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Bolsonaro next president of Brazil.

Das Reich

Hope the country now will drop the figure of 60.000 homicides every year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-wins-brazil-presidential-election

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oscarBravo

Das Reich wrote: »

Hope the country now will drop the figure of 60.000 homicides every year.

I admire your optimism, but has electing a far-right strongman wannabe dictator ever led to better outcomes for a country?

RobbingBandit

It does for a while until his means to an end disrupts the status quo for you know who*

*You know who being what ever or whomever are the bigger bad out in the wild.

Rhineshark

Das Reich wrote: »

Hope the country now will drop the figure of 60.000 homicides every year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-wins-brazil-presidential-election

Given his Duterte-like promises, I strongly suspect not.

brevity

Das Reich wrote: »

Hope the country now will drop the figure of 60.000 homicides every year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-wins-brazil-presidential-election

Even a quick read about him leads me to believe that the figure could probably rise. What he might do to the Amazon will affect us all.

It’s a sad state of affairs that people felt so desperate that they had to vote for someone like him.

Kermit.de.frog

I think it's all part of the backlash against political left wing ideologies and political correctness forced on the majorities by pampered 'elites' who don't have to live with the consequences of their moral rightousness.

It's obvious voters are sending warnings around the world from Brexit to Trump, Italy to Brazil; to what in this country we might refer to as the Irish Times bubble..that they want change.

We have now seen it here with Peter Casey's vote as well.

If change does not come, if they continue ignoring their voters then we will see this repeated across Europe and the Americas.

I think the world is going to become a much nastier and more dangerous place in the decades ahead.

brevity

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think it's all part of the backlash against political left wing ideologies and political correctness forced on the majorities by pampered 'elites' who don't have to live with the consequences of their moral rightousness.

It's obvious voters are sending warnings around the world from Brexit to Trump, Italy to Brazil; to what in this country we might refer to as the Irish Times bubble..that they want change.

We have now seen it here with Peter Casey's vote as well.

If change does not come, if they continue ignoring their voters then we will see this repeated across Europe and the Americas.

I think the world is going to become a much nastier and more dangerous place in the decades ahead.

I don’t know if it’s left wing (whatever that means these days) but I’m sure people are probably fed up with corruption and broken promises.

This guy is as bad as that psycho Duarte. Got only knows what’s going to happen there. There are already rumours of gay people being attacked and police entering universities removing certain books.

Judging by the history books the future is going to be hard.

Vital Transformation

Some things he has said:

"I am in favor of torture you know that. [...] This country will only change with civil war, killing thousands. If some innocents die, that's OK, it happens" . "Let's fusillade petralhas (slang for the opposing political party)". He also praised Coronel Brilhante Ustra as true patriot in Brazilian Congress. Ustra was a torturer known for electrocuting, raping and beating women and then bringing their children to see them while covered in blood and vomit. There are also reports of inserting live rats into women's vaginas.

"Minorities have to bow down to the majority [...] Minorities [should] adequate themselves or simply disappear".

"Being gay is result of lack of beating"

"Women shouldn't have the same salary because they get pregnant", Telling a congresswoman she "doesn't deserve to be raped by him"

"My son wouldn't date a black woman, he was well educated".

"Pinochet did what had to be done"

Walter Bishop

I'm sure the election of a far-right strongman who praises torturers, the military junta that used to rule Brazil, and decried a female opponent as 'too ugly to be raped' will do wonders for Brazil :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

brevity wrote: »

I don’t know if it’s left wing (whatever that means these days) but I’m sure people are probably fed up with corruption and broken promises.

This guy is as bad as that psycho Duarte. Got only knows what’s going to happen there. There are already rumours of gay people being attacked and police entering universities removing certain books.

Judging by the history books the future is going to be hard.

Look at this country. RTE and the Irish Times defend the indefensible and anger workers and ordinary people who know the truth but are treated like idiots.

They see criminals wrapped in cotton wool, no justice. Travellers defended while communities and homeowners up and down the country are terrorised. A social welfare system out of control. The rich not paying their taxes....you can go on and on.

They feel screwed.

There is a revoltion coming by ordinary people and workers and it won't be pretty.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Look at this country. RTE and the Irish Times defend the indefensible and anger workers and ordinary people who know the truth but are treated like idiots.

They see criminals wrapped in cotton wool, no justice. Travellers defended while communities and homeowners up and down the country are terrorised. A social welfare system out of control. The rich not paying their taxes....you can go on and on.

