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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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PeadarCo

Akrasia wrote:

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

But is that not the whole reason behind opposition to Brexit. Every deal the UK has available is worse than staying in the EU at least from an economic perspective. Its not bad leadership its just the reality of the situation.

For all May's failings her job is a poisoned chalice given how clueless some Brexiters and elements of the UK public appear to be about international trade and the UKs relative position in it. Raabs lack of knowledge of the importance of the Dover Calais sea route being a prime example. Even after the guts of 2 years negotiations its amazing how dismissive certain Brexiters are of certain facts.

EdgeCase

What's not democratic is presenting half truths and lies as if they were facts and asking people to vote on something that they had paid not attention to the deals of.

If this were a signed contract or agreement in a business context and it had been negotiated on that basis, you would have a strong argument to go to court and say that you were mislead and seek to have the contract deemed void. it's totally unreasonable to hold someone to a contract that they did not understand or had insufficient information to make an informed decision about. It's even worse when that information was false or deliberately withheld
(e.g. refusal to do or release proper economic analysis of impacts)

You can't just lie and spin to people and then refuse to allow them to reconsider. I really do not think that the majority of the UK population were presented the facts on this and the way the referendum was conducted was pretty poor.

Also the goalposts were changed after the referendum. I distinctly remember various arguments being made about how the UK would leave the EU while still having full access to the single market and so on. Those have turned out to have been total nonsense. At best it was ill informed, at worst it was deliberately misleading.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gib being tackled through a "separate declaration", which essentially is diplomatic speak for giving Spain a toothless token to keep them quiet:

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1065980725017620481

That might be all they want. I was listening to Tony Connelly's Brexit podcast and it seems that there is an election in one of Spain's regions next week and there is a feeling that the Spanish government is saber ratteling to gain support and that this won't prove to be an insurmountable obstical to a deal.

FreudianSlippers

Akrasia wrote: »

I thought asking people to vote for the same thing twice was undemocratic?

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

It's not undemocratic; but the point to which you're attempting to refer is moot anyway. If the people vote one way on an issue and then the issue is re-addressed and clarified to the public, it is not undemocratic to ask them if, in the light of new facts, they want to make the same decision.

robinph

Akrasia wrote: »

I thought asking people to vote for the same thing twice was undemocratic?

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

But the deal is still better than admitting that you were wrong in their opinion.

megatron989

Roger_007 wrote: »

I find it odd that the hottest issue in the Brexit debate before the referendum, the immigration issue, has hardly featured at all since the referendum. Now the big issues are the pros and cons of the customs union and the single market and trade deals.
If the referendum was rerun, would the debate be an entirely different one?

Yet whenever I see interviews with people on the street (although they often take place in cafes and pubs fyi) the people always mention immigration. They talk complete waffle but it's still the reason for voting Brexit for a lot of people. Lovely people by the look of them.
Has to be said that they are probably picked for their views to add some sexy sauce to the interviews but maybe not... I'm not a doctor.

McGiver

Akrasia wrote: »

I thought asking people to vote for the same thing twice was undemocratic?

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

Care to propose how a better deal can be negotiated given A the red lines ob both sides, especially the UK's side, B the time available, C the fact that there something in existence called Northern Ireland and Good Friday Agreement which both need to be accommodated, and D the current political situation in the UK?

There is no better deal possible.

McGiver

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The EU isn’t wasting any time. Negotiations concluded and this is the best deal the UK will get. The options for the UK close off by the day. They can no longer renegotiate and they are nearly past the point of no return on ability to mitigate worst parts of a disorderly exit.

If the deal is rejected Dec 10th, Sterling will plummet below €1; the EU will kick No Deal plans into gear (and they’re more organised and have much greater resources); and UK companies will initiate contingency plans publicly. Second vote will then pass early January.

Check mate.

A masterful display of unity and process demonstrating how to create and exploit leverages when the stakes are at their highest. All the Telegraph / Brexiteer’s bluster is made to look so childish and inconsequential.

Spot on - game, set, match. Game over.

Fantastic article about all this, playing a very hard ball, exposing what Brexit is about and where it is at. I am happy to see such a frank and blunt article in such reputable paper.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

Akrasia

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The EU isn’t wasting any time. Negotiations concluded and this is the best deal the UK will get. The options for the UK close off by the day. They can no longer renegotiate and they are nearly past the point of no return on ability to mitigate worst parts of a disorderly exit.

If the deal is rejected Dec 10th, Sterling will plummet below €1; the EU will kick No Deal plans into gear (and they’re more organised and have much greater resources); and UK companies will initiate contingency plans publicly. Second vote will then pass early January.

Check mate.

A masterful display of unity and process demonstrating how to create and exploit leverages when the stakes are at their highest. All the Telegraph / Brexiteer’s bluster is made to look so childish and inconsequential.

I thought asking people to vote for the same thing twice was undemocratic?

