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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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badtoro

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So, the big question is where does this leave the Irish government ? Have Leo varadkar and Simon Coveney done well on behalf of the country or not ? Or does it matter as it looks likely that the HoC more than likely won't vote this through.

I wouldn't be a fan of the present government but I think we have to acknowledge that the Government and DFA have done well here.

I'd hold on another while. There was celebrating last December too.

EdgeCase

I can't see this getting through the House of Commons to be perfectly honest. It's a worst-of-both-worlds compromise that reflects the ridiculous reality of what they're trying to do.

The Brexteers sound unhappy about it and the Remainers seem equally unhappy.

New referendum seems to be about the only solution to this.

keane2097

gunny123 wrote: »

The eu use us as a pawn more like, they are not interested in tiny countries like us, remember the way were treated in the nice and lisbon referendums, and then the bail out ? We were just a stick used to beat the brits with.

Yawn.

MrMusician18

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So, the big question is where does this leave the Irish government ? Have Leo varadkar and Simon Coveney done well on behalf of the country or not ? Or does it matter as it looks likely that the HoC more than likely won't vote this through.

I wouldn't be a fan of the present government but I think we have to acknowledge that the Government and DFA have done well here.

gunny123

blackcard wrote: »

He was very clear in his support of Ireland's position. Some people have done a lot of good work in getting the EU to back us

The eu use us as a pawn more like, they are not interested in tiny countries like us, remember the way were treated in the nice and lisbon referendums, and then the bail out ? We were just a stick used to beat the brits with.

am i bovvered

I’m just trying to get a better understanding of the document.
There was a lot of comments here mentioning that the EU had shafted us, am i correct in thinking that this position is now false. Now that people have studied the wording and hearing MBarniers press conference.

Thanks

Enzokk

I have not read or am going to read the text so I am going off my twitter feed.

For the backstop I have this tweet.

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1062796853744467969?s=19

DOCARCH wrote: »

Will be interesting to see what Michael Gove has to say.

If he walks, then WA is very likely to go quickly down the tubes. If he stays/supports TM, then WA may survive (....for a bit at least).

I also wonder what game he is playing, especially after reading this,

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1062796791853301763?s=19

Itssoeasy

So, the big question is where does this leave the Irish government ? Have Leo varadkar and Simon Coveney done well on behalf of the country or not ? Or does it matter as it looks likely that the HoC more than likely won't vote this through.

Itssoeasy

blackcard wrote: »

Hilarh Benn stating that Labour will propose a number of amendments to the current proposals. Seriously? Does he expect the EU to restart negotiations? If the current proposals are rejected, the only options are a no deal brexit or to remain.

This isn't a bill going through the HoC where parties very often make amendments though so that's a stupid thing to suggest.

blackcard

First Up wrote: »

Barnier press conference very interesting - and clear.

He was very clear in his support of Ireland's position. Some people have done a lot of good work in getting the EU to back us

charlie14

blackcard wrote: »

Hilarh Benn stating that Labour will propose a number of amendments to the current proposals. Seriously? Does he expect the EU to restart negotiations? If the current proposals are rejected, the only options are a no deal brexit or to remain.

Only proposing them with an eye to a GE would be my guess.

First Up

Barnier press conference very interesting - and clear.

Mr.Nice Guy

It was mentioned a few days ago by the British press that there would be an arbitration panel.

Turns out there will be, but...the ECJ will be binding over it.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062803227052253188

blackcard

Hilarh Benn stating that Labour will propose a number of amendments to the current proposals. Seriously? Does he expect the EU to restart negotiations? If the current proposals are rejected, the only options are a no deal brexit or to remain.

EdgeCase

It seems to preclude any 3rd party trade deals too

Article 3.2 wrote:

Under no circumstances may the United Kingdom:
(a) apply to its customs territory a customs tariff which is lower than the Common Customs Tariff for any good or import from any third country; or
(b) apply or grant in its customs territory tariff preferences to any good on the basis of rules of origin that are different from those governing the granting of such preferences to the same good by the Union in its customs territory.

That would go down very badly with the Brexiteers, as it effectively removes any possibility of alternative deals that aren't paralleled in the EU.

devnull

Talk now from Beth Rigby, deputy political ed at Sky News, that almost 10 members of the cabinet were against the plan.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1062797500355108864

Sounds like she may have squeezed through by the smallest of margins and it was on a knife-edge, which would back-up what I said an hour or so ago.

Tinder Surprise

Points 5 and 6 sound awfully like a border down the Irish sea.

devnull

Protocol relating to NI and Ireland of Island

Best endeavours to solve it through a future agreement

If not ready by JULY 2020, could extend the transition for more time.

If at the end of this time, still not there, the backstop will kick in.

In backstop, create UK and EU Customs union including NI.

NI will remain in line rules of single market to avoid hard border, UK would apply EU customs code in NI,

NI Economy retains unfettered market access to the UK. At the UK's request, will apply rules of single market.

