So Michael D IS running again!

I just found this poll: http://www.thejournal.ie/poll-general-election-5-4141349-Jul2018/

Fairly even split between each of the years '18, '19, '20, and '21. Ye'd be mad to call an election on the basis of that as "public demand for it". And you'd get a hiding for it if you did.

alaimacerc wrote: »

Sounds like a pretty good reason not to. But also a rather inflated figure -- where's it from?

'Tis terrible, so they are, yadda-yadda. Hardly anyone votes for them at all these days!

Their share of the vote has been in decline for a long time.

Hitman3000

alaimacerc wrote:

... about the best thing you could manage to actually come up with?

I'm sorry, have you a point?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are hiding behind the above excuse (not wanting the blame) but with 45% wanting an election that is just an excuse.

Sounds like a pretty good reason not to. But also a rather inflated figure -- where's it from?

They are at the moment afraid of an election. Pretty woeful for them tbh Their agreed strategy to not run Pres. candidates backfiring a bit too.

'Tis terrible, so they are, yadda-yadda. Hardly anyone votes for them at all these days!

alaimacerc wrote: »

Right now, I think it seems more like a choice between two fairly good options for FG -- muddle along in power, bums in ministerial cars, etc, vs an election with an OK poll rating position -- and between two fairly bad ones for FF. But fine fairly fine shades on both judgements.

Mainly they don't want to be the ones blamed for causing it by the public. For blame and not enthusiasm it would be.

They are hiding behind the above excuse (not wanting the blame) but with 45% wanting an election that is just an excuse.
They are at the moment afraid of an election. Pretty woeful for them tbh Their agreed strategy to not run Pres. candidates backfiring a bit too.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not sure they would. FG seem marginally more afraid to face the public than FF. They both know what a further decline in their share of the vote means and they no likey doing anthing to hasten it. Their share of the vote has been in steady decline for a while now.

Right now, I think it seems more like a choice between two fairly good options for FG -- muddle along in power, bums in ministerial cars, etc, vs an election with an OK poll rating position -- and between two fairly bad ones for FF. But fine fairly fine shades on both judgements.

Mainly they don't want to be the ones blamed for causing it by the public. For blame and not enthusiasm it would be.

Tell me how wrote: »

Yes, but, any ideas on names?

Agree Casey and Duffy out. I think the aforementioned Bertie/Enda might have been touted for their respective parties.

O Cuiv was rather loudly mooted for FF, but the idea fell spectacularly flat.

realdanbreen

AGC wrote: »

Travellers have been invited to the Aras serveal times to events such as garden parties during President Higgins presidency as far as I know, it doesn’t take much googling to find that out.

To paraphrase a previous president, WOW! How gracious of the mighty president to invite travellers into the Arus for a garden party no less!.

Tell me how wrote: »

If, 6 months ago, Higgins had said that he was not seeking a second term, who do we think would have been on the ballot by now?

I still fear that we might see Bertie attempting to become President and also, would rather not see Enda being considered.

Some sort of FF and FG candidate, for sure, yes. Possibly a Labour one too, if they could scrounge up the nominees, which seems far from foregone. (There's certainly 20 non-SF "left" members of the Oireachtas, but normal operating procedure would be to quarrel like rats in a sack over who should get the nom.)

How many indies when then got would depend very largely if there was the slightest bit of party discipline on council nominations. Or even self-discipline. Any party running a nominee would be pretty much obliged to take some sort of action, but whether it would be effective is another matter.

Tell me how

AGC wrote:

FF FG labour would have candidates. SF would have a stronger one and Iâ€™d expect Casey and Duffy wouldnâ€™t be on the ballot paper

Yes, but, any ideas on names?

Agree Casey and Duffy out. I think the aforementioned Bertie/Enda might have been touted for their respective parties.

Not sure about too many other strong candidates.

Maybe Sean Kelly for FG?

batgoat

realdanbreen wrote: »

A 'pretty good friend said...' is all fine and dandy but it doesn't answer my question, how many travellers are employed in the Arus?

It highlights that Michael D is engaged with the community and it's fully verifiable, Pavee Point and his engagements back this up. What you're asking is an unanswerable question tbh. That wouldn't be something that is logged.

AGC wrote: »

FF FG labour would have candidates. SF would have a stronger one and I’d expect Casey and Duffy wouldn’t be on the ballot paper

Not sure they would. FG seem marginally more afraid to face the public than FF. They both know what a further decline in their share of the vote means and they no likey doing anthing to hasten it. Their share of the vote has been in steady decline for a while now.

Jameswhalley wrote: »

If memory serves from last nite is Gallagher the only candidate not taking a pay cut?

Is that the case? PC and LNR named a similar headline figure for what it should be, but would each take less (or donate some or all of it). Depending on whether LNR is halving what she's criticising MDH for taking, or half the full entitlement.

MDH didn't seem to commit to a cut from his current remun, but did point out that he didn't take the full amount, draw down his assorted pensions, donated an unspecified amount to unspecified charidees, and the government should work away if they wanted to reduce the amount.

Freeman would take the full salary, but "funnel it to volunteers".

Can't recall and can't find what Duffy said.

AGC

Tell me how wrote: »

First post in here, so forgive me if this has been discussed.

If, 6 months ago, Higgins had said that he was not seeking a second term, who do we think would have been on the ballot by now?

I still fear that we might see Bertie attempting to become President and also, would rather not see Enda being considered.

