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Any thoughts on Ryanair

Waltan

Any thoughts as to why Ryanair is not performing. Shares at 13.10 today from a high of 15.40. I know they were a bit overvalued but this is getting crazy.They posted decent results so I bought at 13.50 and again at 13.30 last week strongly expecting a rebound. Is it just general market drag?

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vectorvictor

canonball5 wrote: »

Well I also bought in at 14 at the end of August too

Keep in mind that it's massively undervalued and the swiftness of these losses will be corrected (although perhaps medium rather than short term)

While the stock market jitters at news like today's , it also gets a hard on over positive non events like it did a month ago and there will be plenty of positive to come. May / June next year and your €14 will look like a good buy (in my unqualified opinion)

Heiser

Just bought more at 11.40

canonball5

vectorvictor wrote: »

People were buying at 14 recently because they missed out on 13 despite it being fairly obvious that it was a temporary rally.

You did well. Finding the ultimate bottom point will always be impossible but with both forecasts and share price down 12% I would say we are thereabouts.

High 10s or early 11s are possible but that doesn't mean you got a bad deal and at this price point I'd consider what you missed out on as insurance on a killer deal

Well I also bought in at 14 at the end of August too

vectorvictor

JeffKenna wrote: »

Me too...tempted to buy again as it keeps sliding but don't want to overload on any particular share no matter how good it appears.

Agreed. Be cautious on this being the first wave of forecast adjustments if you are looking for a quick win. Long term this is a bet that can't lose if you have the liquidity and patience. They have low to nil visibility on how winter will play out and there will surely be further adjustments.

And I fear they have massively underestimated laudamotion costs.

As it stands this is a dysfunctional business but one with better than average prospects

JeffKenna

canonball5 wrote: »

I thought I got a bargain at 11.88 this morning, it's at 11.49 now!

Me too...tempted to buy again as it keeps sliding but don't want to overload on any particular share no matter how good it appears.

vectorvictor

canonball5 wrote: »

I thought I got a bargain at 11.88 this morning, it's at 11.49 now!

People were buying at 14 recently because they missed out on 13 despite it being fairly obvious that it was a temporary rally.

You did well. Finding the ultimate bottom point will always be impossible but with both forecasts and share price down 12% I would say we are thereabouts.

High 10s or early 11s are possible but that doesn't mean you got a bad deal and at this price point I'd consider what you missed out on as insurance on a killer deal

canonball5

I thought I got a bargain at 11.88 this morning, it's at 11.49 now!

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

How long can she go... how low... indeed.

Katawalah

Hi there,
I've been following this thread for a few week, and I'm now taking the plunge as I also believe there's a window now with Ryanair.
Apologies for the beginner's question, I see that Ryanair is trading on several exchanges : IRL, LSE, FRA, NDQ and XET.
Which one would you recommend to buy RY shares at? I understood the fees are different depending on the exchange, but is there currency exposure as well? Are there any other factors to consider?

EDIT :
Just did a bit of research on Degiro's fee structure. It seems cheaper to trade on the NDQ (but with $ currency exposure). Second is to trade on the IRL, a bit more expensive, but keeping the same currency.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Picked up a few this morning. Will pick up a few more if it heads towards 11.

vectorvictor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

There now! Oversold?

Shaved 12% of their guidance and a few other negative statements. Still think it's a steal and will be a very short term drop to this level

Cute Hoor

vectorvictor wrote: »

looks like we may see a figure starting with an €11 throughout the day.

There now! Oversold?

vectorvictor

StockTwat29 wrote: »

If you look at the share price just before these strikes started, which you could argue was December 2017, it was at €17.

Other than these strikes, there hasn't been any major news that would result in a company losing 25% of its value.

It's not a question of "IF" they will go back up to €17 but rather "WHEN", and it could take some time until these strikes are sorted out

Brilliant value to be had today , looks like we may see a figure starting with an €11 throughout the day.

Yes the forecasts are bad news but this is incredible value imo

jonnybravo

StockTwat29 wrote: »

If you look at the share price just before these strikes started, which you could argue was December 2017, it was at €17.

Other than these strikes, there hasn't been any major news that would result in a company losing 25% of its value.

It's not a question of "IF" they will go back up to €17 but rather "WHEN", and it could take some time until these strikes are sorted out

Surely the increase in Oil prices will have a big impact on airlines results over the coming years. Hedged at the moment but will hit them when hedges run out.

BarraG

I almost doubled my investment with Ryanair after just a few years. Bought shares after a really hot summer and the resulting poor quarterly performance. Of course people stay at home when there is a warm summer but that doesn't stop them flying later. So when the shares dropped, I bought. Sold the shares before the strike craic started...

RedRochey

If you look at the share price just before these strikes started, which you could argue was December 2017, it was at €17.

Other than these strikes, there hasn't been any major news that would result in a company losing 25% of its value.

It's not a question of "IF" they will go back up to €17 but rather "WHEN", and it could take some time until these strikes are sorted out

valoren

Per PEG ratio Ryanair is trading at below fair value on Nasdaq.
PEG is 0.60.
Beta is low at 0.49

Price $96.88
EPS 6.70
5 year expected earnings growth rate is 24.2%

It's a solid contrarian pick at that price. Fair value is circa $130.

