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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1050469503107309568

If its flooding this early..

froog

froog wrote: »

from ventussky looks like it'll start getting nasty around midnight tonight.

speaking of ventusky, what do the weather heads here think of that site's reliability? the UI is great anyway.

heffoo

sparrowcar

Off asleep now, in work at 0400 in Dublin Airport. Expecting a busy morning, hopefully the worst of it has died off before the first wave departures.

froog

from ventussky looks like it'll start getting nasty around midnight tonight.

SleetAndSnow

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The wind has picked up in cork city.

Yep, quite a bit actually pretty suddenly.

Beechwoodspark

DOCARCH wrote: »

I don't think so. Strongest winds could be between 4am and 10am.

I think the worst of it is forecast pre 9am for Dublin city and county

Itssoeasy

The wind has picked up in cork city.

Graces7

There is indeed a strange intense hush. shivers.

DOCARCH

gandalfio wrote: »

Will it have all blown over in Dublin come the school run /rush hour in the morning?

I don't think so. Strongest winds could be between 4am and 10am.

gandalfio

Will it have all blown over in Dublin come the school run /rush hour in the morning?

ace_irl

It's a lovely night here in Dublin 16, little to no wind and not that cold out. If it wasn’t a school night you could enjoy a few drinks outside. Storm preparations have begun here, the dog has spent the past 15 minutes bringing all her toys inside and securing her food stash out in the garden. It was touch and go there for awhile when she couldn’t find a good hiding place for her rich tea biscuit she clearly stole earlier but all is good now.

It’s a bit strange, everything feels quieter then normal, even the traffic on the M50 is quieter.

I think for Dublin it will be more of a commute issue tomorrow with additional crashes and lights out around the city. I hope everyone stays safe tonight.

Sundew

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some on this thread have a great way with words

Love to read Graces updates!

northgirl

Rumblings beginning in Cork City now.

moeblogs

The Prom in Tramore closed at 3:30pm today (Thursday) as a result of Storm Callum.
https://www.waterfordlive.ie/gallery/news/341270/tramore-prom-in-county-waterford-closed-ahead-of-storm-callum.html

Damien Tiernan Reporting from Tramore.. https://www.facebook.com/damien.tiernan.9/videos/10155982640210698/

Sundew

Just stuck my head out the door and it has got quite breezy in Sth Galway since I was last out around 7.30. Can hear the seabirds calling. Wish my cat would return from her walk so I can lock up!

Beechwoodspark

Calm and clear in Adamstown. Nothing very notable so far anyway

thomil

Light rain starting here in Ballincollig, Co. Cork, and it is starting to get blustery. Barometer dipped to 993 mbar in the last few minutes.

Let's see how this goes.

Beechwoodspark

Graces7 wrote: »

Darkening rapidly now and anything that rattles in gales is starting its arrhythmic warning. Only other sound is the lead cow mooing as my neighbour leads them to shelter for the night, collie bounding along behind, a sight as ancient as "the whirling wind's tempestuous shocks" Saint Patrick wrote about in the 5th century.

Long night ahead, of battering and winnowing, rehearsing quietly already..

The island has no trees to destroy, no tall buildings. Anything wind can destroy long since gone or anchored down. Often the ferryman will bring his boat in out of the water when gales approach.

My internet connection is coming and going so may not get back here a while. Will see how it goes. As we all will.

Stay safe...

West Mayo, offshore island, a small field away from the great ocean

Some on this thread have a great way with words

SleetAndSnow

Starting to get windy in cork city. Chances of this going a bit further east are still possible I’m assuming? Ophelia did it last second if I remember correctly so anything’s possible. Always prepare!

Sardonicat

randomname2005 wrote: »

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Was just outside and you would swear it’s a night for a grass frost.eerily calm and a grand clear sky.thats in Galway

Same here mid Galway

Already getting blustery in Tralee

randomname2005

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Was just outside and you would swear it’s a night for a grass frost.eerily calm and a grand clear sky.thats in Galway

Same here mid Galway

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1050448953546817538

Doctors room ghost

Was just outside and you would swear it’s a night for a grass frost.eerily calm and a grand clear sky.thats in Galway

Meteorite58

Came fairly close !

https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/1050461183566860288

gozunda

Atmospheric Pressure averaging out at 980 hpa over the last 24 hours. Now just waiting for it to start dropping as storm approaches ...

Gaoth Laidir

Waterford Airport TAF (valid to 4 am) gives gusts to 60 knots.

Purely going on the TAF, Dublin's winds should peak just before the start of the morning rush (55 knots between 2 and 5 am), but may affect the early transatlantics (Boston, etc.). For the rush itself (after 6 am) a slight veer to 190 ° and gusting 45 knots on a wet runway 16 may cause delays for a time. Crosswind limits are greatly reduced for a wet runway compared to a dry one, though it should be drying out fairly quickly as rain is timed to end at 5 am.

TAF EIDW 111700Z 1118/1218 17009KT 9999 FEW020 SCT035
BECMG 1122/1124 16020G35KT
BECMG 1200/1202 15025G45KT
TEMPO 1201/1204 16030G55KT 4000 RA BKN010
BECMG 1204/1206 19025G45KT
BECMG 1207/1209 20020G35KT
TEMPO 1210/1212 20025G40KT

Meteorite58

Could get some thunderstorms up along the W coast

http://www.estofex.org/

ESTOFEX

Northern Atlantic into Ireland

Late in the period, intense cyclogenesis takes place across the Atlantic. The center of a strong storm will move northward west of Ireland. A mid-level front is expected to spread over rich low-level moisture and some CAPE is expected to develop. It is not ruled out that some storms can form Friday morning. With very strong vertical wind shear, small mesocyclones and bowing lines are likely to form, capable of producing severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

northgirl

Same here, stunning day here in Cork City.

Rikand

Hard to believe theres a storm coming at all. Just had the most perfect evening in Athlone