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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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happyoutscan

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Eerily calm in Galway blue sky no wind

Same in Westport, no breeze at all.

eezipc

Same in Castlebar. Lovely bright evening so far.

heffoo

For those that missed it.

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/...ead.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

statto25

eezipc wrote: »

Same in Castlebar. Lovely bright evening so far.

Bar some rain before noon here in Ballina but bar that its a savage day

Kerrydude1981

Lovely evening here in North Kerry,very mild now

Was like this as well before the last storm

Deatr

MJohnston wrote: »

As a generic bit of technical information in response to flight questions:
1. Effects on flights won't be known until at best 24 hours in advance, and more likely you won't get a solid answer until within the 12 hour range.
2. You can check it yourself - the TAF is essentially an airport forecast that best represents the info that airlines will use in determining possible cancellations. A site like this:

https://www.checkwx.com/weather/EIKY/taf

Let's you easily see the TAF for any given airport for the next 24 hours or so (they usually extend out to 30 hours). Here's another one for Dublin Airport:

https://www.checkwx.com/weather/EIDW/taf

I always forget what the wind restrictions are for runway operations, someone like JXC might be able to better answer that - I believe it's 50 knots, so if you look at the Dublin TAF, you might expect some disruption between 1am and 6am when there are 55 knot gusts forecast.

Just on this the times in all TAFs are in GMT so you’ll have to add the extra hour for BST for the correct time frame. From experience you can generally add a few knots on to the actual wind when compared to that forecasted in the TAF. Also given that the wind direction in the DUB TAF is forecast to be from 150, they’ll probably use runway 16. This will cause some disruption in operations and in fact as above EI have already cancelled some flights. For those asking about what the impact might be if you’re flying tomorrow morning it’d best to check with your airline.

billy the squid

Air pressure actually rising here in ballincollig. Warm sunny day here too

irishfeen

NetWx-SR Model (Wind Gusts) for 12am

goat2

Here in the extreme south west coast, it is starting to darken and the wind is picking up slowly, we had beautiful sunshine most of the afternoon, now it is changing

Oscar Bravo

goat2 wrote: »

Here in the extreme south west coast, it is starting to darken and the wind is picking up slowly, we had beautiful sunshine most of the afternoon, now it is changing

Looking forward to your reports later

Pwindedd

It's an absolutely cracking evening in Poppintree Park. I'm out walking doggo. Blue skies. Long shadows. Dry air. And barely a breeze.

Mount Vesuvius

Latest Hi Res Arome shows up to 120kph winds penetrating inland. Could be actually a lot of damage from this.

ZX7R

Looks like it is shifting more to the east than expected I believe...

sumtings

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Latest Hi Res Arome shows up to 120kph winds penetrating inland. Could be actually a lot of damage from this.

Gusts but still WOW!

Oscar Bravo

Latest from Siobhan Ryan https://www.met.ie/forecasters-commentary

dacogawa

ARPEGE (10m gusts) saying we should start to feel it properly around 2am in Dublin, the high tide in Dublin is 2:07...

I had more of a feeling from other charts around 4am when the tide was on it's way out.

arpegeuk-11-13-0.png?11-17

Mount Vesuvius

Latest visible image.

sseaNtQ.jpg?1

Mount Vesuvius

sumtings wrote: »

Gusts but still WOW!

Of course Gusts,they cause most damage in any storm.

serfboard

Pwindedd wrote: »

And barely a breeze.

Met Eireann reporting the Wind Speed in Athenry @ 18:00 of 6 km/h.

Some calm before ...

Sycamore Tree

I have never seen such a nice 'calm before a storm'. Lough Corrib looks magical.

Graces7

Darkening rapidly now and anything that rattles in gales is starting its arrhythmic warning. Only other sound is the lead cow mooing as my neighbour leads them to shelter for the night, collie bounding along behind, a sight as ancient as "the whirling wind's tempestuous shocks" Saint Patrick wrote about in the 5th century.

Long night ahead, of battering and winnowing, rehearsing quietly already..

The island has no trees to destroy, no tall buildings. Anything wind can destroy long since gone or anchored down. Often the ferryman will bring his boat in out of the water when gales approach.

My internet connection is coming and going so may not get back here a while. Will see how it goes. As we all will.

Stay safe...

West Mayo, offshore island, a small field away from the great ocean

sumtings

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Latest from Siobhan Ryan https://www.met.ie/forecasters-commentary

I would have liked an invetween data point in the Harmonies high Res for between 1am and 7am. Really good update though.

irishfeen

dacogawa wrote: »

ARPEGE (10m gusts) saying we should start to feel it properly around 2am in Dublin, the high tide in Dublin is 2:07...

I had more of a feeling from other charts around 4am when the tide was on it's way out.

Wouldn’t that not be well in red warning territory?

Graces7

irishfeen wrote: »

Wouldn’t that not be well in red warning territory?

Indeed yes as many have been thinking..

Mount Vesuvius

irishfeen wrote: »

Wouldn’t that not be well in red warning territory?

Top end orange

Storm 10

Lots of French and Spanish trawlers heading for shelter in Castletownbere showing on Marine Traffic

Artane2002

irishfeen wrote: »

Wouldn’t that not be well in red warning territory?

Red is over 130km/h so no.

irishfeen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Red is over 130km/h so no.

Sorry I must be half colour blind I thought that was reading above 130

Artane2002

irishfeen wrote: »

Sorry I must be half colour blind I thought that was reading above 130

Looks like 120km/h to me. It is hard to read but it looks like the 2nd darkest purple for me.

pad199207

The center of circulation is going to be well off the west coast. Just goes to show how large the wind field is.