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After Hours Presidential Election Poll

suicide_circus

The polls are pretty one sided so far but let's see where the good people of After Hours stand a week out from the election....

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Roger_007

I am detecting a "kick Bishop Brennan up the ar$e" type of attitude towards this election which will translate into many votes for Casey.
All the other candidates are saying the 'right' things and a substantial number of voters will be thinking that they've had enough of this PC stuff and vote for the candidate who is saying what they hear in private every day.
Casey may not win but his vote could surprise many of us.

DavidLyons_

dav3 wrote: »

Don't be so pessimistic. Look at the poll on here. What with boards.ie full of commie, pinko, leftist, liberal, sjws. The overall first preference vote for Casey should be almost 100%.

dav3 wrote: »

For someone showing such bravado, starting off with 'well if he at least gets 20%' is a bit lame.

Surely he's going to get 100% with every man, astroturfer, woman, child, astroturfer, cat, dog and astroturfer behind him.

You need to show a bit more optimism.

DavidLyons_ wrote: »

I'm getting the nice warm fuzzy feeling that certain elements of society are getting worried that Casey is going to perform really well on Friday.

How will they cope when the cold realisation dawns that their views are the ones that are out of step?

VOTE PETER CASEY NO. 1.

I've already responded to your rather disingenuous and insincere assertion.

No need to repeat yourself.

This is going to be some craic when the results come in and all the apologists for the unworkable, anti-social "culture" realise how many of us really feel.

VOTE PETER CASEY NO. 1.

dav3

tayto lover wrote: »

One man, one vote. You can't have astroturfers voting 3 times.
You're still worried though and that's hilarious.

It's more confusion than worry.

With so many people telling us they're voting number one, along with their entire village and with the results of this poll, why are people so reluctant to tell us he's going to romp home to victory on the first count?

0cp71eyxkb94qf

This post has been deleted.

tayto lover

dav3 wrote: »

It's more confusion than worry.

With so many people telling us they're voting number one, along with their entire village and with the results of this poll, why are people so reluctant to tell us he's going to romp home to victory on the first count?

Because he won't win but a large vote for him will seriously annoy the established parties and RTE and that will be very enjoyable.
Finishing second or third would really annoy them because his vote would show how his opinion resonated with the voters.

looksee

So for the next seven years Ireland has a president whose claim to the position is his ability to 'stick it to them', 'say what he thinks', 'brings a contentious subject to the fore' - none of these are qualities for a president. I agree with a lot of what he says, especially from the angle of 'everyone should be treated equally'.

It is entirely understandable that people who have to work and struggle for what they have should be angry that a section of the population does as it pleases and gets away with it - not only that, but like a parent trying to bribe a child into behaving, opportunities are given that are thrown back - a house is not good enough, a house gets burned down after a death - because its our culture, children get special treatment to get them to school (no problem with that, its essential) but parents don't co-operate - its culture again.

But this is not about any of that, its about the public representative for the country. Its the same thing that happened in the US - stick it to them with a vote for Trump, but then, see what you get. Fortunately our president does not have the power, he is more like the UK Queen, a ceremonial position with responsibilities that have more to do with protocol and diplomacy than having an opinion.

On the whole I agree with Casey on this topic, but its not a good reason for making him president.

wexie

looksee wrote: »

But this is not about any of that, its about the public representative for the country. Its the same thing that happened in the US - stick it to them with a vote for Trump, but then, see what you get. Fortunately our president does not have the power, he is more like the UK Queen, a ceremonial position with responsibilities that have more to do with protocol and diplomacy than having an opinion.

On the whole I agree with Casey on this topic, but its not a good reason for making him president.

And, to be honest, I think that most of the people here claiming they will vote for him would probably agree with that if they stopped to think about it calmly.

Problem is, how else do they send a message?

MrMusician18

dav3 wrote: »

It's more confusion than worry.

With so many people telling us they're voting number one, along with their entire village and with the results of this poll, why are people so reluctant to tell us he's going to romp home to victory on the first count?

It's because 66% is an unassailable lead and it's also likely that Casey will attract No1s from those that were unlikely to vote for Higgins anyway.

But if Casey polls in excess of 10%, I do think it will frighten the establishment and you'll likely see FF go a bit more trumpian to capture the Casey vote.

There is a latent anger out there with how a minority of citizens take the piss out of the system, whether that be some travellers, the likes of the jobstown demolition crew or those with no intention of ever working. I guess we will see how many are actually fed up.

MrMusician18

The genie is out of the bottle now and this is going to form part of the next general election debate.

