Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

sink wrote: »

This is a very interesting article to illuminate the DUP's game plan.

https://unionistvoice.com/politics/exclusive-the-dups-blueprint-for-bringing-down-the-prime-minister-and-saving-the-union/

It's a big gamble. There is no guarantee that the ERG wing would win the leadership competition. The Tory party members vote only on the two candidates with the most support from the parliamentary party and the ERG is a small minority. There is a chance none of them will make it on to the ballot because they have little support from the rest of their colleagues.

I noticed an earlier tweet by Bryson (the author of the piece above), basically along the lines of Loyalists will not accept an Irish Sea Border, frankly it sounded like a not particularly subtle threat.

sink

This is a very interesting article to illuminate the DUP's game plan.

https://unionistvoice.com/politics/exclusive-the-dups-blueprint-for-bringing-down-the-prime-minister-and-saving-the-union/

Stage two, described by a senior DUP source as “bringing the house to the verge of coming down” is that the DUP would withdraw their support for the Prime Minster. Crucially however they have already privately indicated to senior members of the Conservative Party- and have briefed widely today- that this would NOT mean bringing down the confidence and supply agreement. Rather the approach would be that they would not work the agreement whilst Theresa May remained as Prime Minister.

It's a big gamble. There is no guarantee that the ERG wing would win the leadership competition. The Tory party members vote only on the two candidates with the most support from the parliamentary party and the ERG is a small minority. There is a chance none of them will make it on to the ballot because they have little support from the rest of their colleagues.

Water John

Johnson's resignation letter is savage. Always be wary of the quiet ones, this may ignite something.

Water John wrote: »

John Major's Gov'nt?

Yeah, although compared to May, Major had a majority, off the top of my head it was something like 20 seats, but would need to check.

Anyway the irony being that Major lost the support of the Euro Sceptics (as they were called then) and therefore he needed the UUP to keep him afloat.

I'd have a bit of respect for Major actually. Despite being at the mercy of the UUP he still managed to push through the Downing Street Declaration which ultimately paved the way for the GFA.

He doesn't hold back now about Brexit either.

bilston wrote: »

Nope, 1990s. Thatcher had huge majorities throughout the 80s.

I remember the graffitti in Belfast at the time: "Molyneaux is a Bolleaux".

Not sure if it's been picked up here, but Boris's brother, Jo, also Transport Minister, has today resigned, calling for a 2nd referendum and saying Britain was on the brink of its biggest crisis since the Second World War.

Another blow to May.

Water John

John Major's Gov'nt?

Water John wrote: »

Jim Molyneaux and his UUP chums propping up UK Govn't, lead to stalemate of policy in NI for years, 1980s AFAIK.

Nope, 1990s. Thatcher had huge majorities throughout the 80s.

cml387 wrote: »

There is a saying that if you accept an insane premise, then what flows from it has a logic of it's own.

The opinion polls predicted a Con victory.

Triggering A50 was popular with the party and after all, that was the logical thing to do after the leave vote (or what? prolong the agony indefinitely?)

Before this, the EU seemed to find it difficult to agree amongst themselves, why not exploit the uncertainty?

Someone said once that the British attitude to the EU has always been histrionic, so it can be no surprise to anyone that it's ended like this.

The thing about the polls is that they were largely steady for the Tories, right through from 2016 to the election itself. They drifted either side of the 40% mark throughout that time. The difference at election time was that Labour mopped up the smaller parties and picked off some marginal Tories. But there was no big bump for the Tories that would have meant an increase in seats. I could never understand how they thought they could make such gains, especially considering the popularity of Corbyn amongst Labour supporters. It was a mistake imo.

Triggering A50 without even knowing what it was for was just lunacy. This wasn't a game to be played in Westminster, this was playing with the big boys. But even in Westminster, and right up to now, they didn't know what they wanted. I would have thought that that would be the startiing point. You can't go iinto negotiations when you're hopelessly divided on what you want to achieve.

And then there's NI. They were warned it would be a problem. But they still marched on like the charge of the light brigade.

Water John

Jim Molyneaux and his UUP chums propping up UK Govn't, lead to stalemate of policy in NI for years, 1980s AFAIK.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I think there is zero chance of May threatening anyone with a border poll.

Not saying there is. and I hope to God she doesn`t because imho if she did, however it went if she went through with it it would be a lose lose for us.
I only brought it up because in the position she is in I am surprised she hasn`t threatened it as she would have nothing to lose no matter how it went.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I have to say that it's refreshing to hear criticism of Brexit from a rightwing source for a change.

