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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Water John

There are a lot of pharma cos in Ireland. They have high value exports relative to volume.

Scoondal

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britain-belgium-2866202-Jul2016/%3famp=1

It's complicated. The US is our biggest market by a country mile and Belgium outstrips the UK. But a lot of goods are shipped on from Belgium. Plus the UK is more profitable because of the nature of the goods imported.

Is that because US companies use Ireland as a tax haven ?
I find it hard to believe that actual Irish companies have more trade to USA than to EU.. This all just your Apple, Google, non manufacturing "numbers/accounts" trade.
If you look at real trading relationships, USA to Ireland and vice versa, it is small compared to trade of products to EU.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britain-belgium-2866202-Jul2016/%3famp=1

It's complicated. The US is our biggest market by a country mile and Belgium outstrips the UK. But a lot of goods are shipped on from Belgium. Plus the UK is more profitable because of the nature of the goods imported.

The CSO base their figures on final destination for goods, not where they're shipped through. So the Belgian exports are goods that are destined for Belgium only. Afaik, it's a lot of agri-foods that go there. Beef, dairy etc.

prawnsambo

Scoondal wrote: »

I gave my opinion. You disagree. You have your own opinion ... why not state your views clearly rather than resorting to stating rubbish.

It was only one short sentence, but you took that I was disagreeing with you from it?

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Would you have a source for that? That's huge news which augurs well if true.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britain-belgium-2866202-Jul2016/%3famp=1

It's complicated. The US is our biggest market by a country mile and Belgium outstrips the UK. But a lot of goods are shipped on from Belgium. Plus the UK is more profitable because of the nature of the goods imported.

Scoondal

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think Belgium has passed out the UK as our biggest EU export market. Just this year afaik.

I gave my opinion. You disagree. You have your own opinion ... why not state your views clearly rather than resorting to stating rubbish.

prawnsambo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Would you have a source for that? That's huge news which augurs well if true.

These are the figures for August 2018. If you scroll down, you can expand the 'by country' exports and it gives the YTD figures as well.

Exports to Belgium Jan-Aug were €11.9 billion. To GB €9 billion.

Edit: Found the August figures and updated.

ancapailldorcha

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think Belgium has passed out the UK as our biggest EU export market. Just this year afaik.

Would you have a source for that? That's huge news which augurs well if true.

prawnsambo

Scoondal wrote: »

A UK MP, Mark Francois, is comparing Theresa May's Brexit to the fall of Singapore in WWII..."one tactical defeat after another".
UK voted to leave EU on 23 June 2016. Today is 12 November 2018. They have 4 and a half months before UK leaves EU. And the UK government is still bickering among themselves.
Why would any professional Irish business see a future trading with such a country. There is no way to plan ahead or to know what crackpot idea UK will come up with next.
Ireland should look to EU for a stable, no barrier trading partner. Even other non EU countries now look like better places in which to do business.
Forget about UK. I have already. I am no longer a customer of UK companies or companies with a majority UK ownership. I try not to buy UK products. And I have no wish to travel to UK for any reason.
Ireland can exist very well without UK influence.

I think Belgium has passed out the UK as our biggest EU export market. Just this year afaik.

Scoondal

A UK MP, Mark Francois, is comparing Theresa May's Brexit to the fall of Singapore in WWII..."one tactical defeat after another".
UK voted to leave EU on 23 June 2016. Today is 12 November 2018. They have 4 and a half months before UK leaves EU. And the UK government is still bickering among themselves.
Why would any professional Irish business see a future trading with such a country. There is no way to plan ahead or to know what crackpot idea UK will come up with next.
Ireland should look to EU for a stable, no barrier trading partner. Even other non EU countries now look like better places in which to do business.
Forget about UK. I have already. I am no longer a customer of UK companies or companies with a majority UK ownership. I try not to buy UK products. And I have no wish to travel to UK for any reason.
Ireland can exist very well without UK influence.

Sand

EdgeCase wrote: »

I think you also have to remember in the French situation, the imperial period goes very heavily against their notions of being a very human rights and natural law based modern republic and it was quite contrary to the ideals of the revolution. There’s a sense of conscience about what the French empire was and why it’s not something to have pride in. So, after WWII they were able to distance the modern republic from what had gone before it. It gives them a sense of perspective that I don’t think the UK has. The British Empire, despite its grand scale fizzled out relatively unspectacularly with the country morphing into modernity in the mid 20th century.

I don't agree that France has transcended imperialism. They have over 10,000 troops deployed in their old colonies, including an ongoing war/policing action they are fighting in Mali and the Sahel for the past 4.5 years. Bastille Day is celebrated with a significant military parade by a French army that retains regiments of wholly imperial/colonial origin. The French Foreign Legion still has a very positive reputation earned fighting Frances colonial wars. The kepi (again of colonial origin) was re-introduced to the French military at the start of the 90s. The French seem to wish to retain links to their imperial past just as much as the British do, and desire a global role just as much as the British do.

The French and British are not embarrassed by their Empires but that's not unusual. The Turks aren't in the slightest bit embarrassed about the Ottoman Empire for example.

J Mysterio

Interesting interview with Peter Hitchens i stumbled upon on Youtube, from 2017. Still very current.

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No, it can't. The Parliament can vote to leave a treaty at any time if they wish.

Well technically only with the support of the government.

Imreoir2

trellheim wrote: »

One point I see bandied about is that you cannot bind Parliament ( the UK one). However, how does that relate to treaties and the like ? Surely it can bind itself to abide by treaties.

No, it can't. The Parliament can vote to leave a treaty at any time if they wish.