I remember a time where even talking about travellers in the way Casey did would have thread locks and deleted posts here on boards. The private sentiment isn't new but the public airing is

looksee

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The genie is out of the bottle now and this is going to form part of the next general election debate.

I remember a time where even talking about travellers in the way Casey did would have thread locks and deleted posts here on boards. The private sentiment isn't new but the public airing is

That isn't really true. I agree that modding has changed a bit at various times, but the problem arises when people grasp a topic and go straight into wild and abusive generalisations, offensive language and names and other verbal / written thuggery.

The fact that this discussion has been civil I think has more to do with people realising that you can have a reasonable discussion if you cut out the abusive language, and that means there is an actual discussion instead of it having to be closed to eliminate the mindless, knee-jerk abusive responses.

Casey did not say anything offensive, he raised a topic that is, granted, difficult to discuss without tempers and language getting inflamed, but what he said was that there should be equality, in both directions. I do agree that the genie is out of the bottle, and that is a good thing.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's because 66% is an unassailable lead and it's also likely that Casey will attract No1s from those that were unlikely to vote for Higgins anyway.

But if Casey polls in excess of 10%, I do think it will frighten the establishment and you'll likely see FF go a bit more trumpian to capture the Casey vote.

There is a latent anger out there with how a minority of citizens take the piss out of the system, whether that be some travellers, the likes of the jobstown demolition crew or those with no intention of ever working. I guess we will see how many are actually fed up.

10% would be the figure that take to de Facebook and Joe Duffy soapboxes whenever Travellers get mentioned. I doubt that figure is going to scare anyone tbh.

We have seen almost the exact same thing before after the Carrickmines fire. A raging, hate filled debate (if you could call it a debate) on social media that disgraced everyone involved and then we all went back about our business - damage done.

greendom

dav3 wrote: »

Don't be so pessimistic. Look at the poll on here. What with boards.ie full of commie, pinko, leftist, liberal, sjws. The overall first preference vote for Casey should be almost 100%.

The poll would appear to suggest that it is in fact littered with fascists, reactionaries and racists

Ozymandius2011

greendom wrote: »

The poll would appear to suggest that it is in fact littered with fascists, reactionaries and racists

Many of us dont agree that Travellers are a race. They have the same kind of surnames as the rest of us. They look like the majority of Irish people. Property rights have always been a source of conflict in society, and this is the crux of the issue. Nomadism, in the absence of regulation of access to property and proper dispute resolution, is going to cause resentment. I dont think thats racism. I also note that there are members of this Cabinet who have a record of opposing Traveller accommodation and halting sites, and they didnt get half the criticism Casey is getting.

I personally dont have anything against them as long as these issues dont arise. However family members have been on the receiving end of burglaries by individuals who happen to be Travellers. I personally believe that Travelling is a lifestyle choice to a large extent, though I do acknowledge there is sometimes discrimination in access to Traveller housing. But there are also sometimes an unwillingness by Travellers to accept accommodation that is on offer, such as in Tipperary where some wanted stables for their horses.

Deebles McBeebles

Its always been the case that the president has been a nice little trinket to put on our mantle but without any real power to change things. Can anyone explain if voting for Casey would actually lead to any changes in regard to the issues he has lambasted for speaking out about?

dav3

greendom wrote: »

The poll would appear to suggest that it is in fact littered with fascists, reactionaries and racists

Oh god, don't encourage them, they'll be along with their victim card, telling you it's your fault if he wins for calling them names and hurting their feelings.

Ozymandius2011

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Its always been the case that the president has been a nice little trinket to put on our mantle but without any real power to change things. Can anyone explain if voting for Casey would actually lead to any changes in regard to the issues he has lambasted for speaking out about?

The President's powers are very limited so the most he could do is to refer bills to the Supreme Court to test their constitutionality before agreeing to sign them (he wouldnt have to sign them if the Supreme Court said they were unconstitutional). There is a power to hold referendums if one third of the Dail and half the Senate agree to it, and to refuse to allow a Taoiseach who has lost his/her Dail majority to call a General Election. The powers in the last sentence have never been used, but the referral to the Supreme Court has been (more so by McAleese than Higgins). There is also a power to address the Oireachtas, but Higgins said in a debate this would require permission of the govt (though I think thats more a convention than something in the constitution).

