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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Zubeneschamali

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The EU has the whip hand now in all eventualities: for if they commit an obstinate Hari Kari of No Deal they'll be back at the negotiating table in a few years cap in hand.

Weeks. They will be back in weeks.

To ask for emergency deals to allow enough food across the channel to feed their population, and enough medicines to stock hospitals and pharmacies, and to allow their exports to land at EU ports, and to allow planes from UK airports to land at EU airports and and and....

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it not arguable that the end result would have been the same no matter which political party was on the UK's side of the negotiating table!?

What could any other party have delivered? Let's say whoever it was didn't engage in chicanery and populist megaphone diplomacy that is the Tory norm and let's say for argument that the most consistent, trustworthy and mannerly negotiating team was sent to Brussels - would the result have been any different? A few words here and there maybe but the EU entered talks with a plan and they are leaving with that plan satisfied.

The false narrative peddled by UK media and rarely challenged by UK politicians is how we got here! That the UK was a member of the EU in name only and that leaving it would be trivial. All they got for membership of the EU was a membership bill.

It isn't solely a Tory thing. All political parties in the UK share their blame in this.

Chickens are coming home to roost.

I see where you are coming from but I disagree.

The Conservative party has effectively been captured by its hard right, epitomised by the ERG. Then there is the DUP.

Were Labour in power, I don't think Jeremy Corbyn would have started by consigning himself to staying within imaginary red lines. I think his priority would have been protecting British jobs and the public sector. I always got the impression that the "Free movement is coming to an end" sort of comments were intended for Northern Labour voters rather than his Momentum base. Momentum favour a People's Vote:

The majority of members of the left-wing Momentum group back a fresh referendum on Brexit, a new survey has found.

53 per cent of people who responded to a major consultation by the organisation said they wanted Labour to commit to holding a fresh vote, either as a top priority or if the party cannot force a general election.

Forty-one per cent said they wanted a public vote “in all circumstances”, while a further 12 per cent said they wanted another referendum “but only if there is no general election”...

The Momentum consultation, which was completed by more than 6,500 people, found that 92 per cent of the group’s members want Labour MPs to vote against whatever deal Ms May brings back from Brussels.

That will add to pressure on the 15 or so Labour MPs who, as revealed by The Independent last month, are considering backing the government.

According to the survey, 82 per cent of Momentum members think Brexit will make things worse for their friends, family and community, while 89 per cent believe MPs should not consider a no-deal outcome to be a viable option.

The two parties have different or even diametric priorities. Labour also might have an easier time in Brussels given than the bile towards the EU emanates from the British right rather than it's left for the most part. I think they would be more willing to concede ground on the ECJ and freedom of movement in order to keep access to the single market for key British industries and those which are politically charged like farming and fishing.

Then again, I could be wrong. The party's divisions might cause it the same paralysis that has gripped the Conservatives and we'd be no better or even maybe worse off.

prawnsambo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Any link lads?

Well it's on now. lbc.co.uk you can listen live.

They'll probably put a clip of that up on the site later. Probably a defining moment for people who voted leave. Certainly surprised me at how suddenly it has dawned on them.

Zubeneschamali

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it not arguable that the end result would have been the same no matter which political party was on the UK's side of the negotiating table!?

No. Labours Six Tests would, on balance, argue for SM participation or Remaining.

Spanish Eyes

First Up wrote: »

I've heard December 14 mentioned.

Thanks. I'll keep an eye out.

Donald Trump

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Bear in mind that we've been here before over Chequers, where 'big beats' (Politicos :rolleyes:) like Johnson and Davis resigned. Resignations don't change anything in of themselves. They've still got to get their letters into 1922; one of them needs to stand; and they need to win. She doesn't strike me as the resigning under pressure type.

Which of them has the balls to step forth and stand? Johnson and Davis didn't. Angry opinion pieces in the Telegraph do not a leadership challenge make. Make yourselves relevant or stop the remonstrating imo.

Resignation means they don't have to vote with the government. If they don't resign, it's a guaranteed vote for May. If they do resign, it's a guaranteed vote against.

alchemist33

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think this will get through. Watching HoC and May doing quite well. Seems to have considerable support.

Unless Labour change their minds or give a free vote, the numbers don't add up to it passing. It seems brexiteers and remainers won't give an inch, with very few saying they need to compromise. Maybe its brinkmanship from everyone and they'll see sense at the eleventh hour, but I doubt it.

First Up

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Anyone know when the Commons vote on the proposed agreement will take place?

I've heard December 14 mentioned.

Spanish Eyes

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Any link lads?

I'm on desktop. But there is an app also.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/

Click listen live James O'Brien, there is a playback feature too.

LuckyLloyd

Bear in mind that we've been here before over Chequers, where 'big beats' (Politicos :rolleyes:) like Johnson and Davis resigned. Resignations don't change anything in of themselves. They've still got to get their letters into 1922; one of them needs to stand; and they need to win. She doesn't strike me as the resigning under pressure type.

