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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Graces7

Has the wind changed? went out to look at the ocean which was not dramatic earlier and it is a seething glorious mass of breakers.

Still gusting fierce and loud.
west mayo offshore

Graces7

MJohnston wrote: »

Somehow we have numerous posters going on about how "it wasn't as bad as Ophelia", and yeah, no sh!t!

Ophelia was given a nationwide red level warning, Callum was given a coastal-county ORANGE warning. In other words *nobody ever forecast it to be anywhere near as bad as Ophelia*.

The reason "its no worse than a typical winter storm" is because it WAS a typical winter storm, and an orange warning doesn't suggest otherwise.

we actually did not see Ophelia out here. she turned into the midlands and avoided us..

For me it classes personally as my worst storm stats and experience wise in different ways.

Graces7

and it is not a contest.. just weather which many here sincerely enjoy and are experts in.

sryanbruen

Maximum wind gusts (km/h) (so far for Callum at least) for Storm Callum vs Storm Ali in the same style of GL's post for Ali vs Ophelia, from Ogimet synop reports.

For the majority, Ali had stronger maximum wind gusts than Callum but Storm Darwin is still on top out of the 4 for most stations.

Gaoth Laidir

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

How can you tell what the max gust was at a particular Met station (e.g. Roches Point) during a 24 hour period?

I use this for the synop stations (it doesn't have the likes of Athenry, Newport, etc.)

http://www.ogimet.com/resynops.phtml.en

Meteorite58

Great piece of work there sryanbruen !

Graces7

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Great piece of work there sryanbruen !

as always, and yes re belmullet..

Sycamore Tree

sryanbruen wrote: »

Met Éireann tweets them out.

Met Éireann's daily data.

Met Éireann's historical data.

Ogimet synop reports.

That's how I find them out anyway.

I must be missing it, when I go onto MetE site for a particular station I only see their most recent recording for a station. Can you send a link that would give me the windspeeds across a day for say Athenry?

Gaoth Laidir

ASCAT wind measurements from 22:11Z lastnight and 10:20Z this morning. ASCAT measurements tend to underreport strong winds, so add a few knots to the highest vectors shown.

Sycamore Tree

sryanbruen wrote: »

Maximum wind gusts (km/h) (so far for Callum at least) for Storm Callum vs Storm Ali in the same style of GL's post for Ali vs Ophelia, from Ogimet synop reports.

For the majority, Ali had stronger maximum wind gusts.

I am thinking the very localized Orange warning was bang on so - no station exceeded the 130km threshold and many stations much less than Ali.
Mace Head really sums up the difference.

recyclebin

Anyone able to modify that table to include Ophelia?

sryanbruen

recyclebin wrote: »

Anyone able to modify that table to include Ophelia?

I'll edit the post shortly with Ophelia added to it, I'll also add Storm Darwin of February 2014 for good measure.

sryanbruen

recyclebin wrote: »

Anyone able to modify that table to include Ophelia?

Done.

spookwoman

Waves not as bad as we though they would be this morning in Tramore. The slip wall was knocked in and the prom was covered in debris

https://twitter.com/LeahBurgessIre/status/1050718659503681536

Graces7

sryanbruen wrote: »

Done.

mayo always was a place apart.... storm callum rages on here..

MJohnston

sryanbruen wrote: »

Maximum wind gusts (km/h) (so far for Callum at least) for Storm Callum vs Storm Ali in the same style of GL's post for Ali vs Ophelia, from Ogimet synop reports.

For the majority, Ali had stronger maximum wind gusts.

It's worth noting:

Storm Callum = Orange warnings around the coast
Storm Ali = Orange warnings for Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Louth, Meath, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare and Kerry.
Ophelia = Nationwide Red warning
Darwin = Red warning for Cork & Kerry, orange for Wexford, Galway, Mayo, Clare, Limerick, Waterford, yellow for everywhere else.

I believe the warning level system was revised sometime after Darwin though? Certainly they were heavily criticised for not providing enough warning for some counties.

Also regarding Callum, these stations reached Orange level criteria for gusts: Belmullet, Mace Head, Sherkin, Valentia. Roches and Finner Camp are borderline.

Anyone know what the max mean winds were?

