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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

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Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Burts Bee

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Here in Bishopstown atm and it is pretty windy alright. Been getting stronger throughout the day.

Yeah, very strong north cork too.

sjb25

DOCARCH wrote: »

But....it says....'Hurricane Michael to smash into BRITAIN on MONDAY'

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1029635/UK-weather-forecast-Hurricane-Michael-Britain-latest-path-weather-warning-storm-map

*...sticks tongue firmly in cheek...*

Yes....only remnants of Michael will be here on Monday.

Better go to woodies for som plywood and screws at the weekend so

aisling86

aidanodr wrote: »

Apparently it is very very windy in Cork City centre now. Anyone can vouch for this?

If so is this pre Callum or something else?

Very gusty in macroom also. Caught my attention over the TV a few times.

aidanodr

https://www.met.ie/weather-warnings

STATUS ORANGE – Weather Warning – Be Prepared

This category of ORANGE level weather warnings is for weather conditions which have the capacity to impact significantly on people in the affected areas. The issue of an Orange level weather warning implies that all recipients in the affected areas should prepare themselves in an appropriate way for the anticipated conditions.

Met Eireann ORANGE warning explanation. How vague can you get

.. Did Sir Humphrey from Yes Minister write that

MJohnston

For people who are wondering about any gustiness tonight, perhaps this wind gust strength animation will clear things up:

At the start of GIF is the system currently making it windy across parts of the country, while Callum still doesn't even exist as an organised system at all yet.
Then you can see Callum form up in the West Atlantic and very quickly move across the ocean (helped along by a very active jetstream which isn't shown in the animation) to hit us Thursday evening/Friday morning.
For bonus points, towards the end of the animation you can see the remnants of Michael making their way across too, although at that time range the track is really low-certainty.

I always find animations like this really useful for understanding how fluidly the atmosphere acts and how everything interacts. Also how even storms which are only 24 hours away can still not even exist yet. When you understand those things, you appreciate just how hard it must be for forecasters to get things right (and frankly makes the fact that models can usually get things right to within a couple hundred km really amazing).

Itssoeasy

aidanodr wrote: »

https://www.met.ie/weather-warnings

Met Eireann warning explanation. How vague can you get .. Did Sir Humphrey from Yes Minister write that

Sir Humphrey was vague but he was vague with a bit of pinash.

Mech1

Remember to tune in to my liveatc feed!

Just a service weather update, op's channel is now Tower and Approach only getting ready for the predicted winds.

linky = https://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

Also watch live flight radar here = https://www.flightradar24.com/53.44,-6.06/9

And we are fundraising for needed repairs and general upkeep of the feed, if anyone can donate a few bob click
the link in my signature.
Thanks.

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/MouseCork/status/1050100301032763393

Mid right is the Nano Nagle "walking" bridge over from Sullivans Quay. The White building .. thats its side wall along the quays .. is the first building on left going down the Grand Parade

SleetAndSnow

Is there actually a chance of the Lee overflowing again tomorrow? Been a while now since that happened

MJohnston

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Is there actually a chance of the Lee overflowing again tomorrow? Been a while now since that happened

From the Tweet above I'd say they're probably dumping water from Inniscarra in advance of the storm, but it's also a new moon so there's a spring tide. It all depends on timing.

aidanodr

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Is there actually a chance of the Lee overflowing again tomorrow? Been a while now since that happened

https://twitter.com/kennethnoflynn/status/1050068609748398080

spookwoman

MJohnston wrote: »

From the Tweet above I'd say they're probably dumping water from Inniscarra in advance of the storm, but it's also a new moon so there's a spring tide. It all depends on timing.

High tide in cork was 19.02 4.71m tide

Mech1

RE EIDW liveatc feed,
I have been asked to post the link for needed donations here as it isnt available on some devices.
Sorry for the interuption.
Many thanks for any donations.

link = https://www.paypal.me/tohelpgetthisbackup

And remember this is a weather thread, if you want to comment on aircraft movements etc post in here = https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057555939

xii

Maybe if you explain what the fund is for EIDW? some of us lurkers might have an idea, also for shame, boards in general doesn't like this kind of thing. #derail

Oscar Bravo

He provides an excellent feed for LIVE ATC for Dublin airport, you can listen here www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=EIDW . all needs money to run.mods on the aviation forum have no issues. sorry for derail, im back on track now.

MJohnston

spookwoman wrote: »

High tide in cork was 19.02 4.71m tide

There's another high tide in Cork at 7am-ish on Friday, which coincides with a fairly high period of winds, and therefore swell. I don't know if it's enough to flood though, I'm not sure how vulnerable Cork harbour is to storm swell.

[Deleted User]

A good bit offshore on the 18Z GFS. How much of a storm are we looking at here if this comes off?

MJohnston

GFS 18Z max gusts:

MJohnston

Odd secondary wind feature in the 18Z that seems strike a lot of the east coast much later on Friday:

[Deleted User]

55 kt gusts off the W coast round 10am Friday.

