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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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gordongekko

What time are the high tides tomorrow morning?

Hooter23

The main problem with this storm will be the high tides combined with storm surge...which im sure will still reach us even though the worst of the winds will not...

JCX BXC

23kts now in Cork. Still relatively moderate but definitely picking up.

thomil

Winds definitely picking up here in Ballincollig now, coming from southerly directions, as one would expect. Quite a few decent gusts in the last couple of minutes. Rain apparently starting up again. Pressure still dropping, albeit slowly. Now at 991 mbar.

seanjoyce21

ya thats where the saying the calm before the storm comes from.

HeidiHeidi

I'm in the very NW of Donegal. Eerily calm at the moment (which is to be expected, but weird as it's almost never not windy up here!)

As the wind is due to be from the SE/SW I don't expect it to be wildly dramatic - not sure if I'm disappointed or not. But could be an interesting sight tomorrow morning.

MJohnston

Rodar08 wrote: »

See this is where I really want updates. I find when the event actually begins that it gets super quiet on here and other sites. I find it really difficult to get any updates .. sometimes it can bypass us but I’m left looking out the window wondering if it’s still on it’s way lol

I’d like to know has it started, where it’s tracking now, what speeds it’s getting up to etc. how long it’s estimated to be before hitting specific areas etc. Has it downgraded, upgraded. That sort of thing?

Anyone else find updates completely stop when the events start? Don’t get me wrong.. I’m not complaining and I’m always so grateful for all the experts weather knowledge. I’ve learned loads in the last 10 years. I’ve just noticed in the past it was hard to get much info during.

The 'experts', or even the people vaguely interested in weather, get fed up having to navigate the constant stream of After Hours posts that end up here once the even begins.

There aren't enough mods around for this forum for events, because we get moments like currently where there are a couple of pages of 'chat' posts in this thread now, even though there's a dedicated thread for that.

That all aside, we're also in a dead-zone in terms of model updates:
https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com/
So there's very little new to discuss from a technical perspective at the minute.

Oscar Bravo

Pressure dropping away now. Valentia 8pm 992hpa, 9pm 990hpa.

froog

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1050469503107309568

If its flooding this early..

worrying. although high tide was around 8 pm so will have gone down a good bit by the time the heavy rains come.

i hope.

Oscar Bravo

Very heavy rain now coming into view on radar off the south west coast.

leahyl

Went out for a walk at 7.30 and by the time I got back at 8.30 the wind had picked up considerably. So mild though that I was walking in just a tshirt at one point, had to take off the jacket!

Beechwoodspark

Rodar08 wrote: »

See this is where I really want updates. I find when the event actually begins that it gets super quiet on here and other sites. I find it really difficult to get any updates .. sometimes it can bypass us but I’m left looking out the window wondering if it’s still on it’s way lol

I’d like to know has it started, where it’s tracking now, what speeds it’s getting up to etc. how long it’s estimated to be before hitting specific areas etc. Has it downgraded, upgraded. That sort of thing?

Anyone else find updates completely stop when the events start? Don’t get me wrong.. I’m not complaining and I’m always so grateful for all the experts weather knowledge. I’ve learned loads in the last 10 years. I’ve just noticed in the past it was hard to get much info during.

Often times ppl are just experiencing the event and not on this to update.

Can be frustrating yes for sure

Gonzo

fine calm evening here at Dunshaughlin, hard to believe it's going to be very windy/stormy in the early morning.

JCX BXC

Wind lower than forecast for airports around Ireland, looks like it's onslaught is slower than expected.

Rhineshark

A thin whistle of wind starting to be heard down the chimney now. And pitch black outside, not a star to be seen. I can hear the waves down the shore though.

Sycamore Tree

I love getting ready for bed knowing there will be a storm blowing in the morning. There is something invigorating about waking up to nature at it's wildest.

Beechwoodspark

SlowBlowin wrote: »

600ft up in the McGillycuddys NE of Sneem.

Things getting more stormy by the minute windy and showers, and theres a deep roar high up in the mountains.

Backs sore from clearing drains, and I am out of Jamesons ointment, long night coming.

SB

Another poster with a great way with words

Rodar08

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not a colossal amount to update at this point! It's going to get windy....

See this is where I really want updates. I find when the event actually begins that it gets super quiet on here and other sites. I find it really difficult to get any updates .. sometimes it can bypass us but I’m left looking out the window wondering if it’s still on it’s way lol

I’d like to know has it started, where it’s tracking now, what speeds it’s getting up to etc. how long it’s estimated to be before hitting specific areas etc. Has it downgraded, upgraded. That sort of thing?

Anyone else find updates completely stop when the events start? Don’t get me wrong.. I’m not complaining and I’m always so grateful for all the experts weather knowledge. I’ve learned loads in the last 10 years. I’ve just noticed in the past it was hard to get much info during.

SlowBlowin

600ft up in the McGillycuddys NE of Sneem.

Things getting more stormy by the minute windy and showers, and theres a deep roar high up in the mountains.

Backs sore from clearing drains, and I am out of Jamesons ointment, long night coming.

SB

DOCARCH

Over 1200 people on the weather forum now. Be prepared for a breakdown!

yellowlabrador

first strong gust in dunmanway

up for anything

Ah I just did what I should have done in the first place and checked for an update. Sorry.

Although still giving it bad enough. Not sure what the feck to do now.

DOCARCH

up for anything wrote: »

Is this for real?

I think that was the case/was a possibility earlier today, but looks like now that is less likely to happen (....but stay tuned!).

coillsaille

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not a colossal amount to update at this point! It's going to get windy....

True. But when living in a house on a hill looking out at the Atlantic one likes to check in for any mention of track change, etc.

Beechwoodspark

up for anything wrote: »

I've just seen an FB post from the Tramore Surf School saying

Is this for real?

I have to drive to Tramore tomorrow getting there before 3pm and I was gauging that Callum would have done it's worst by 1pm so I could leave then but this new info means that it may be better to travel earlier as the winds might not be so bad then.

Dramatic stuff. Best Left it to the experts at Met eireann.

up for anything

I've just seen an FB post from the Tramore Surf School saying

...that a new storm cell with stronger winds has formed and is giving stronger winds to hit Waterford tomorrow between 12-3. The news sites haven't picked up on this yet. But the storm and sea forecasting sites are giving an average of 15knots stronger wind to hit us tomorrow. So there is potential for winds of up to 150kph tomorrow at lunchtime. Along with a storm surge due to the high tides...

Is this for real?

I have to drive to Tramore tomorrow getting there before 3pm and I was gauging that Callum would have done it's worst by 1pm so I could leave then but this new info means that it may be better to travel earlier as the winds might not be so bad then.

thecomedian

froog wrote: »

speaking of ventusky, what do the weather heads here think of that site's reliability? the UI is great anyway.

Depends on the model you choose.

DOCARCH

coillsaille wrote: »

Not sure if the two threads are clearly enough signposted re techical and chat. Getting difficult to check for any further info or updates.

Not a colossal amount to update at this point! It's going to get windy....

antodeco

This really is a thing of beauty:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-23.09,38.57,708/loc=-12.073,33.624[/IMG]

coillsaille

Not sure if the two threads are clearly enough signposted re techical and chat. Getting difficult to check for any further info or updates.