RobMc59

At least the British public is seeing the Tories for what they are and I hate to say it but Jeremy Corbyn is hardly covering himself in glory-he should be rallying the country against the self serving tory elitists.

cml387

As a child of the cold war, it has got me thinking about how Britain had prepared for a nuclear exchange by planning food distribution post attack.
Probably off topic, if so I apologise, but it makes interesting reading

One aspect was the feeding of refugees from bombed cities, for which no plan was seemingly possible.

This bit is rather chilling:

The situation was summed up in a phrase used during Exercise Vireg when it was said, in the face of 70000 refugees living rough in the New Forest that “food was almost impossible to obtain especially after the New Forest ponies had been consumed”.

prawnsambo

Spook_ie wrote: »

How do they define 50% European, majority of shares are likely held by various pension funds, hedge funds etc. If it's an American Pension Fund with an office in Berlin would that make the shares European held?

Afaik, thiose funds have to have a domicile too. In fact isn't that why JRM has moved his Somerset thingummy to Dublin?

charlie14

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I was in a meeting with him years ago when he was Junior Minister for Agriculture and he appeared to be completely clueless as to what the meeting was about.
My opinion of him was that he was only elected because he could kick a football!

From that clip the voters of north Kerry should have not just taken into consideration how well he could kick a ball.
They should have given some thought as too how often he was kicked in the head as well.

Seth Brundle

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1061946944015228928

Interested to see what they find.

The last time BBC and RTE did one of these was most notable for this moment from Jimmy Deenihan.

https://youtu.be/TWFZeL-E6zs

Extraordinary how so much has changed in the three years since that.

I was in a meeting with him years ago when he was Junior Minister for Agriculture and he appeared to be completely clueless as to what the meeting was about.
My opinion of him was that he was only elected because he could kick a football!

Spook_ie

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The ownership of Airlines is very important. They must be at least 50% European owned to take advantaged of European deals such as Open Skies

How do they define 50% European, majority of shares are likely held by various pension funds, hedge funds etc. If it's an American Pension Fund with an office in Berlin would that make the shares European held?

Spook_ie

Mc Love wrote: »

People still buy tv guides?

Yeah otherwise I have to power up a device and go online or use an EPG and interfere with someone else's watching, do you just grab the control and press the what's on button, bet you don't realise how pissed off other people watching the TV get if you do.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1061946944015228928

Interested to see what they find.

The last time BBC and RTE did one of these was most notable for this moment from Jimmy Deenihan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWFZeL-E6zs

Extraordinary how so much has changed in the three years since that.

prawnsambo

There can be no doubt in what the cabinet are pleased to call their minds, of what the implications of a no deal exit will be. They've realised they're on an island (Raab C Brexit), know that the transport implications are dire (Jo Johnson), understand that the German car manufacturers actually aren't going to lose sleep over it and divide and rule has actually resulted in greater unity of purpose. Add to that the mass exodus of business to the rest of the EU and they must surely realise that "they need us more than we need them" is actually a theorem that is true only in reverse.

So the only thing that could prevent them from agreeing to the deal on offer is the unutterable horror of losing face. Well that can be solved easily by dropping May like a hot potato and inserting somebody else at the helm who can pretend complete innocence of the whole sorry mess and either sign up or call back the A50 notification.

LuckyLloyd

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is the problem. If the deal is acceptable to the EU, it won't be acceptable to the UK government. A vice versa. It's intractable. Hope I'm wrong though.

If that's the way it is then it's time to find it out and confirm it, and allow the focus to move onto Hard exit prep. The EU are doing what they're supposed to do here - roughly 85% into the timeline they're clarifying their final offer. Take it, leave it, fail to deliver it. But the time for the UK to decide is now.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

Barnier making it obvious that it is in the UK's lap. Basically deal done, now get it through your political process.
I don't believe it will pass, maybe not even the Cabinet, or the Cabinet as it is presently constituted. Itwll take some resignations to get it to Parliament. Those resignations could come from two sides.

This is the problem. If the deal is acceptable to the EU, it won't be acceptable to the UK government. A vice versa. It's intractable. Hope I'm wrong though.

McGiver

Infini wrote: »

Wouldn't call it a test for Ireland but rather a test on Britain on how long they want to keep up this self defeating farce. They can either have a 2nd vote to try and get out of this, capitulate or crash in a blaze of incompetent failure.

I honestly think under the threat of a no deal and facing disaster the Brits might just have a 2nd rerun of this to attempt to get out of the worst of this. They have no hope of escaping their foolishness otherwise at this point they simply cannot agree as theyre too divided.

Or we could see some cross-party commission set up, once May's government collapses but GE isn't called. But this is probably unlikely given the bipartisan political culture.

Water John

Barnier making it obvious that it is in the UK's lap. Basically deal done, now get it through your political process.
I don't believe it will pass, maybe not even the Cabinet, or the Cabinet as it is presently constituted. Itwll take some resignations to get it to Parliament. Those resignations could come from two sides.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Big test for the Irish govt as well as to how far the solidarity actually went...

https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1061983689654132736

Wouldn't call it a test for Ireland but rather a test on Britain on how long they want to keep up this self defeating farce. They can either have a 2nd vote to try and get out of this, capitulate or crash in a blaze of incompetent failure.

I honestly think under the threat of a no deal and facing disaster the Brits might just have a 2nd rerun of this to attempt to get out of the worst of this. They have no hope of escaping their foolishness otherwise at this point they simply cannot agree as theyre too divided.

prawnsambo

Groundhog day with Michel Barnier being played by Bill Murray. It's still the cabinet negotiating amongst themselves.

Kermit.de.frog

So it seems the parameters of a deal are ready, nitty gritty just left to finalise and then on to the UK clown cabinet to consider.

https://twitter.com/DailyFXTeam/status/1061992842955014145