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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

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Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

I guess we'll have to wait for the daily report tomorrow then?

No, they don't give it in that, only the daily average and gust. It will be available in the daily climate Excel file downloads, but probably not for a month or so.

Gaoth Laidir

Thinking more about the 102-gusts at the WT2 buoy 16 km off the Mayo coast, it must be some sort of platform and not a buoy, like the Kinsale platform. It's just a little too high compared to Belmullet and the ASCAT data. There is also another buoy (WT1) located 6 km off the coast and it reached 98 kts, but it too must be a platform as it's only around 10-15 km from Belmullet station.

Donegal Storm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Thinking more about the 102-gusts at the WT2 buoy 16 km off the Mayo coast, it must be some sort of platform and not a buoy, like the Kinsale platform. It's just a little too high compared to Belmullet and the ASCAT data. There is also another buoy (WT1) located 6 km off the coast and it reached 98 kts, but it too must be a platform as it's only around 10-15 km from Belmullet station.

Might be on a rig in the Corrib gas field..?

DOCARCH

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Might be on a rig in the Corrib gas field..?

No, they are buoys for the Atlantic Marine Energy Test Site (AMETS).

Doubt they are platforms, just regular buoys. Similar to this: http://www.oceanenergyireland.ie/Content/Images/Spokes/TestFacility/GalwayBay.png

sryanbruen

If there's one thing I found impressive about Callum, it was how deep it was (in terms of minimum pressure) considering we're only into October.

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1050814049477414915

sryanbruen

In regards to the buoys,

https://twitter.com/kilkennyweather/status/1050829615697137665

Meteorite58

The pressure readings and gusts of the Storm passing up off the W coast. Strong winds in the early morning with big squally showers but but no damage here in Tralee or in the vicinity apart from a few trees and branches down . Very much a coastal event in the end. The front did not produce the projected wind speeds inland even though some high gusts reported in places. I think this is a lesson in that the computers might just struggle a bit with the effects of topography on advancing frontal wind and might be inclined to overstate the wind speeds in this kind of set up.The winds along the W coast were more in keeping with the forecast. The Storm produced plenty of lightning up along the W coast. Good to see the coastal defences working well in Galway, they were needed.

Quite wet here near Tralee had 20mm approx for event.

https://twitter.com/oclarkephotos/status/1050798170299670529

https://twitter.com/Buailtin/status/1050701888734289920

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1050774343133712387

https://twitter.com/PaulQuinnNews/status/1050647059898847232

https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/1050461183566860288

https://twitter.com/patmcgrath/status/1050677777450467328

Must stick up my anemometer again tomorrow, systems failure last night :pac:

ybCOTCb.jpg?1

Darwin

@Meteorite58 excellent summary of the event, hope you get your anemometer sorted!

Gaoth Laidir

Looking at that UK Met Office twitter animation it does look like possible stingjet the way the cloud dissipates to the southeast of the low centre. That area coincides with the buoy locations, so it's feasible that Belmullet lay just outside the core boundary.

Also, the mean 72 knots I showed was I think a 1-minute mean. If you look at each datapoint, the mean shoots up with the gusts, so it stands to reason that we're not talking about the standard 10-minute mean, which was more like 60 knots around that time taking the average of all the readings. An illustration of why the Saffir Simpson scale doesn't really apply to extratropical windstorms. Still, 60 gust 102 does seem like a very high gust factor for a marine location.

Meteorite58

Storm Callum earlier today.

NASA

A7vYzSR.jpg?1

mickmackey1

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Midnight, Valentia gusting 64 knots! stay safe in the South

And yet in the daily reports Valentia's max gust on the 11th was 52 kts and on the 12th was 48 kts. Just shows the hourly reports are unreliable.

Graces7

Local film footage from Belmullet

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/eyewitness-footage-shows-flooding-in-mayo-as-storm-callum-rages-1.3661276

Rhineshark

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Storm Callum earlier today.

NASA

Completely non-technical comment, but beautiful image with the swirling system and the outlines of the islands below.

Amprodude

Rhineshark wrote: »

Completely non-technical comment, but beautiful image with the swirling system and the outlines of the islands below.

:rolleyes:

sryanbruen

MJohnston wrote: »

Anyone know what the max mean winds were?

Well now that a month has passed and the data is in (also time to actually make it), I thought I'd answer this question for you with an edited version of my chart showing the maximum wind gusts at selected Irish stations during several named storms. This one shows the highest 10-minute mean wind speeds at the same selected stations in that graph.

Darwin is king.

Data comes from Met Éireann.

sdanseo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well now that a month has passed and the data is in (also time to actually make it), I thought I'd answer this question for you with an edited version of my chart showing the maximum wind gusts at selected Irish stations during several named storms. This one shows the highest 10-minute mean wind speeds at the same selected stations in that graph.

Darwin is king.

Data comes from Met Éireann.

Interesting to note. 3 speeds there at red warning level for Callum and 4 for Ali which both got orange in those areas. 5 for Opehlia which got one Nationwide.

And 13 red level mean speeds for Darwin. Just shows its size.