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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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ARNOLD J RIMMER

Peregrinus wrote: »

Labour MPs won't have a vote in a Tory Party confidence-in-the-leadership challenge.

He's talking about the Vote on TM agreement with the EU I believe .

Peregrinus

BoatMad wrote: »

I could even see Labour dissidents supporting her

Labour MPs won't have a vote in a Tory Party confidence-in-the-leadership challenge.

BoatMad

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

I can only see TM winning a vote of confidence.

Reason being that she will be the only candidate.

who else would want to be the leader of the UK during a Hard Brexit / TM Deal / No Brexit.

I wouldn't even think Labour would want to be Ruling until after March 2019

TM will be the scape goat until then.

I could even see Labour dissidents supporting her

Anthracite

BoatMad wrote: »

Irrelevant

The empire largely disappeared economically for the Uk by the end of world war 1 , politically and econically the USA dominated the World scene by then and the sun set on the remnants of the British empire

( by 1905, US pig iron production exceeded the UK for the first time )

Well it's not irrelevant if the UK still had colonies into the 1960s unless you are suggesting that being the number one producer of pig iron determines whether you are an empire or not.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

I can only see TM winning a vote of confidence.

Reason being that she will be the only candidate.

who else would want to be the leader of the UK during a Hard Brexit / TM Deal / No Brexit.

I wouldn't even think Labour would want to be Ruling until after March 2019

TM will be the scape goat until then.

BoatMad

joe40 wrote: »

Does it really matter if May is replaced or not. There will be very little or no scope for further changes from the EU side, so the choice facing the Tories and the HoC is still, This Deal, No deal, GE or peoples vote.

Unless of course they get a new leader that can convince the house to accept the Deal which is counter to the wishes of the MPs calling for her resignation.

And what Tory is going to take that poisoned challice , I don’t see one

BoatMad

Enzokk wrote: »

Funny that the GFA doesn't mention the border but the EU and the UK has just spent 2 years negotiating and that is the one thing most people agree with, that the GFA means NI has to have seperate status to the UK to ensure an open border. They are all doing this because the Irish Government has hoodwinked the EU negotiators and the UK as well. I wish our politicians could have used this ability to tell the EU we didn't have to pay back any money after the GFC, that would have been useful to a lot of people during that time.

Or maybe you are wrong and those that claim the GFA doesn't state there has to be open border is wrong as well?

As for the motion of no confidence in May, even if she survives a vote it undermines her credibility so the damage will be done, even if she survives.

THe Irish gov didn’t hoodwink anyone , the UK from the very outset ( along with the dup) stated it didn’t want any hard border with the republic

Only for the dup propping up the Tories , the issue would have been resolved by leaving NI in the SM , simple , done and dusted ( a solution that could equally be advanced for Scotland )

joe40

Does it really matter if May is replaced or not. There will be very little or no scope for further changes from the EU side, so the choice facing the Tories and the HoC is still, This Deal, No deal, GE or peoples vote.

Unless of course they get a new leader that can convince the house to accept the Deal which is counter to the wishes of the MPs calling for her resignation.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

There would have to be a credible alternative for DUP voters. The UUP would possibly be that alternative, but they've been in the doldrums for a long time. It would be their chance if they have the courage to take it. Having watched what they're pleased to call the opposition across the water at work, I'm starting to think that political courage is an out of date concept.

The problem now for unionism in northern Ireland is that in the rest of the UK they will be seen as 'one and the same' - that odd, archaic entity from Ireland, and they will be ignored and in a lot of instances 'shunned'.
Hugely damaging and in vulgar terms, is what happens when you continually **** in your own bed or bite the hand that feeds.

Enzokk

blanch152 wrote: »

The Irish Government have done magnificently well to create the narrative that the GFA requires an open border.

It doesn't. A hard border would go against the spirit of the GFA, but technically it wouldn't break the GFA. Agriculture is the main area that would require a soft border. Checks on agricultural shipments to the UK from Northern Ireland are not unknown.

There are huge practical issues with a hard border, and there are the "good republicans" to consider, but legally, the GFA doesn't require a soft Brexit.

Funny that the GFA doesn't mention the border but the EU and the UK has just spent 2 years negotiating and that is the one thing most people agree with, that the GFA means NI has to have seperate status to the UK to ensure an open border. They are all doing this because the Irish Government has hoodwinked the EU negotiators and the UK as well. I wish our politicians could have used this ability to tell the EU we didn't have to pay back any money after the GFC, that would have been useful to a lot of people during that time.

Or maybe you are wrong and those that claim the GFA doesn't state there has to be open border is wrong as well?

As for the motion of no confidence in May, even if she survives a vote it undermines her credibility so the damage will be done, even if she survives.

Infini

lawred2 wrote: »

what a nest of vipers

Should rename themselves The Colliseum Party: The knives are always out for those in charge.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely and the people of the UK should be very angry about that selfish and irresponsible alliance. It is not that May and the Tory's weren't told about it.
The DUP and northern Ireland unionism in general will pay a high price for it.

There would have to be a credible alternative for DUP voters. The UUP would possibly be that alternative, but they've been in the doldrums for a long time. It would be their chance if they have the courage to take it. Having watched what they're pleased to call the opposition across the water at work, I'm starting to think that political courage is an out of date concept.

Inquitus

Will the no confidence vote be today? Given MP's have been recalled from their constituencies? or will it be next week?

VinLieger

lawred2 wrote: »

what a nest of vipers

Especially so since not one of them i wager would be willing to step up to the plate.