VonZan

vectorvictor wrote: »

Nice dip today for those wanting to get in - hanging around the €12.90 mark, could drop a fraction more with this week's events but I think there is going to be some positive announcements in the coming weeks that will get that back up to where it should be.

Might be some positives but these Unions want better pay terms which is going to hit the bottom line along with rising oil prices I think it probably won't recover too much in the short term.

vectorvictor

Nice dip today for those wanting to get in - hanging around the €12.90 mark, could drop a fraction more with this week's events but I think there is going to be some positive announcements in the coming weeks that will get that back up to where it should be.

vectorvictor

vectorvictor wrote: »

I think there's enough volatility to sit tight and hold out for the 13 mark or slightly below. Agreement only reached in Ireland, late bookings are taking a hammering Europe wide, reputational damage and compensation bill is ongoing and many markets yet to be resolved. H2 is going to be a train wreck , with these minor wins being just that ,and I am not overstating that in my opinion.

This is my thinly veiled correct prediction post.

We've had low 13's this week , for those looking to get in I wouldn't be surprised to see a figure beginning with 12 in the week ahead given latest events - will be jumping in if it happens

[Deleted User]

delta_bravo wrote: »

During Oktoberfest by any chance?

Nope........ it was November.
although I booked a January set of flights for just under €70 this morning :pac:

delta_bravo

Augeo wrote: »

Not share price related but I had a look at their latest seat sale.......... the prices are horrendously high even after the reductions are applied.
I fly Dublin to Munich quite regularly, €70 to €130 with either AL or Ryanair would be the normal range......double that now with Ryanair.

A tiny sample size of course but what I'm taking away from it is that they don't have huge amounts of empty seat to flog so as a "shareholder" ( ) that pleases me :pac:

During Oktoberfest by any chance?

[Deleted User]

Not share price related but I had a look at their latest seat sale.......... the prices are horrendously high even after the reductions are applied.
I fly Dublin to Munich quite regularly, €70 to €130 with either AL or Ryanair would be the normal range......double that now with Ryanair.

A tiny sample size of course but what I'm taking away from it is that they don't have huge amounts of empty seat to flog so as a "shareholder" (

) that pleases me :pac:

Wheety

Bought another few at €14 yesterday. Up around 2% already.

jimmyjim11

which is the best stock exchange to buy ryanair for irish investor in /
Ireland 1% stamp lse 0.5% stamp Germany 5 or 6 options on degiro ?

vectorvictor

Augeo wrote: »

I firmly believe the stock market is irrational. Ryanair were in the media lots recently over the strikes etc. Folk were slow to book flights with them in many cases.

There's no such thing as bad publicity however, they'll likely have a seat sale if they need to fill planes. Folk love travelling and travelling cheaply is a bonus.

We might well see €13/share again but I've little doubt we'll see €16 by Christmas.......... it was at that little over a month ago.

I think you are right on the down then up / stabilise but I think it will be late into H1 before we have a chance to see close to €16.

Like you say completely irrational so anything could happen therein lies the fun.

Whatever about shareholders, passengers are going to be big winners with the fare levels I reckon we will see this winter. I'll be one of those ready to take advantage, despite being recently impacted and therein we see the resilience and little bit of untouchability about the model.

[Deleted User]

I firmly believe the stock market is irrational. Ryanair were in the media lots recently over the strikes etc. Folk were slow to book flights with them in many cases.

There's no such thing as bad publicity however, they'll likely have a seat sale if they need to fill planes. Folk love travelling and travelling cheaply is a bonus.

We might well see €13/share again but I've little doubt we'll see €16 by Christmas.......... it was at that little over a month ago.

vectorvictor

Wheety wrote: »

It's flying up at the moment :eek:

Over €14 now. Wanted in again at €13 but I was too slow.

It will temporarily , Ryanair have demonstrated they can successfully negotiate with unions which is a huge confidence boost to the market.

The reality , again only my industry rather than market experience, in the context of the state of the business at the moment this is the equivalent of announcing they have agreed a contract with a new producer of sick bags.

Wheety

vectorvictor wrote: »

I think there's enough volatility to sit tight and hold out for the 13 mark or slightly below. Agreement only reached in Ireland, late bookings are taking a hammering Europe wide, reputational damage and compensation bill is ongoing and many markets yet to be resolved. H2 is going to be a train wreck , with these minor wins being just that ,and I am not overstating that in my opinion.

It's flying up at the moment :eek:

Over €14 now. Wanted in again at €13 but I was too slow.

vectorvictor

Wheety wrote: »

Jumped up a good bit today on announcement of reaching an agreement.

Missed out on the low. Was planning on buying another €1k worth but Degiro have changed their bank details and I had to fish out my banks digipass.

Might still get on it if I can get it for around €14.

I think there's enough volatility to sit tight and hold out for the 13 mark or slightly below. Agreement only reached in Ireland, late bookings are taking a hammering Europe wide, reputational damage and compensation bill is ongoing and many markets yet to be resolved. H2 is going to be a train wreck , with these minor wins being just that ,and I am not overstating that in my opinion.