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So Michael D IS running again!

realdanbreen

So when Michael D was campaigning for president and said it would be a one off term he was lying?
Many voted for him because he was only going for one term and wasn't trying to hog the job for 14 years.

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seamus

hotmail.com wrote: »

What do candidates need to get their expenses back?

It looks like most of the candidates will get below 10%. Casey at 1% is too much.

It's kind of complicated. At every count, there is a "quota". This is the number of votes you need to be declared elected.

Anyone who achieves a quarter of the quota, can have their election expenses reimbursed (up to a limit).

This applies at every count. So when you move onto count 2, there is a new quota (as some votes may not have a 2,3,4,5 preference). If a candidate meets 25% of this new quota after transfers, they get their expenses.

And so forth on every count until all the seats are filled. If any candidate is eliminated before they meet the expenses requirements, tough.

For a Presidential election this is easy - the quota is 50% of the valid ballot, +1

So any candidate who gets 12.5% of the vote or more at any count, will get their expenses.

Assuming Michael D wins on count 1, then you need 12.5% of the first preferences to get your expenses. Once all the seats are filled, there is no redistribution of surpluses, or additional counts.

So even if Michael D gets 99% of the vote, his 49% "surplus" is not redistributed. The count is declared, the election is finished.

FrancieBrady

So which one of them is going to get down and dirty in the first full debate tomorrow?

My bets are on Casey...suspiciously like a stalking horse to me.

Loafing Oaf

blanch152 wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#Results

After Count 1, Davis was bottom with 48,657. This number was not sufficient to bring the second-from-bottom candidate - Dana on 51,220 - past the third-from-bottom candidate - Norris on 109,469, so the bottom two candidates were eliminated. 48,657 plus 51,220 made 99,877.

The Norris/Mitchell gap had no bearing because even if you had only eliminated Davis, Count 2 would have been the elimination of Dana, and Count 3 in that scenario would have been the exact same as Count 2 in real life.

This sort of stuff makes me

hotmail.com

What do candidates need to get their expenses back?

It looks like most of the candidates will get below 10%. Casey at 1% is too much.

VinLieger

Hurrache wrote: »

Sean and supporters seem to be getting a little antsy. His Facebook live launch also got ballsed up, the video was horizontal for a while towards the end.

https://twitter.com/ellenmcoyne/status/1050686224069996544

Jesus Jackie Lavin and Bill "im an enrepreneur cus I can sell cars" cullen are involved with Gallagher too? How is that not being made more of the pair are a constant business and PR car crash.

ArmaniJeanss

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is no 2nd seat so they won't distribute a surplus, but they will count all the 1st preferences. If the numbers are as in this poll, that'll be it, 1 count, result declared, Higgins and Gallagher get expenses.

If Higgins does not get to 50% on the first count (perhaps because low turnout by Higgins voters thinking it is over already) they will start eliminating from the bottom, Casey, Duffy, Ni Riada and transferring to 2nd preferences.

They will eliminate enough candidates per count to make a difference - last time Davis and Dana went after count 1 because Davis alone did not have the votes to change the order of the top candidates, Norris went after Count 2, and then Mitchell and McGuinness both went after 3 leaving Higgins beating Gallagher 5:3

[Edit - looking at the results, I realize I do not understand exactly how that works. eliminating Davis could have bumped Norris past Mitchell, but the returning office eliminated Dana too]

If the lowest candidate gave all his next preferences to the second lowest candidate could the latter get past the third lowest candidate? If so you only eliminate the lowest, else you eliminate the two lowest (possibly even third lowest if the same maths applies).

so if lowest is 200, next up is 300, next is 600 then you eliminate the 200 and the 300 candidates.
but if lowest is 200, next up is 500, next is 600 then you eliminate just the 200.

blanch152

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is no 2nd seat so they won't distribute a surplus, but they will count all the 1st preferences. If the numbers are as in this poll, that'll be it, 1 count, result declared, Higgins and Gallagher get expenses.

