kuro68k wrote: » The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.
Inquitus wrote: » Gove and Mordaunt could be the next 2, I think that would be the end for May. I think she is being judged too harshly, she messed up handing A50 in when she did, but almost her whole party agreed with doing that. She has put the good of the country first in agreeing a deal with the EU, which is honestly about as good as could be expected, I guess she is unwilling to throw the UK off the hard brexit cliff, and any rightminded PM would be.
ilovesmybrick wrote: » And another, Anne-Marie Trevelyanhttps://twitter.com/annietrev/status/1063013858921594881
Larbre34 wrote: » Deleted post.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » If there is a third resignation within the hour, then the resignations are probably being orchestrated. If that's the case, then then May's government is gone.
Tabnabs wrote: » Micheal Gove (Secretary for Environment, Rural Affairs, and Food) rumoured to be wavering.
prawnsambo wrote: » Can't see Theresa May lasting the day.
kowtow wrote: » It makes one wonder with all the delay at Cabinet yesterday just how close she came to not coming out and making a statement at all.... it really does look as though she barely carried the Cabinet and only then because there was no obvious way out of the mess she had created. There does seem to be a common thread with May of over-bearing micromanagement, under delivery, over reliance on some (poorly) chosen advisers, and undermining of appointed ministers....
Hurrache wrote: » Esther McVey resigned just now too.
Anthracite wrote: » Non-EU immigration to the UK has always exceeded EU immigration, often by a factor of 2 IIRC.
Peregrinus wrote: » She targetted a hard brexit, raising expectations that could not be met, and nailing her head to the mast with absurd "red lines" that proved to be ruinous. The deal she's got is softer than the one she targetted, hence the disappointed expectations of brexiters, but not nearly soft enough to avert much of the harm of Brexit.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » I don't think Fox's attitude would be May's attitude. May is a genuine unionist based on the way she speaks about the 'precious union' and realises there has to be some way of avoiding a hard border to safeguard the union's future. I believe she's pinning her hopes on achieving an open border through a future EU/UK deal. Privately I suspect she would not like NI to be in a different orbit to the UK, but the possibility that it could be looks like it was enough to convince Fox that his plans can be achieved long-term. This is why I think the DUP are playing a dangerous game. A few weeks back the ERG were talking up a possible Super Canada style deal, which hit the rocks due to the fantasy stuff about technology solving the border issue. For most of these ERG types, the border is something they don't care about or understand. With that being the case, are the DUP really unconcerned about toppling a genuinely, passionate unionist like May and potentially have her replaced with a more token unionist figure whose main priority would not be unionist unity, but rather big international deals - with chlorinated chickens and whatnot - that would necessitate NI being pulled closer to the EU sphere and away from the UK sphere? Do they really think a PM Johnson or Gove is going to rebuff a glitzy trade deal with the US that would necessitate such divergence, in order to satisfy 200,000 plus voters in NI, whose influence is gradually going to reduce anyway due to the inevitable demographic changes under way? I think they're making poor long-term calculations, with supporting Brexit being the biggest one of all.
Beechwoodspark wrote: » “No deal” here we come
VinLieger wrote: » Wont happen with Corbyn as leader
LuckyLloyd wrote: » Only the real politicos have tbf. If you're obsessed with the game playing side of politics the 'art of getting to Friday' nonsense there might be some love for how she's managed to hold onto power throughout the process. But as noted on here multiple times before, everything about her Red Lines; triggering of A50; choice of negotiators; negotiating strategy; general election decision: every significant decision she has made has worsened her position at every turn. Eventually the piper had to be paid in the form of a draft withdrawal agreement. Make no mistake: this is a *terrible* deal for the UK. It is far worse than EU membership and the leverage will be with the EU in the coming decade of trade negotiations. I am not in the least surprised by that, but it will send shock-waves through the UK electorate who (however huffy Folkstonian might be to this) have struggled at all stages to grasp the fundamental facts of the situation, largely down to the nature of their media. This is a good thing. It finally lays bare the folly of Brexit. Sure, the Brexiteers will argue that this deal is an abomination but it is the deal on offer. That clarifies this matter a great deal and focuses the coming conversations. So I feel an extraordinary sense of calm from the Irish perspective. This deal may not carry, but given the final public acceptance of it being the best deal on offer it may hasten a second referendum and ultimately this silly English nonsense could well be called off. The EU has the whip hand now in all eventualities: for if they commit an obstinate Hari Kari of No Deal they'll be back at the negotiating table in a few years cap in hand.
Peregrinus wrote: » Nominal wages are rising in the UK, but so is inflation. Real wages growth is practically static. It was running at about 1.8% just before the Brexit referendum, but then slumped to a low of -0.5% (as in, real wages were shrinking) and has now recovered to 0.2%. All in all, it's a dismal performance. This is the complete opposite of the truth, as just noted. Real wages growth was higher before the Brexit referendum than it has been at any time since, and in fact this is in large part due to the rise in inflation which followed the referendum. It could have been averted if the EU wasn't busy turning itself into a low-skilled gig economy. Persistent sluggish wage growth in the UK is linked to the static productivity of the UK labour force, in marked distinction to other EU countries, and this in turn is thought to be due to underinvestment.
Peregrinus wrote: » If May hadn't targetted a hard Brexit, but instead sought to build a middle-ground consensus for a deal that sought to address the concerns of remainers, I believe the UK could have negotiated a much better deal, and had a majority for it in Parliament.
If this deal is indeed rejected by Parliament, then the UK Government must return to the negotiating table to secure a better one.
EKRIUQ wrote: » And he was the person who has been her negotiator in Europe. People have been very kind to Theresa May saying she has a hard position but.. She appointed David Davis Brexit Minister, Boris Johnson Foreign secretary and those majorly backfired. Called a general election not needed. It's her judgement calls that have let her down so far why should her latest call on the Brexit plan differ. MP's can't trust her anymore. I'm of a reminder mind but looking at the draft plan and still taking rules from Europe and signing up to a worse position, surely must be a hit in the gut for other remainers why would anyone want that?
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