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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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devnull

May's former adviser, Nick Timothy, has had a dig at his former boss in the Telegraph.

Of course, British compromises were inevitable, but the proposal presented to Cabinet is a capitulation.

Worse, it is a capitulation not only to Brussels, but to the fears of the British negotiators themselves, who have shown by their actions that they never believed Brexit can be a success.

This includes, I say with the heaviest of hearts, the Prime Minister.

He also suggested that they should raise the stakes by issuing threats towards the European Union.

With the stakes raised so high, the Government should be prepared, at last, to use all its leverage, including Britain's contribution to European security.

joe40

Just listening to the leader of the lib dems and a labour spokesperson say that both parties will vote against this deal because they want a people's vote.
Maybe i'm missing something but is that not incredibly foolhardy or risky. They seem to think a no deal scenario will never happen, so Tories will be forced to go to the people.
This despite Teresa May saying there will be no vote and Corbyn not supporting one.
Are both parties been delusional.

Itssoeasy

I find it funny that the hard brexit crowd before the referendum were all about being the leaders of the process to leave the EU. What happens the night of the vote ? A good number of them(I can't remember the number right now) signed a letter begging David Cameron to stay on a PM. He then said "good luck lads sort this **** show out yourselves" (not actual quote btw) and resigned.

My point is if they were so eager to be the great British leader who delivered brexit and be hailed as a British hero why didn't they bloody all go for the vacant job ? I'm guessing it's because they haven't enough stones between the lot of them to do it. The hurler on the ditch is a very easy thing to do. You can't get hit sitting on the ditch sure.

I mean JRM and Boris Johnson for jaysus sake. If I got the two of them in a lucky bag, I'd ask for another one. JRM is the 18th century version of the DUP with a bit more polish and a posh accent. And how Boris ties his shoes in the morning I still haven't worked out, unless of course it's all an act by them. I found his comment for the first time in 1000 years the British parliament won't be able to make laws or whatever it was just brilliant, if wrong as the Danes best the English in a battle in 1016 so what is Boris on about exactly ?

hill16bhoy

J Mysterio wrote: »

What happens next in that scenario? Could the Tories possibly agree on a successor?

A majority of Tory MPs backed Remain in the referendum.

If the deal is voted down and May resigns (she would surely have no choice if it is rejected) and it becomes a straight choice between No Deal and Remain, national survival instincts could suddenly kick in for those Tory remainers and somebody like Justine Greening or Jo Johnson could unexpectedly become PM and either get Article 50 suspended in parliament, or persuade the EU to temporarily extend it in order to have a second referendum, which Remain would win.

FrancieBrady

It's ramping up fairly quickly.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062831927231741953

charlie14

joe40 wrote: »

Just listening to the leader of the lib dems and a labour spokesperson say that both parties will vote against this deal because they want a people's vote.
Maybe i'm missing something but is that not incredibly foolhardy or risky. They seem to think a no deal scenario will never happen, so Tories will be forced to go to the people.
This despite Teresa May saying there will be no vote and Corbyn not supporting one.
Are both parties been delusional.

If they vote in favour they are stuck with it. Voting against something will have to give (referendum or GE) as it would be a crash out otherwise.
Don`t know what the Lib Dem angle is other than their voters would skin them alive voting for it rather than pushing for at least a referendum. Labour are probably looking at a GE.

J Mysterio

hill16bhoy wrote: »

A majority of Tory MPs backed Remain in the referendum.

If the deal is voted down and May resigns (she would surely have no choice if it is rejected) and it becomes a straight choice between No Deal and Remain, national survival instincts could suddenly kick in for those Tory remainers and somebody like Justine Greening or Jo Johnson could unexpectedly become PM and either get Article 50 suspended in parliament, or persuade the EU to temporarily extend it in order to have a second referendum, which Remain would win.

It remains to be seen whether Remain is on offer (from the EU). Still wouldnt solve the problem of now hopelessly divided country.

devnull

The Sun has came out with the most anti headline of them all, in typical Sun fashion

J Mysterio

Unfortunate for May to be booeed as she gave that speech. There always seems to be something to go wrong during her 'big moments'.

ArmaniJeanss

J Mysterio wrote: »

It remains to be seen whether Remain is on offer (from the EU). Still wouldnt solve the problem of now hopelessly divided country.