If Higgins does not get to 50% on the first count (perhaps because low turnout by Higgins voters thinking it is over already) they will start eliminating from the bottom, Casey, Duffy, Ni Riada and transferring to 2nd preferences.

They will eliminate enough candidates per count to make a difference - last time Davis and Dana went after count 1 because Davis alone did not have the votes to change the order of the top candidates, Norris went after Count 2, and then Mitchell and McGuinness both went after 3 leaving Higgins beating Gallagher 5:3

[Edit - looking at the results, I realize I do not understand exactly how that works. eliminating Davis could have bumped Norris past Mitchell, but the returning office eliminated Dana too]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#Results

After Count 1, Davis was bottom with 48,657. This number was not sufficient to bring the second-from-bottom candidate - Dana on 51,220 - past the third-from-bottom candidate - Norris on 109,469, so the bottom two candidates were eliminated. 48,657 plus 51,220 made 99,877.

The Norris/Mitchell gap had no bearing because even if you had only eliminated Davis, Count 2 would have been the elimination of Dana, and Count 3 in that scenario would have been the exact same as Count 2 in real life.

Hurrache

Sean and supporters seem to be getting a little antsy. His Facebook live launch also got ballsed up, the video was horizontal for a while towards the end.

https://twitter.com/ellenmcoyne/status/1050686224069996544

L1011

If it continues to poll as this much of a foregone conclusion, expect any talliers to be trying to count second preferences just for sheer political interest

blackwhite

marieholmfan wrote: »

does Michael D's surplus get distributed or is there no point?
will they keep counting if he passes the cutoff when 60% of the votes are counted?

First count has to be completed to announce an official result regardless.

Once a count is completed in which someone reaches the quota, then that's the end of it and a final result will be announced. There's no distribution of surplus votes, because there is only one seat to fill.

Zubeneschamali

marieholmfan wrote: »

does Michael D's surplus get distributed or is there no point?
will they keep counting if he passes the cutoff when 60% of the votes are counted?

There is no 2nd seat so they won't distribute a surplus, but they will count all the 1st preferences. If the numbers are as in this poll, that'll be it, 1 count, result declared, Higgins and Gallagher get expenses.

If Higgins does not get to 50% on the first count (perhaps because low turnout by Higgins voters thinking it is over already) they will start eliminating from the bottom, Casey, Duffy, Ni Riada and transferring to 2nd preferences.

They will eliminate enough candidates per count to make a difference - last time Davis and Dana went after count 1 because Davis alone did not have the votes to change the order of the top next two candidates, Norris went after Count 2, and then Mitchell and McGuinness both went after 3 leaving Higgins beating Gallagher 5:3

[Edit - looking at the results, I realize I do not understand exactly how that works. eliminating Davis could have bumped Norris past Mitchell, but the returning office eliminated Dana too - thanks to blanch and armanijeanss below for explaining]

Hurrache

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

I wonder was the poll conducted before or after Duffy's car crash of an interview with Sean O'Rourke on Tuesday.

October 3rd - 10th I believe were the sample dates, so would have just about covered it. However I do feel Duffy somewhat escaped lightly with that disaster due to it being shortly before the budget speech.

Chips Lovell

I wonder was the poll conducted before or after Duffy's car crash of an interview with Sean O'Rourke on Tuesday.

He not only managed to torpedo his own presidential campaign but probably did serious damage to his professional reputation as a public relations expert.

marieholmfan

blanch152 wrote: »

They were expecting Ni Riadh to come second, she is a long way from that. Coming fourth would be a disaster for SF.

They are the only ones with posters up around the country, so should be outperforming their normal constituency.

does Michael D's surplus get distributed or is there no point?
will they keep counting if he passes the cutoff when 60% of the votes are counted?

FrancieBrady

CatInABox wrote: »

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1050679745761996800

Can't see this poll changing much between now and election day. A lot of people are quite angry at the fact that there's an election at all, seem to want to punish those who decided to step forward and cause an election to be held.