Modding this forum means I shouldn't be too honest about voicing my true opinion of the President.

I think May is caught between a rock and a stupid place. GE 2017 was supposed to increase her majority and strengthen her hand against the factions within her party. Instead, it did the opposite and added Arlene Foster's DUP to the list of people she must satisfy.

I think the DUP could easily back down by agreeing to a plan to solve the Irish border even if it meant having NI being treated differently from mainland Britain. I know this is an absurd fantasy of course. However, I'm afraid that they are simply pushing their ideology while hoping that Westminster will be able to throw money at any issues their constituents face as if somehow there will be plenty of money to follow that £1 billion.

Which podcast are you referring to?

I didn't know that about Labour and the UUP.

May is the best of a bad bunch. However, she must accomplish the impossible task of reconciling two mutually exclusive positions, a task which would beguile the sharpest of political minds.

I don't know about the 70s, but the Tories were reliant on the UUP in the 90s.

brickster69 wrote: »

EU are not signatories of the GFA sorry.

I know, and my apologies, but as the references to the EU within the signed GFA are the grounds the EU are insisting along with ourselves as to why their cannot be a hard border, and basically being to lazy to get into what they all mean line by line, I just felt it was as good as them signing it.
Otherwise, were the EU not a major part of the GFA, as I said earlier, I do not see where they would have a leg to stand on the issue of a border.

The difference in the EU`s position on two areas with devolved government that voted to remain, NI and Scotland, is the GFA.

brickster69 wrote: »

Corbyn " we can't stop Brexit "

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-labour-leader-corbyn-we-can-t-stop-brexit-a-1237594.html

Nonsense. He could back a second referendum.

The truth is he doesn't want to stop Brexit...albeit for different ideological reasons to the Tory Brexiteers.

[Deleted User]

Infini wrote: »

Well they can throw all the toy's out of the pram they like but ultimately they've outlived their usefulness and made themselves a liability that at some point will either involve them being forced to go along with things or May could throw them into the Irish Sea by calling a border poll and basically letting NI decide weather to stay or unify with the rest of the island. I honestly think that if she threatened the DUP with a border poll it would actually make the DUP get into line because they'd be terrified of even contesting that.

I think there is zero chance of May threatening anyone with a border poll.

Infini

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So the DUP are throwing their toys out of the pram I see. If only this situation could have been predicted at the time the conservatives made a balls of the snap election and needed their help. The DUP have some power in Westminster because of Teresa mays ego and sure look where we are ?

Well they can throw all the toy's out of the pram they like but ultimately they've outlived their usefulness and made themselves a liability that at some point will either involve them being forced to go along with things or May could throw them into the Irish Sea by calling a border poll and basically letting NI decide weather to stay or unify with the rest of the island. I honestly think that if she threatened the DUP with a border poll it would actually make the DUP get into line because they'd be terrified of even contesting that.

brickster69

charlie14 wrote: »

but other than the fact that we the UK and the EU are all signatories of the GFA

EU are not signatories of the GFA sorry.

ancapailldorcha

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Found this interesting. Was listening to Ben Lowry, Deputy Editor of the Belfast Newsletter, on the Nolan Show and he said well-placed sources told him a few weeks ago that the government was confident they could get the deal through without the DUP. Goes on to say the DUP are in a "nightmarish situation" and offers a take on what he thinks the implications could be for unionism. You can listen from 32:00 here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001217

On a side note, I found this via the SDLP's Claire Hanna. A pro-Brexit podcast's take on May's Brexit mistakes:

https://twitter.com/brexitbroadcast/status/1060116437631680512

Pretty damning when you absorb the scale of the errors.

I have to say that it's refreshing to hear criticism of Brexit from a rightwing source for a change.

CelticRambler wrote: »

I don't think Theresa May has it in her to threaten anyone, and that's probably her greatest weakness. In many ways, she's the other side of the Trump coin - both of them seem incapable of thinking for themselves, and make decisions based on whatever "advisors" they've listened to most recently.

Modding this forum means I shouldn't be too honest about voicing my true opinion of the President.

I think May is caught between a rock and a stupid place. GE 2017 was supposed to increase her majority and strengthen her hand against the factions within her party. Instead, it did the opposite and added Arlene Foster's DUP to the list of people she must satisfy.

Enzokk wrote: »

Well there was another mistake May made, apparently agreeing with the DUP in return for their support that she will ensure that NI is not treated differently to the rest of the UK as a result of Brexit.

