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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it not arguable that the end result would have been the same no matter which political party was on the UK's side of the negotiating table!?

I think you make a very valid point in terms of the deal, in effect the deal is very much what was on offer from the start.

But the loudspeaker diplomacy, the rabid anti-EU sentiment by MPS and ministers, TM's red lines, all served to make people think there was something else out there.

The deal is a shock to the UK as it appears to be terrible, but in effect it is actually pretty decent but it, finally, shows the reality of the the situation they face.

As TM said yesterday, it is this, a No deal or remain.

Panrich

This surely means that the deal is dead. No way will May get this through parliament and she’ll be lucky to survive the day as we will probably have a spate of resignations now to follow.

No deal or 2nd referendum are the ultimate choices. A new government or PM will not have enough time to negotiate a better deal.

First Up

judeboy101 wrote: »

Shelga wrote: »

I’m surprised we’re not seeing more resignations this morning. I wonder if anyone in the cabinet will walk?

Why resign? They have their cake. "an alternative arrangement implementing another scenario is agreed" this is what will replace the "backstop". Nowhere in the document does it specifically define the exact parameters of these arrangements or scenarios. It's vague enough for UK to wriggle out of. I hope ff/sf do not vote for this on the dail.

Well Raab just did.

They won't be wriggling anywhere. There are two parties to the arrangement and both need to be in agreement.

The best the UK can hope for is that the CU is seen to keep trade afloat to a sufficient degree to make the alternative unthinkable. They then settle for their diminished status in their new home in a shed in the EU's garden and fly whatever flags they like on it to make them feel better.

I'm curious as to why you think FF and SF should vote against it.

Leroy42

judeboy101 wrote: »

Why resign? They have their cake. "an alternative arrangement implementing another scenario is agreed" this is what will replace the "backstop". Nowhere in the document does it specifically define the exact parameters of these arrangements or scenarios. It's vague enough for UK to wriggle out of. I hope ff/sf do not vote for this on the dail.

This is the pertinent part of the sentence.

Is agreed. That means the EU must agree to it, so the UK cannot simply walk away.

lawred2

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

Raab has handed in is resignation

https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1062992019449098241

He should have resigned when he realised that Dover was an important trading port.

But ignorance is never seen as a reason for Tories to resign..

See Karen Bradley..

I doubt Theresa May is going to lose too much sleep over that lightweight.

intellectual dosser

What a shame about Raab, I had really believed this Brexit business was kicking into second gear. Despite all the in-fighting in the UK there's a decent deal on the table for all parties in an ultimately crap situation.

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it's worse. While I'm no expert on the Suez crisis, there were reasons to think that Britain had a strong hand in that scenario. David Cameron decided to ditch Britain's privileged position within the EU simply to satisfy the zealots in his party who, surprise surprise are still not satisfied.

Brexit is a crisis of the British establishment's own making. Entirely so. Anyone who read up on the subject beforehand would know how things would pan out though might not expected quite the degree of farce we ended up getting. Even I didn't think the Conservatives would blunder this badly.

Is it not arguable that the end result would have been the same no matter which political party was on the UK's side of the negotiating table!?

What could any other party have delivered? Let's say whoever it was didn't engage in chicanery and populist megaphone diplomacy that is the Tory norm and let's say for argument that the most consistent, trustworthy and mannerly negotiating team was sent to Brussels - would the result have been any different? A few words here and there maybe but the EU entered talks with a plan and they are leaving with that plan satisfied.

The false narrative peddled by UK media and rarely challenged by UK politicians is how we got here! That the UK was a member of the EU in name only and that leaving it would be trivial. All they got for membership of the EU was a membership bill.

It isn't solely a Tory thing. All political parties in the UK share their blame in this.

Chickens are coming home to roost.

McGiver

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote:

Raab has handed in is resignation

Fantastic, about time.

prawnsambo

judeboy101 wrote: »

Why resign? They have their cake. "an alternative arrangement implementing another scenario is agreed" this is what will replace the "backstop". Nowhere in the document does it specifically define the exact parameters of these arrangements or scenarios. It's vague enough for UK to wriggle out of. I hope ff/sf do not vote for this on the dail.

You are yet again misunderstanding the deal. Deliberately so I'd have to assume, bearing in mind that you were called on this stuff yesterday, proven wrong and walked away without acknowledging that fact.

listermint

A graph of where the voting is assumed to go

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1062986192113819651?s=20

Peregrinus

Ana Shallow War wrote: »

Raab gone

"I cannot support the deal that I helped to negotiate."

Beechwoodspark

“No deal” here we come

devnull

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

Raab has handed in is resignation

She's toast.

And the deal is too.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

Raab gone

kub

Just listening to latest reports on Morning Ireland there and it seems that the official line from the Labour party is that this is a bad deal.
Granted no deal was going to be good but will that support that May requires from Labour be there now in the HOC ?

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Raab has handed in is resignation

https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1062992019449098241

ancapailldorcha

cml387 wrote: »

What is becoming obvious I believe to many in the UK is the level of the humiliation that has been heaped on Britain. As bad as Suez, if not worse.