They feel screwed.

There is a revoltion coming by ordinary people and workers and it won't be pretty.

I think it's more about inequality and economic deprivation to be honest. People are perfectly free to be anti-PC. If they weren't, people like Trump wouldn't be allowed to run.

hill16bhoy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think it's all part of the backlash against political left wing ideologies and political correctness forced on the majorities by pampered 'elites' who don't have to live with the consequences of their moral rightousness.

In the words of the brilliant Liam Hogan, "political correctness" is a politically correct term for anti-racism, anti-sexism, anti-fascism and anti-bigotry.

The so called "elites" being targetted by the backlash are always the marginalised and/or minorities. The poor, the unemployed, the sick. Women, ethnic minorities, gay and trans people.

To be fair, you have to hand it to the right for their deeply Orwellian framing of such and how they've managed to invert reality and trigger an authoritarian, atavistic streak in people all over the globe.

But it's very scary, and Bolsonaro is perhaps the most scary result of all this nonsense.

Walter Bishop

The rampant inequality of the capitalist system is what's driving most people to vote for populists. This started in the 80s with the policies of Thatcher and Reagan.

Real wages have not grown since then but the top 1% now have 30-some per cent of all the wealth while everyone else is left to fight it out among themselves and be too divided to pose any challenge to continuation of such conditions.

Quite why people think electing someone like Trump or Bolsonaro is going to mean the rich start paying their taxes is where the major disconnect comes in.

I do agree with Kermit that there is a revolution coming in one or more countries and it won't be pretty, people can only be pushed so far.

I disagree that the social welfare system is 'out of control' or anyting close to it, the media mostly picks up on extreme cases and runs them to sell papers or get clicks. No-one ever prints a story like 'man spends six months on the dole while he looks for another job, gets a job and is thankful there was a safety net for him while he did so' because that won't enrage anyone.

bradlente

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Look at this country.

Comparing Brazils election to this country or to political correctness seems a bit simplistic to me. It's a massive, poor country, and there are probably deep-rooted problems there that go way beyond our comfy Western perspective.

Kermit.de.frog

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it's more about inequality and economic deprivation to be honest.

Yes and the problem is it's not the bottom or top suffering, it's the broad middle that keep the country going. That is where the inequality and deprivation is now.

Don't underestimate the Margaret Cash story and the impact that had.

From literally everyone I talked to, mostly middleish earners, people were absolutely furious at the notion that anyone in this society could be getting 50k a year tax free on welfare.

They knew it was bad but that has really shaken hard pressed workers and families up.

From my experience people are stressed, worried and increasingly angry. They work but are getting little back.

This can't continue without serious political upheaval.

It only takes one person to say or articulate how they feel and they will mop up electorally.

Franz Von Peppercorn

hill16bhoy wrote: »

In the words of the brilliant Liam Hogan, "political correctness" is a politically correct term for anti-racism, anti-sexism, anti-fascism and anti-bigotry.

The so called "elites" being targetted by the backlash are always the marginalised and/or minorities. The poor, the unemployed, the sick. Women, ethnic minorities, gay and trans people.

To be fair, you have to hand it to the right for their deeply Orwellian framing of such and how they've managed to invert reality and trigger an authoritarian, atavistic streak in people all over the globe.

But it's very scary, and Bolsonaro is perhaps the most scary result of all this nonsense.

Do you know much about where Bolsonaro‘s vote comes from? Dismissing his voters as racist or sexist or blah blah blah isn’t generally helpful.

Looks like quite a lot of different classes voted for him.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/26/its-not-just-the-right-thats-voting-for-bolsonaro-its-everyone-far-right-brazil-corruption-center-left-anger-pt-black-gay-racism-homophobia/

Shouting at voters doesn’t help, if there’s a genuine fear of crime and it’s not being solved eventually someone will come along and solve it.

Nody

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think it's all part of the backlash against political left wing ideologies and political correctness forced on the majorities by pampered 'elites' who don't have to live with the consequences of their moral rightousness.

It's obvious voters are sending warnings around the world from Brexit to Trump, Italy to Brazil; to what in this country we might refer to as the Irish Times bubble..that they want change.

We have now seen it here with Peter Casey's vote as well.

If change does not come, if they continue ignoring their voters then we will see this repeated across Europe and the Americas.

I think the world is going to become a much nastier and more dangerous place in the decades ahead.

