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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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road_high

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No deal is not a real option. If May falls or there is an election, expect the UK to ask the EU to defer brexit day somehow.

I understand it would be devastating for UK industry alright but serms to be a significant number of blind ideologues all for this outcome

road_high

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No deal is not a real option. If May falls or there is an election, expect the UK to ask the EU to defer brexit day somehow.

I understand it would be devastating for UK industry alright but seems to be a significant number of blind ideologues all for this outcome

Strazdas

road_high wrote: »

If it gets voted down, what happens then? Election? Or just no deal?
Either way hopefully yhr DUP are a spent force

Nobody really knows, but the few days following such a parliamentary defeat would define what happens next. It definitely wouldn't mean No Deal as the EU would still be waiting to hear back from the UK government what they intend to do next. No Deal would only happen if the UK formally informed the EU it was withdrawing from the talks and was not going to sign the withdrawal agreement with them.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No deal is not a real option. If May falls or there is an election, expect the UK to ask the EU to defer brexit day somehow.

But why would the EU agree to that? Will they get a different result if they delay by a year? Unless there is a way for the UK to get past the arithmetic in the House of Commons I see no reason to continue with the inevitable.

Water John

LB would not act immediately in terms of EU, they'd first concentrate on the Govn't/Tory difficulty, but i suspect they would have Motions for Parliament in their back pocket. All they would need is some Tory MPs to back them as opposed to a crash out Brexit.
Remember at all times, a big majority in the HoC do not want a crash out Brexit.

I would think if Parliament asks the Govn't to do something, eg seek an ext of Art 50, the PM would be obliged to do it.

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Yes, but it's ambivalent as circumstances have to be demonsratable altered.

But if she did call a border poll because she stated her belief that circumstances have been demonstrably altered due to the Brexit referendum result in NI, then we, or the EU, would hardly be in a position to argue otherwise.

If she did would it not be very much a case in the position she is in now of her landing her problem on everyone else heads ?

Water John

Govn't of the UK does not accept any division of the overall Bexit Ref, eg Scot and NI stay, Wales and UK leave.
As you can see that also triggers a Scots Ref.

charlie14

Bambi wrote: »

Because the Tories have had such a good a run of it recently in calling polls?

If she did it would leave her hand stronger win or lose. A vote for a UI then NI stays in the CU and SM with a border in the Irish sea and the wind gone from the DUP sails. A vote to remain in the UK and she could turn to the EU and say the people have spoken and that negates the December agreement.

An Ciarraioch

charlie14 wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

Yes, but it's ambivalent as circumstances have to be demonsratable altered.

But if she did call a border poll because she stated her belief that circumstances have been demonstrably altered due to the Brexit referendum result in NI, then we, or the EU, would hardly be in a position to argue otherwise.

If she did would it not be very much a case in the position she is in now of her landing her problem on everyone else heads ?

There would have to be clear factual evidence of support for a UI, such as a nationalist majority in a Stormont election, or SF winning 9-10 Westminster seats.

MrMusician18

Would a border poll require an act of parliament. While it is up to the NI Sec. to decide when it happens, presumably it would?

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Govn't of the UK does not accept any division of the overall Bexit Ref, eg Scot and NI stay, Wales and UK leave.
As you can see that also triggers a Scots Ref.

I do not see where it would automatically trigger a Scottish referendum. If she called a border poll it would be on the basis of the GFA. There is no such agreement with Scotland.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Would a border poll require an act of parliament. While it is up to the NI Sec. to decide when it happens, presumably it would?

Working from memory, but I don't think so. I think the mechanism is already in the NI Act. But iirc, the actual de-unification of NI from the UK does require at least one act of parliament.

Water John

Scotland can request another Ref in the event of a change of circumstances. SNP will do this once Brexit happens.

Kermit.de.frog

Phillip Hammond has just refused to rule out Irish sea customs checks.

Looks like the decision has been made that dumping the DUP is the path of least resistance.

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

There would have to be clear factual evidence of support for a UI, such as a nationalist majority in a Stormont election, or SF winning 9-10 Westminster seats.

The GFA states that it is at the discretion of the NI secretary of state, and as I said earlier I may be incorrect in my reading, but to me it seems the only requirement on holding a border poll is that it appears to the secretary of state that a majority would express a wish that NI would cease being a member of the UK and join a UI.

In other words it does not require a prior nationalist majority in Stormont or winning more NI seats in a Westminster election to call a border poll.

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Scotland can request another Ref in the event of a change of circumstances. SNP will do this once Brexit happens.

They can. But unlike NI they would not automatically remain in the SM or CU.
Not only would they have to apply for membership of the EU, they would also be outside of any agreement the by then very un-united UK may make with the EU.

Mc Love

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Phillip Hammond has just refused to rule out Irish sea customs checks.

Looks like the decision has been made that dumping the DUP is the path of least resistance.

They're not going to do anything that puts the union at risk is what he said in a video I just saw

charlie14

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Would a border poll require an act of parliament. While it is up to the NI Sec. to decide when it happens, presumably it would?