Looking at the history of the thing though, I think that some previous Presidents have had an outsized influence, notably that the election of Mary Robinson began a liberalisation in Irish society on issues like divorce, legalised homosexuality, loosening of laws on contraception etc. The election of Mary McAleese was followed by the Good Friday Agreement.

suicide_circus

looksee wrote: »

So for the next seven years Ireland has a president whose claim to the position is his ability to 'stick it to them', 'say what he thinks', 'brings a contentious subject to the fore' - none of these are qualities for a president.

on that subject, what ARE the qualities of a president?

someone who shuts the fcuk up? someone sits quietly in the Aras to be wheeled out occasionally and doesn't stir the pot with too much truth? Here's a candidate for you;

4068ac1elhodqr

Has there been any polls released as of today?
The only current ones are this (900v) 55%, and buzz.ie (300v) which has Casey at 23%.

Danger781

Which candidate is most likely to highlight the benefits for legalisation of Cannabis? I'll vote for them.

Right now I'm undecided. Mikey D is the 'safe' choice but he hasn't come across well so far (In my opinion.. Not overly involved in the debate, safe or no answer to a lot of questions, now the whole expenses debacle).

Ozymandius2011

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Has there been any polls released as of today?
The only current ones are this (900v) 55%, and buzz.ie (300v) which has Casey at 23%.

The only offline polls up to now are ones that were too late to pick up the aftermath of the first debate and they have him on 2%. My personal view is that if social media are anything to go by, and the phone in shows, he will do much better. I am going to vote for him (I was originally leaning towards Joan Freeman because of her support for mental health services especially in the Southeast, and she will get my 2nd preference).

I have noticed that in Ireland, some papers hold back polls till close to polling day, and I'm not a fan of that if they are not current to big events that have occurred that could sway voters.

ThunbergsAreGo

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Has there been any polls released as of today?
The only current ones are this (900v) 55%, and buzz.ie (300v) which has Casey at 23%.

Sean Gallagher is winning the Buzz one :eek:

4068ac1elhodqr

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

The only offline polls up to now are ones that were too late to pick up the aftermath of the first debate and they have him on 2%. My personal view is that if social media are anything to go by, and the phone in shows, he will do much better. I am going to vote for him (I was originally leaning towards Joan Freeman because of her support for mental health services especially in the Southeast, and she will get my 2nd preference).

I have noticed that in Ireland, some papers hold back polls till close to polling day, and I'm not a fan of that if they are not current to big events that have occurred that could sway voters.

Does seem to be some major difference between social media and the older 2% statistic.

Though there was a new 'offical' poll due out some time today.

No harm in having someone asking difficult questions. From memory the only recent unique issue Higgins highlighted was the future 'gig-economy'.

AllForIt

Elderly mum says she's not voting for MD again and most of her mates at her laddies club say they are not voting for him either. I was bit surprised by that or should I be.

I wonder if there are any fortune telling sheep we could get an opinion from or maybe ask a horse.

Ozymandius2011

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Does seem to be some major difference between social media and the older 2% statistic.

Though there was a new 'offical' poll due out some time today.

No harm in having someone asking difficult questions. From memory the only recent unique issue Higgins highlighted was the future 'gig-economy'.

Do you have any more information on this official poll and whether it included period after the 1st debate last Monday?

4068ac1elhodqr

naughtb4 wrote: »

Sean Gallagher is winning the Buzz one :eek:

Maybe there is a growing appetite for change, any change.

4068ac1elhodqr

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Do you have any more information on this official poll and whether it included period after the 1st debate last Monday?

AFAIK it was due out today, maybe they're still running the streets with clipboards, who knows.

deadlineday

Just spotted that Peter Casey has gone to 40/1 on Paddy Power from 100/1 yesterday.What has prompted this???

weldoninhio

deadlineday wrote: »

Just spotted that Peter Casey has gone to 40/1 on Paddy Power from 100/1 yesterday.What has prompted this???

Money being put on. If Paddy Power sees money going on an outsider they’ll shorten the odds to cover themselves. Must be getting a bit of money of him in the main and the w/o Higgins market

Edit: Gone into 11/2 w/o Higgins.

deadlineday

Have him on both but was very surprised the odds dropped so fast.Cheers

Grayson

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Many of us dont agree that Travellers are a race.

I don't think anyone's said they're a separate race. It's ethnic group. The two things are different.

I just googled and he's a quick explanation on the difference.

https://www.diffen.com/difference/Ethnicity_vs_Race

An ethnic group or ethnicity is a population group whose members identify with each other on the basis of common nationality or shared cultural traditions.

The term race refers to the concept of dividing people into populations or groups on the basis of various sets of physical characteristics (which usually result from genetic ancestry).