You'd be very very far off the mark in Brazil; in Brazil it's about the systemic corruption that both main parties (and their sub groups who all demand bribes to fall in line every election etc.) have been embroiled in. The Brazil corruption levels runs in the billions a year and the politicans are about as subtle as a bull in a china shop about it. We're talking cash in suitcase kind of obvious corruption going on there and has for decades which is why people vote in someone from the outside.

pixelburp

Not being an expert on Brazil, though it's clear as day it has major problems with crime, corruption and violence, I'm going to go out on a whim here and suggest that like every other hard-line, authoritarian aspiring leader, Bolsonaro will be as corrupt, violent and decadent as any other of his ilk. This pattern repeats, all the time, in every case. Big promises to end corruption, fight 'The Other' conveniently identified for scapegoat purposes as the true cause of all a country's troubles, backed by a rabid base indulging in that lizard part of the human brain that craves someone to take responsibility and rule them like a king. Presumably the infamous 'Death Squads' will make a comeback.

And as always in this case, the saviour from 'the establishment' is practically emblematic of that demographic, and it'll be the poorest, most vulnerable who will suffer. Pick a country, find the same pattern.

And comparing Brazil with Ireland is not just naive, it's farcical reductionism that not only belittles the myriad of structural problems in Brazil, it over-exaggerates issues in Ireland. Edge case problems with a tiny demographic, or those abusing the welfare system is ... well, it's hilariously hyperbolic. Other countries wish they had Ireland's problems.

Kermit.de.frog

Nody wrote: »

You'd be very very far off the mark in Brazil; in Brazil it's about the systemic corruption that both main parties (and their sub groups who all demand bribes to fall in line every election etc.) have been embroiled in. The Brazil corruption levels runs in the billions a year and the politicans are about as subtle as a bull in a china shop about it. We're talking cash in suitcase kind of obvious corruption going on there and has for decades which is why people vote in someone from the outside.

We've had our own share corruption in this country too. I would put Ireland in the premier league of corruption certainly among western countries.

Obviously the extremes may be more visible in a country like Brazil but the principle is the same.

And likd Brazil how many politicians have we jailed?

Oh that's right we set up tribunals to feed lawyers and solicitors while simultaneously keeping the politicians OUT of jail by have them run so long that they are either too old or pass away.

How corrupt can you get?

We can't throw stones here.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We've had our own share corruption in this country too. I would put Ireland in the premier league of corruption certainly among western countries.

Obviously the extremes may be more visible in a country like Brazil but the principle is the same.

And likd Brazil how many politicians have we jailed?

Oh that's right we set up tribunals to feed lawyers and solicitors while simultaneously keeping the politicians OUT of jail by have them run so long that they are either too old or pass away.

How corrupt can you get?

We can't throw stones here.

Mod: Feel free to start a new thread for Irish corruption if you would like. I'd prefer to keep this one focused on Brazil.

Das Reich

brevity wrote: »

Even a quick read about him leads me to believe that the figure could probably rise. What he might do to the Amazon will affect us all.

It’s a sad state of affairs that people felt so desperate that they had to vote for someone like him.

That comes from someone thats country is the one with less percentage of forest in Europe. All Irish land is used to farm but some people don't want Brazil to use its land to improve the economy.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Walter Bishop wrote: »

The rampant inequality of the capitalist system is what's driving most people to vote for populists. This started in the 80s with the policies of Thatcher and Reagan.

Real wages have not grown since then but the top 1% now have 30-some per cent of all the wealth while everyone else is left to fight it out among themselves and be too divided to pose any challenge to continuation of such conditions.
.

It’s not just that. Were it just that then the left would clean up. The left has either abandoned these classes (a la Blair and his love of neoliberalism) or accused them of privilege (Hillary’s Democrats). Doubt if the latter in Brazil but my guess is that they are fed up with corruption and ineptitude.

Das Reich

Walter Bishop wrote: »

I'm sure the election of a far-right strongman who praises torturers, the military junta that used to rule Brazil, and decried a female opponent as 'too ugly to be raped' will do wonders for Brazil :rolleyes:

During the military regime there was almost no Brazilian living abroad (only few leftist "artists" that were expelled but were not immigrants) and millions of immigrants living there, the economy was growing 10% yearly and unemployment didn't exist. Crime was nearly absent. First Brazilians to mass emigrate from the country was in 1986 (one year after the democracy) when 200.000 japanese brazilian returned to Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilians_in_Japan).

hill16bhoy

The first time I heard about the rise of the evangelical movement in Brazil was around 2002. You'd see Brazilian footballers revealing t-shirts under their jersies with stuff written on them like "100% Jesus" - ie. Cafu as he lifted the World Cup in 2002. I read that evangelicism has moved from 6.6% in 1980 to 22% in 2010. So following that trend, you could probably say 25% of Brazilians are now evangelicals.

