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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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devnull

f Theresa May survives the next few days she'll do extremely well.

When I heard she got a deal, before I heard any reaction to it, the only question I had in my mind, was which side would she annoy the most, that would essentially force her out,

It was always going to be like this, whatever deal she got someone or other would bring her down following it.

The way some people are acting is like a deal is agreed and it's a big step forward, there is a long, long, long way to go yet.

Mr.Nice Guy

Irish cabinet is meeting tomorrow to consider the draft Withdrawal Agreement according to Tony Connelly.

prawnsambo

Boris has basically called himself a liar. All that talk of taking back their sovereignty and there it was all the time, down the back of the sofa.

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1062401033073291264

kowtow

In some ways the Cabinet arithmetic is more interesting than the Parliamentary arithmetic.

You need to cast your mind forward to the Tory leadership contest..when it comes, which it surely will. This, after all, is only a divorce agreement - there are years of politicking left before the final direction of the UK and the shape of the eventual relationship is set in stone.

There will be those in the Conservative party setting their sights firmly on the next few years and - in particular - how to "lift the backstop" and escape from what must - from a Brexiteer perspective - be only a temporary customs union if global trade deals are to be contemplated. They will be looking at the text tonight hoping that it gives them sufficient room for maneouvre in the years to come.

And they'll need to decide - quickly - whether to have been seen to resign immediately on the principle of this agreement will be a pre-requisite for a successful run when the 1922 committee eventually pulls the trigger.

For that reason alone there may be resignations tonight, regardless of whether the Cabinet will agree the terms tomorrow.

boggerman1

Boris mad and Sammy Wilson almost bursting a blood vessel on sky news.good man Sammy your "loyalty" to the mainland and the pm sells ye down the river.hilarious

Inquitus

kowtow wrote: »

In some ways the Cabinet arithmetic is more interesting than the Parliamentary arithmetic.

It seems she is sunk, unlikely to get the 10 DUP, will lose 10-20 ERG minimum and can only count on 5 Labour Brexiteers, hard to see how she can make this add up.

kowtow

Inquitus wrote: »

It seems she is sunk, unlikely to get the 10 DUP, will lose 10-20 ERG minimum and can only count on 5 Labour Brexiteers, hard to see how she can make this add up.

A big enough chunk of Labour will cave in and back it whether or not the leadership come up with a fudge for cover. Not to do so (in the absence of a clear path to an acceptable alternative) would be a flagrant case of putting party before country - since the only guaranteed outcome is a no-deal exit.

My view is that May will always have counted on the ERG opposing the deal on principle, so she must see some possibility of Labour support.

Inquitus

kowtow wrote: »

A big enough chunk of Labour will cave in and back it whether or not the leadership come up with a fudge for cover. Not to do so (in the absence of a clear path to an acceptable alternative) would be a flagrant case of putting party before country - since the only guaranteed outcome is a no-deal exit.

My view is that May will always have counted on the ERG opposing the deal on principle, so she must see some possibility of Labour support.

I think the chances of Labour pushing this through are negligible, its a Tory mess, and Labour aren't going to be blamed if it falls, especially if the Tories in Government can't even get their MP's to vote for it.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

I think May has had enough. Negotiated as far as she could but knows it will fail.

She doesn't want to lead a no deal brexit. She will resign as PM and watch the brexit unfold from the sidelines.

Kinda like Cameron resigning after referendum as he didn't have the heart to deliver it.

kowtow

Inquitus wrote: »

I think the chances of Labour pushing this through are negligible, its a Tory mess, and Labour aren't going to be blamed if it falls, especially if the Tories in Government can't even get their MP's to vote for it.

If Labour vote it down no-deal will become inevitable and the (still Tory) government will have their hands absolutely full preparing for it. They will be able to pin the chaos fairly and squarely on Labour, for choosing to vote down the only deal available without any other option.

Unless Labour can guarantee to topple the government (which this does not, per se) I can't see that they have a sensible way forward.

Maybe I am missing something. It's possible, I suppose, that they could come out strongly for a second referendum and try to force legislation for it before a vote... not quite sure that would work even if the mechanics were possible.

Inquitus

kowtow wrote: »

If Labour vote it down no-deal will become inevitable and the (still Tory) government will have their hands absolutely full preparing for it. They will be able to pin the chaos fairly and squarely on Labour, for choosing to vote down the only deal available without any other option.

Unless Labour can guarantee to topple the government (which this does not, per se) I can't see that they have a sensible way forward.

Maybe I am missing something. It's possible, I suppose, that they could come out strongly for a second referendum and try to force legislation for it before a vote... not quite sure that would work even if the mechanics were possible.

They want a GE, they will vote this down, wait and see, don't see how can you think Labour will get blamed for a Tory Government failing to pass its own legislation! especially when they clearly set out their 6 tests for voting on a Brexit deal, and this meets none of them.

joe40

If the vote fails does that not trigger a general electioon.

Itssoeasy

boggerman1 wrote: »

Boris mad and Sammy Wilson almost bursting a blood vessel on sky news.good man Sammy your "loyalty" to the mainland and the pm sells ye down the river.hilarious

Sammy seemed fairly calm(well calm for the DUP) on the radio earlier but to fair he hadn't read any text at that point.

Inquitus

joe40 wrote: »

If the vote fails does that not trigger a general electioon.

Not directly no, we need a no confidence vote (simple majority) passed and not reversed within 14 days, or a 2/3 majority to end parliament early under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011.

That's not to say that the Brexit deal being rejected could not trigger May stepping down or something else that will trigger a GE, but the thoughts are that the Tories may vote down their own Brexit deal, but they won't vote no confidence in their own government.

