nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

dmc17

aisling86 wrote: »

Two orange warnings, are they anticipating the west coast counties going red?

Looks like a duplicate entry on the old site

GoneHome

dmc17 wrote: »

Looks like a duplicate entry on the old site

It's on the new site as well

eigrod

GoneHome wrote: »

It's on the new site as well

One is until 9am, the other until 12 noon - I guess that's why there's 2.

Mount Vesuvius

GFS mean.

Ha , when I said dodge a bullit I was talking about the strongest winds staying offshore. It will still get windy but not might have been if it stays on this course.

dacogawa

The gusts are still looking mighty strong at 9am pretty much everywhere on ARPEGE, they might extend the orange warming on the east coast later, probably don't want to call it too early otherwise people won't go to work. Going to be a fun rush hour...

arpegeuk-11-50-0.png?10-13

MJohnston

Is this Forecaster's Commentary on ME website new?

https://www.met.ie/forecasters-commentary

Some frames from their HARMONIE:

Mount Vesuvius

If Harmonie is correct, which I suspect it will be. We have escaped Red level alert

ninebeanrows

The wind gusts being progged by pretty much all models for the south -southeasterly associated with the frontal passage are some of the strongest I've seen for such a setup.

nmmuk-11-52-0.png?10-07

Will be interested to see if the numbers materialise.

The passage of the frontal triple point across the country Friday AM could be a focus for some very damaging wind gusts and squalls.

Mount Vesuvius

The not very reliable Navgem shows twins.

Sycamore Tree

Red Alert! The lady on the 1pm News weather report was wearing a striking red dress. No idea what she said in the forecast!

km79

Any updated rain forecast charts

Graces7

Ah well... when you say offshore? matters not as we will wait and see. with the stalwarts of boards ie and met.ie

[Deleted User]

I know it is an Orange warning and not red, but given that the warning will still be in place during rush hour traffic would it be best to delay going into work if possible or would that be seen as dramatic ðŸ˜‚.

aisling86

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I know it is an Orange warning and not red, but given that the warning will still be in place during rush hour traffic would it be best to delay going into work if possible or would that be seen as dramatic ðŸ˜‚.

I think as adults were all capable of making that decision ourselves as all our locations, circumstances, driving skills differ. Only you can decide what is best for you.

I will wait & see what happens during the night & make a decision on kids school then.

happyoutscan

Windguru update showing considerable decrease in wind gusts compared to earlier. 150kph down to 90kph (Westport).

dsmythy

For many areas Ali hadn't made its full presence felt in the early morning. So what seemed like an ok morning turned when it came to home time for kids. This is where a lot of the complaints happened from some quarters.

People should have a chance to look out their windows this time around and assess it themselves for going to work/school.

martyfurey

Could we all just focus on weather and stop filling up the thread with a non related argument on opinions. Let's keep it to the facts and weather related

DOCARCH

martyfurey wrote: »

Could we all just focus on weather and stop filling up the thread with a non related argument on opinions. Let's keep it to the facts and weather related

Yes please!

For anybody who wants to debate weather warnings in general - - - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057918791

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Nothing personal regarding deleted posts....just need to try and keep the thread from derailing before the storm has even formed!!!

sryanbruen

km79 wrote: »

Any updated rain forecast charts

Heaviest of the rain (past 30mm) staying out to the west of the UK where there could be 24-hour totals reaching 60-90mm up to Saturday evening. For Ireland, the most will be 30mm in the southeast which is still a lot of course. Out west, it's not looking that heavy with a lot of patchy or light rain. See what the ECM 12z has to say this evening on the matters.

Water John

Wind today in Cork are very strong but dry. Forecasts don't seem to have given this much attention.

pmct

Does anybody think this could be upgraded to a red warning

MJohnston

pmct wrote: »

Does anybody think this could be upgraded to a red warning

New forecast charts are currently running at the minute, should have updated info in the next 30 minutes from a lot of them.

Snowbiee21

pmct wrote: »

Does anybody think this could be upgraded to a red warning

Not likely I think ME will stick with the orange , depending on the next set of models will determine your answer though

dacogawa

A very tiny bit further west on the new GFS run

gfs-0-36.png?12

Edit: old run for comparison

gfs-0-42.png?6

ninebeanrows

The strong winds for Ireland are associated with the passing frontal feature

The core of strong graidients winds look well west of Ireland

You simply can't go red with a feature like this or we'd have a red alert 3-4 times a winter

MJohnston

ICON 12Z has shifted a little west compared to the 6Z too.

MJohnston

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The strong winds for Ireland are associated with the passing frontal feature

The core of strong graidients winds look well west of Ireland

You simply can't go red with a feature like this or we'd have a red alert 3-4 times a winter

Those core winds are still impacting on the west coast, even with the core itself being far west:

Mount Vesuvius

Yeah looks like major storm for the fish and some strong winds and rain for us as the front passes. Nothing too unusual now.

ninebeanrows

MJohnston wrote: »

Those core winds are still impacting on the west coast, even with the core itself being far west:

Yea im sure we'll get 60-65kt gusts at Mace and Belmullet- happens many times a year