From my reading the only act of parliament required would be after a border poll is carried out.

Kermit.de.frog

Mc Love wrote: »

They're not going to do anything that puts the union at risk is what he said in a video I just saw

The union is still there with or without Irish sea checks.

He did not say there would be no additional or customs checks.

The use of language is important.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

From my reading the only act of parliament required would be after a border poll is carried out.

There would probably be several. Welsh devolution required two over eight years iirc. And it's still part of the UK. It would be a monstrous legislatove task. A bit like Tusk's "taking the eggs out of the cake" analogy. Extraordinary that the UK MPs thought that getting out of the EU would be easy.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

But why would the EU agree to that?

A disorderly no-deal crashout will cost the EU a tonne of money. Kicking the can down the road (in classic EU style) might result in Brexit never happening, or some cheaper alternative like Norway being adopted by a Labour government.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

There would probably be several. Welsh devolution required two over eight years iirc. And it's still part of the UK. It would be a monstrous legislatove task. A bit like Tusk's "taking the eggs out of the cake" analogy. Extraordinary that the UK MPs thought that getting out of the EU would be easy.

Again I may be incorrect, but I was of the opinion that it was already covered under the NI Act that Westminster would accept the result of a border poll.
Edit :
If it came down to logistics I have a feeling there would not be a delay similar to Wales. Barring a few of the usual suspects the vast majority would go break-neck speed to be shot of it. imo

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

Again I may be incorrect, but I was of the opinion that it was already covered under the NI Act that Westminster would accept the result of a border poll.
Edit :
If it came down to logistics I have a feeling there would not be a delay similar to Wales. Barring a few of the usual suspects the vast majority would go break-neck speed to be shot of it. imo

Yeah, but I'm talking about after a border poll and a UI vote in that poll. That's where things get messy.

Edit: To answer your quick edit.

Think of the legislation required to handle things like infrastructure, what happens to devolved governmental services, state assets etc. It's massive.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, but I'm talking about after a border poll and a UI vote in that poll. That's where things get messy.

I`m not saying it wouldn`t be messy. Just a bit surprised that with the position May is in she hasn`t even vaguely suggested she might call a border poll.
It would put a gun to the DUP`s head and make even the idea of her possibly calling one a bit of a quandary for both ourselves and the EU.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, but I'm talking about after a border poll and a UI vote in that poll. That's where things get messy.

Edit: To answer your quick edit.

Think of the legislation required to handle things like infrastructure, what happens to devolved governmental services, state assets etc. It's massive.

I`m not saying it would not be a massive logistical nightmare for Britain, but if it was the difference between crashing out of the EU and an organised withdrawal, and I`m certainly no expert, but to me it would look as the lesser of two evils for Britain at least.

RobMc59

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m not saying it wouldn`t be messy. Just a bit surprised that with the position May is in she hasn`t even vaguely suggested she might call a border poll.
It would put a gun to the DUP`s head and make even the idea of her possibly calling one a bit of a quandary for both ourselves and the EU.

There is very little incentive for people in NI to want to join a UI at the moment and the assertion that they would have to accept stuff like the various tax issues and loss of NHS makes it a non starter-Ireland would have to seriously raise their game to make it happen imo. (By the way,I would love to see a UI).

road_high

RobMc59 wrote: »

There is very little incentive for people in NI to want to join a UI at the moment and the assertion that they would have to accept stuff like the various tax issues and loss of NHS makes it a non starter-Ireland would have to seriously raise their game to make it happen imo. (By the way,I would love to see a UI).

I don’t think we are ready at all. We are only just getting to grips with rebuilding after the economic crash, adding in the dead weight that is NI would sink us.
Understandably most people in the real UK want rid but partition should never have happened 100 years ago

theguzman

SNIP. Please read the charter before posting again.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m not saying it wouldn`t be messy. Just a bit surprised that with the position May is in she hasn`t even vaguely suggested she might call a border poll.
It would put a gun to the DUP`s head and make even the idea of her possibly calling one a bit of a quandary for both ourselves and the EU.

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m not saying it would not be a massive logistical nightmare for Britain, but if it was the difference between crashing out of the EU and an organised withdrawal, and I`m certainly no expert, but to me it would look as the lesser of two evils for Britain at least.

As RobMc59 says, it would be a bit of an empty gun. And without any kind of proper polling to support it, would look like the bar of soap it was carved from too.

However, the possibility that creating a hard border might actually lead to the thing they least want, should be threat enough, one would think. Even the onset of brexit has moved polling data from a low of 21% in favour of a UI back in 2016 to close enough to 50% now*, so it wouldn't be an idle threat.

*Those figures are off the top of my head and I haven't looked into the polling data in detail to see how accurate it is. The latest one in September was carried out by the Irish Times/MORI iirc.

Sam Russell

I would think calling assembly elections might be more likely, and would put the frighteners on the DUP. STV would not suit them with the Ash for cash due to report, and the UUP looking for a come back.

UI would not pass under current circumstances _ not certain inthe Repblic, let alone NI.