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

Roger_007

I find it odd that the hottest issue in the Brexit debate before the referendum, the immigration issue, has hardly featured at all since the referendum. Now the big issues are the pros and cons of the customs union and the single market and trade deals.
If the referendum was rerun, would the debate be an entirely different one?

LuckyLloyd

Inquitus wrote: »

So the Vote will be the week after next? and in the meantime we all act like its going to be passed? and when it is defeated they have 2 weeks before Parliament has a 2 week recess for Xmas. So basically we are wasting a month or so on a deal that's holed below the waterline....

The EU isn’t wasting any time. Negotiations concluded and this is the best deal the UK will get. The options for the UK close off by the day. They can no longer renegotiate and they are nearly past the point of no return on ability to mitigate worst parts of a disorderly exit.

If the deal is rejected Dec 10th, Sterling will plummet below €1; the EU will kick No Deal plans into gear (and they’re more organised and have much greater resources); and UK companies will initiate contingency plans publicly. Second vote will then pass early January.

Check mate.

A masterful display of unity and process demonstrating how to create and exploit leverages when the stakes are at their highest. All the Telegraph / Brexiteer’s bluster is made to look so childish and inconsequential.

listermint

kowtow wrote: »

Have to say that despite my own confidence there are very few signals coming out of London that this is going to pass.

The idea that the markets could be used to force the hand for a second vote is a dangerous one - the risk of hard brexit is already largely discounted, and - even if it isn't - the possibility of a second vote in favour of the deal provides some support. The real risk of deliberately spooking the markets is that they won't fall hard until a second vote fails, and then they really will go downhill!

One thing that is notable here - on the Tory side at least - is that few seem to be playing for position or politics. When leavers say this is worse than staying in, they clearly mean it (which doesn't mean they suddenly favour remain!). Parliament is genuinely flummoxed, and people are falling back on very fundamental positions of principle. That's a good thing for democracy, as painful and frustrating as it may seem in the near term.

The risk of a hard brexit is largely discounted....

Yet we have various groups on both sides saying they wont for a deal.

If thats the case then its hard brexit or second referendum.

I dont listen to these excuses of against democracy to have a second vote, Its the very essence of democracy . Anyone arguing against that is a fool.

kowtow

Have to say that despite my own confidence there are very few signals coming out of London that this is going to pass.

The idea that the markets could be used to force the hand for a second vote is a dangerous one - the risk of hard brexit is already largely discounted, and - even if it isn't - the possibility of a second vote in favour of the deal provides some support. The real risk of deliberately spooking the markets is that they won't fall hard until a second vote fails, and then they really will go downhill!

One thing that is notable here - on the Tory side at least - is that few seem to be playing for position or politics. When leavers say this is worse than staying in, they clearly mean it (which doesn't mean they suddenly favour remain!). Parliament is genuinely flummoxed, and people are falling back on very fundamental positions of principle. That's a good thing for democracy, as painful and frustrating as it may seem in the near term.

LuckyLloyd

cml387 wrote: »

I suppose the thinking is that the EU will suffer as much as the UK next March from a crash out, this will give both sides time to prepare.

The EU doesn’t suffer near as much though, that’s the key point Brexiteers have never fully understood.

blanch152

Tabnabs wrote: »

The negotiations have taken place and this is the least worst outcome that has been achieved on both sides. Plan B is hard brexit and Plan C is a remain option (via another referendum). The clock has run out for amendments and repositioning, this is the best deal both sides are going to get, take it or risk the alternative.

The situation looks entirely hopeless with everyone in Parliament agin the negotiations, but May may yet tough it out and keep the bastard child safe enough to cross the line...

There is the rickety bridge over the gorge to somewhere you are not certain of, there is the cliff to fall over and there is turning back to a past you want to leave behind.

May has been herding cats on this one and sometimes they just all escape and you are back to square one.

Inquitus

So the Vote will be the week after next? and in the meantime we all act like its going to be passed? and when it is defeated they have 2 weeks before Parliament has a 2 week recess for Xmas. So basically we are wasting a month or so on a deal that's holed below the waterline....

An Ciarraioch

Gib being tackled through a "separate declaration", which essentially is diplomatic speak for giving Spain a toothless token to keep them quiet:

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1065980725017620481

ancapailldorcha

A pretty shocking tweet from Fraser Nelson of the Spectator today. Normally, I'd be skeptical of claims like this but coming from a free marketeer like Nelson, this is striking:

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1065685014019547136

Iain Duncan Smith is apparently planning to vote against the deal as well:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1065626805221101570

While upto half of the Conservative party's backbenchers:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1065634225951522816

In the meantime, Lord Ashcroft has been polling again:

Support for an informed referendum seems to be gathering steam though from the above, Conservative voters are entrenched in their support of Brexit and will not waver any time soon. Ditto for Leave voters though the other groups surveyed are cause for hope.

Tabnabs

McGiver wrote: »

So basically she has plan A and that's it. There is no plan B and she can't have one.

