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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

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Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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ectoraige

harr wrote: »

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

Principal looking forward to a long weekend. It'd be open if if was a Wednesday.

RuthieRose

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Quick scan of the current charts would suggest to me that they are displaying wind speeds up again from the previous two runs. Can see a large swathe of gusts 110 to 115 sweeping up over Munster in the early hours. Also showing gusts 120km/ h + over kerry and possibly Cork. The SE has been increasing in speeds also showing 120+ on the coast, 110 + inland.

I think S kerry / Dingle Peninsula could see around 130Km/ h . The coastal W up again , 130 km/ h maybe more. I think the models have brought the core winds closer to the W coast . Fri Afternoon split in models re strong winds in the S, SE E , will need to monitor.

Next model runs will be key.

When will the next model runs be?
I am trying to plan work. Although inside, they have to drive in high top vans to get to Dublin port during the peak of the storm.
May need to call it off but want to make sure I have all the information to hand. They can't start later either.

Meteorite58

Mod Note Take heed to Mod Team instruction on Opening Post. Dont spoil the thread for others , stay on topic. Non compliance will incur appropiate mod action .
Dont spoil it for yourself.

Magic ]=)

Just noticed that on weather Sat. Callum emerging from the west

https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/visual

ThaitaniumM

I don't see anything out of the ordinary on the GFS.
Where are the 100kph gusts?

pauldry

Not on charts as such but I think remote Coasts of West will be over 120kph

Dont think it will be as high the rest except Northwest will be 110 to 120kph.

Around 100kph elsewhere

Storm 10

Galway City Council telling everyone to be home at 10pm tonight, talk about hype bars and night clubs won't be happy

Mr.H

So i am in Newcastle west tomorrow. Right now as its limerick its only a yellow warning. However its not far from the kerry border. Now im not looking for an excuse to get time off work. But i am wondering how bad could it actually get in this area or am i safe. Gonna be on the road between 7-9 in the morning. Just wanna know if i need to give myself more time or if i should be preparing for an orange or god forbid red warning. I doubt it given the chatter but i wouldnt have a clue with weather charts and technical talk.

limericklad87

Mr.H wrote: »

So i am in Newcastle west tomorrow. Right now as its limerick its only a yellow warning. However its not far from the kerry border. Now im not looking for an excuse to get time off work. But i am wondering how bad could it actually get in this area or am i safe. Gonna be on the road between 7-9 in the morning. Just wanna know if i need to give myself more time or if i should be preparing for an orange or god forbid red warning. I doubt it given the chatter but i wouldnt have a clue with weather charts and technical talk.

I think you'll be told what everyone else is being told..... use your own initative here.......Always give yourself enough time

MJohnston

I'm still concerned about this secondary feature that's showing up very clearly on some models, and completely absent on others:

Mad how little agreement there is on this less than 24 hours out!

Cantona's Collars

The SE looking in line for a fair slap from that secondary system. People could be caught out by that while all the focus is on Callum.

Faustino

harr wrote: »

I am in kildare and just got a text from child’s school saying that it is unlikely the school will open tomorrow and that they will make that decision this evening.
We are only in an orange area , going by what people are saying here and the charts it definitely doesn’t look like school closers are needed just yet.
The media are definitely ramping this up as someone else said if it doesn’t materialise you are at the risk of people not taking future warnings seriously.

I think this probably has more to do with Ali catching people off guard.

It seemed the worst of it was on the school runs and it was certainly dangerous enough to heed an orange warning bordering on red in parts.

Tonight could be just as bad in parts and trees already weakened by Ali could be dangerous coming into tomorrow.

Doctors room ghost

Storm 10 wrote: »

Galway City Council telling everyone to be home at 10pm tonight, talk about hype bars and night clubs won't be happy

They have the big inflatable snake thing up at Spanish arch for the surge and are closing the car parks in salthill

Muscles Schultz

Am I within my rights to refuse to come to work tomorrow and still be paid ?

fryup

**Will this be worse than storm Ali ?? that we had a few weeks back

MJohnston

fryup wrote: »

**Will this be worse than storm Ali ?? that we had a few weeks back

Define "worse"

Doctors room ghost

Muscles Schultz wrote: »

Am I within my rights to refuse to come to work tomorrow and still be paid ?

