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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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[Deleted User]

DOCARCH wrote: »

Who are their constituents?

Each MP should be representing all the people of their respective constituencies (and not just their brethren!).

There's a pretty big overlap between DUP seats and voting leave no?

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

There's a pretty big overlap between DUP seats and voting leave no?

There is, but not in a constituency like Fermanagh/South Tyrone (that Arlene represents).

EKRIUQ

DOCARCH wrote: »

There is, but not in a constituency like Fermanagh/South Tyrone (that Arlene represents).

But Arlene isn't even a MP

breatheme

EKRIUQ wrote: »

But Arlene isn't even a MP

And her constituency (in Stormont) voted for Remain.

DOCARCH

EKRIUQ wrote: »

But Arlene isn't even a MP

Very true! But she is the party leader.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think they might be above Inkatha, just below the Pre-Vatican II Latin Mass Lunacy party.

It is worth noting that Jacob Rees Mog subscribes to the Pre-Vatican Latin Mass philosophy. His wedding had a Latin Mass I believe. So maybe there is a link there.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

"I think it is fair to say that whether you like or loathe them the DUP are the most representative party of their constituents."

No. They are very unrepresentative of their constituents. They represent their voters only to the detriment of many of their constituents.

"They actually deliver on what they say and do and listen to their voters."

They have delivered nothing. Never mind the fact that a majority in NI voted remain.

"They are not pigs at the trough like so many career politicians in this country."

Ash.

"They are not pigs at the trough like so many career politicians in this country."

Ian Paisley Junior.

Ian Paisley Snr was frequently on the news here in England and personally I always thought it strange that someone wearing a priests collar seemed so full of hatred..As a neutral(hoping for a deal which is good for Ireland and the UK) ,you tend to sit up and listen to Arlene Foster as she does seem very passionate about what she`s saying and to be fair,the majority of the people of NI must think she`s doing a decent job or she would`nt be in power.

L1011

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ian Paisley Snr was frequently on the news here in England and personally I always thought it strange that someone wearing a priests collar seemed so full of hatred..As a neutral(hoping for a deal which is good for Ireland and the UK) ,you tend to sit up and listen to Arlene Foster as she does seem very passionate about what she`s saying and to be fair,the majority of the people of NI must think she`s doing a decent job or she would`nt be in power.

She isn't in power.

She is leader of a non majority party on a non majority side (neither declared side has a majority) who somehow gets treated like she still has the title she lost 20+ months ago

[Deleted User]

The DUP aren't the majority as such. There are more than 2 parties and it operates on a transferrable vote, many unionists may vote UUP and transfer to DUP. She is largely disliked, as are the DUP by a significant amount of people in the North.

kowtow

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is worth noting that Jacob Rees Mog subscribes to the Pre-Vatican Latin Mass philosophy. His wedding had a Latin Mass I believe. So maybe there is a link there.

It did.

charlie14

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'd be interested to know what % didn't identify as either. I know a lot of younger Northern Irish people that I have encountered seem to have an identity that tends to combine both or that is distinctively Northern Irish and just reflects the complexities of the situation up there.

There's a significant population of people up there who are just fed up with the us vs them mentality and it also tends to drive people to leave and settle elsewhere ... https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45804194

I mean it must become psychologically draining to listen to the legacy of that conflict in every aspect of politics all the time.

Brexit is already re-polarising Northern Irish politics in a way that we had assumed was starting to fade and the loud shouting tends to just alienate those who would rather just have a normal life. I would have my doubts that many people in the North see Brexit as much more than an annoyance. Even unionists I've spoken to seem to see it as something being imposed upon them even if they don't have any desire to join a United Ireland they were quite comfortable with the status quo and the direction that things were going.

The results of that poll was based on ethno-nationalism to determine the voting intentions of those who viewed themselves as either nationalist or unionists.
34% of those who identified as unionist and 88% who identified as nationalist favoured Remain.

The % breakdown by party support for Remain/Leave was:
TUV 9/91. DUP 25/75. UUP 42/58. Alliance 83/17. SF 84/16. SDLP 95/5.

Of all those party supporters the UUP would have appeared to be the most balanced on the issue and where some have looked on that as an indication that there are more moderate unionist voters looking for a party to represent their views rather than the brand of unionism of the DUP. Thought it myself up until the 2017 Westminster elections where compared to two years previous the DUP received 36% (an increase of 10.3%) whereas the UUP received 10.3% ( a drop of 5.8%).

Sam Russell

EdgeCase wrote: »

Ireland also has passport checks on entry from everywhere except the UK as it's not on Schengen.

People arriving at Dublin Airport (everyone) has their passport checked (or some other ID like a photo driving licence - even if arriving from SNN.

The UK are quite happy to control illegal immigration through checks by UK employers, landlords, and the NHS. They use other (vile) methods to create a hostile environment to shake out those not entitled to stay (including plenty who are entitled to stay).

BonnieSituation

charlie14 wrote: »

The results of that poll was based on ethno-nationalism to determine the voting intentions of those who viewed themselves as either nationalist or unionists.
34% of those who identified as unionist and 88% who identified as nationalist favoured Remain.

The % breakdown by party support for Remain/Leave was:
TUV 9/91. DUP 25/75. UUP 42/58. Alliance 83/17. SF 84/16. SDLP 95/5.

Of all those party supporters the UUP would have appeared to be the most balanced on the issue and where some have looked on that as an indication that there are more moderate unionist voters looking for a party to represent their views rather than the brand of unionism of the DUP. Thought it myself up until the 2017 Westminster elections where compared to two years previous the DUP received 36% (an increase of 10.3%) whereas the UUP received 10.3% ( a drop of 5.8%).