I don't think the DUP can back down now. I think all parties have wedged themselves into a corner that they cannot move from easily without doing some serious damage to their reputations, so as many warned we will sleepwalk into a no deal Brexit because parties have wedged themselves into positions they cannot get out of.

I think the DUP could easily back down by agreeing to a plan to solve the Irish border even if it meant having NI being treated differently from mainland Britain. I know this is an absurd fantasy of course. However, I'm afraid that they are simply pushing their ideology while hoping that Westminster will be able to throw money at any issues their constituents face as if somehow there will be plenty of money to follow that £1 billion.

cml387 wrote: »

That's easy to say now, however politics is the art of getting through to Friday. After a disastrous general election she really had no other choice other than to look to the DUP (remember Labour did exactly the same back in the seventies,then with the original UUP).

May has made many mistakes (outlined in that excellent podcast further back) but given the situation she found herself in she had no alternatives.

In the end, the referendum vote to leave was the terrible Rubicon that was crossed. Everything stems from that and nothing other than another referendum will sort it out. I feel that that is what is coming.

Which podcast are you referring to?

I didn't know that about Labour and the UUP.

May is the best of a bad bunch. However, she must accomplish the impossible task of reconciling two mutually exclusive positions, a task which would beguile the sharpest of political minds.

CelticRambler wrote: »

The reason for requiring different terms for NI has to do with it being geographically attached to the Republic, the socio-economic implications of physical infrastructure along the border, and the provisions of the GFA. Holding a border poll would not change any of that - the GFA isn't up for re-negotiation, and neither are any of the EU treaties.

Again I may be incorrect, but other than the fact that we the UK and the EU are all signatories of the GFA, I would not see where, seeing as the EU accepted NI as being a part of the UK application to join, would legally leave us or the EU with a leg to stand on on the border issue when it came to the UK deciding to leave other than under the GFA.

The GFA is the key as to why we and the EU can insist on no hard border.
My point is that from the points I have already made that there is a possible double edged sword to the GFA in relation the border.

That is simply it. Nothing to do with re-negotiating the GFA or EU treaties.

Itssoeasy

So the DUP are throwing their toys out of the pram I see. If only this situation could have been predicted at the time the conservatives made a balls of the snap election and needed their help. The DUP have some power in Westminster because of Teresa mays ego and sure look where we are ?

brickster69

Corbyn " we can't stop Brexit "

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-labour-leader-corbyn-we-can-t-stop-brexit-a-1237594.html

flutered

10000maniacs wrote: »

Thargor wrote: »

No surprises about Raab not knowing about Dover being important, he's a bit of a thicko:

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1022422994222809088

Raab reminds me of a dunce I went to school with and sometimes used the excuse "the dog ate my homework".
Suddenly a lightbulb comes on in his nut on the 7th November 2018 when he realises the catastrophic consequences of a no deal Brexit on the flow of imports and exports through Dover. And then he exudes his idiocy and lack of brief to the world.
He is the chief Brexit negotiator on the UK side FFS. Heavens to Betsy!:eek:

imagne having him dealing with wto dealings

Sand

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Pretty damning when you absorb the scale of the errors.

The most damning thing is May is still in power and still seen as the best option available for PM. The British political and media class is horribly incompetent and the big boy decisions Brexit forced on them have highlighted that.

Enzokk wrote: »

As has been mentioned before though the GFA will still be there and even if there is a referendum on a united Ireland I don't see how it is tied to what Brexit people want. The UK will still have their hands tied by the GFA. And then you cannot rule out that people may want to be British but to still be part of the EU as well. So if you did have a vote on a united Ireland and people vote against it I think it would be dangerous to read much more into it other than people don't want to be part of a UI right now.

I can see all that, but my point is that if she did threaten or to have a border poll based on the GFA then it would be a serious consideration for both us and the EU.

If she did go though with it, regardless of how it went, it would be extremely difficult for anyone to argue that a border poll result was not a poll on the current border impasse.

cml387

prawnsambo wrote: »

From where May started, you are correct. But she triggered Article 50. And triggered it prematurely. She started a ticking time bomb in the hope that it would force the EU to play her game. But it was like putting a gun to her head and threatening to pull the trigger and she couldn't see that. And of course calling a GE. For absolutely no cogent reason. People have suggested that she suffers from an inferiority complex with the old etonians in the party and wanted to be seen to have out-politicked Cameron. If that's the reason, she was not just deluded, but dangerously so. And gambled the countries future on hubris. In that, she's matched Cameron.

There is a saying that if you accept an insane premise, then what flows from it has a logic of it's own.

The opinion polls predicted a Con victory.

