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Breaky Bitcoin Blues

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I was having the porridge this morning with a few colleagues, and the chat came around to cryptocurrency. Turns out they all got roasted buying bitcoin, Ethereum and other coins during the bubble in November and December of last year. Two of the lads are going to sell their remaining coins this week, and put the whole thing down to getting greedy and falling for a classic pyramid scheme. One other lad (a hard-living Scot) was threatening to track down an ex-colleague of ours and ‘put the slipphery wee kunt in a grave’ for talking the group into buying these coins in the first place.

One of them was worth almost 900k Aussie dollars at the height of the bubble. He was boasting back in December about buying a yacht, moving to Puerto Rico, and shacking up with some local bird with his epic crypto gains. His investment is now worth less than 3k.That’s shocking stuff. You’d hear very little these days about the space in the papers, or on the telly. Did anyone here lose the arse of their trousers gambling on these coins, and did you learn a lesson? Has it any future at all? Was it greed, stupidity, or a mixture of both that caused young lads to throw their savings into this stuff? You’d have to stroke your chin and wonder what they were thinking.

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JJJJNR

zcash/zcoin id say

seamus

Gold actually has tremendous utility as a non-reactive, soft and conductive metal.

If you read upthread you'll notice that I actually compared bitcoin with gold in many aspects.

And you'll also note that the big stumbling block bitcoin has is the cost of transactions. The cost of dealing in gold, will never change. It will move with inflation. So even though the value of gold has been dropping quite considerably for the past five years, there will never become a point where it's cheaper to dump your gold in a hole in the ground, than to sell it on. Its value will regress to the mean over the long-term.

Bitcoin's can't. Because it gets more expensive to sell, constantly. One day, the cost of selling will exceed the value. On that day, bitcoin is dead. All coins deleted, processors switch off, gone forever. That day will be sooner than you think; the promised utility of bitcoin has not come to pass and it's being dumped. When it can no longer be used, prices will collapse in a sell-off, and then kaput.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b

seamus wrote: »

So even though the value of gold has been dropping quite considerably for the past five years...

The price of gold today is much the same as it was in September 2013.

The Bollocks

Cryptocoins are the biggest load of ****e going. I have no sympathy for any thicks who invested in the obvious scam.

Id gladly knock the bollocks outta anyone who tried to sell me this pile of con artist snake-oil ****e,

If something is too good to be true,it usually is.

Trasna1

seamus wrote: »

Gold actually has tremendous utility as a non-reactive, soft and conductive metal.

If you read upthread you'll notice that I actually compared bitcoin with gold in many aspects.

And you'll also note that the big stumbling block bitcoin has is the cost of transactions. The cost of dealing in gold, will never change. It will move with inflation. So even though the value of gold has been dropping quite considerably for the past five years, there will never become a point where it's cheaper to dump your gold in a hole in the ground, than to sell it on. Its value will regress to the mean over the long-term.

Bitcoin's can't. Because it gets more expensive to sell, constantly. One day, the cost of selling will exceed the value. On that day, bitcoin is dead. All coins deleted, processors switch off, gone forever. That day will be sooner than you think; the promised utility of bitcoin has not come to pass and it's being dumped. When it can no longer be used, prices will collapse in a sell-off, and then kaput.

For most of history gold had SFA utility, it became a store of value because it was rare, non degrading and impossible to counterfeit. It's only relatively recently that gold had gotten some industrial uses, and it's not industrial uses that drive gold prices.

The value of something is down entirely to the value people place on it, whether that be a stock, crypto coin, gold or painting.

Nothing is intrinsically valuable

asteroids over berlin

seamus wrote: »

Keep talking it up, sure it's only just begun! One day soon we'll be scanning our bitcoin wallets to pay for that chocolate bar, and it'll only take 3 hours for the transaction to go through!

Your equivalence to burning 50 quid belies your ignorance on the topic. Notes are continually recycled and replenished, money is continually injected into the cycle. Burning a 50 note doesn't affect the amount in circulation over the medium to long term. Deleting a bitcoin, does.

there is your ignorance right there, at least the transactions are all on the blockchain and noted, where as with Fiat, you can take out the printing press (RECYCLE AND REPLENISH :pac:) and print more money and contribute to your country burying itself in NATIONAL debt - attention USA!! Of course there won't be another stock market crash lol.

Cryptos/Bitcoin are an on going project and have yet to come to fruition, they need to be refined, nobody denies that, similar to the internet, amazon, google, microsoft - all from humble beginnings. anyway, i am not wasting more time on this. regards

asteroids over berlin

seamus wrote: »

Gold actually has tremendous utility as a non-reactive, soft and conductive metal.