Depends on what kind of work you do.
If you refuse to go and it’s business as usual they could dock your wages or make you use annual leave.

Fitzo123

I'd say 50/50 on red warning for West/North West Coast. Have a feeling it will track east further.

Rhineshark

fryup wrote: »

**Will this be worse than storm Ali ?? that we had a few weeks back

Not really an answerable question. For instance, where? Ali was awful on the west coast but grand more South and East and the opposite for Ophelia. Which was worse, etc.

Riskymove

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Depends on what kind of work you do.
If you refuse to go and it’s business as usual they could dock your wages or make you use annual leave.

TBH given recent storms businesses should be deciding on their own protocol so everyone knows the score

Where I work, if you make the call that it is unsafe to travel you can take a days annual leave or work back hours in agreement with work. You wont be penalized for making that decision

coillsaille

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm still concerned about this secondary feature that's showing up very clearly on some models

Mad how little agreement there is on this less than 24 hours out!

Met Eir seem to be watching it:

" Elsewhere the winds will abate quite quickly but there is the risk of further Southerly gales returning to the Southeast in the afternoon. "

Widdensushi

Muscles Schultz wrote: »

Am I within my rights to refuse to come to work tomorrow and still be paid ?

Dont go to work,tell your employers that a stranger on the internet said was ok and you should still get paid.

Supercell

Looking at the sat24 loop, is it my eyes or is this taking a more westerly track than forecast?, center seems to be moving NNE currently.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

I've to catch a flight tomorrow around 11am from Dublin Airport

Hopefully the worst has passed by then

Villain

Supercell wrote: »

Looking at the sat24 loop, is it my eyes or is this taking a more westerly track than forecast?, center seems to be moving NNE currently.

Hard to say at first look at Sat I actually thought it was further East compared to GFS and UKMO Fax Chart but it is hard to say.

MrDerp

mark_jmc wrote: »

Hi All,
I'm flying home through heathrow tonight- on the 10.15pm flight to Cork.
Is it pretty much a given that this flight will be cancelled?

It's not a given Mark, but that's a hairy flight in an Orange warning.

I was doing regular 1 and 2 day trips to the UK via Heathrow in early 2014 and got caught out during that winter of many wind storms.

The problem is that, in my experience, Aer Lingus will make an operational call to cancel the flight out from Cork at 20:15 - if there's any risk that their plane might have to overnight at Heathrow. They'd rather have it on the ground in Cork for the morning flight out than have it in another airport and the knock on schedule effect.

Interestingly, the 14:30 today has been cancelled, which suggests there's already operational shenanigans afoot. If they can comfortably accommodate tomorrow morning, or on a flight to Dublin, they will.

On the plus side, you'll know by about 6pm I'd say, because they'll stand down an entire shift at Cork airport. Infuriatingly, you may end up on a bus from DUB to ORK while Ryanair is still landing at Cork.

Play it by ear, but have a backup plan.

MJohnston

Supercell wrote: »

Looking at the sat24 loop, is it my eyes or is this taking a more westerly track than forecast?, center seems to be moving NNE currently.

Bear in mind that the Sat24 image is offset from true north, and probably a bit distorted in order to compose a globe photo into a flat image.

MrDerp

Muscles Schultz wrote: »

Am I within my rights to refuse to come to work tomorrow and still be paid ?

Actually, no. This was well covered after Ophelia. As far as I recall if your employer closes the business without adequate notice, you're entitled to be paid.

nim1bdeh38l2cw

Muscles Schultz wrote: »

Am I within my rights to refuse to come to work tomorrow and still be paid ?

DOCARCH

Winding up now....https://en.sat24.com/en