Evangelical christianity is a harsh, authoritarian, almost 19th century view of the world. We've seen what it's done to the US in terms of enouraging far right politics, and none of it is good. It seems to me that a variation on such a theme is happening in Brazil.

However the interactions between race and politics in Brazil seem far more complex than the US. My understanding is that a majority of black and mixed race people supported Haddad over Bolsonaro, but not by much. However, a clear majority of whites supported Bolsonaro.

By far Haddad's strongest region was the north east, the area which historically had the most slaves, and was also historically neglected compared to the south-east.

Bolsonaro is the candidate of the white, south-eastern middle class and business class. Far from being "anti-establishment" (a term that in my view has become meaningless and vacuous), he is the establishment candidate, ie. your classic insider playing the outsider like Trump, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage etc. There is definitely a significant racial element behind all this.

Brazil is overall a socially conservative country. Bolsonaro has successfully created a narrative where social conservatives are "under attack". That's your standard far right victimhood playbook.

It seems to me that he has used the evangelical movement as a vehicle to cloak the racist elements of his ideology, given that high numbers of blacks and mixed race people are evangelicals. The vilification has been transferred onto even easier targets such as gay and trans people, and particularly the poor.

Brazil has 15 of the world's 30 most dangerous cities. Bolsonaro's "answers" are Duterte-esque.

Then there's the lies and propaganda element and again this is your standard far right information war playbook. Say the most horrible things, portray yourself as an alpha male "strongman", constantly troll people, and it seems there's a market for you wherever you are.

The PT party of Haddad, for which Lula and Dilma Rousseff also stood, has been painted as irredeemably corrupt, and it seems there was definitely a large element of corruption going on in within it. However corruption extended across the political spectrum and the government of Michel Temer which took over when Dilma was impeached was even more corrupt.

So Bolsonaro has painted himself as explicitly anti-corruption. I generally find that candidates who pain themselves as anti-corruption are far worse than those they claim to rail against. They are generally demagogues who have all sorts of abhorrent views. We had one in Ireland ourselves just a short time ago in Gemma O'Doherty. Trump obviously is one too. I've no doubt that Bolsonaro will prove every bit as corrupt and more as anybody who went before him.

The really puzzling thing about all this is that polls consistently showed Lula would have won the election comfortably had he been allowed stand. I guess that's the charisma/name recognition which Haddad did not have.

What has definitely been proved once and for all with this election is that capitalists and business interests prefer authoritarianism and dictatorship to even mild social democracy. That seems to the be the case in Brazil's media. See also the Wall Street Journal editorial supporting Bolsonaro and the gleeful reaction of the US right to the result.

I fear things are going to get a lot worse for Brazil and the world before they get better.

Franz Von Peppercorn

You can see the problem right there. Hill16Bhoy is throwing the old buzz words of the Americanised left (racism, evangelicalism etc etc) at a fairly complex society rather than ask why B got so many votes to begin with from all stratum of society.

hill16bhoy

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

You can see the problem right there. Hill16Bhoy is throwing the old buzz words of the Americanised left (racism, evangelicalism etc etc) at a fairly complex society rather than ask why B got so many votes to begin with from all stratum of society.

From a poster whose entire worldview appears to consist of deliberately simplistic Orwellian buzzwords and buzzphrases used by the US right, which are used exclusively to troll and shut down debate, the irony is very strong with this one.

There really does seem to be no end to the right-wing blizzard of bull**** either online or in the traditional media. I mean on this very thread there's a poster whose user name, from looking at their posting history, appears be a very un-ironic reference to the Nazis.

Bolsonaro's propaganda wars and large scale use of fake "stories" being perhaps the worst offender yet.

Das Reich

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

You can see the problem right there. Hill16Bhoy is throwing the old buzz words of the Americanised left (racism, evangelicalism etc etc) at a fairly complex society rather than ask why B got so many votes to begin with from all stratum of society.

