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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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cml387

Strazdas wrote: »

It strikes me that the Cabinet may well refrain from voting down the deal today knowing full well the Parliament will do it for them instead.

The idea that a cabinet would sign off on a deal knowing that come the end of December it would be voted down by parliament beggars belief.

Water John

It is not the UK's Cabinet job to read what Parliament may or may not do.
Nobody knows how Parliament will vote.

First Up

cml387 wrote: »

The idea that a cabinet would sign off on a deal knowing that come the end of December it would be voted down by parliament beggars belief.

What really beggars belief is that UK politics are in such a mess that there is no deal that any Cabinet would sign off on that will get through parliament.

lawred2

cml387 wrote: »

The idea that a cabinet would sign off on a deal knowing that come the end of December it would be voted down by parliament beggars belief.

cabinets put legislation to parliaments all the time - for the legislation to be defeated.

that's how it works

Strazdas

cml387 wrote: »

The idea that a cabinet would sign off on a deal knowing that come the end of December it would be voted down by parliament beggars belief.

This could actually happen. The whole of British politics is effed up at the moment and people being duplicitous and hiding from the truth and reality (the Cabinet might surprise me though today by throwing out the deal).

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

cabinets put legislation to parliaments all the time - for the legislation to be defeated.

that's how it works

I think what cml is saying is that it would be bizarre for the cabinet to supposedly support the deal, whilst secretly thinking (and perhaps even hoping) that Parliament will chuck it out. That's what could well happen though.

Inquitus

Even Blair says this is an abject Capitulation, and in most respect he's right, it ties them to a worst position than they find themselves in today, with no say on the rules, less benefits, and less access to the SM.

Blair says May's Brexit deal 'a capitulation'
And here is a quote from the Tony Blair speech this afternoon. He described the deal, on the basis of what has been reported about it, as a “capitulation”. He said:

Nothing can disguise the nature of the deal [Theresa May] has chosen, if reports of it are true. This deal isn’t a compromise, it’s a capitulation.

The withdrawal agreement will keep us tied to EU trade policy until there is an end established by ‘joint consent’ - in other words, the EU has a veto.

It is coated in heavy fudge, but that is the inedible biscuit beneath the coating.

Blair also said that the proposals had united him and Boris Johnson in “unholy alliance”, adding:

We agree this is a pointless Brexit in name only which is not the best of a bad job but the worst of both worlds. In the cause of ‘taking back control’ we lose the control we had.

It is not just Boris Johnson who has described the Brexit deal as the worst of both worlds. Justine Greening, a Tory pro-European also opposed to the deal, has used exactly the same phrase to describe it.

Kermit.de.frog

Wait for the text to be published.

The devil will be in the detail.

charlie14

lawred2 wrote: »

cabinets put legislation to parliaments all the time - for the legislation to be defeated.

that's how it works

There isn`t any option not to put it to parliament, but if there are cabinet resignations this evening I can see it being a pointless exercise.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

I think what cml is saying is that it would be bizarre for the cabinet to supposedly support the deal, whilst secretly thinking (and perhaps even hoping) that Parliament will chuck it out. That's what could well happen though.

well I suppose I wouldn't put such Machiavellian shenanigans beyond the Tories if I'm honest

An Ciarraioch

And they aren't taking back control of their fishing rights, either:

http://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062733284675936256

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Wait for the text to be published.

The devil will be in the detail.

In fairness,

Your a man for wild post speculation.

This is a new change in tac for ya :P

J Mysterio

Here's an interesting one :pac:

Trump 'berates' Theresa May after she calls to congratulate him on midterm elections

President grills PM on Brexit and complains about trade during foul-tempered conversation

Spook_ie

Deleted Post

Beaten to the punch earlier

Zubeneschamali

LeinsterDub wrote: »

There isn't no management of migration of workers within the EU. Workers must be able able to support themselves after 3 months of moving to a country

That is control of migration of unemployed people, not workers.

Zubeneschamali

Ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey

Penny Mordaunt sounds like a Harry Potter villain who is duelling Mathemagics teacher Esther McVey.

Zubeneschamali

Inquitus wrote: »

it ties them to a worst position than they find themselves in today

It bears repeating that every single possible brexit leaves them worse off than they are now, so it is not a surprise that Mays deal does.