The negotiations have taken place and this is the least worst outcome that has been achieved on both sides. Plan B is hard brexit and Plan C is a remain option (via another referendum). The clock has run out for amendments and repositioning, this is the best deal both sides are going to get, take it or risk the alternative.

The situation looks entirely hopeless with everyone in Parliament agin the negotiations, but May may yet tough it out and keep the bastard child safe enough to cross the line...

Cato the Elder

McGiver wrote: »

So basically she has plan A and that's it. There is no plan B and she can't have one.

Yes, it's very frustrating, but the fact is she can't give a plan B or it will affect the vote. And she can't pull a Raab and admit the EU is better.

Furthermore, I consider that Carthage must be destroyed.

McGiver

brickster69 wrote: »

PM Interview just now

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1065951831296069633

So basically she has plan A and that's it. There is no plan B and she can't have one.

Imreoir2

EKRIUQ wrote: »

With this new agreement I'm a bit sill confuesed as to what the UK are actually losing

Are the UK leaving all these bodies and will no input at all?
European Parliament
European Council
Council of the European Union
European Commission
Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU)
European Central Bank (ECB)
European Court of Auditors (ECA)
European External Action Service (EEAS)
European Economic and Social Committee (EESC)
European Committee of the Regions (CoR)
European Investment Bank (EIB)
European Ombudsman
European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS)
Interinstitutional bodies

Are UK citizens going to lose
European Health Insurance Card (EHIC)
EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments
Tax agreements in the EU for instance now UK will they have pay huge property taxes in Spain now that there not EU citizens

With this agreement do the UK stop paying to the EU after the divorce settlement.

The UK will lose all of the above unless the future relationship treaty makes specific provision for the UK retaining membership or access. This is possible in some areas, and in others it is not possible, obviously there is nothing short of membership of the EU that would allow the UK membership of institutions like the EU Parliament. The UK will continue paying into the EU for as long as they participate in and get the benefit of those arangements, right now that means until the end of the transition period. If the future relationship is agreed by then, future UK contributions will be determined by that new treaty. If they fail to agree a new treaty then the backstop kicks in and the UK loses access to everything not contained in the backstop and ceases to make any contribution not required by the backstop.

EKRIUQ

With this new agreement I'm a bit sill confuesed as to what the UK are actually losing

Are the UK leaving all these bodies and will no input at all?
European Parliament
European Council
Council of the European Union
European Commission
Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU)
European Central Bank (ECB)
European Court of Auditors (ECA)
European External Action Service (EEAS)
European Economic and Social Committee (EESC)
European Committee of the Regions (CoR)
European Investment Bank (EIB)
European Ombudsman
European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS)
Interinstitutional bodies

Are UK citizens going to lose
European Health Insurance Card (EHIC)
EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments
Tax agreements in the EU for instance now UK will they have pay huge property taxes in Spain now that there not EU citizens

With this agreement do the UK stop paying to the EU after the divorce settlement.

trellheim

EU Army is a political hot potato, and, I suggest, off-topic here as it generates huge debate in its own right.

brickster69

PM Interview just now

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1065951831296069633

megatron989

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I didn't know this. Can you point me to your source for this information?

Thanks.

Is this an AI question? It's like something alexa would ask you.
Look up WW2 on Google, read the wiki, become enlightened. Pretty standard knowledge and not something anyone should be challenging with a trolling 'provide source' reply.
Seriously this thread is going to the dogs with people coming in and just slowing things down with conspiracy rubbish. It's like reality is some kind of opt in affair these days. Same goes for Brexit in general, it's like their are 2 ways to view it. One in reality and one in your chosen happy place where unicorns roam and eggs can be taken out of cakes on a whim.

You've only to read the last 20 pages here to see some of the glaring problems with people's world views and why things in the UK are as they are imo.

First Up

Water John wrote: »

Raab saying that UK would be better staying in EU than this Deal has really fuelled the Remainers.

Mr Raab's education has been speeding up in recent weeks. First he discovered that the Dover-Calais route is important and now he realises that the UK would be better off in the EU than not.

What will he discover next? I can hardly wait.

Zubeneschamali

cml387 wrote: »

Well here's what the new PM (because May will be gone by then) will say to the EU:
"We're going to crash out on WTO terms anyway,it can either be next March or March 2020...your call."

And the EU will say "We double-dog dare you to go in March 2019", and in April 2019 the UK are back begging for emergency food and medicine.

Hard Brexit in March cannot be done. It cannot be done in March 2020 either. It is a fantasy

cml387

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

...but where's the factual support for this view? Other than hard-core Brexiteers, is any serious economist able to support this view?

Well here's what the new PM (because May will be gone by then) will say to the EU:
"We're going to crash out on WTO terms anyway,it can either be next March or March 2020...your call."

MrMusician18

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I didn't know this. Can you point me to your source for this information?

Thanks.

It's an observable reality.