You are right. In Brazil the nostalgia of the military regime reflect the result of election. All the left did there was shouting things like "racist" to dark people who voted for him, "homofobic" to gays that voted for him and "misogynist" to women who voted for him. At facebook comments, they were the first ones to be racist, "you are black you can't vote for him, you have to vote for who I tell you". And look at what this person wrote before "I generally find that candidates who pain themselves as anti-corruption are far worse than those they claim to rail against.". I also find the peolpe who paint themselves as democratic or antiracist far worse than those they claim to rail against.

Franz Von Peppercorn

hill16bhoy wrote: »

From a poster whose entire worldview appears to consist of deliberately simplistic Orwellian buzzwords and buzzphrases used by the US right, which are used exclusively to troll and shut down debate, the irony is very strong with this one.

Any samples of this? I generally stay away from any such rhetoric. My posts are generally fairly neutral. Although of course I oppose the modern American left.

There really does seem to be no end to the right-wing blizzard of bull**** either online or in the traditional media.

And there’s me thinking I was an economic leftist. I encourage you to join me. We never do see you in posts about the housing crisis (where I strongly support state housing as a search will reveal). . I’m also anti American imperialism and have argued against their involvement in Yemen, Libya and Syria. I encourage you to join me but your views on American imperialism are unknown. You just throw generalised ad hominems, anybody who doesn’t shout American leftism is a right winger.

Bolsonaro's propaganda wars and large scale use of fake "stories" being perhaps the worst offender yet.

Maybe. I strongly suspect that you’ve recently found out all your information about Brazil in the last few hours from Think Progress of similar. If only they covered Yemen, Libya, or Saudi Arabia or other US allies.

I’ve been to Brazil and have an ex over there. Not that I claim to understand the country but I know more than you and your trite Americanised sound bites.

oscarBravo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is a revoltion coming by ordinary people and workers and it won't be pretty.

Revolutions never are, and the ultimate victims of revolutions are always - always - ordinary people and workers. People should be careful what they wish for.

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Shouting at voters doesn’t help, if there’s a genuine fear of crime and it’s not being solved eventually someone will come along and solve it.

You're almost right. It would be more accurate to say that someone will come along and promise to solve it. It's easy to get elected as a populist: you just tell the people what they want to hear. It's harder to stay in power, which is why populism goes so readily hand in hand with authoritarianism. Having lied their way into power, they have to violently suppress dissent in order to hold on to it.

I fear for Brazil. Normally authoritarian populists hide their true colours until after they're elected. There's something positively surreal about a country electing someone on the promise, basically, of authoritarianism.

Nody wrote: »

We're talking cash in suitcase kind of obvious corruption going on there and has for decades which is why people vote in someone from the outside.

The greatest trick the devil Bolsonaro ever pulled was painting himself as a political outsider. He's been an elected politician since 1991. It's as if Éamon Ó Cuív were to put himself forward for the presidency on the basis of being a change from politics as usual - if Ó Cuív were a fascist psychopath.

hill16bhoy

At the risk of link dumping, this is the sort of thing Bolsonaro has unleashed on Brazil. But I suppose, on the plus side, at least he's "upsetting the cosy PC liberal do gooder consensus" or whatever vacuous troll soundbyte you're having yourself.

It's really amazing how the anti-immigrant "white genocide" theorists seem to fall totally silent when indigenous communities in the Americas, Australia or wherever are the ones being persecuted and/or discriminated against.

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1056902877413806080

Franz Von Peppercorn

hill16bhoy wrote: »

At the risk of link dumping, this is the sort of thing Bolsonaro has unleashed on Brazil. But I suppose, on the plus side, at least he's "upsetting the cosy PC liberal do gooder consensus" or whatever vacuous troll soundbyte you're having yourself.

It's really amazing how the anti-immigrant "white genocide" theorists seem to fall totally silent when indigenous communities in the Americas, Australia or wherever are the ones being persecuted and/or discriminated against.

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1056902877413806080

You’re accusing people of falling silent about something that’s just been posted. By you. Probably for the first time.

Conversely as someone who knows something about South America I know this kind of stuff goes on all the time. It’s appalling. However did RTE or the BBC ever cover this kind of stuff before? About the same as Yemen. Nothing.

A few years ago when black lives mattered in the US there were similar incidents in the favelas in Brazil , to utter silence. Same as the incredibly one sided reporting on Honduras. I note in passing that Monbiot was a tepid defender of US imperialism in Syria.