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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Donegal Storm

Fairly rough here on the NW Donegal coast, haven't got any measurements but I'd guess sustained force 8, bordering on 9 with some nice big gusts.

Might go for a drive to the cliffs if I get the chance in an hour

Graces7

DOCARCH wrote: »

:eek: That's 189 km/h

I well believe it!

mickger844posts

Max gust of 87km/h at my Waterford City station and 98km/h in Tramore.
Heavy rain now

www.waterfordweather.com

Thatnastyboy

Getting very wild in mid-kildare here the last few minutes, about the same as it was around 3-4am

Graces7

DOCARCH wrote: »

:eek: That's 189 km/h

Previously in my North sea years, the worst recorded was gusts of 124mph so yes this storm is my personal worst....

Thank you!

Gonzo

a windy night here in South Meath, but gentle compared to Storm Ali which was far more severe in this area. No sign of any large branches down in the area, a few bins over turned.

Widdensushi

Graces7 wrote: »

Previously in my North sea years, the worst recorded was gusts of 124mph so yes this storm is my personal worst....

Thank you!

The storm passed up west of us,there were no winds near that strength recorded on land

vicwatson

DOCARCH wrote: »

:eek: That's 189 km/h

Not a mention of this by Met dude on Sean O'Rourke show just now.

awec

I didn't actually notice a thing in my specific area of Dublin 18, was just like any normal winters night. I think the wind direction spared us.

CJhaughey

Shane O' Malley wrote: »

I think it is right. Got data here

Looking at it again the two highest gusts are at nearly the opposite directions from the other readings. Is that a sign that they may be incorrect?

No the general direction is 190° there are a few at 10° but that's probably the anemometer swinging around after a gust.

DOCARCH

vicwatson wrote: »

Not a mention of this by Met dude on Sean O'Rourke show just now.

Well it is in the open sea/ocean. Nobody will have experienced it....other than the buoy!

CJhaughey

DOCARCH wrote: »

Well it is in the open sea/ocean. Nobody will have experienced it....other than the buoy!

That buoy must be tough, 10mi west of Eagle.
That lighthouse was in the RTE Lighthouses programme recently.

Cork Boy 53

Very wild night here. Electricity,phone and broadband all knocked out, only restored in the last 45 minutes or so. A lot of debris on the ground but no major damage done. Heavy bursts of rain from time to time.

vicwatson

DOCARCH wrote: »

Well it is in the open sea/ocean. Nobody will have experienced it....other than the buoy!

And?

They are the MET service after all.

martyfurey

Shane O' Malley wrote: »

I think it is right. Got data here

Looking at it again the two highest gusts are at nearly the opposite directions from the other readings. Is that a sign that they may be incorrect?

To be honest I'm not sure. They seem like crazy wind speeds.

DOCARCH

vicwatson wrote: »

And?

They are the MET service after all.

The buoys are nothing to do with the Met Service.

In any event, with buoys, sometimes wind reports can be skewed by the position of the buoy on the crest of a wave/swell, or in a trough between the wave/swell, and the wind travelling over/being modified by the waves. As the buoy is not fixed, the wind instrument is not fixed, and, as the buoy is on a couple of metres high, the wind instrument would not be at 'regulation' height.

So while the buoy wind reports are obviously of (great) interest, there are a number of reasons why the Met Service do not (widely) report them.

Gaoth Laidir

Here are the data for WT2 buoy, 16 km offshore. Highest mean speed was 72 knots, highest gust 102 knots twice within an hour.

DOCARCH

Gust of 67 kts/124 km/h at Belmullet in 1100 reports.

MJohnston

Peatys wrote: »

I was going by this post.. he seemed to know what he was talking about..

Glad to see now it was outdated info.. wasn't looking forward to worse than last night coming.

In fairness, it wasn't that the timings were outdated, it was just that the models were ever so slightly off in regards to the peak intensity, for Dublin.

I would argue it didn't peak at 2am though, at least not the entire city - I didn't go to bed until 4am, and it was definitely at its worst here in Dublin 7 at that time.

Gonzo

winds have eased a lot here now but the rain is very heavy and it's very dark.

Donegal Storm

Meh, seems to have peaked an hour ago here in Donegal, still windy but all-in-all a bog standard gale that'll be repeated several times over the coming months. Getting increasingly tired of the hype and hysteria around these events

average_runner

MJohnston wrote: »

In fairness, it wasn't that the timings were outdated, it was just that the models were ever so slightly off in regards to the peak intensity, for Dublin.

I would argue it didn't peak at 2am though, at least not the entire city - I didn't go to bed until 4am, and it was definitely at its worst here in Dublin 7 at that time.

I agree, Dublin was calm at 2am, at 4am it picked up but wasn't anything we haven't seen before. This kind of weather 10 years ago wouldn't of raised an eyebrow.

We are over sensitive now and the new warning system is a bit OTT

DOCARCH

average_runner wrote: »

We are over sensitive now and the new warning system is a bit OTT

I think the nationwide red warning for Ophelia f**ked everybody up!

Much calmer now in Dublin (16) with moderate rain. Almost 4mm in the last hour.

average_runner

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think the nationwide red warning for Ophelia f**ked everybody up!

Much calmer now in Dublin (16) with moderate rain. Almost 4mm in the last hour.

I think the media f**ked it all up and then the people who wants everyone to make their decision for them, eg should i go out for walk!

Look out the damn window and decide yourself:D

Met can't decide for you.

vicwatson

DOCARCH wrote: »

The buoys are nothing to do with the Met Service.

In any event, with buoys, sometimes wind reports can be skewed by the position of the buoy on the crest of a wave/swell, or in a trough between the wave/swell, and the wind travelling over/being modified by the waves. As the buoy is not fixed, the wind instrument is not fixed, and, as the buoy is on a couple of metres high, the wind instrument would not be at 'regulation' height.

So while the buoy wind reports are obviously of (great) interest, there are a number of reasons why the Met Service do not (widely) report them.

So why do they give the buoy data on met.ie? I understand the science behind the buoys ad wind reports btw.

Mount Vesuvius

I like to use this site .

http://www.marine.ie/Home/site-area/data-services/real-time-observations/irish-weather-buoy-network

I find it handy for quick and easy to read observations of current conditions.

Sycamore Tree

How can you tell what the max gust was at a particular Met station (e.g. Roches Point) during a 24 hour period?

sryanbruen

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

How can you tell what the max gust was at a particular Met station (e.g. Roches Point) during a 24 hour period?

Met Éireann tweets them out.

Met Éireann's daily data.

Met Éireann's historical data.

Ogimet synop reports.

That's how I find them out anyway.

Oneiric 3

12 hour sat track of 'Calum' (Icelandic Met Office)

MJohnston

average_runner wrote: »

I agree, Dublin was calm at 2am, at 4am it picked up but wasn't anything we haven't seen before. This kind of weather 10 years ago wouldn't of raised an eyebrow.

We are over sensitive now and the new warning system is a bit OTT

Somehow we have numerous posters going on about how "it wasn't as bad as Ophelia", and yeah, no sh!t!

Ophelia was given a nationwide red level warning, Callum was given a coastal-county ORANGE warning. In other words *nobody ever forecast it to be anywhere near as bad as Ophelia*.

The reason "its no worse than a typical winter storm" is because it WAS a typical winter storm, and an orange warning doesn't suggest otherwise.