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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Graces7

ectoraige wrote: »

Force 4-5 on the cycle to work here in Sligo town, but evidence of stronger winds overnight with a number of small branches on the roads.

How fast is Callum moving now that he's reached land, are these timings still broadly accurate? I'd assume 2/3pm would be peak winds in Sligo, we always seem shielded from the worst of the storms.

still raging here in west mayo, loud as ever. heading for 8 am

irishrover99

bennyl10 wrote: »

Quite bad in Dublin overnight.
Weather dan also change, an orange or any warning isn't a guarantee..

With the high winds and damage potential it was certainly deserved

Where in Dublin. Their was a few gust of wind and it’s nearly completely died down now.

STB.

irishrover99 wrote: »

Public opinion and pressure probably forced that orange alert.
Certainly didn’t desever one in Dublin.

Rte reporting that the storm has virtually passed other than the NW where gust will continue throughout the day.

Public opinion ? More health and safety.

Some people are only happy when there are deaths due to weather. Its like they tie value for money to the events.

redsteveireland

km79 wrote: »

Completely missed us in East Galway
I hope this doesn’t make people around here less vigilant for the next one
I’ve already got a few texts to that effect as I had tipped a few off last Monday about the threat of s storm

If you read the post about timings above it wasn't forecast to be bad around our area until maybe lunchtime today so I wouldn't count those chickens yet, they may get blown away later. Met warning is in place until the evening, unless they revise it.

power pants

STB. wrote: »

Public opinion ? More health and safety.

Some people are only happy when there are deaths due to weather. Its like they tie value for money to the events.

Can you back that statement up please?

thecomedian

Because most slept through it they think there was nothing.
In Kildare around 3/4 in the morning it was a full blown storm, fairly impressive. I wouldn’t have liked to be driving in it.
I can understand why they gave an orange warning on the coast.

STB.

power pants wrote: »

Can you back that statement up please?

Yep.

The amount of people who post on this thread with "nothing happening here" "stupid elevated x level didnt apply to my region" "could have been at work" etc etc

Same whinging that goes on all the time by people who have been inconvenienced by a weather report that didn't hit their area.

The people who think that forecasting is that much an exact science that it should be simple to forecast what is happening in their 1 sq kilometre.

mirrorwall14

There is a separate thread to discuss whether or not warnings are needed or justified. Can we keep this one for the actual technical discussion and conditions?

Whispered

Awake here at 4:45 and could hear it raging outside (co kk) it's still pretty windy here and my husband text to say he's sitting in a row of cars watching the fire brigade move a tree off the road. This was at 7am.

Around here it seems to have been called perfectly. Even down to the time it would hit. Impressive!

power pants

STB. wrote: »

Yep.

The amount of people who post on this thread with "nothing happening here" "stupid elevated x level didnt apply to my region" "could have been at work" etc etc

Same whinging that goes on all the time by people who have been inconvenienced by a weather report that didn't hit their area.

The people who think that forecasting is that much an exact science that it should be simple to forecast what is happening in their 1 sq kilometre.

Oh right, so nobody actually said I,” want to see deaths ? “ Thought you were projecting right enough.

Mr Velo

km79 wrote: »

Completely missed us in East Galway
I hope this doesn’t make people around here less vigilant for the next one
I’ve already got a few texts to that effect as I had tipped a few off last Monday about the threat of s storm

Well i woke a number of times during the night (north Galway) and it was absolutely howling out. Had it been like that when people were out and about I think peoples views would be different.

Pretty calm out there at the moment.

SteelyDanJalapeno

What time are we expecting it to get bad in cork city?

Shn99

No school in Hospital Co. Limerick....No electricity either...will have to get the board games out

STB.

power pants wrote: »

Oh right, so nobody actually said I,” want to see deaths ? “ Thought you were projecting right enough.

Dont be pedantic. You know what I meant.

Back on Topic. Wexford. Wild howling gusts. Large 1.1m dish still on shed wall though. Havent been out on road yet. I'd say trees are down though. If MJs timeline predictions are right we should be seeing the worst of it now.

no.8

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote:

What time are we expecting it to get bad in cork city?

It peaked early in the morning as far as I know and it was rough

happyoutscan

Graces7 wrote: »

still raging here in west mayo, loud as ever. heading for 8 am

Barely a gust in Westport, amazing how weather can be so localised. Stay safe out tgere.

Graces7

Incredibly getting fiercer out here. "whirling wind's tempestuous shocks"

Mu mind is not scared but my body has reflexes I am not responsible for ,,, no easing and if anything worsening in ferocity.

One of my cats is curled up by me, paw on my warm, so relaxed....

SleetAndSnow

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

What time are we expecting it to get bad in cork city?

It’s finished in cork city. Was very bad during the night, woke me up more then once. Along with the sheeting rain, couldn’t see out my window it was so heavy.

Graces7

happyoutscan wrote: »

Barely a gust in Westport, amazing how weather can be so localised. Stay safe out tgere.

Thanks and yes, amazing !!!

offshore island though..

hope everyone here is ok... nothing i can do except stay safe and pray..

km79

redsteveireland wrote: »

If you read the post about timings above it wasn't forecast to be bad around our area until maybe lunchtime today so I wouldn't count those chickens yet, they may get blown away later. Met warning is in place until the evening, unless they revise it.

Yeah I spotted that post last night
I was curious as to the later timing for us ?

BlondeBomb

Has it passed Dublin?

power pants

STB. wrote: »

Dont be pedantic. You know what I meant.

Back on Topic. Wexford. Wild howling gusts. Large 1.1m dish still on shed wall though. Havent been out on road yet. I'd say trees are down though. If MJs timeline predictions are right we should be seeing the worst of it now.

Not pedantic at all, was just checking if you could verify your outrageous claims. You couldn’t

Yes I agree , back on topic....

Whispered

Did anyone else hear about a train from Waterford to Houston hitting a tree? A friend text me, but I can't see any reports.

thomasj

Whispered wrote:

Did anyone else hear about a train from Waterford to Houston hitting a tree? A friend text me, but I can't see any reports.

Yeah Irish rail tweeted about it earlier. Said it was continuing it's journey , but at reduced speed

[Deleted User]

Whispered wrote: »

Did anyone else hear about a train from Waterford to Houston hitting a tree? A friend text me, but I can't see any reports.

I presume it was the tree that hit the train

Rhineshark

Still pretty rough in west Galway, dry and the wind still coming strongly from the South although it seemed to be coming from the west there for a bit, at least by the scientific measure of wind-flattened nettles. Where is the storm at the moment?

fricatus

Whispered wrote: »

Did anyone else hear about a train from Waterford to Houston hitting a tree? A friend text me, but I can't see any reports.

We have train service to Texas now? Cool!¬

:pac:

Monkeynut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I presume it was the tree that hit the train

Maybe the tree fell on the track. The tree was at a standstill then a train hit it. Maybe. Haha

Peatys

irishrover99 wrote: »

Public opinion and pressure probably forced that orange alert.
Certainly didn’t desever one in Dublin.

Rte reporting that the storm has virtually passed other than the NW where gust will continue throughout the day.

Worst not due in Dublin till 8ish

Synode

Peatys wrote: »

Worst not due in Dublin till 8ish

Where you seeing that. Everywhere I look is saying about 12/1 am