I have no doubt that Remain is 100% on offer at all times.

joe40

Just listening to the leader of the lib dems and a labour spokesperson say that both parties will vote against this deal because they want a people's vote.Maybe i'm missing something but is that not incredibly foolhardy or risky. They seem to think a no deal scenario will never happen, so Tories will be forced to go to the people.This despite Teresa May saying there will be no vote and Corbyn not supporting one.Are both parties been delusional.

charlie14 wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

Just listening to the leader of the lib dems and a labour spokesperson say that both parties will vote against this deal because they want a people's vote.
Maybe i'm missing something but is that not incredibly foolhardy or risky. They seem to think a no deal scenario will never happen, so Tories will be forced to go to the people.
This despite Teresa May saying there will be no vote and Corbyn not supporting one.
Are both parties been delusional.

If they vote in favour they are stuck with it. Voting against something will have to give (referendum or GE) as it would be a crash out otherwise.
Don`t know what the Lib Dem angle is other than their voters would skin them alive voting for it rather than pushing for at least a referendum. Labour are probably looking at a GE.

I'm just worried because they seem to be of the opinion that a "no deal" just can't happen. I would love to believe that, but with the Tories I'm just not sure.
I'd probably be ****e at this negotiating lark.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I have no doubt that Remain is 100% on offer at all times.

I doubt it tbh, there's no way the EU can allow a "sorry old bean, never mind all that two years, tally ho, let's carry on" - a "soft remain" if you will.

BlitzKrieg

charlie14 wrote: »

Strange take on it by the Express. No deal or no Brexit where they are reporting May saying no deal and the UK may stay in the EU

some did read a part of her speech where she said the uk might not leave the EU at all instead of no deal brexit as a threat that if her deal doesnt get accepted she'll sink brexit as a whole or back a 2nd referendum

Folkstonian

Ana Shallow War wrote: »

I doubt it tbh, there's no way the EU can allow a "sorry old bean, never mind all that two years, tally ho, let's carry on" - a "soft remain" if you will.

Why not, out of interest?

tuxy

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

some did read a part of her speech where she said the uk might not leave the EU at all instead of no deal brexit as a threat that if her deal doesnt get accepted she'll sink brexit as a whole or back a 2nd referendum

I think the way she put it was a little confusing but that was my understanding also.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

Folkstonian wrote: »

Why not, out of interest?

because then the opportunity is there for other countries to basically hold the EU to ransom for 2 years any time they feel a bit put out about something, then just dial back at the last minute, it would be turmoil.

J Mysterio

May explicitly said a number of times and repeated tonight - No second referendum (under her watch).

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

they are going to allow opposition parties to vote on amendments before the "meaningful vote".

What amendments, and wtf are they going to do with these amendments, EU will just two finger them surely.

Atlantic Dawn

With NIRL access to EU and UK markets with this deal does that not give business up there massive advantage over those down here as they can source goods with less or no tariffs?

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

With NIRL access to EU and UK markets with this deal does that not give business up there massive advantage over those down here as they can source goods with less or no tariffs?

that's what the SNP are giving out about, NI is getting a better deal then them.

It's also what the DUP are giving out about, they are getting a better deal than everyone else and they'll take it over their dead bodies.

Shelga

I still cannot believe what an absolutely insane, self-inflicted mess the UK is in at the moment. There really does not seem to be any scenario that will unite the country.

I change my mind every half hour, from thinking it will pass the HoC to thinking, general election and/or second referendum. Is there even time to do all of these things before March 29th, and if not, and they don’t accept May’s deal, they will just crash out?

Mr.Nice Guy

For me the most interesting aspect of today was the news that Liam Fox, the International Trade secretary, is seemingly supporting this agreement. If the UK were to find itself in a customs arrangement for the long term then he wouldn't be able to do many of the international deals he's been pushing for years now, notably the US one.

The fact he doesn't seem alarmed about this suggests to me that the Tory leadership would now be prepared to leave NI even tighter within the EU's orbit at some stage down the line in order to strike those deals abroad; and I understand this is permissible under the flexibility of the Withdrawal Agreement.

So perhaps the DUP have eroded all goodwill. The sniping at May, and throwing their weight around towards the Tories, have had consequences as Arlene Foster would say.

