Capt'n Midnight wrote: » Like I've posted before, last time out Higgins got 2.5 times as many transfers. So even if Higgins got 30% and Gallagher 40%, and even if 6.5% of the votes are untransferable, a 2.5:1 spit would be 17.5% : 7%, Higgins scrapes through. It's like 1990 where Brian Lenihan was 5% ahead and still lost. Except Gallagher isn't 5% ahead.
VinLieger wrote: » It wont affect Ni Riada's numbers but its still not a good look for the party as a whole. Yes probably every party has similar things in texts or emails somewhere about other party's members but having it in public isnt ideal, especially for SF who are usually pretty locked down when it comes to stuff like this.
Matt Barrett wrote: » I think he's saving us from the alternatives. RTE planted the heckler. What's the odds that by chance, of all the people who applied for tickets or were 'randomly' invited, one would be her, the 'comedian' who tried to run? Poor move by RTE. Tacky and cheap. Haven't the dragons cheapened it enough already?
Rhineshark wrote: » How did we get from here to debating only the likelihood of her being offered a ticket without addressing the bit in bold? The likelihood of RTE randomly offering her a ticket is indeed low but it's by no means even the most obvious explanation. How likely is it that a protest candidate who wasn't nominated would buy tickets for a presidential debate? A lot more likely than the average member of the public tbh. She was a spoofer so she's not going to have injured pride keeping her away and she's obviously interested. Her real name isn't "Bunty", and it doesn't remotely surprise me that no-one picked up her real name or her husband's name or whatever. She wanted to go make a fuss and did before being ejected as was to be expected. Given the bunch running, there really wasn't any need for RTE to deliberately disrupt their own show and also look like eejits, especially after last time. Not everything is a conspiracy.
She said that audience members were asked to submit questions to ask the candidates, and she did the same. Although it wasn’t guaranteed that each audience member would get to ask a question, when candidates were “waffling on”, she decided that they wouldn’t reach her question and wanted to leave. A few members of the audience said that Burke’s presence in the studio “seemed staged”.http://www.thejournal.ie/norma-burke-claire-byrne-show-interruption-4289485-Oct2018/
“I went into the packed studio dressed as Bunty at the very last moment, but if anyone from RTE prevented me from gaining entry I would have stood my ground and strongly questioned them on that basis.https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/presidential-election-2018/it-was-just-so-ridiculous-i-couldnt-take-it-heckler-who-interrupted-rt-presidential-debate-37424749.html
Matt Barrett wrote: » I disagree. No conspiracy theory, not that grand, just television.
Rhineshark wrote: » No, what you're suggesting is a conspiracy theory. It's not illegal but it would be damaging to RTE's reputation if true, therefore, in your theory, producers and the studio conspired to get Bundy there to yell one comment and be chucked out to...what, exactly? Attract viewers for a yell off screen and an ad break? It doesn't actually work as "television", therefore it is unlikely it was done because television. Why do you think it so unlikely that she bought a ticket like a normal person (who goes to presidential debates)?
Rhineshark wrote: » it would be damaging to RTE's reputation if true, therefore, in your theory, producers and the studio conspired to get Bundy there
Atoms for Peace wrote: » Just like smeagol was corrupted by the power of the ring into the grotesque gollum in lotr, so to has Mickey D been corrupted by the trappings of power and wealth into an arrogant self righteous creature.
Hurrache wrote: » So instead of sound bites, tell us how? And don't start with the 'he did one term' chestnut.
Atoms for Peace wrote: » Watch any interview he's given in the last year, he reeks of self importance.
Hotblack Desiato wrote: » Given that he's currently polling at 70% he'd have been mad to have stepped aside. Which real candidates would we have got? Frances Fitzgerald - Damaged goods Hard to think of anyone in FF who is old enough to end their political career proper and who isn't entirely toxic. Fergus Finlay wanted a run at it seven years ago but Labour wouldn't back him. Hard to think of anyone else in Labour. SF did run a candidate. Had a hard job finding a reasonably suitable non-toxic candidate. Any 'celebrity' type candidates could have got a run by the same route the Dragoons did. So who?
rovertom wrote: » He got the job on the promise of him not becoming the resident bedridden president - making it clear he would exit after one term. He was being so sly and yet nobody seems to care.
Loafing Oaf wrote: » Plus what power exactly? There should be an inverse of the old "absolute power corrupts absolutely" dictum to be applied to positions like the Irish presidency.
rovertom wrote: » He got the job on the promise of him not becoming the resident bedridden president - making it clear he would exit after one term. He was being so sly and yet nobody seems to care. I have not put any detailed thought into who candidates could be should Michael D not be there
Hurrache wrote: » You're pretty screwed if you expect any of your political representatives never to change their mind.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Matt Cooper says 'Poll out tomorrow that has Gallagher down to 12%' Anyone see it? Link?
Rhineshark wrote: » Doubt there is a link if it's not out until tomorrow. Be interesting to see who gains from it. Freeman (3% mid-Sept to 6% Oct) is the only candidate that strengthened their opinion share (bar Higgins 67-70%) last time. Higgins - 70% (67-70) Gallagher - 12 (15-14) Ni Riada - 6 (7-5) Freeman - 6 (3-6) Duffy - 5 (6-4) Casey - 1 (1-1) Speculative prediction for the poll based on the Gallagher suggestion :P
rovertom wrote: » I have not put any detailed thought into who candidates could be should Michael D not be there however If there is anyone on this thread suggesting that there are not better people in the country than what we've got here, that is laughable.
There a brilliant people all over the country but they will need a party behind them. As the main parties backed Michael D, we lost the possibility of well backed candidates joining the race.
I don't believe it has to be a super well known politician, just backed by major party that isn't SF.
Loafing Oaf wrote: » Figures drawn from that impeccable source, politics.ie:p: Higgins 66% Gallagher 12% Ni Riada 11% Freeman 5% Duffy 4% Casey 2%
