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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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judeboy101

UK wide backstop with a review clause. No mention anywhere of NI specific backstop. Very worrying, even MaryLou worried it might only be temporary.

prawnsambo

flatty wrote: »

I can't for the life of me see why she wouldnt put it to the country.

There's no guarantee that the same result wouldn't happen again. Most favourable poll I've seen puts remain at 54%. Now that's a clear majority, but I'm pretty sure that similar numbers were recorded before the last one. And nothing has changed in the way they run these things. So it will be lies and misinformation filling the airwaves and people getting their backs up because y'know it's "undemocratic".

I think Tory remainers still have nightmares about referendums.

Imreoir2

Mezcita wrote: »

Pound on the rise. Curiouser and curiouser...

Surely with a vote not looking likely to pass it should be going the other way?

It was not certain that we would get to this stage. This is a vital step for a no-deal Brexit to be avoided. The next step might fail, but this is a step closer to a deal and that is what the market is reacting to. If the deal does not get past cabinet then expect the pound to fall sharply.

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

UK wide backstop with a review clause. No mention anywhere of NI specific backstop. Very worrying, even MaryLou worried it might only be temporary.

Reports suggest that the backstop contains NI specific elements and that the wording "unless and untill" remains in the text. We will have to wait for the detail but it seems to me that this is not the compromise the Brexiteers wanted.

EdgeCase

Just as a point of clarification: In Ireland we've a representative democracy too and the Oireachtas is capable of making decisions other than where they conflict with the constitution, in which case we have a referendum.

Ireland doesn't actually use direct democracy like Switzerland, other than to change the constitution. We don't have referenda as part of the normal legislative process at all and power rests with the Oireachtas.

It just so happened that a number of European treaties were conflicting with our constitution because they were making fundamental changes to structure of government issues or pooling sovereignty on areas that were specified as matters for the Oireachtas or the Irish courts, thus we had to have referenda.

The major difference in the UK is their constitution is not a single written document, rather it's just a collection of statutes passed by parliament and conventions that have been established over time by custom and precedent. It's only a sort of vague framework that's largely based in Common Law concepts. So, basically the fundamental difference is that in the UK there's nothing stopping the Parliament from changing the constitution by just passing a piece of law that fundamentally alters it.

It's a very flexible, but rather weak, form of constitutional law.

There was absolutely no constitutional requirement whatsoever to hold a referendum in the UK, nor is there any constitutional or customary requirement to even pay any attention to the outcome of such a vote.

If anything, by taking this referendum so seriously, one could argue that the UK is potentially creating a legal precedent that could end up being used to argue that there's a constitutional basis for direct democracy in the British system, purely based upon how seriously they are taking the result of this referendum. I am fairly confident that if this referendum stands exactly as is, in a few years time you could easily have someone take a case to the courts in the UK demanding a referendum on any fundamental piece of legislation of national importance based on this having become a constitutional concept.

It would be a very interesting case to take.

Inquitus

Mezcita wrote: »

Pound on the rise. Curiouser and curiouser...

Surely with a vote not looking likely to pass it should be going the other way?

It's not a surprise, we have passed the first "Test". An agreement has been reached in principle and May is taking it forward to the next "Test", Cabinet and a Parliamentary vote. A deal is slightly more likely as we have moved a step forwards in the process, hence sterling has risen.

Kermit.de.frog

Government seems happy enough...

https://twitter.com/ShonaMurray_/status/1062438656676413445

Spook_ie

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The negotiators have agreed a text. It's now up to the 28 governments to form an agreement.

QM or Unanimous vote?

Mr.Nice Guy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Government seems happy enough...

Hopefully this is the case. Loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson is suggesting otherwise but I'd be sceptical of this:

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1062423123193139200

A lot of smoke and mirrors going on. Plays into the familiar DUP tactic that if things seem bad for us, it's even worse for them.

EdgeCase

I'd say that's very unlikely. The Irish Government, unlike certain other governments I can think of a the moment, is not really prone to having 'fits' of anger.

You'd be more likely to get a rather dispassionate, technical analysis of the situation as it stands than any kind of ranting from Dublin.

An expression of 'disappointment' perhaps would be about as strong as it would go these days.

The DUP seem to imagine that the world is as highly strung as the extremes of Northern Irish politics.

Imreoir2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Hopefully this is the case. Loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson is suggesting otherwise but I'd be sceptical of this:

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1062423123193139200

A lot of smoke and mirrors going on. Plays into the familiar DUP tactic that if things seem bad for us, it's even worse for them.