I've always suspected if it came down to a choice between trade, and solidarity with NI unionists, that the latter would be shafted. It's the Tory way.

charlie14

joe40 wrote: »

Just listening to the leader of the lib dems and a labour spokesperson say that both parties will vote against this deal because they want a people's vote.Maybe i'm missing something but is that not incredibly foolhardy or risky. They seem to think a no deal scenario will never happen, so Tories will be forced to go to the people.This despite Teresa May saying there will be no vote and Corbyn not supporting one.Are both parties been delusional.
I'm just worried because they seem to be of the opinion that a "no deal" just can't happen. I would love to believe that, but with the Tories I'm just not sure.
I'd probably be ****e at this negotiating lark.

Both the Lib Dems and Labour have their behinds covered. This for them is a Tory negotiated mess and they see where they can make a bit of hay on the possibility of a crash out

I don`t know about negotiations, but I wouldn`t mind playing you in a few hands of poker. What size shirt do you take.:)

BoatMad

I read through the Draft deal , certainly during the transition period, in effect virtually nothing changes , The Uk remains in effect inside the Single Market

Given a final trade deal could take years and years , I suspect the " transition " period will go on for years by " mutual agreement", because the alternative is to end the transition arrangement without any trade deal , i.e. a final hard brexit

Bizarre outcome for the UK.

The backstop arrangement doesnt enter in force during the transition period , as to what happens to NI in the context of a final trade deal , who knows , either its a NI backstop , in essence leaving it in the SM/CU ( and what then Scotland ) or the whole of the UK continues to remain in effect in the SM

what TM has negoiated in this deal , is.... remain in the EU for the transition period while we now get a trade deal , hark the sounds of cans being kicked down the road

ArmaniJeanss

Ana Shallow War wrote: »

I doubt it tbh, there's no way the EU can allow a "sorry old bean, never mind all that two years, tally ho, let's carry on" - a "soft remain" if you will.

It goes back to the underlying concept of the EEC/EU as a force for peace and stability on the continent, letting them change their mind and welcoming them back into the club is consistent with that. Being a net contributor is also a help.

I think the 'names' in the EU (and the prime ministers of the big countries) have generally been united in a 'no-one actually wants you to leave' message over the last 2 years.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I've always suspected if it came down to a choice between trade, and solidarity with NI unionists, that the latter would be shafted. It's the Tory way.

It's not just that, NI is a huge drain on the UK money pool, they'd be well rid of it.

[Deleted User]

J Mysterio wrote: »

May explicitly said a number of times and repeated tonight - No second referendum (under her watch).

Still interesting though that instead of the 2 scenarios oft repeated: ‘a deal or no deal’, we now have a 3rd: ‘no Brexit’ straight out of TM’s mouth. Apparently those that want a 2nd referendum have got a big lift from it. Meanwhile Fiona Mitchell, RTE’s London correspondent, in a debate on BBC’s Newsnight doesn’t believe this deal will make it through the HoC.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

pretty ABC explainer about NI on BBC News right now, absolutely shocking that BBC need to do this for it's own citizens, and speaks volumes as to how much Great Britain actually knows or cares about them.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Still interesting though that instead of the 2 scenarios oft repeated: ‘a deal or no deal’, we now have a 3rd: ‘no Brexit’ straight out of TM’s mouth. Apparently those that want a 2nd referendum have got a big lift from it. Meanwhile Fiona Mitchell, RTE’s London correspondent, in a debate on BBC’s Newsnight doesn’t believe this deal will make it through the HoC.

Nobody on the panel seemed to think it would.

J Mysterio

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

For me the most interesting aspect of today was the news that Liam Fox, the International Trade secretary, is seemingly supporting this agreement. If the UK were to find itself in a customs arrangement for the long term then he wouldn't be able to do many of the international deals he's been pushing for years now, notably the US one.

The fact he doesn't seem alarmed about this suggests to me that the Tory leadership would now be prepared to leave NI even tighter within the EU's orbit at some stage down the line in order to strike those deals abroad; and I understand this is permissible under the flexibility of the Withdrawal Agreement.

So perhaps the DUP have eroded all goodwill. The sniping at May, and throwing their weight around towards the Tories, have had consequences as Arlene Foster would say.

I've always suspected if it came down to a choice between trade, and solidarity with NI unionists, that the latter would be shafted. It's the Tory way.

Thats it. Find agreement and buy some time, then jettison NI down the line - trigger the backstop to the backstop.