Would it have been just these 5? I can't imagine so.

FF FG labour would have candidates. SF would have a stronger one and I’d expect Casey and Duffy wouldn’t be on the ballot paper

Bottom line is that Michael D is exactly the type of person needed for the job.

Educated ,personable and knowledgeable on the arts etc.

I can't say he's ever done much in political life.Its easy being a protest politician all career.

Didn't he vote for the tax amnesty if I'm not mistaken?

alaimacerc wrote: »

Indeed, and it's fairly farcical, but it's a long way way from merger, all the same. We've people on the "opposition" dictating the budget, but not actually voting for it, while we have people "in government" sounding more like the opposition at times, but then voting for it.

... almost everybody but the people reading straight off the SF script? (Honestly can't quite decode this particular cryptic barb, but I have a feeling I might have just been called a FGer, a FFer, or worst of all, an Indo reader. Please specify so I can particularise my hurt feels.)

For purposes of this election? Very little. Riada is a tad more party-political, but that's more of a function of her party ties being gaffa'd over very recently, whereas Higgins' have been gently buffed off over the past seven years. While he swanned around the place being all presidential and stuff (but getting the occasional dig in one the sly anyway).

That they're both cultural-sphere Gaelgoirs, and both from the west (as against the two Dubs and the two Borderers) enhances the resemblance a little.

Tis all about perception and yours is different to mine

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Yet again , no.
Id be interested to see the stats of how many travellers have ever even applied.

It might be the sort of thing that needs active outreach. As opposed to exercises in "OMVG, lazy Travs didn't even apply."

Eric Cartman

alaimacerc wrote: »

And so you can then complain, "OMG, Travellers getting preferential recruitment into the civil service! It's political correctness gone even madder than all the other times I've said it was PC gone mad!"

Yet again , no.
Id be interested to see the stats of how many travellers have ever even applied.

PK is excellent when he wants to be .

But he's like a schoolchild that has to remember to act maturely.Sometimes he forgets and goes renegade.

If memory serves from last nite is Gallagher the only candidate not taking a pay cut?

I'm not sure what's going on with his face though.Has he had a full set of dentures fitted for the race?

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Well the government want us to all integrate them into our society, should lead by example.

And so you can then complain, "OMG, Travellers getting preferential recruitment into the civil service! It's political correctness gone even madder than all the other times I've said it was PC gone mad!"

Tell me how

First post in here, so forgive me if this has been discussed.

If, 6 months ago, Higgins had said that he was not seeking a second term, who do we think would have been on the ballot by now?

I still fear that we might see Bertie attempting to become President and also, would rather not see Enda being considered.

Would it have been just these 5? I can't imagine so.

naughtb4 wrote: »

It would be a bizarre thing to do if he wasn't sure of his facts

One bizarre thing he's done in this campaign among many.

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Higgins pulled many stunts in his long political career, leaving it till the last moment to go back on his word about seeking re-election was just [...]

... about the best thing you could manage to actually come up with?

pixelburp

If what Casey claimed is true, I'm sure it'll come out in the wash. At the same time however, this is the political era of Brexit and Trump: if idealistic cowards or bad-faith politicians aren't bleating 'fake news' in response to questions they don't like, you got charlatans making bold & confident claims that are either inaccurate at best - or just downright lies. A good Lie will be half way around the world before the Truth has its boots on.

I daresay anyone's political career as long as Higgins' will have its fair share of decisions, votes or speeches that could be misconstrued or intentionally warped to suit a narrative - and that's ripe picking for the Outsider as the political candidate. They have no history, no past decisions to scrutinise, and zero responsibility, leaving them free to sling mud from the sidelines with impunity. They're the ultimate hurlers on the ditch.

Peter Casey was on a hiding to nothing between his obsession with the diaspora, an 'Irish Facebook' or just the small fact that he doesn't appear to be a proper (tax?) resident in this country - absolutely open to correction here. 'Spoofer' doesn't seem to suffice, yet he trots out some rabble rousing bullsh*t about travellers and suddenly some folk are falling over themselves to cast a vote for him.

Hitman3000

Jameswhalley wrote:

Also the obvious point that Higgins left little time for serious candidates to contest the election and we're stuck with 3 dragons and SF and ANother.

Higgins pulled many stunts in his long political career, leaving it till the last moment to go back on his word about seeking re-election was just more of his cynical behaviour.

Adamcp898

Hurrache wrote: »

I think the media have misjudged, and continue to do so, on how to report what Casey said. Even this morning one of the contributors to Sean O'Rourke said that it was racist and she feels they shouldn't even be discussing it. They misjudged how a lot of people would side with him, and by continuing to demonise him they only further widen the chasm and play into Casey's hands.

Ah but this is one of those subjects that no broadcaster, not least RTE, will be willing to air any view other than condemnation. A presidential election such as this, or the subject at all really, just isn't worth the furore they'd create around themselves over it. And doubly so for any contributor who hopes to get more work in the future.

I venture to say the closest they'll even come to allowing a "Devil's advocate" is perhaps to let some poor unsuspecting caller on the air to take the fall.

Higgins got nailed with some blows last nite.

PK caught him a few times .Among others the jibe about the 8 years allowed for aUS president to complete their mission.

Also the obvious point that Higgins left little time for serious candidates to contest the election and we're stuck with 3 dragons and SF and ANother.