Proof if proof were needed that the presidency is about character and not party.

seamus

Game over. Unless someone comes out with proof that Higgins eats puppies or something, it's a foregone conclusion. One would have to assume that he would take all the transfers from Freeman and Ni Riada too.

Could Higgins be the most popular president in Irish history?

'Twill be a very low turnout for this one. Two votes on two foregone conclusions.

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Disaster for SF: even if Ni Riada was only getting the support of party loyalists she should be double that vote. Looks like being their Gay Mitchell, completely the wrong sort of person to run for president.

They were expecting Ni Riadh to come second, she is a long way from that. Coming fourth would be a disaster for SF.

They are the only ones with posters up around the country, so should be outperforming their normal constituency.

sliabh 1956

Mr.Duffy at 4 % after his attempt to say MD would not have the energy to assist the country in the aftermath of a hard Brexit what a pompous character he is. Ironically the Poll to day shows the vast majority of young voters support MD put that in your pipe Mr. Duffy

Loafing Oaf

CatInABox wrote: »

A lot of people are quite angry at the fact that there's an election at all.

As I've been saying, I wonder could this anger extend to the whole system of choosing presidents by popular vote. It seems in our current media-saturated world, presidential elections inevitably degenerate into the current circus.

Zubeneschamali

CatInABox wrote: »

SF... If that doesn't improve to the level that they got in the last election, it'll be a little embarrassing.

I don't think Presidential numbers really reflect on GE performance.

Last time FG spent the most but got murdered, yet they are the party of Government 7 years later. Labour are gone in GE terms, but their man Higgins will romp home.

VinLieger

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The threshold is 25% of the quota, so 12.5% of the vote. Gallagher the only challenger likely to get there on these numbers.

Ahh I misread the rules on it.

CatInABox

Just for clarity, the candidate numbers are excluding the undecideds, so the undecided number there is kinda separate. It does seem like a massive disaster for SF, this was meant to be an internal test of their overall electability post Gerry Adams. If that doesn't improve to the level that they got in the last election, it'll be a little embarrassing. Not the end of the world at all, but still.

Zubeneschamali

VinLieger wrote: »

Haha currently none of them are even close to the 25% requirement to receive any money back and hopefully it stays that way

The threshold is 25% of the quota, so 12.5% of the vote. Gallagher the only challenger likely to get there on these numbers.

GLaDOS

The journal are reporting that according to the poll, 55% of Sinn Fein voters would vote for MDH.

http://www.thejournal.ie/michael-d-higgins-opinion-poll-4282255-Oct2018/?utm_source=twitter_short

Loafing Oaf

CatInABox wrote: »

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1050679745761996800

Can't see this poll changing much between now and election day. A lot of people are quite angry at the fact that there's an election at all, seem to want to punish those who decided to step forward and cause an election to be held.

Disaster for SF: even if Ni Riada was only getting the support of party loyalists she should be double that vote. Looks like being their Gay Mitchell, completely the wrong sort of person to run for president.

Hurrache

He might as well put his feet up in the Aras, take pot shots at few deer from the window and tour buses as they stop outside blocking his sightlines, and he's still a shoe-in.

VinLieger

CatInABox wrote: »

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1050679745761996800

Can't see this poll changing much between now and election day. A lot of people are quite angry at the fact that there's an election at all, seem to want to punish those who decided to step forward and cause an election to be held.

Haha currently none of them are even close to the 25% requirement to receive any money back and hopefully it stays that way

CatInABox

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1050679745761996800

Can't see this poll changing much between now and election day. A lot of people are quite angry at the fact that there's an election at all, seem to want to punish those who decided to step forward and cause an election to be held.

L1011

If she lost her seat I suspect she'd be offered a Seanad seat at the next time of opportunity for a Taoiseach's appointee anyway. No idea if she'd take it.

marieholmfan

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If the Gerrymandering up north means Lady Sylvia Hermon looses her seat ...

Good candidate, she could have it in a UI.