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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Mr.Nice Guy

lawred2 wrote: »

What does Large annexe on level playing field mean then?

My sense is it means that there will be plenty of detail in the text to ensure the UK doesn't seek to differentiate itself from the rest of the bloc's general standards, which was a big concern the EU was said to have.

trellheim

jungle drums says a speech from no 10 soon

joe40

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dup-conservatives-emails-civil-servants-brexit-deal-confidence-supply-agreement-a8633896.html

Hopefully, this gets over the line but she had to face down the DUP.

kowtow

trellheim wrote: »

jungle drums says a speech from no 10 soon

Feeling a bit painful this delayed cabinet.

This really is a good deal from an EU / Irish perspective.

Very little to recommend it to either cabinet or parliament. I'm not sure that I would vote for it!

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1062769554345082880

End of line for TM? And yes I know we've been here a dozen times before

charlie14

McGiver wrote: »

CU allows to do FTAs, as does EEA. EFTA has their own FTAs. The key point here is that if you are EEA, you have to align regulations with the EU and if you are in alignment, your FTAs with third parties hence are also aligned with the EU standards and regulations.

So UK won't be able to do FTAs with parties which significantly differ in their regulatory regime or significantly alter/downgrade their own regulatory regime either. That's the point the ultra-free-marketeers Brexiteers are concerned about, they wouldn't be able to do low-tax low-regulatory haven, Singapore on Thames.

That was my reading of it too. So effectively there are no deals they can do that will be of any more benefit than they already have as members of the EU. Not exactly what any Leave supporters believed they were voting for.

Not that that breaks my heart, but it is a limbo with a slow roasting fire thrown in.

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

My sense is it means that there will be plenty of detail in the text to ensure the UK doesn't seek to differentiate itself from the rest of the bloc's general standards, which was a big concern the EU was said to have.

That's it exactly : a large section devoted to there being a level playing field (to protect the EU's interests, not the UK's)

Strazdas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1062769554345082880

End of line for TM? And yes I know we've been here a dozen times before

Who knows? The next five hours or so will be fascinating, to hear the language used by all concerned and the mood music.

charlie14

kowtow wrote: »

Feeling a bit painful this delayed cabinet.

This really is a good deal from an EU / Irish perspective.

Very little to recommend it to either cabinet or parliament. I'm not sure that I would vote for it!

Great deal for us, but in all fairness if I was British and an ardent Remainer I could not vote for it.
Cannot see either this deal or May surviving.

kowtow

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1062769554345082880

End of line for TM? And yes I know we've been here a dozen times before

To finish TM off would require both Brexiteers and Remainers to gang up on her.

Either one can force the start of a leadership process but I'm not sure that one side or the other has the numbers on it's own.

Question is would the anger be sufficient on all sides just to eject her .. and make the leadership a proxy battle for - say - hard Brexit vs very soft (or even second ref.?) ??? ...

10000maniacs

Not looking good for May. The Beeb are reporting that the Brexiteers are calling for a no confidence vote Tomorrow. (Edit: Sorry didn't see LensterDubs post)

Kalyke

The end is nigh for TM. She could conceivably be gone by the weekend....Or the 9 0 clock news!

Kermit.de.frog

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not looking good for May. The Beeb are reporting that the Brexiteers are calling for a no confidence vote Tomorrow. (Edit: Sorry didn't see LensterDubs post)

She'll win. Alternative is chaos.

Hurrache

trellheim wrote: »

jungle drums says a speech from no 10 soon

In place of the planned press conference.

Leroy42

Trigger a leadership contest to what end? Does anyone think the likes of Johnson or Davis or JRM want any hand or part in this?

Johnson and Davis in particular know what they are dealing with and do they really want to be the No deal PM?

charlie14

kowtow wrote: »

To finish TM off would require both Brexiteers and Remainers to gang up on her.

Either one can force the start of a leadership process but I'm not sure that one side or the other has the numbers on it's own.

Question is would the anger be sufficient on all sides just to eject her .. and make the leadership a proxy battle for - say - hard Brexit vs very soft (or even second ref.?) ??? ...

Well she cannot go back to the EU looking to change this deal so if it fails to pass and she isn`t ousted then it will be a hard Brexit. Even if it is questionable at this stage if the EU would listen to another Tory leader.

GE and a Labour PM might have a chance ?

trellheim

Well she cannot go back to the EU looking to change this deal so if it fails to pass and she isn`t ousted then it will be a hard Brexit. Even if it is questionable at this stage if the EU would listen to another Tory leader.