Folkstonian

Inquitus wrote: »

They want a GE, they will vote this down, wait and see, don't see how can you think Labour will get blamed for a Tory Government failing to pass its own legislation! especially when they clearly set out their 6 tests for voting on a Brexit deal, and this meets none of them.

People are seeing right through Corbyn’s labour.

The whole raison d’etre of an opposition is to oppose, to argue for a different and better way.

Corbyn and his shadow cabinet are every bit as shambolic, divided and rudderless as the government and really do deserve a lot of blame

joe40

So if this fails and there is a general election, what are the options. Tory majority not dependant on DUP so revisit this deal.
A labour government, so what happens then, more negotiations? new referendum?
No deal, no election so Britain crashes out in March.
It is a mess, but DUP have backed themselves into a corner. If it wasn't such a ****storm for us it would nearly be amusing

Rhineshark

Inquitus wrote: »

They want a GE, they will vote this down, wait and see, don't see how can you think Labour will get blamed for a Tory Government failing to pass its own legislation! especially when they clearly set out their 6 tests for voting on a Brexit deal, and this meets none of them.

Those six tests were always impossible. That was the point, it was holding the Tories to their extravagant promises.

Kermit.de.frog

The honorable member for the 18th century has his say...

https://twitter.com/dragonaspie/status/1062419884880158720

Inquitus

Rhineshark wrote: »

Those six tests were always impossible. That was the point, it was holding the Tories to their extravagant promises.

Exactly, but they will hold little culpability for this, they didn't negotiate it, they didn't deliver it, and they can't be blamed for it. I don't disagree that Labour under Corbyn is terrible, and I don't disagree they are nearly as divided over this as the Tories, I am just saying they will vote against this deal en masse, and they will catch little of the blame for whatever transpires, in comparison to the Tories.

kowtow

Inquitus wrote: »

Exactly, but they will hold little culpability for this, they didn't negotiate it, they didn't deliver it, and they can't be blamed for it. I don't disagree that Labour under Corbyn is terrible, and I don't disagree they are nearly as divided over this as the Tories, I am just saying they will vote against this deal en masse, and they will catch little of the blame for whatever transpires, in comparison to the Tories.

If they do vote it down then as I see it the inescapable consequence is no deal.

DUP would be able to carry on supporting May in Govt. (they'd be happy enough).

ERG ditto.

May gets on with making the best of no deal and reminds the country that Labour forced it at every opportunity. There is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before the time for a GE comes around.

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Irish cabinet is meeting tomorrow to consider the draft Withdrawal Agreement according to Tony Connelly.

Any word on how the Irish side are actually reacting to this? There seems to be complete radio silence at the moment

Akrasia

kowtow wrote: »

If they do vote it down then as I see it the inescapable consequence is no deal.

DUP would be able to carry on supporting May in Govt. (they'd be happy enough).

ERG ditto.

May gets on with making the best of no deal and reminds the country that Labour forced it at every opportunity. There is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before the time for a GE comes around.

If the deal is rejected it will be because the government, having spent 2 years negotiating, couldn't get proposals through. It's not the oppositions responsibility to back up the sitting government when it is far from clear that the government proposals are in the best interests of the UK.

If TM refuses to resign despite failing miserably to deliver a brexit withdrawal agreement then she will solely responsible for the crash out in March. if she refuses tor resign, it is impossible to believe that she won't face at least one leadership challenge between now and March and if her party vote confidence in her despite her palpable failure, then the entire Tory party and the DUP will be tainted with the outcome of the no deal brexit. When hundreds of thousands of people lose their jobs and there are food shortages and blockades at the ports, any Tory who tries to blame Labour for the disaster will be laughed off the doorstep

Rhineshark

Strazdas wrote: »

Any word on how the Irish side are actually reacting to this? There seems to be complete radio silence at the moment

They've been told to stay out of the bunfight. Tony Connolly will probably know if anyone does but I think the policy is radio silence while the UK does whatever it will.

Itssoeasy

Strazdas wrote: »

Any word on how the Irish side are actually reacting to this? There seems to be complete radio silence at the moment

That's good. Radio silence and keep the head down and let the House of Commons and the politicians in Britain talk and in some cases make silly comments.

Mr.Nice Guy

Strazdas wrote: »

Any word on how the Irish side are actually reacting to this? There seems to be complete radio silence at the moment

They've probably learned lessons from last December and don't want to say anything that might encourage May's domestic opponents. Seems like only a matter of time before the DUP denounce the text:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1062426691547602945

Rhineshark

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1010667/

"British ministers are being given sight of the text this evening ahead of a cabinet meeting tomorrow afternoon."

Well, brace for all hell breaking loose there then. Although they're doing well already.

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

They've probably learned lessons from last December and don't want to say anything that might encourage May's domestic opponents. Seems like only a matter of time before the DUP denounce the text:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1062426691547602945

It's probably wise to keep well out of it. The last thing they want is to get sucked into an Irish Govt vs hard Brexiteer war of words.

Mezcita

Pound on the rise. Curiouser and curiouser...

Surely with a vote not looking likely to pass it should be going the other way?

flatty

I can't for the life of me see why she wouldnt put it to the country.

Itssoeasy

flatty wrote: »

I can't for the life of me see why she wouldnt put it to the country.

The UK government aren't obliged to put it to a referendum as the parliament is sovereign in the U.K. not the people whereas in Ireland we are sovereign and the dail aren't. We have binding referendums here, whereas the UK referedum on brexit was simply an advisory one. The British government were under no obligation to act on the result(although they'd be stupid to have not acted on it).