I think it's worse. While I'm no expert on the Suez crisis, there were reasons to think that Britain had a strong hand in that scenario. David Cameron decided to ditch Britain's privileged position within the EU simply to satisfy the zealots in his party who, surprise surprise are still not satisfied.

Brexit is a crisis of the British establishment's own making. Entirely so. Anyone who read up on the subject beforehand would know how things would pan out though might not expected quite the degree of farce we ended up getting. Even I didn't think the Conservatives would blunder this badly.

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

Why resign? They have their cake. "an alternative arrangement implementing another scenario is agreed" this is what will replace the "backstop". Nowhere in the document does it specifically define the exact parameters of these arrangements or scenarios. It's vague enough for UK to wriggle out of. I hope ff/sf do not vote for this on the dail.

"Another scenario" would be either of the two alternatives to a backstop that the UK and the EU agreed back in December 2017 - either a trade deal or magic technology which will protect North-South co-operation and avoid a hard border. The UK can't rely on this to "wriggle out" of the backstop, since neither of these other scenarios can be implemented except by arrangements agreed between EU and UK.

If the UK does want to avoid the backstop the WA offers a mechanism for doing so, which is to agree extension of the transition period. But this can only be done once, and only until a stated date.

Peregrinus

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well if it has to make the EuCo on the 25th, then it will have to be in the next week or so.

No. It goes to EuCo first. So consideration by Westminster will be some time after that.

judeboy101

Shelga wrote: »

I’m surprised we’re not seeing more resignations this morning. I wonder if anyone in the cabinet will walk?

Why resign? They have their cake. "an alternative arrangement implementing another scenario is agreed" this is what will replace the "backstop". Nowhere in the document does it specifically define the exact parameters of these arrangements or scenarios. It's vague enough for UK to wriggle out of. I hope ff/sf do not vote for this on the dail.

cml387

The ConservativeHome website (arch leaver) is saying that this deal must be backed.
On Radio 4 this morning the website owner Andrew Feldman said that it's just too late now for any alternative. The time to dump May was back in July after Chequers when Boris jumped.

What is becoming obvious I believe to many in the UK is the level of the humiliation that has been heaped on Britain. As bad as Suez, if not worse.

prawnsambo

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

When is the Vote in the HoC on the deal?

Well if it has to make the EuCo on the 25th, then it will have to be in the next week or so. Current estimates reckon May will need the support of Labour (or other party) rebels to get it through.

This tweeter has been keeping tally of the likely votes she has

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

NI Minster has resigned.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/15/brexit-deal-theresa-may-takes-agreement-to-parliament-politics-live?page=with:block-5bed2527e4b0bb700a72d301#block-5bed2527e4b0bb700a72d301

Some MP said yesterday that this might be the strategy today, resignations through the ranks all day increasing the pressure on May. If we get as far as the likes of Leadsome, then she is gone in his opinion.

Shelga

LeinsterDub wrote: »

NI Minster has resigned.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/15/brexit-deal-theresa-may-takes-agreement-to-parliament-politics-live?page=with:block-5bed2527e4b0bb700a72d301#block-5bed2527e4b0bb700a72d301

I’m surprised we’re not seeing more resignations this morning. I wonder if anyone in the cabinet will walk?

LeinsterDub

NI Minster has resigned.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/15/brexit-deal-theresa-may-takes-agreement-to-parliament-politics-live?page=with:block-5bed2527e4b0bb700a72d301#block-5bed2527e4b0bb700a72d301

ARNOLD J RIMMER

When is the Vote in the HoC on the deal?

Muscles Schultz

Dymo wrote: »

I've read a lot since the paper was released and I wonder how a lot of this is going to go down in Europe,it looks like the UK has been given a lot of cake.

• still have access to the SM for goods

• will have special access for services

• won't pay into the EU

• Fisheries and border control are under UK watch

• Supreme court is the highest court in the land for non EU matters

Not sure what you are reading but that is mostly incorrect.

Peregrinus

Dymo wrote: »

I've read a lot since the paper was released and I wonder how a lot of this is going to go down in Europe,it looks like the UK has been given a lot of cake.

• still have access to the SM for goods

Limited access. They can mimimise the barriers to access by keeping their goods regulatory regime aligned to the EU's, so the price of getting minimal restrictions is bing a rule taker on product regulation.

Dymo wrote: »

• will have special access for services

• won't pay into the EU . . .

Yes, they will. 39 bn for the agreed transition period, and a further 10 bn for each year for which it is extended.

• Fisheries and border contr

Dymo wrote: »

ol are under UK watch

• Supreme court is the highest court in the land for non EU matters

Supreme Court is the highest court for non-EU matters right now. Why would you expect that to change?

ARNOLD J RIMMER

lawred2 wrote: »

I've lived in Germany and didn't show one piece of ID the whole time. What are you on about?

I lived in Germany for 10 years. Never asked for ID

Dymo

I've read a lot since the paper was released and I wonder how a lot of this is going to go down in Europe,it looks like the UK has been given a lot of cake.

• still have access to the SM for goods

• will have special access for services

• won't pay into the EU

• Fisheries and border control are under UK watch

• Supreme court is the highest court in the land for non EU matters