The problem though is that Westminster elections are FPTP. So we see a more balanced makeup in Stormont for the UUP say and then at Westminster it's like they don't exist because to the vagaries of the system.

And I think that this is why we have people thinking that Arlene is representative of the people of the statelet.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

It would appear that Gove et.al. are going to try and go back to the Barnier well. I am not sure that will end well with TM or with the EU

What is the next step for UK approval here. Assuming there is no successful heave against TM, when do they plan to put it to a vote ?

Three weeks from now I believe. The deal goes to a vote 21 days after it was published.

An Ciarraioch

Strazdas wrote: »

trellheim wrote: »

It would appear that Gove et.al. are going to try and go back to the Barnier well. I am not sure that will end well with TM or with the EU

What is the next step for UK approval here. Assuming there is no successful heave against TM, when do they plan to put it to a vote ?

Three weeks from now I believe. The deal goes to a vote 21 days after it was published.

The week of 5th of December, then.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The week of 5th of December, then.

Yes, though there's talk that the debate could go for days, perhaps 4 or 5, as virtually everyone will want a say.

DOCARCH

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The week of 5th of December, then.

I think 7th is the date of the vote.

Kermit.de.frog

Starting to feel more optimistic about May getting this deal through.

I think the consequences of no deal are just to extreme for most MPs to stomach and despite noises now that in the next couple of weeks many will come around.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't dump off topic Youtube videos.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Starting to feel more optimistic about May getting this deal through.

I think the consequences of no deal are just to extreme for most MPs to stomach and despite noises now that in the next couple of weeks many will come around.

There is the counter theory though that the deal gets voted down and then something dramatic happens in the next few days. It's not like the UK informs the EU the following morning that they're ripping up the agreement : there could even be a further Commons vote on the deal.

DOCARCH

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Starting to feel more optimistic about May getting this deal through.

I think the consequences of no deal are just to extreme for most MPs to stomach and despite noises now that in the next couple of weeks many will come around.

I think it will be down to the wire.

I think in December the deal will be rejected by parliament.

There will be some very minor tweaking of the deal/wording by TM/EU, to save face/put to new vote.

Then, in the New Year, parliament will pass it, as the horrors of no deal become more and more apparent (and as sterling/markets are dropping through the floor!).

charlie14

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The problem though is that Westminster elections are FPTP. So we see a more balanced makeup in Stormont for the UUP say and then at Westminster it's like they don't exist because to the vagaries of the system.

And I think that this is why we have people thinking that Arlene is representative of the people of the statelet.

My point was that from the 2016 referendum vote some, myself included at the time, appear to feel there is support for a more moderate brand of unionism as per the UUP rather than that of the DUP.

That seems a very faint hope imo when you consider the subsequent 2017 Westminster elections compared to the same in 2015 where both were on a FPTP.
DUP increased their vote by 10.3%. The UUP vote decreased by 5.8%

FrancieBrady

charlie14 wrote: »

My point was that from the 2016 referendum vote some, myself included at the time, appear to feel there is support for a more moderate brand of unionism as per the UUP rather than that of the DUP.

That seems a very faint hope imo when you consider the subsequent 2017 Westminster elections compared to the same in 2015 where both were on a FPTP.
DUP increased their vote by 10.3%. The UUP vote decreased by 5.8%

I wonder what would happen if we got an election/2nd ref where it is not a 'them and us' decision. Such as one purely about Brexit and how it affects unionist and nationalist alike. I don't think the DUP would fare at all well given the business community's pronouncements today or the consensus there seems to be in Ulster farming. UUP would thrive I reckon if they backed this deal.

prawnsambo

Bloomberg's Tim Ross is reporting that Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling and Liam Fox are meeting to re-write the agreement over the next week. The bizarreness doesn't stop.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

People arriving at Dublin Airport (everyone) has their passport checked (or some other ID like a photo driving licence - even if arriving from SNN.

The UK are quite happy to control illegal immigration through checks by UK employers, landlords, and the NHS. They use other (vile) methods to create a hostile environment to shake out those not entitled to stay (including plenty who are entitled to stay).

Most illegal immigrants entering the UK are doing so via Dover having hidden in lorries and even using dinghys across the channel so it`s not just a matter of passport checking at airports-also people not leaving when their visa expires is a problem.

Imreoir2

Patser wrote: »

Oh ok, my misreading. So it is just a quick Yes No on May, with little time for soap boxing, a chance for May to gain immunity for a year and a real chance the ERG will be shown as toothless after all their bluster.....

It just gives them 1 weekend in the limelight and then neuters them. That's madness to go nuclear when so weak, unless they really, really believe there's a genuine chance against May.

Strange

What it will do is show how much opposition there is to her deal. If anything like 80+ MP's vote against her, then it will cause a crisis as the deal will be as good as dead.

Frank Bullitt

prawnsambo wrote: »

Bloomberg's Tim Ross is reporting that Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling and Liam Fox are meeting to re-write the agreement over the next week. The bizarreness doesn't stop.

Haven't the EU said that they won't be renegotiating anything?

tuxy

Gintonious wrote: »

Haven't the EU said that they won't be renegotiating anything?

Perhaps rewording rather than re-write.

Kermit.de.frog

prawnsambo wrote: »

Bloomberg's Tim Ross is reporting that Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling and Liam Fox are meeting to re-write the agreement over the next week. The bizarreness doesn't stop.

I would be amazed if the EU reopens negotiations. To them the deal is done.

There is one way out for the hard brexiters though.

They can leave NI completely in the SM and CU and then GB would be free to do whatever it likes...

Would be quickest way to agreement and buyin at Westminister.

An Ciarraioch

If Shropshire is representative of England as a whole, it seems Leavers would rather leave with no deal if necessary:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/15/a-fudge-not-what-we-voted-for-the-brexit-view-from-shropshire