Jamie Bryson is a fool. If he is hearing the Irish government is unhappy, then we can rest assured that the Irish government is entirely satisfied.

kowtow

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Hopefully this is the case. Loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson is suggesting otherwise but I'd be sceptical of this:

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1062423123193139200

A lot of smoke and mirrors going on. Plays into the familiar DUP tactic that if things seem bad for us, it's even worse for them.

Hopefully our Government is "having a fit"

For everyone to be happy enough to do a deal, everybody has also got to hurt a bit.

So far nobody has actually seen it, and everybody is taking a chance to complain.

That's as good a start to a contract exchange as I've ever seen.

EdgeCase

What's more interesting to me is the DUP is seemingly starting to squeak under pressure for some reason, which would lead me to believe that either the agreement has gone against their point of view, or the the agreement is about to fail, in which case we just have to plug away a coming up with something that works.

There's no point in having a 'fit'. We are where we are, or rather they are up North.

The only people I've seen having 'fits' are the DUP and hardline Brexiteers in England. Everyone else seems to be perfectly calm and trying to work through the mechanics of coming up with a solution.

An Ciarraioch

Peston suggests it's basically as outlined last week - UK In CU, NI remaining in SM also:

http://facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2209151979409535/

Frank Bullitt

I want them to interview this woman again in a year. She openly admits that she didn't know what she was voting for...

Sam Russell

Will the UK continue to pay into the EU budget while remaining the CU?

The €45 billion is for past commitments, so what do they pay for the 'level paying field' costs?

I assume all import tariffs go to the EU.

Imreoir2

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062408935049715712

Given that the Irish Government has been closely engaged in the process, it would be bizzare if they were having a very private fit over the text agreed.

lawred2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062408935049715712

Given that the Irish Government has been closely engaged in the process, it would be bizzare if they were having a very private fit over the text agreed.

how would the DUP have any sort of line into Leinster House?

Paully D

Cabinet being called in one at a time apparently.

I’m sure it’ll be something like a “have you seen this file that has been put together on you, you wouldn’t want that to get out would you, so start backing me” type of chat.

Imreoir2

Aaaaaaaand the DUP is gone. Sammy on RTÉ saying that the DUP certainly won't support the deal.

Rhineshark

It seems a bit childish even by their standards but is it possible Westminster is briefing the DUP that the Irish go is having kittens to make them figure they got their way..?

It's not going to work for more than a hour if so.

Nody

Imreoir2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062408935049715712

Given that the Irish Government has been closely engaged in the process, it would be bizzare if they were having a very private fit over the text agreed.

Or simply the more likely answer being that DUP is setting up (or being set up) with the excuse to approve the deal "because the Irish government is having a fit over how bad it is". The fact it's a fit due to laughing so hard does not needs to be said out loud but it does gives them their credible reason towards local voters on why they agreed to the deal.

devnull

DUP have released a statement

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1062451464180785155

As you can imagine, what you'd expect from Arlene and co.

Can't see how May will keep her job for much longer, question is who will bring her down, no shortage of willing people.

Anthracite

Gintonious wrote: »

I want them to interview this woman again in a year. She openly admits that she didn't know what she was voting for...

Her view will not have changed, even if they are smashing open each others' skulls for a snack.

Hurrache

The peasant Brendan O'Neil doing the press review on Sky News tonight, those with HD may see the veins in his temples pulse in anger.

Inquitus

devnull wrote: »

DUP have released a statement

As you can imagine, what you'd expect from Arlene and co.

Can't see how May will keep her job for much longer, question is who will bring her down, no shortage of willing people.

That's the end of that then!

serfboard

Rhineshark wrote: »

It seems a bit childish even by their standards but is it possible Westminster is briefing the DUP that the Irish go is having kittens to make them figure they got their way..?

That's eactly what I thought - the DUP have to be made to believe that "Themuns" don't like it, so it must be good for "Usuns"!

Nody

devnull wrote: »

Can't see how May will keep her job for much longer, question is who will bring her down, no shortage of willing people.

Because even UK politicians such as Reese are not stupid enough to want to be PM before April 1st to ensure they can clearly blame May for the chaos. Come 1st of April and I'd put very long odds on May being around; until then though she's about as safe as it gets.

Mr.Nice Guy

Not so subtle dig at May in Foster's statement.

"No unionist Prime Minister could argue that such a deal is in the national interest."

charlie14

Just listening to Tony Connelly on RTE News. Seems the only backstop is an all UK CU. If there isn`t an "unless and until" clause then we are in trouble here.