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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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EKRIUQ

Ana Shallow War wrote: »

Raab gone

And he was the person who has been her negotiator in Europe.

People have been very kind to Theresa May saying she has a hard position but..

She appointed David Davis Brexit Minister, Boris Johnson Foreign secretary and those majorly backfired.

Called a general election not needed.

It's her judgement calls that have let her down so far why should her latest call on the Brexit plan differ. MP's can't trust her anymore.

I'm of a reminder mind but looking at the draft plan and still taking rules from Europe and signing up to a worse position, surely must be a hit in the gut for other remainers why would anyone want that?

Leonard Hofstadter

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It's almost as if the best deal would be to remain in EU and forget about this terrible political lapse of judgement and collective insanity.

Staying in the EU always was, is, and will be the best deal for the UK.

First Up

Ana Shallow War wrote: »

Panrich wrote: »

A new government or PM will not have enough time to negotiate a better deal.

EU would give an extension

They might extend the transition period but nothing else. Internal politics are a matter for the member states, despite the bleatings you hear about Brussels this and Brussels that.

Peregrinus

Panrich wrote: »

No deal or 2nd referendum are the ultimate choices. A new government or PM will not have enough time to negotiate a better deal.

Ana Shallow War wrote: »

EU would give an extension

Not to negotiate a different deal, they won't. Unless it's a much softer deal.

Leroy42

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I'm of a reminder mind but looking at the draft plan and still taking rules from Europe and signing up to a worse position, surely must be a hit in the gut for other remainers why would anyone want that?

This is what the people voted for, the will of the people. They voted to leave the EU, and as far as practicable TM is delivering the version that she believes causes the least amount of damage to the UK.

murpho999

One minister gone, will another go?

Talks of backbench revolt and no confidence vote in May.

I don't see how she's going to get this through.

Really think this could be the beginning of the end of Brexit.

Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it not arguable that the end result would have been the same no matter which political party was on the UK's side of the negotiating table!?

If May hadn't targetted a hard Brexit, but instead sought to build a middle-ground consensus for a deal that sought to address the concerns of remainers, I believe the UK could have negotiated a much better deal, and had a majority for it in Parliament.

OneEightSeven

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It's almost as if the best deal would be to remain in EU and forget about this terrible political lapse of judgement and collective insanity.

How is it bad judgement and insanity? Wages are already rising due to a decrease of cheap labour flowing into the UK. This is what many people wanted. Inflation was outpacing wage growth and the working class got fed up of their bank accounts being depleted.

This could have been adverted if the EU exempted the UK from free movement of workers which would have shifted the referendum in favour of remain, but they said no.

joe40

If the remainers, or soft Brexit supporters like many Labour MPs are willing to vote against the deal, they must be doing so in the firm belief that a No deal scenario also won't happen.

They must be absolutely convinced that this deal failing will either cause a GE or another vote, so that Brexit can be stopped.

Apart from hardline Tory Brexiteers, and the ideologically Driven DUP surely the idea of "no deal" is catastrophic for everyone else.

Please tell me Labour and Lib Dems, in the final analysis, are not going to seriously risk a "no deal scenario" rather than support this deal.

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

If May hadn't targetted a hard Brexit, but instead sought to build a middle-ground consensus for a deal that sought to address the concerns of remainers, I believe the UK could have negotiated a much better deal, and had a majority for it in Parliament.

But this isn't a hard Brexit - this is very much a soft Brexit

As I see it anyway

First Up

OneEightSeven wrote: »

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It's almost as if the best deal would be to remain in EU and forget about this terrible political lapse of judgement and collective insanity.

How is it bad judgement and insanity? Wages are already rising due to a decrease of cheap labour flowing into the UK. This is what many people wanted. Inflation was outpacing wage growth and the working class got fed up of their bank accounts being depleted.

This could have been adverted if the EU exempted the UK from free movement of workers which would have shifted the referendum in favour of remain, but they said no.

They'll be even more fed up when they lose their jobs because of Brexit but that's another story.

The UK could have restricted immigration from outside the EU any time it wanted, while retaining the enormous benefits of Single Market membership.

Infini

Sterling dropped by 1p in the last few hours. The true endgame of this farce has truly begun. This deal most likely wont pass the divided HoC so the only thing I can see is either a 2nd referendum or a no deal scenario playing out in all its failure.

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

But this isn't a hard Brexit - this is very much a soft Brexit

As I see it anyway

Yes, but its the apparent climb down. When you are promised €100 but given €50, you are disappointed that you lost out on €50 rather than focusing on the €50 you got! Its human nature.

TM went out with her red lines, no deal is better than bad deal. Davis went out claiming everything would be sorted in a few weeks, Germany would fold.

