minute now for over half a year

CelticRambler

judeboy101 wrote: »

Barnier told the EU (btw, Ireland is part of the EU) that the backstop was NI only. UK told EU they wanted backstop for entire UK, EU gave into that demand.

The backstop is still NI-specific; the EU has agreed to allow the NI-friendly terms of the transition to apply to the whole of the UK.

Hurrache

judeboy101 wrote: »

I was asked for example, i gave one

But you didn't!

Anthracite

RobMc59 wrote: »

This deal may suit Ireland and I believe initially it may have appeared preferable to no deal for the UK but as is constantly being gleefully pointed out on this forum,TM appears to be capitulating to the EU so either remain or no deal is becoming more attractive .

Perfect. No deal is impossible for the UK, so that moves things further towards where we want them.

Anthracite

judeboy101 wrote: »

Barnier told the EU (btw, Ireland is part of the EU) that the backstop was NI only. UK told EU they wanted backstop for entire UK, EU gave into that demand. I've given an example.

Clutching at straws here to be honest.

RobMc59

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What makes you think there will be any pressure on the EU to change the terms on offer? It is obvious that the UK cannot carry out the threat of no-deal and if in a fit of hubris they allow it to happen, they will last days not weeks before they are forced to capitulate and accept the deal as is.

The UK and not the EU will be making the concessions from this point forward.

This deal may suit Ireland and I believe initially it may have appeared preferable to no deal for the UK but as is constantly being gleefully pointed out on this forum,TM appears to be capitulating to the EU so either remain or no deal is becoming more attractive .

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

Pathetic example given it didn't have a negative affect on Ireland, like you insinuate. Really clutching at straws if that's all you can come up with.

I was asked for example, i gave one. Not my fault if it doesn't fit your narrative. A UK wide backstop hurts Irish reunification, makes Ireland a less attractive place to future fdi if uk still has access to EU.

Hurrache

Pathetic example given it didn't have a negative affect on Ireland, like you insinuate. Really clutching at straws if that's all you can come up with.

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

What makes you think there will be any pressure on the EU to change the terms on offer? It is obvious that the UK cannot carry out the threat of no-deal and if in a fit of hubris they allow it to happen, they will last days not weeks before they are forced to capitulate and accept the deal as is.

The UK and not the EU will be making the concessions from this point forward.

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

He asked you for an example where they went back on their word to us, do you have one?

Barnier told the EU (btw, Ireland is part of the EU) that the backstop was NI only. UK told EU they wanted backstop for entire UK, EU gave into that demand. I've given an example.

Hurrache

judeboy101 wrote: »

Back stop ni only not uk wide. They were adamant it was ni only. They changed their tune.

He asked you for an example where they went back on their word to us, do you have one?

judeboy101

Enzokk wrote: »

In all the time you have posted on here that the EU will turn on us, has it happened once? Can you point to one instance where they have gone back on their word to Ireland and gave in to the UK position?

Back stop ni only not uk wide. They were adamant it was ni only. They changed their tune.

Enzokk

And here for anyone thinking that there will be more negotiations with the EU,

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1066635867127713793

The Mail on Sunday has this story that convinced Michael Gove to back the deal.

Michael Gove 'decided to back May's Brexit after hearing how UK would run out of clean drinking water within DAYS of No Deal'

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit in a doomsday scenario that convinced Michael Gove to back Theresa May’s deal.

Whitehall disaster planners have warned Ministers that leaving the EU without a deal could spark a national crisis as crucial chemicals used in water purification are imported to the UK from Europe.

The deliveries risk getting caught in weeks of border chaos if Britain quits the EU next March without the Prime Minister’s deal with Brussels being approved by MPs.

The vital chemicals are timed to arrive ‘just in time’ and cannot be stockpiled as they are too volatile, meaning water plants would have to turn off the taps as soon as they ran out or risk poisoning millions.

Even if this is the worse case scenario I still don't know how anyone who is elected to represent the interests of their constituents actually think about leaving the EU, nevermind without a deal. There is no scenario where the UK is better off outside the EU than inside so already they are going against their voters interests. Actively going for a no-deal is despicable when you know people will suffer.

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

In all the time you have posted on here that the EU will turn on us, has it happened once? Can you point to one instance where they have gone back on their word to Ireland and gave in to the UK position?

Enzokk

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1066631782735519744

Water John wrote: »

The Leave Campaign are taking offence that t took EU Leaders all of 38 mins to agree to the deal. They simply don't understand that within the EU, all homework is done.

They didn't seem to mind that it took the DUP 10 minutes to decide to back Leave though, so are they upset they took all that time?

amacca

Water John wrote: »

The Leave Campaign are taking offence that t took EU Leaders all of 38 mins to agree to the deal. They simply don't understand that within the EU, all homework is done.