Triggering A50 was popular with the party and after all, that was the logical thing to do after the leave vote (or what? prolong the agony indefinitely?)

Before this, the EU seemed to find it difficult to agree amongst themselves, why not exploit the uncertainty?

Someone said once that the British attitude to the EU has always been histrionic, so it can be no surprise to anyone that it's ended like this.

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't think the EU are saying anything about the brexit vote in NI or what NI thinks about brexit generally. The sole focus is on the GFA and how strand 2 would be affected. And that concern is reflected here and has been accepted by the UK, even if they're trying hard to forget that now. And it would be completely improper for us or the EU to be saying anything about the brexit vote, which is a completely internal UK matter.

That is basically my point. The EU`s and ours is focused on strand 2 of the GFA and that is where May`s problems on getting a deal are.
Even the threat of her using a border poll, which from the GFA she can call more or less whenever she feels like it from my reading of it, would leave her with a much better hand to play other than the one she is attempting to play now. Even going through with it, win or lose, would leave her in a better position.

Btw, should anyone think so I am advocating that she should, or even threaten it, I certainly am sure as however it went would be no financial advantage to us at this time. Or in the foreseeable future for that matter.

Enzokk

charlie14 wrote: »

If May actually held a border poll and it failed it would be very difficult for the EU to say it wasn`t the democratic decision of NI to stay in the UK and leave it under the same terms as the rest of the UK.
That is where the threat of holding a poll would be a gun to our heads and the EU`s in that it would be a hard border.
Even if it passed it probably financially wouldn`t be much better for us than failing.

That is why I am a bit surprised she hasn`t made mumblings about the possibility of doing it

As has been mentioned before though the GFA will still be there and even if there is a referendum on a united Ireland I don't see how it is tied to what Brexit people want. The UK will still have their hands tied by the GFA. And then you cannot rule out that people may want to be British but to still be part of the EU as well. So if you did have a vote on a united Ireland and people vote against it I think it would be dangerous to read much more into it other than people don't want to be part of a UI right now.

lawred2 wrote: »

Is there any avenue out of this for the DUP that might result in anything remotely positive for them?

Is it not getting clearer to them at this stage that the union they are looking to protect is not really something that exists?

Not really as far as I can see. Their only hope is for most economists to be wrong and Brexit will be a success with a border between the UK and the EU.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Which would you rather: a punch in the face right now, or wait til tomorrow and get either a punch in the face or a pat on the back?

No deal brexit now is the worst case possible. Even no deal brexit in a years time is better.

And who knows, maybe there will be Unicorns after all.

Well I am looking at the current situation in the UK. Unless May proposes a general election I don't see how anything changes until 2022 with the numbers as they are in the House of Commons.

That is why I am thinking there is no upside for the EU to postpone article 50. The only reason would be if a deal is reached but they run out of time to get all the relevant parties to agree to it. Then a few months will ensure there is time to try and get it through. If things are where they are right now with no solution to the NI border, why prolong the inevitable.

cml387 wrote: »

That's easy to say now, however politics is the art of getting through to Friday. After a disastrous general election she really had no other choice other than to look to the DUP (remember Labour did exactly the same back in the seventies,then with the original UUP).

May has made many mistakes (outlined in that excellent podcast further back) but given the situation she found herself in she had no alternatives.

In the end, the referendum vote to leave was the terrible Rubicon that was crossed. Everything stems from that and nothing other than another referendum will sort it out. I feel that that is what is coming.

From where May started, you are correct. But she triggered Article 50. And triggered it prematurely. She started a ticking time bomb in the hope that it would force the EU to play her game. But it was like putting a gun to her head and threatening to pull the trigger and she couldn't see that. And of course calling a GE. For absolutely no cogent reason. People have suggested that she suffers from an inferiority complex with the old etonians in the party and wanted to be seen to have out-politicked Cameron. If that's the reason, she was not just deluded, but dangerously so. And gambled the countries future on hubris. In that, she's matched Cameron.

cml387

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I still can't believe that Arlene Foster has been allowed to play her hand the way she has. May really should have just threatened her with another GE and the possibility of a Corbyn premiership.

That's easy to say now, however politics is the art of getting through to Friday. After a disastrous general election she really had no other choice other than to look to the DUP (remember Labour did exactly the same back in the seventies,then with the original UUP).

May has made many mistakes (outlined in that excellent podcast further back) but given the situation she found herself in she had no alternatives.

In the end, the referendum vote to leave was the terrible Rubicon that was crossed. Everything stems from that and nothing other than another referendum will sort it out. I feel that that is what is coming.