Raab claimed the only real problem was that the EU wasn't engaged enough, that the UK were totally ready and some extra vim and vigour would see it through.

The reality of the deal in front of them is, well reality hitting them.

Someone made the point that the EU should have given in to Camerons demands for end of FOM to avoid Brexit, but we can see now that Brexit is a terrible idea and FOM, given that they already had the laws to curtail it and the EU migration was not a major problem and does not have a lower effect on wages, Brexit seems a total folly just to alieviate a problem that never really existed.

listermint

OneEightSeven wrote: »

How is it bad judgement and insanity? Wages are already rising due to a decrease of cheap labour flowing into the UK. This is what many people wanted. Inflation was outpacing wage growth and the working class got fed up of their bank accounts being depleted.

This could have been adverted if the EU exempted the UK from free movement of workers which would have shifted the referendum in favour of remain, but they said no.

EU do what now?

Stupid comment, the UK government and its department had and have all the tools necessary to stem migration.

They haven't . The UK. No one else

And as for the zero hour jobs and the poverty for actual NHS workers and Police staff. Well that speaks for itself .

Deluded people talk about wage growth and jobs

VinLieger

OneEightSeven wrote: »

How is it bad judgement and insanity? Wages are already rising due to a decrease of cheap labour flowing into the UK. This is what many people wanted. Inflation was outpacing wage growth and the working class got fed up of their bank accounts being depleted.

With wage rises due to lack of cheap labour price rises will quickly follow negating any benefit in increase in wages....

OneEightSeven wrote: »

This could have been adverted if the EU exempted the UK from free movement of workers which would have shifted the referendum in favour of remain, but they said no.

Free movement of workers is intrinsically linked to free movement of goods how do people still not understand this?

Anyway the vast majority of immigration was from ex-empire countries as others have said and nothing to do with the EU's freedom of movement

Patser

1 minister gone, 1 junior minister. I wonder will they stagger out other resignations all morning, in a coordinated way to pile pressure on May.

At least Raab's resignation explains the cancelled trip to Brussels last night.

Peregrinus

OneEightSeven wrote: »

How is it bad judgement and insanity? Wages are already rising due to a decrease of cheap labour flowing into the UK.

Nominal wages are rising in the UK, but so is inflation. Real wages growth is practically static. It was running at about 1.8% just before the Brexit referendum, but then slumped to a low of -0.5% (as in, real wages were shrinking) and has now recovered to 0.2%. All in all, it's a dismal performance.

OneEightSeven wrote: »

This is what many people wanted. Inflation was outpacing wage growth and the working class got fed up of their bank accounts being depleted.

This is the complete opposite of the truth, as just noted. Real wages growth was higher before the Brexit referendum than it has been at any time since, and in fact this is in large part due to the rise in inflation which followed the referendum.

OneEightSeven wrote: »

This could have been adverted if the EU exempted the UK from free movement of workers which would have shifted the referendum in favour of remain, but they said no.

It could have been averted if the EU wasn't busy turning itself into a low-skilled gig economy. Persistent sluggish wage growth in the UK is linked to the static productivity of the UK labour force, in marked distinction to other EU countries, and this in turn is thought to be due to underinvestment.

Tinder Surprise

Whats the chances of a second referendum?

Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

But this isn't a hard Brexit - this is very much a soft Brexit

As I see it anyway

She targetted a hard brexit, raising expectations that could not be met, and nailing her head to the mast with absurd "red lines" that proved to be ruinous.

The deal she's got is softer than the one she targetted, hence the disappointed expectations of brexiters, but not nearly soft enough to avert much of the harm of Brexit.

LeinsterDub

Peregrinus wrote: »

If May hadn't targetted a hard Brexit, but instead sought to build a middle-ground consensus for a deal that sought to address the concerns of remainers, I believe the UK could have negotiated a much better deal, and had a majority for it in Parliament.

I honestly think this is the best they can do. It has always come down to the border and GFA. They can either ignore the GFA and become Singapore or respect the GFA and become a "vassal"

VinLieger

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

Whats the chances of a second referendum?

Paddy power have it at 2/1 before the end of 2019

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

Whats the chances of a second referendum?

I think that will depend if there is a GE and Labour put it on their Mandate and Win.

VinLieger

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

I think that will depend if there is a GE and Labour put it on their Mandate and Win.

Wont happen with Corbyn as leader

LuckyLloyd

EKRIUQ wrote: »

And he was the person who has been her negotiator in Europe.

People have been very kind to Theresa May saying she has a hard position but..

She appointed David Davis Brexit Minister, Boris Johnson Foreign secretary and those majorly backfired.

Called a general election not needed.

It's her judgement calls that have let her down so far why should her latest call on the Brexit plan differ. MP's can't trust her anymore.