Which of them has the balls to step forth and stand? Johnson and Davis didn't. Angry opinion pieces in the Telegraph do not a leadership challenge make. Make yourselves relevant or stop the remonstrating imo.

LuckyLloyd

UsBus wrote: »

Callers into LBC right now are unbelievable.

They voted to leave & now they see what has happened they are in disbelief. One guy broke down crying saying "What have I done"........It's like armageddon over there... And now Michael Gove has gone missing from the benches.......

prawnsambo wrote: »

A couple of callers into James O'Brien this morning, one after the other who voted leave and it's suddenly hit them that there were no unicorns and that they were lied to. One of the strongest pieces of radio I've ever heard. The first guy broke down in tears asking "what have I done to my country?". The second guy so angry at how he was misled, he could barely get his words out but vowing to never vote again. Extraordinary stuff.

Any link lads?

UsBus

prawnsambo wrote: »

A couple of callers into James O'Brien this morning, one after the other who voted leave and it's suddenly hit them that there were no unicorns and that they were lied to. One of the strongest pieces of radio I've ever heard. The first guy broke down in tears asking "what have I done to my country?". The second guy so angry at how he was misled, he could barely get his words out but vowing to never vote again. Extraordinary stuff.

Scary radio to listen to alright...... People are genuinely fearful over there now. I'd say the Conservative party are finished after this. What does that leave them with.....Labour, UKIP....?????

First Up

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think this will get through. Watching HoC and May doing quite well. Seems to have considerable support.

She is putting on a brave face but the criticism from all sides of the house (not least her own) doesn't suggest a successful passage.

Spanish Eyes

Anyone know when the Commons vote on the proposed agreement will take place?

listermint

Any links to this

prawnsambo

A couple of callers into James O'Brien this morning, one after the other who voted leave and it's suddenly hit them that there were no unicorns and that they were lied to. One of the strongest pieces of radio I've ever heard. The first guy broke down in tears asking "what have I done to my country?". The second guy so angry at how he was misled, he could barely get his words out but vowing to never vote again. Extraordinary stuff.

UsBus

Callers into LBC right now are unbelievable.

They voted to leave & now they see what has happened they are in disbelief. One guy broke down crying saying "What have I done"........It's like armageddon over there... And now Michael Gove has gone missing from the benches.......

Zubeneschamali

EKRIUQ wrote: »

And he was the person who has been her negotiator in Europe.

No, he wasn't.

Olly Robbins, a civil servant, has been the actual negotiator. David Davis when Brexit secretary, was officially in charge of negotiations but is lazy and as thick as a brick, he contributed nothing. When he resigned, May took personal responsibility for the negotiations, so that she was in charge and Robbins was on the ground.

Raab had no role, really, except to fly back and forth with messages between May to Robbins.

J Mysterio

I think this will get through. Watching HoC and May doing quite well. Seems to have considerable support.

First Up

An interesting display of 19th century nationalism.

Spanish Eyes

Parliament live TV from the Commons is very interesting right now.

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/fb6dddc6-6e51-49bf-b8ad-133affcd3d27

kowtow

The only slight timing card May still has in her pocket is the unfinished nature of the future declaration on trade etc.

EU have said that they hope to complete this by Tuesday.,

If she can possibly hang on till then and get the worst news out of the way now, will she be sending Gove to Brussels to come back with a sheaf of ambitious forward looking text and change the news agenda?

Gove could yet resign, but I've never been able to read him

Thin straws to be plucking at but that's about her only hope.

ancapailldorcha

Larbre34 wrote: »

You should see her temper when her corn gets stolen.

lawred2 wrote: »

She's probably still bitter about the missing corn

lawred2 wrote: »

too slow

Ray Bloody Purchase wrote: »

The real question that should be asked is does she ever feel lonely around low lying fields?

Cut this out please.

[Deleted User]

Wonder how long Andrea Leadsom will stay? Absolutely no gesture of support or any reaction at all when TM sat down after her statement to the HoC.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Someone at Sky News calls her "an ERG officer", sinister implication presumably intentional.

Well, she's a member of the ERG. And she wants nothing less than a Hard Brexit.

Larbre34

Some good barbs on Twitter to the effect that Trevelyan resigning is the political equivalent of Farrah Fawcett dying on the same day as Michael Jackson - nobody cares or notices....

intellectual dosser

VinLieger wrote: »

Paddy power have it at 2/1 before the end of 2019

Second In/Out referendum by end of 2019 now coming in to 7/4

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

She was always going to go. She makes Mogg look like a softie.

Someone at Sky News calls her "an ERG officer", sinister implication presumably intentional.

[Deleted User]

Suggestions Gove could be appointed Brexit Secretary. He backed TM yesterday.

Nuno

Good explainer video of the arithmetic for the deal to pass through a HoC vote