Seriously? ... Wow.

Water John

The Leave Campaign are taking offence that t took EU Leaders all of 38 mins to agree to the deal. They simply don't understand that within the EU, all homework is done.

Hurrache

First Up wrote: »

Its the only deal they will get.

I know, that's my point.

First Up

Hurrache wrote: »

All EU leaders on their way into the summit so far unanimous that this is the best deal Britain can ever get.

Its the only deal they will get.

Econ__

judeboy101 wrote: »

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

The backstop won't be reopened (Jeez, lots of Irish are really insecure). The only thing that could get reopened is the Political Declaration - and that would only be for a softening of Brexit.

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

All EU leaders on their way into the summit so far unanimous that this is the best deal Britain can ever get.

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

Hurrache

All EU leaders on their way into the summit so far unanimous that this is the best deal Britain can ever get.

Econ__

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's hard to understand how the political system has become so dysfunctional in the UK, the political leadership has been suggesting for well over a year that no-deal is a viable option for the UK but it is clear that there is no posibility that they could choose that course given how horrfically damaging that would be. Given the clear lack of preperation to even try to address the complications of no deal, they can never have seriously considered going down that route.

Unfortunatly it would seem that while the government inercircle are fully aware of the dire circumstances they are facing, parliament has been allowed to toddle along in self imposed ignorence for too long. They will almost certainly vote down the deal on first time of asking. The UK has been carefully building a massive humiliation for itself and it probably cannot be avoided at this stage. Having tried to bluff their way through by building up the threat of no-deal, they will have to come to terms with the fact that they are simply incapable as a country of carrying out the threat. They do not have the ability to walk away with no-deal.

May will have to drive some painful truths home to her MP's. The UK would most likely have to capitulate to any demand the EU cares to make at this point for the sake of getting a deal through, only a glimps of which we have seen with Gibralter. Fortunatly for the UK, the EU is not likely to abuse it's position of power, but that is not likely to make the UK's humilation any easier to bear.

In fairness, most MPs know that the UK can't handle no deal & have vowed to prevent it from happening. The government know this, hence their reluctance to use the prospect of no deal as a threat ahead of the first meaningful vote.

Leroy42

TM has not laid out the real consequences of a no deal at any point. Even the release of the no deal reports was attempted to be as quiet and painless as possible.

They seemed to be thinking that letting on how bad no deal would be would give the EU the advantage (of course EU already knows) and that the MPs would use it as an excuse to fight TM.

So at this point, along with selling the deal, she should be out explaining, truthfully, what the options are and what it really means.

So reject the deal, no transition, no deal scenario and what the impact. It is really odd that a government that is supposedly there for the bettterment of the country is avoiding any move to save the country from this possibility.

But it would appear that they will simply keep no deal as some sort of bogeyman, but without any real details.

TM should use Johnson call yesterday for a no deal minister to lay out, clearly and succinctly, exactly what no deal means and the costs to different regions

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Having tried to bluff their way through by building up the threat of no-deal, they will have to come to terms with the fact that they are simply incapable as a country of carrying out the threat.

I agree that No Deal is not a practical possibility, but just as they may vote No on the only deal in town because This Cannot Happen To Us, they my actually crash out because they can't get their heads around the new reality at all.

If you think they are being humiliated now, wait until they try asking for a deal when the supermarket shelves are already empty.

Imreoir2

Econ__ wrote: »

https://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-6425479/Michael-Gove-backed-hearing-UK-run-drinking-water-DAYS-No-Deal.html

It's hard to understand how the political system has become so dysfunctional in the UK, the political leadership has been suggesting for well over a year that no-deal is a viable option for the UK but it is clear that there is no posibility that they could choose that course given how horrfically damaging that would be. Given the clear lack of preperation to even try to address the complications of no deal, they can never have seriously considered going down that route.

Unfortunatly it would seem that while the government inercircle are fully aware of the dire circumstances they are facing, parliament has been allowed to toddle along in self imposed ignorence for too long. They will almost certainly vote down the deal on first time of asking. The UK has been carefully building a massive humiliation for itself and it probably cannot be avoided at this stage. Having tried to bluff their way through by building up the threat of no-deal, they will have to come to terms with the fact that they are simply incapable as a country of carrying out the threat. They do not have the ability to walk away with no-deal.

May will have to drive some painful truths home to her MP's. The UK would most likely have to capitulate to any demand the EU cares to make at this point for the sake of getting a deal through, only a glimps of which we have seen with Gibralter. Fortunatly for the UK, the EU is not likely to abuse it's position of power, but that is not likely to make the UK's humilation any easier to bear.