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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Sycamore Tree

I love getting ready for bed knowing there will be a storm blowing in the morning. There is something invigorating about waking up to nature at it's wildest.

Rhineshark

A thin whistle of wind starting to be heard down the chimney now. And pitch black outside, not a star to be seen. I can hear the waves down the shore though.

JCX BXC

Wind lower than forecast for airports around Ireland, looks like it's onslaught is slower than expected.

Gonzo

fine calm evening here at Dunshaughlin, hard to believe it's going to be very windy/stormy in the early morning.

Beechwoodspark

Rodar08 wrote: »

See this is where I really want updates. I find when the event actually begins that it gets super quiet on here and other sites. I find it really difficult to get any updates .. sometimes it can bypass us but I’m left looking out the window wondering if it’s still on it’s way lol

I’d like to know has it started, where it’s tracking now, what speeds it’s getting up to etc. how long it’s estimated to be before hitting specific areas etc. Has it downgraded, upgraded. That sort of thing?

Anyone else find updates completely stop when the events start? Don’t get me wrong.. I’m not complaining and I’m always so grateful for all the experts weather knowledge. I’ve learned loads in the last 10 years. I’ve just noticed in the past it was hard to get much info during.

Often times ppl are just experiencing the event and not on this to update.

Can be frustrating yes for sure

leahyl

Went out for a walk at 7.30 and by the time I got back at 8.30 the wind had picked up considerably. So mild though that I was walking in just a tshirt at one point, had to take off the jacket!

Oscar Bravo

Very heavy rain now coming into view on radar off the south west coast.

froog

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1050469503107309568

If its flooding this early..

worrying. although high tide was around 8 pm so will have gone down a good bit by the time the heavy rains come.

i hope.

Oscar Bravo

Pressure dropping away now. Valentia 8pm 992hpa, 9pm 990hpa.

MJohnston

Rodar08 wrote: »

See this is where I really want updates. I find when the event actually begins that it gets super quiet on here and other sites. I find it really difficult to get any updates .. sometimes it can bypass us but I’m left looking out the window wondering if it’s still on it’s way lol

I’d like to know has it started, where it’s tracking now, what speeds it’s getting up to etc. how long it’s estimated to be before hitting specific areas etc. Has it downgraded, upgraded. That sort of thing?

Anyone else find updates completely stop when the events start? Don’t get me wrong.. I’m not complaining and I’m always so grateful for all the experts weather knowledge. I’ve learned loads in the last 10 years. I’ve just noticed in the past it was hard to get much info during.

The 'experts', or even the people vaguely interested in weather, get fed up having to navigate the constant stream of After Hours posts that end up here once the even begins.

There aren't enough mods around for this forum for events, because we get moments like currently where there are a couple of pages of 'chat' posts in this thread now, even though there's a dedicated thread for that.

That all aside, we're also in a dead-zone in terms of model updates:
https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com/
So there's very little new to discuss from a technical perspective at the minute.

HeidiHeidi

I'm in the very NW of Donegal. Eerily calm at the moment (which is to be expected, but weird as it's almost never not windy up here!)

As the wind is due to be from the SE/SW I don't expect it to be wildly dramatic - not sure if I'm disappointed or not. But could be an interesting sight tomorrow morning.

seanjoyce21

ya thats where the saying the calm before the storm comes from.

thomil

Winds definitely picking up here in Ballincollig now, coming from southerly directions, as one would expect. Quite a few decent gusts in the last couple of minutes. Rain apparently starting up again. Pressure still dropping, albeit slowly. Now at 991 mbar.

JCX BXC

23kts now in Cork. Still relatively moderate but definitely picking up.

Hooter23

The main problem with this storm will be the high tides combined with storm surge...which im sure will still reach us even though the worst of the winds will not...

gordongekko

What time are the high tides tomorrow morning?

uck51js9zml2yt

Wind picking up on the mountains in the listowel area.

I just hope I don't do a Dorothy!

irishgeo

gordongekko wrote: »

What time are the high tides tomorrow morning?

13hrs after tonight's tide but it depends where you are in Ireland.

HeidiHeidi

gordongekko wrote: »

What time are the high tides tomorrow morning?

Depends where you are.

Free tidal predictions for all around the country

http://www.ukho.gov.uk/easytide/EasyTide/index.aspx

dmc17

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Depends where you are.

Free tidal predictions for all around the country

http://www.ukho.gov.uk/easytide/EasyTide/index.aspx

I think you need to add an hour for daylight saving on there

Cork Lass

gordongekko wrote: »

What time are the high tides tomorrow morning?

8.15 am in Cork City. I work on Morrison’s Island so not sure how that will work out for me.

billy the squid

Ballincollig

Getting a bit blowy here now. I have air pressure at 993 and falling

HeidiHeidi

dmc17 wrote: »

I think you need to add an hour for daylight saving on there

You do indeed. Should have mentioned that.

Sycamore Tree

Galway high tide at 7:50am. 5.2m which is relatively high.
The high tides today were higher but not by much (7:11am 5.4m).
The sea around Blackrock will be turbulent tomorrow morning to say the least.

happyoutscan

Gone from dead calm to slight breeze in last 10 minutes in Westport.

[Deleted User]

irishgeo wrote: »

13hrs after tonight's tide but it depends where you are in Ireland.

12 and a half actually.

SleetAndSnow

Cork and Kerry officially under an Orange Alert now.

spookwoman

Not that bad in Tramore tonight.
https://twitter.com/LeahBurgessIre/status/1050493310782050307

Cork Lass

It’s getting quite wild in Cork now. Some pretty strong gusts.

lolokeogh

"calm before the storm" here in swords..mild enough out there..thanks to all here for updates and information,much appreciated...