In interests of UK, Ireland and NI. Single Customs territory, no fees or tariffs.

for competition to be open fair,made agreements on state aid, competition and taxation, social environmental standards to create a level playing field.

Patser

devnull wrote: »

Financial agreements entered into by the 28 will be honoured by the 28.

Governance of withdrawal agreement, resolution of conflicts in agreement will go to arbitration, where it is related to the EU law, the EU Court of Justice will play it's role.

So UK has to keep paying into EU, and obey by its rules but will have no say in them. I can see Brexiteers hammering that point home.

I noticed a lot of chatter earlier about fishing rights, particularly as regards Scotland, which could suddenly become another new sticking point as well.

Akrasia

page 304
" that this Protocol is based on the third scenario of maintaining full alignment with those rules of the Union's internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement, to apply unless and until an alternative arrangement implementing another scenario is agreed,
NOTING that, in accordance with Article 132 of the Withdrawal Agreement, the transition period may be extended by mutual consent,...."

goes on to say what the agreed position on NI and the relationship between the UK, NI and the single market is on page 307 and it ends on page 330. It's long so won't post it all here

Here's the review at the end that summarises the backstop can be removed

If at any time after the end of the transition period the Union or the United Kingdom considers that this Protocol is, in whole or in part, no longer necessary to achieve the objectives set out in Article 1(3) and should cease to apply, in whole or in part, it may notify the other party, setting out its
reasons.

Within 6 months of such a notification, the Joint Committee shall meet at ministerial level to consider the notification, having regard to all of the objectives specified in Article 1. The Joint Committee may seek an opinion from institutions created by the 1998 Agreement. & /en 330 If, following the consideration referred to above, and acting in full respect of Article 5 of the
Withdrawal Agreement, the Union and the United Kingdom decide jointly within the Joint Committee that the Protocol, in whole or in part, is no longer necessary to achieve its objectives, the Protocol shall cease to apply, in whole or in part. In such a case the Joint Committee shall address
recommendations to the Union and to the United Kingdom on the necessary measures, taking into account the obligations of the parties to the 1998 Agreement.

devnull

Barnier Speaking now.

EU Citizens in UK and UK Citizens in EU will have the same status as before and will be able to be joined by family members throughout their lifetime.

Financial agreements entered into by the 28 will be honoured by the 28.

Governance of withdrawal agreement, resolution of conflicts in agreement will go to arbitration, where it is related to the EU law, the EU Court of Justice will play it's role.

UK will leave 29th March 2019, transition period until the end of December 2020, agreed to preserve current situation with reference to internal market, customs union and union policy, rights, policies and obligations.

Transition period can be extended by joint agreement.

charlie14

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nor can I. It doesn't satisfy anyone.

Hard Brexiteers of all stripes, including Jeremy Corbyn will oppose it as it will constitute vassal status.

Remainers such as myself are still hoping the fell project will be binned, ideally by a People's Vote though that seems unlikely.

In fairness even if I was a UK Remainer I would have difficulty voting to accept that deal.
Best to hope for at this stage is a People`s vote to remain, (unlikely as you say), or a GE with a pro EU Labour which is also unlikely with Corbyn.
It really is a mess.

Still think she could have cut NI lose with full EU compliance and avoided a UK CU that the UK will be tied to forever. Thus getting a deal that would have had a better chance of being accepted by the HoC and an orderly withdrawl other than a crash out that is highly likely barring a miracle HoC vote.

Mr.Nice Guy

Think this is the key bit for us on pg 307:

The objective of the Withdrawal Agreement is not to establish a permanent relationship
between the Union and the United Kingdom. The provisions of this Protocol are therefore intended
to apply only temporarily, taking into account the commitments of the Parties set out in Article
2(1).

The provisions of this Protocol shall apply unless and until they are superseded, in whole or in
part, by a subsequent agreement

It is 'intended' that it apply only temporarily. In other words, that's the hope. No issue with that wording.

And provisions apply "unless and until" a better agreement comes along.

This sounds encouraging.

Tinder Surprise

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062796310473048065

If initial rumors are to believed..Northern Ireland will remain in this backstop state indefinitely even after a deal for UK mainland agreed at a later date.

Cant see the Unionist agreeing to that

Akrasia

Gintonious wrote: »

585 pages...and I can't imagine that its a big page turner either.

CTRL - F
Backstop = 1 mention page 302
"RECALLING the Union's and the United Kingdom's intention to replace the backstop solution on Northern Ireland by a subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing;"

It's harder to ctrl - f 'alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of ireland on a permanent footing'

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062796310473048065

Frank Bullitt

585 pages...and I can't imagine that its a big page turner either.

Spanish Eyes

A little light reading...

The draft agreement

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/files/draft-agreement-withdrawal-united-kingdom-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-european-union-and-european-atomic-energy-community-agreed-negotiators-level-14-november-2018_en

Patser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She's some woman to be fair. Most would have lost their minds by now.

Straight from all that to meet Arlene Foster by 8.30. Another lovely, cosy chat to finish off her day.

FrancieBrady

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062794205637066752