MJohnston

Fair bit of rain too:

MJohnston

Deleted User wrote: »

55 kt gusts off the W coast round 10am Friday.

The scale on that chart is confusing - is it showing knots via the tails on the barbs, and then the colour scale is in km/h?

[Deleted User]

MJohnston wrote: »

Odd secondary wind feature in the 18Z that seems strike a lot of the east coast much later on Friday:

GFS showing a secondary low center developing. Brings another area of strong winds on to the SE coast in the afternoon.

Oscar Bravo

Update from Met Eireann including a first ive seen on the website, a forecasters commentary on Storm Callum

Becoming very windy early Thursday night as storm Callum arrives. It will give strong to gale force southeast winds over land and storm force winds on west and south coasts. See orange warnings and forecaster's commentary on the website for more details. The associated rain will arrive after midnight and will sweep across the country overnight.

On Friday morning the rain will clear the east and it will become dry for a time. Winds will also ease somewhat in most areas, becoming fresh to strong southerly. However in western and northwestern coastal areas it will continue very windy on Friday afternoon with strong to gale force southerly winds. Later on Friday afternoon rain will spread from the south across the country. The rain will be heavy in the southeast with spot flooding and it will also become very windy again in the southeast for a time on Friday evening. Temperatures on Friday will be between 14 and 18 degrees.

Oscar Bravo

https://www.met.ie/forecasters-commentary

Mount Vesuvius

Arome Hi Res showing max gusts. Potential for Fairly widespread damage even though main centre off shore.
Could be a trick or two to come in this one yet.

Oscar Bravo

From the Met Eireann website, great detail on it to be fair. well done to those involved.
Storm Callum is the 3rd named storm of the 2018/19 season. Not yet formed, but later Thursday into early Friday, a rapidly deepening Atlantic storm depression (936hPa), will advance towards the west of Ireland and track northwards, eventually pulling away towards Iceland daytime Friday.

The strongest winds associated with this event will occur during the night-time hours and Friday morning rush-hour commute. Even though the high winds will be the main concern, a spell of heavy and possibly thundery rain will occur too, making for an extremely windy and wet start, with squally conditions associated with the secondary cold front as it tracks north-eastwards up across the country. Possibly damaging and disruptive southeast winds will veer southwest after the passage of this front, with the strongest of the winds set to impact coastal areas.
Additionally there is a concern for storm surge, coastal flooding, and overtopping of waves around coasts, especially Atlantic coasts, due to the coinciding high spring tides. Very high seas are expected too, along with storm and possibly violent storm force winds at sea. With trees still in part leaf, there is a concern for felling as well.

Though the winds will ease down by late morning/forenoon, a sting in the tail will follow, with a deterioration likely again later, as the trailing waving weather front potentially feeds up further pulses of heavy rain from the south, with the possibility of a further core of severe southerly gusts for south, southeast and east coasts towards evening. Elsewhere, however, the winds should remain below warning thresholds.

The other two storms occurred during September and were named Ali (19th) and Bronagh (20th). The highest September 2018 wind speed was a gust of 146 km/h at station Mace Head, County Galway on Wednesday 19th at 08:11 UTC during Storm Ali. Generally, the winds were south-westerly overall during the month. In the previous 1017/2018 season, there were 11 named storms, beginning with Aileen (12th September 2017) and ending with Hector (13th June 2018). This season was notable for Storm Ophelia (2nd storm of the season, after retaining its name under protocols with the National Hurricane Centre in Miami), with a record gust wind speed of 156 km/h observed at station Roche’s Point, County Cork on Monday 16th October 2017 at 10:59 UTC.
In the past 30 years, there has been an average of 6 days per year where storm force winds have been observed at a national wind station.
Wind speed records since 1942 (any month)
Mean: 131 km/h (Hurricane Force) Foyne’s Airport, County Limerick 18th January 1945
Gust: 182 km/h Foyne’s Airport, County Limerick 18th January 1945
Wind speed records during October
Mean: (Violent Storm) 115 km/h Roche’s Point, County Cork 16th October 2017 Ophelia
Gust: 178 km/ Rosslare, County Wexford 24th October 1995

Rougies

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

https://www.met.ie/forecasters-commentary

Nice addition from Met Éireann. This is the type of extra insight we only used to get from interviews on RTE news during red warnings and the occasional tweet of a Harmonie model screenshot. The little historical statistics part is cool too, have they hired sryanbruen already?

MJohnston

Maybe this is just Dublin bias, but I can't remember the last time there was a wet wind storm here. I'm sure it happened last season? Regardless, Callum looks to be both very wet and very windy (which can make conditions worse than just one or the other):

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z showing winds down a notch I reckon keeping the strongest winds offshore , strong winds in the S and SE in the afternoon and possibly again in the E early evening. This run showing the strongest winds in the SW as the front approaches. This would correspond with the ECM easing off a bit on wind speed earlier.

All eyes on the European Hi Res models .