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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Sundew

Just stuck my head out the door and it has got quite breezy in Sth Galway since I was last out around 7.30. Can hear the seabirds calling. Wish my cat would return from her walk so I can lock up!

moeblogs

The Prom in Tramore closed at 3:30pm today (Thursday) as a result of Storm Callum.
https://www.waterfordlive.ie/gallery/news/341270/tramore-prom-in-county-waterford-closed-ahead-of-storm-callum.html

Damien Tiernan Reporting from Tramore.. https://www.facebook.com/damien.tiernan.9/videos/10155982640210698/

northgirl

Rumblings beginning in Cork City now.

Sundew

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some on this thread have a great way with words

Love to read Graces updates!

ace_irl

It's a lovely night here in Dublin 16, little to no wind and not that cold out. If it wasn’t a school night you could enjoy a few drinks outside. Storm preparations have begun here, the dog has spent the past 15 minutes bringing all her toys inside and securing her food stash out in the garden. It was touch and go there for awhile when she couldn’t find a good hiding place for her rich tea biscuit she clearly stole earlier but all is good now.

It’s a bit strange, everything feels quieter then normal, even the traffic on the M50 is quieter.

I think for Dublin it will be more of a commute issue tomorrow with additional crashes and lights out around the city. I hope everyone stays safe tonight.

gandalfio

Will it have all blown over in Dublin come the school run /rush hour in the morning?

DOCARCH

gandalfio wrote: »

Will it have all blown over in Dublin come the school run /rush hour in the morning?

I don't think so. Strongest winds could be between 4am and 10am.

Graces7

There is indeed a strange intense hush. shivers.

Itssoeasy

The wind has picked up in cork city.

Beechwoodspark

DOCARCH wrote: »

I don't think so. Strongest winds could be between 4am and 10am.

I think the worst of it is forecast pre 9am for Dublin city and county

SleetAndSnow

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The wind has picked up in cork city.

Yep, quite a bit actually pretty suddenly.

froog

from ventussky looks like it'll start getting nasty around midnight tonight.

sparrowcar

Off asleep now, in work at 0400 in Dublin Airport. Expecting a busy morning, hopefully the worst of it has died off before the first wave departures.

heffoo

froog

froog wrote: »

from ventussky looks like it'll start getting nasty around midnight tonight.

speaking of ventusky, what do the weather heads here think of that site's reliability? the UI is great anyway.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1050469503107309568

If its flooding this early..

coillsaille

Not sure if the two threads are clearly enough signposted re techical and chat. Getting difficult to check for any further info or updates.

antodeco

This really is a thing of beauty:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-23.09,38.57,708/loc=-12.073,33.624[/IMG]

DOCARCH

coillsaille wrote: »

Not sure if the two threads are clearly enough signposted re techical and chat. Getting difficult to check for any further info or updates.

Not a colossal amount to update at this point! It's going to get windy....

thecomedian

froog wrote: »

speaking of ventusky, what do the weather heads here think of that site's reliability? the UI is great anyway.

Depends on the model you choose.

up for anything

I've just seen an FB post from the Tramore Surf School saying

...that a new storm cell with stronger winds has formed and is giving stronger winds to hit Waterford tomorrow between 12-3. The news sites haven't picked up on this yet. But the storm and sea forecasting sites are giving an average of 15knots stronger wind to hit us tomorrow. So there is potential for winds of up to 150kph tomorrow at lunchtime. Along with a storm surge due to the high tides...

Is this for real?

I have to drive to Tramore tomorrow getting there before 3pm and I was gauging that Callum would have done it's worst by 1pm so I could leave then but this new info means that it may be better to travel earlier as the winds might not be so bad then.

Beechwoodspark

up for anything wrote: »

I've just seen an FB post from the Tramore Surf School saying

Is this for real?

I have to drive to Tramore tomorrow getting there before 3pm and I was gauging that Callum would have done it's worst by 1pm so I could leave then but this new info means that it may be better to travel earlier as the winds might not be so bad then.

Dramatic stuff. Best Left it to the experts at Met eireann.

coillsaille

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not a colossal amount to update at this point! It's going to get windy....

True. But when living in a house on a hill looking out at the Atlantic one likes to check in for any mention of track change, etc.

DOCARCH

up for anything wrote: »

Is this for real?

I think that was the case/was a possibility earlier today, but looks like now that is less likely to happen (....but stay tuned!).

up for anything

Ah I just did what I should have done in the first place and checked for an update. Sorry.

Although still giving it bad enough. Not sure what the feck to do now.

yellowlabrador

first strong gust in dunmanway

DOCARCH

Over 1200 people on the weather forum now. Be prepared for a breakdown!

SlowBlowin

600ft up in the McGillycuddys NE of Sneem.

Things getting more stormy by the minute windy and showers, and theres a deep roar high up in the mountains.

Backs sore from clearing drains, and I am out of Jamesons ointment, long night coming.

SB

Rodar08

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not a colossal amount to update at this point! It's going to get windy....

See this is where I really want updates. I find when the event actually begins that it gets super quiet on here and other sites. I find it really difficult to get any updates .. sometimes it can bypass us but I’m left looking out the window wondering if it’s still on it’s way lol

I’d like to know has it started, where it’s tracking now, what speeds it’s getting up to etc. how long it’s estimated to be before hitting specific areas etc. Has it downgraded, upgraded. That sort of thing?

Anyone else find updates completely stop when the events start? Don’t get me wrong.. I’m not complaining and I’m always so grateful for all the experts weather knowledge. I’ve learned loads in the last 10 years. I’ve just noticed in the past it was hard to get much info during.

Beechwoodspark

SlowBlowin wrote: »

600ft up in the McGillycuddys NE of Sneem.

Things getting more stormy by the minute windy and showers, and theres a deep roar high up in the mountains.

Backs sore from clearing drains, and I am out of Jamesons ointment, long night coming.

SB

Another poster with a great way with words