Water John

On the basis of what we know, from a UK perspective it's nuts. Basically fully tied in, paying for it and no say. If they sign up for it I won't be complaining.

That Deal and Remain should in a Ref, only fair.

First Up

Water John wrote: »

On the basis of what we know, from a UK perspective it's nuts. Basically fully tied in, paying for it and no say. If they sign up for it I won't be complaining.

That Deal and Remain should in a Ref, only fair.

They don't have that option. Its that deal or no deal.

Zubeneschamali

First Up wrote: »

They don't have that option.

Oh, I think if they announced the whole thing was a stupid mistake and they wanted to withdraw A50, the EU would heave a sigh of relief.

With perhaps a Stern Warning that next time they invoke A50, the EU will skip straight to "Retract A50 or Leave with No Deal" as the only options in negotiations.

Rhineshark

Cabinet meeting extended to either 6 or 7pm.

Bet it's fairly spicy in there at the moment.

Zubeneschamali

Rhineshark wrote: »

Bet it's fairly spicy in there at the moment.

I am picturing glum silence from the ranks as May delievers a meaningless word-salad "very clear" speech.

They are screwed, and the death march into vassalage has begun.

Water John

Remain is the third option.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

On the basis of what we know, from a UK perspective it's nuts. Basically fully tied in, paying for it and no say. If they sign up for it I won't be complaining.

That Deal and Remain should in a Ref, only fair.

I was thinking the same.

This deal is plainly nuts in that they gain nothing, pay full whack, and are caught in a perpetual negotiation of a trade deal with the EU and no chance to agree trade deals with anyone else.

The only saving grace is that it is a Red White and Blue Brexit with Blue Passports.

A referendum that was this deal or Mad Max makes no sense. This Deal or Remain is a better and more realistic option.

Alternatively, the 'meaningful vote' could be cast as this choice - vote for this or the Gov will look to cancel Art 50 and we remain in the EU. No referendum necessary - it was a big mistake fuelled by illegal activity by Leave.eu and foreign interference.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Oh, I think if they announced the whole thing was a stupid mistake and they wanted to withdraw A50, the EU would heave a sigh of relief.

With perhaps a Stern Warning that next time they invoke A50, the EU will skip straight to "Retract A50 or Leave with No Deal" as the only options in negotiations.

There's a bit more to it than that. Every one of the EU 27 would have to agree to the retraction and you can bet your house that some of them would put a hefty price on it.

But I think its inconceivable that the current HoC could get to the point where even presenting such a referendum to the electorate would be agreed. We would need not just a GE but also the fragmentation and re-constitution of the political parties.

That is going to happen but not before next March.

First Up

Water John wrote: »

Remain is the third option.

Not as things stand it isn't. A50 has been triggered and cancelling it is not a simple process - either legally or politically..

Water John

Not sure what difficulty would be with the legal end. Letter from TM to EU President Tusk.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

Not as things stand it isn't. A50 has been triggered and cancelling it is not a simple process - either legally or politically..

There's no specific text on withdrawing an Article 50 notice. But it has been said at EU level that they think it's possible. Lord Kerr (who wrote it) said he thought it was possible too. I suspect that it would require unainmous approval from the EU 27.

Zubeneschamali

First Up wrote: »

Not as things stand it isn't. A50 has been triggered and cancelling it is not a simple process - either legally or politically..

Legally, it is very straightforward - the Article does not say it can't be retracted, so if the UK retracts it and the EU is cool with that, there is no issue. No doubt crackpots would appeal, but no court is going to eject an unwilling UK from an EU that wants them to stay.

Politically, as you say, it would be hard in the UK and in the EU. The only case I can imagine is where parliament cannot agree on a Brexit deal, the deadline is approaching and No Deal is looming - nobody bar a few fringe loonies wants a no deal crashout in March, so if we get to March without a deal, Parliament might panic and "temporarily" withdraw A50 to stave of the Four Horsemen of the Brexocalypse.

Then they go back to arguing, and nobody ever actually gets around to activating A50 ever again.

First Up

Water John wrote: »

Not sure what difficulty would be with the legal end. Letter from TM to EU President Tusk.

And the agreement of every EU member.