Look at Mogg when asked if he would put his hat in the ring, "its not my responsibility" literally minutes after initiating a coup

prawnsambo

BoatMad wrote: »

It’s this “ romantic “ nonsense that drives nutters like Rees-Mogg Into thinking Agincourt was last week . Unfortunately his delusions and lies , coupled by the huge amount of mis information spread by the Tory media has convinced a certain gullible section , that the UK can make the “ empire” shine again

Rees-Mogg is not driven by any romantic nonsense. There's very little doubt that he's driven by greed. Let's not forget that coincident with the notion of leaving the EU was the EU's decision to implement a tax avoidance directive. Which directive will come into force next year or at the latest, the following year. Right in the middle of the transition period. So JRM and his ilk have been pushing a no-deal brexit as hard as they can because that's the only scenario where the UK can avoid the avoidance directive.

FrancieBrady

BoatMad wrote: »

Had the DUP not been propping upmthe tories , Ni would have been left in the SM and the GBs hands would have been freer

Absolutely and the people of the UK should be very angry about that selfish and irresponsible alliance. It is not that May and the Tory's weren't told about it.
The DUP and northern Ireland unionism in general will pay a high price for it.

BoatMad

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Those who argued vehemently that an Irish Sea border was not an option have still to come to terms with the fact that it is the only option if the UK is to leave the EU. FG under Varadkar did after Enda had ruled any special status for NI out.

Arlene is going to have to destroy the DUP's relationship with the Tory's (if it isn't already) if she and they are not going to come to terms with it. That Arlene has led unionism down that rabbithole has indeed left unionists 'seething'.
Sammy Wilson's only sthick is to blame the Dublin.

Had the DUP not been propping upmthe tories , Ni would have been left in the SM and the GBs hands would have been freer

Tinder Surprise

rumor is the 48 letter threshold has been reached...May faces a vote of confidence

BoatMad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

George VI was the Emperor of India until 1948.

Irrelevant

The empire largely disappeared economically for the Uk by the end of world war 1 , politically and econically the USA dominated the World scene by then and the sun set on the remnants of the British empire

( by 1905, US pig iron production exceeded the UK for the first time )

Water John

Charlie Haughey survived by 1 vote. I think in the UK if it is a significant number you're generally gone, about one third I'd say.

Water John

Explains why TM was in sort of campaign mode this morning, not a GE but her own job. Not confirmed.

BoatMad

lawred2 wrote: »

what a nest of vipers

Actually , it was speculated on RTÉ , that may has already been given notice by the 1922 committee that the letters are in

However a vote of no confidence isn’t sufficient to remove the leader and I suspect may will go down fighting , she has no other option

lawred2

Water John wrote: »

A reliable source telling The Guardian that the 48 letters are in. Wait to confirm.

what a nest of vipers

FrancieBrady

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You and those like you must be quietly seething at recent events.

Those who argued vehemently that an Irish Sea border was not an option have still to come to terms with the fact that it is the only option if the UK is to leave the EU. FG under Varadkar did after Enda had ruled any special status for NI out.

Arlene is going to have to destroy the DUP's relationship with the Tory's (if it isn't already) if she and they are not going to come to terms with it. That Arlene has led unionism down that rabbithole has indeed left unionists 'seething'.
Sammy Wilson's only sthick is to blame the Dublin.

Water John

A reliable source telling The Guardian that the 48 letters are in. Wait to confirm.

Akrasia

Theresa May was on LBC this morning doing a call in. She was asked about the 350 million for the NHS and she basically doubled down on it. She is a liar and the sooner she goes the better

Zubeneschamali

BoatMad wrote: »

Sadly , it’s not that simple , the Uk has been “ out of empire “ since the end of the first war

George VI was the Emperor of India until 1948.

VinLieger

BoatMad wrote: »

I now believe an extension to article 50 deadlines will be sought , the “ withdrawal deal “ is rubbish anyway , simply moving the “ cliff edge “ to the 1st Jan 2021 . The desl virtually binds the Uk to the principles of the SM and CU for the transistion period . They might as well stay in

At least it would give more time , new GE, referendum , the facts are stark , the Tories cannot and will not resolve Brexit , it’s either a different government or a referendum to remain , that’s the only way to resolve this

I don't think Labour can resolve it, especially when an overwhelming majority of their MP's still think they should remain, they may not be as split as the tories but they are split and unless Corbyn and his anti EU loyalists change their tune I can't see Labour coming together on any kind of deal either.

BoatMad

This, pretty much. We've been in an empire. We've been in the European Union. We know the difference.

Sadly , it’s not that simple , the Uk has been “ out of empire “ since the end of the first war and the “ empire “ is now largely a nostalgic memory , just like all our summers were sunny when we were kids , these “ empire race memories “ are largely false .

It’s this “ romantic “ nonsense that drives nutters like Rees-Mogg Into thinking Agincourt was last week . Unfortunately his delusions and lies , coupled by the huge amount of mis information spread by the Tory media has convinced a certain gullible section , that the UK can make the “ empire” shine again

It’s nonsense , dangerous seditious nonsense to boot

BoatMad

I now believe an extension to article 50 deadlines will be sought , the “ withdrawal deal “ is rubbish anyway , simply moving the “ cliff edge “ to the 1st Jan 2021 . The desl virtually binds the Uk to the principles of the SM and CU for the transistion period . They might as well stay in

At least it would give more time , new GE, referendum , the facts are stark , the Tories cannot and will not resolve Brexit , it’s either a different government or a referendum to remain , that’s the only way to resolve this