I'm of a reminder mind but looking at the draft plan and still taking rules from Europe and signing up to a worse position, surely must be a hit in the gut for other remainers why would anyone want that?

Only the real politicos have tbf. If you're obsessed with the game playing side of politics the 'art of getting to Friday' nonsense there might be some love for how she's managed to hold onto power throughout the process. But as noted on here multiple times before, everything about her Red Lines; triggering of A50; choice of negotiators; negotiating strategy; general election decision: every significant decision she has made has worsened her position at every turn. Eventually the piper had to be paid in the form of a draft withdrawal agreement.

Make no mistake: this is a *terrible* deal for the UK. It is far worse than EU membership and the leverage will be with the EU in the coming decade of trade negotiations. I am not in the least surprised by that, but it will send shock-waves through the UK electorate who (however huffy Folkstonian might be to this) have struggled at all stages to grasp the fundamental facts of the situation, largely down to the nature of their media. This is a good thing. It finally lays bare the folly of Brexit. Sure, the Brexiteers will argue that this deal is an abomination but it is the deal on offer. That clarifies this matter a great deal and focuses the coming conversations.

So I feel an extraordinary sense of calm from the Irish perspective. This deal may not carry, but given the final public acceptance of it being the best deal on offer it may hasten a second referendum and ultimately this silly English nonsense could well be called off. The EU has the whip hand now in all eventualities: for if they commit an obstinate Hari Kari of No Deal they'll be back at the negotiating table in a few years cap in hand.

Anthracite

First Up wrote: »

They'll be even more fed up when they lose their jobs because of Brexit but that's another story.

The UK could have restricted immigration from outside the EU any time it wanted, while retaining the enormous benefits of Single Market membership.

Non-EU immigration to the UK has always exceeded EU immigration, often by a factor of 2 IIRC.

Peregrinus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I honestly think this is the best they can do. It has always come down to the border and GFA. They can either ignore the GFA and become Singapore or respect the GFA and become a "vassal"

They could have become Norway. Or even Norway+. Brexiteers would denounce this as vassaldom, but Brexiteers consider any encounter with reality to be oppressive. The Norwegians - who have twice voted not to join the EU - clearly don't consider it vassaldom; they seem to do very well with it.

LuckyLloyd

Peregrinus wrote: »

If May hadn't targetted a hard Brexit, but instead sought to build a middle-ground consensus for a deal that sought to address the concerns of remainers, I believe the UK could have negotiated a much better deal, and had a majority for it in Parliament.

I completely agree with this analysis. Establish a middle ground soft Brexit position in autumn 2016; start bringing the conversations on SM / CU / NI to the fore and demand unity on a position ahead of triggering A50. It would have forced the loons to try and take control then if they really wanted to, or have them be faced down ahead of the negotiating process. She might have triggered A50 in early 2018 with "red lines" that actually meant something.

First Up

Anthracite wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

They'll be even more fed up when they lose their jobs because of Brexit but that's another story.

The UK could have restricted immigration from outside the EU any time it wanted, while retaining the enormous benefits of Single Market membership.

Non-EU immigration to the UK has always exceeded EU immigration, often by a factor of 2 IIRC.

And I heard some Brexiteer idiots saying they voted to leave "to keep the darkies out". They didn't realise that the "darkies" already in the UK voted leave to keep Europeans out.

Akrasia

EKRIUQ wrote: »

And he was the person who has been her negotiator in Europe.

People have been very kind to Theresa May saying she has a hard position but..

She appointed David Davis Brexit Minister, Boris Johnson Foreign secretary and those majorly backfired.

Called a general election not needed.

It's her judgement calls that have let her down so far why should her latest call on the Brexit plan differ. MP's can't trust her anymore.

I'm of a reminder mind but looking at the draft plan and still taking rules from Europe and signing up to a worse position, surely must be a hit in the gut for other remainers why would anyone want that?

She's also steadfastly refused to hold a 2nd referendum despite knowing for at least a year that she had no hope of getting a deal that she could sell to her own party never mind get passed by the house of commons.

She knows that this 'deal' doesn't satisfy a single brexit voter but she still goes with the line that she has to deliver on 'the will of the people'

She's a disgrace IMO. She has all the leadership skills of a piece of soggy toilet paper.

McGiver

I'm shocked but the abysmal level is of UK journalism and also political discourse.

Everyone and everywhere (except BBC) they talk about a "deal". It's not a deal, just a withdrawal agreement, it will take years to get the deal. There's a huge amount of ignorance and confusion about this.

Sturgeon:

If this deal is indeed rejected by Parliament, then the UK Government must return to the negotiating table to secure a better one.

It's not a deal, and the time is up. I don't know if it's just a political play or ignorance. Renegotiation isn't possible now. It's take it or leave it.