JCX BXC

Wow, Callum had stronger winds than Ophelia, Darwin and Ali in Belmullet!

[Deleted User]

For much of the country, bar the extreme west coast, its Ali that seems to stand out.

pauldry

sryanbruen wrote: »

Maximum wind gusts (km/h) (so far for Callum at least) for Storm Callum vs Storm Ali in the same style of GL's post for Ali vs Ophelia, from Ogimet synop reports.

For the majority, Ali had stronger maximum wind gusts.

Great work once again.

Puts it in perspective .

Nothing much here in Sligo.

Maybe afternoon but its sunny now

ednwireland

i know sw donegal is supposed to get hit this afternoon but to be honest its a great day breeezy but nothing out of the ordinary strongest gust i measured was 6am and that wasnt significant.

if you're getting battered stay safe !

REBELSAFC

MJohnston wrote: »

It's worth noting:

Storm Callum = Orange warnings around the coast
Storm Ali = Orange warnings for Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Louth, Meath, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare and Kerry.
Ophelia = Nationwide Red warning
Darwin = Red warning for Cork & Kerry, orange for Wexford, Galway, Mayo, Clare, Limerick, Waterford, yellow for everywhere else.

I believe the warning level system was revised sometime after Darwin though? Certainly they were heavily criticised for not providing enough warning for some counties.

Also regarding Callum, these stations reached Orange level criteria for gusts: Belmullet, Mace Head, Sherkin, Valentia. Roches and Finner Camp are borderline.

Anyone know what the max mean winds were?

Didn't the station in Sherkin lose power at the height of Ophelia?
I think there would have been a gust similar or even higher than that recorded at Roches point for Ophelia in Sherkin if the station stayed online for the whole storm.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

Anyone know what the max mean winds were?

Met Éireann used to report the max mean speeds in each hourly synop report but for some reason stopped doing so a couple of years ago.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Met Éireann used to report the max mean speeds in each hourly synop report but for some reason stopped doing so a couple of years ago.

I guess we'll have to wait for the daily report tomorrow then?

Graces7

ednwireland wrote: »

i know sw donegal is supposed to get hit this afternoon but to be honest its a great day breeezy but nothing out of the ordinary strongest gust i measured was 6am and that wasnt significant.

if you're getting battered stay safe !

they said noon then 4 pm... sooner or later..

moeblogs

(Pic by Tina Schley)

ednwireland

Graces7 wrote: »

they said noon then 4 pm... sooner or later..

probably get battered as soon a i leave the office then !

Bright blue skies now !

Rikand

REBELSAFC wrote: »

Didn't the station in Sherkin lose power at the height of Ophelia?
I think there would have been a gust similar or even higher than that recorded at Roches point for Ophelia in Sherkin if the station stayed online for the whole storm.

Sting jet formed out to sea and took dead aim at sherkin. The station lost power right at the start of the storm. I reckon we definitely would have seen a higher gust there had power remained

Graces7

ednwireland wrote: »

probably get battered as soon a i leave the office then !

Bright blue skies now !

Yes, the sun is trying very hard to emerge from the clouds.... Callum is intent on staying around as long as he can... stamping his big feet.. the orange alert ends in 40 minutes,,,

nacho libre

A gust of around 80mph at Belmullet station is not unusual at this time of year. It surprising to see that Belmullet did not record a gust in excess of 90mph during Ophelia and Darwin. I guess if this system had tracked just a little further east, gusts of that magnitude might have been experienced. It seems storms in the past used to go up towards Scotland frequently, less so these days.

Donegal Storm

nacho libre wrote: »

A gust of around 80mph at Belmullet station is not unusual at this time of year. It surprising to see that Belmullet did not record a gust in excess of 90mph during Ophelia and Darwin. I guess if this system had tracked just a little further east, gusts of that magnitude might have been experienced. It seems storms in the past used to go up towards Scotland frequently, less so these days.

Yeah I mentioned that the other day, storms seem to be taking a more southerly track these past few years. Before ~2012 nearly every storm seemed to pass just to our north with Donegal, Mayo and Scotland being hit hardest, we seem to consistently avoid the strongest winds these days in Donegal. Maybe just coincidence but its definitely been noticeable