GE and a Labour PM might have a chance ?

Political judgment. GE would likely see her back again - no obvious replacement and no wish from anyone to pick up the poo stick until its done

charlie14

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She'll win. Alternative is chaos.

It has been chaos since the referendum result.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

I think May has had enough. Negotiated as far as she could but knows it will fail.

She doesn't want to lead a no deal brexit. She will resign as PM and watch the brexit unfold from the sidelines.

Kinda like Cameron resigning after referendum as he didn't have the heart to deliver it.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1062769554345082880

End of line for TM? And yes I know we've been here a dozen times before

I said the above yesterday. Maybe she wants out and a vote of no confidence plays into her personal agenda. She never seemed to want a brexit and only did it because Boris bottled it.

charlie14

trellheim wrote: »

Political judgment. GE would likely see her back again - no obvious replacement and no wish from anyone to pick up the poo stick until its done

Then if it was a GE and she is back would the EU re-open negotiations with her ?
Cannot see it myself.

Hurrache

kowtow wrote: »

To finish TM off would require both Brexiteers and Remainers to gang up on her.

Well neither side are happy with the deal so it's not that far fetched.

joe40

If this doesn't pass the only way to avoid crashing out in march will be a change in government.
As someone who works in the north but lives in the south this is getting very worrying. For me personally a sterling crash would be a disaster, same for many people and businesses.

PeadarCo

kowtow wrote:

Question is would the anger be sufficient on all sides just to eject her .. and make the leadership a proxy battle for - say - hard Brexit vs very soft (or even second ref.?) ??? ...

At this stage what would be the point unless the UK decides on a Brexit position that is acceptable to the EU what's the point in changing leader. The deal sounds a bit like what you would expect. The UK leaves the EU but the economic reality forces them to stay close to the EU. The EU is in a far far stronger position negotiations WISE and a change of leader doesn't change that, it arguably makes the UK position weaker. They have to wait for a leadership vote to restart negotiations while the clock keeps ticking towards a hard Brexit.

Harry Palmr

There are enough head bangers in the Tory party to bring her down

To trigger a vote of confidence, at least 15 per cent of Tory MPs must write to the 1922 Committee chair Graham Brady requesting one

hill16bhoy

It would be tremendous craic if the Brexiteers were successful in getting rid of May, but instead of getting Boris Johnson as her replacement, got Jo Johnson instead.

kowtow

charlie14 wrote: »

Well she cannot go back to the EU looking to change this deal so if it fails to pass and she isn`t ousted then it will be a hard Brexit. Even if it is questionable at this stage if the EU would listen to another Tory leader.

GE and a Labour PM might have a chance ?

I know what you mean but nothing in the Tory leadership process leads to a General Election as far as I can see.... unless TM resigned and nobody was willing to replace her!

This is interesting because it really is a question of principle over politics for a lot of these MP's.... which is as it should be. One wonders whether they would eject TM on a question of principle and let events take their own course. Given the unpalatable choices on offer, with no quick fix, I could see several doing just that.

Akrasia

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Politically, as you say, it would be hard in the UK and in the EU. The only case I can imagine is where parliament cannot agree on a Brexit deal, the deadline is approaching and No Deal is looming - nobody bar a few fringe loonies wants a no deal crashout in March, so if we get to March without a deal, Parliament might panic and "temporarily" withdraw A50 to stave of the Four Horsemen of the Brexocalypse.

Then they go back to arguing, and nobody ever actually gets around to activating A50 ever again.

I can't see the EU agreeing to 'temporarily withdraw' article 50. If there is even a hint that this is a stalling tactic so they can continue to undermine the EU from within, then this would be a non starter.

The UK will be allowed to remain on the basis that they are in for the long term. The last thing the EU needs is the UK filibustering and and vetoing everything knowing that they're going to be out of the EU in a few years.

kowtow

hill16bhoy wrote: »

It would be tremendous craic if the Brexiteers were successful in getting rid of May, but instead of getting Boris Johnson as her replacement, got Jo Johnson instead.

Well it happened to Labour!

Mr.Nice Guy

If May goes, her chief negotiator Olly Robbins presumably follows suit since he's loathed by Brexiteers, and so all the work that has been done up to now would be undone. I can't see the EU bothering to work with PM Davis or PM Johnson on whatever fanciful alternative they would cook up.

We'd basically be looking at No Deal vs People's Vote as the UK's remaining options.

charlie14

Harry Palmr wrote: »

There are enough head bangers in the Tory party to bring her down

According to the ERG they have more than enough signed and ready to go for some time.