If you read upthread you'll notice that I actually compared bitcoin with gold in many aspects.

And you'll also note that the big stumbling block bitcoin has is the cost of transactions. The cost of dealing in gold, will never change. It will move with inflation. So even though the value of gold has been dropping quite considerably for the past five years, there will never become a point where it's cheaper to dump your gold in a hole in the ground, than to sell it on. Its value will regress to the mean over the long-term.

Bitcoin's can't. Because it gets more expensive to sell, constantly. One day, the cost of selling will exceed the value. On that day, bitcoin is dead. All coins deleted, processors switch off, gone forever. That day will be sooner than you think; the promised utility of bitcoin has not come to pass and it's being dumped. When it can no longer be used, prices will collapse in a sell-off, and then kaput.

more b****x

RIGOLO

Emmaline Crooked Penny wrote: »

A month ago, the media reported that a chicken in Venezuela cost around 14.6 million bolivars.

It's far from a "fantasy world" when inflation is running at around 1 million percent per annum.

The key benefit of bitcoin is that neither governments nor anyone else can create infinite amounts of it.

APPLE did their new product launch yesterday , I didnt see chickens getting a mention .

Zimbabwe and Venezuala ripe for crytocurrencies, yeah right, they cant afford a f'ing chicken but everyone has 4G access, smart phones and digital wallets .....

JohnnyFlash

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

more b****x

That seems to the debating style of most crypto disciples. Denial and hostility.

Bitcoin isn’t being used for payments. It’s doomed because it uses a stunning amount of electricity and will use eve more of it. One bitcoin transaction uses the same amount of energy as almost 900k visa transactions. The price is being kept afloat by washing billions of fake dollars through the system each day (Tether). It’s just a bad idea badly implemented. It only appeals to libertarian weirdos and people who wanted to get rich quickly without having to work hard to do so.

JohnnyFlash

RIGOLO wrote: »

APPLE did their new product launch yesterday , I didnt see chickens getting a mention .

Zimbabwe and Venezuala ripe for crytocurrencies, yeah right, they cant afford a f'ing chicken but everyone has 4G access, smart phones and digital wallets .....

Keep away from the sewers of Crypto Twitter then. You’ll get videos of young male American psychopaths in Venezuela trying to pretend crypto usage is exploding there. Standing outside a restaurant pretending they have paid for a meal in Bitcoin Cash or Dash while you can almost see the desperation in the eyes of the owner standing beside them. All so they can pump their bags. It’s not working of course, but the manipulation of desperate humans like that is sickening.

valoren

How can you even determine fair value for a bitcoin?
How do you even set an entry point to trade it?

There's not enough data to do any reasonable back testing.
It is an idea that was speculated through nothing but greed and FOMO to the moon and is coming back to earth due to profit taking and volatility fears.

JohnnyFlash

valoren wrote: »

How can you even determine fair value for a bitcoin?
How do you even set an entry point to trade it?

There's not enough data to do any reasonable back testing.
It is an idea that was speculated through nothing but greed and FOMO to the moon and is coming back to earth due to profit taking and volatility fears.

There’s people who claim technical analysis works. It’s the crypto equivalent of reading tea leaves, but true believers won’t hear a bad word said about it. Despite it just not working.

Woke Hogan

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Yeah because in this fantasy world where the global financial system crashes and currencies have ceased to function the viable alternative is a complex crypto currency that requires a massive amount of computing power and electricity to maintain. Makes sense... :rolleyes:

Somehow I don't think bitcoin will be the currency du jour in your fantasy mad max world.

Good lad.

When the crypto acolytes dreams of killing the planet come to fruition, and their grandchildren will be engaged in land-wars over the only hospitable parts of the globe, they won't be dealing in Bitcoin. They will be dealing their sons and daughters like livestock to survive, no difference from how their grandparents sold out their children for grubby pennies.

kerplun k

valoren wrote: »

There's not enough data to do any reasonable back testing...

How can you even determine fair value for a bitcoin?
Here

How do you even set an entry point to trade it?
If you like the technology, and are curious, you can buy any amount of bitcoin in exchange for your Euro

How does it even work as an 'investment'?
Its not an investment,

Do I actually own it?
Yes, if you buy bitcoin, its yours.

Can I spend it?
Yes, book yourself a hotel on Expedia or buy yourself something nice from Gyft. want cash?.... convert your bitcoin to Euro, transfer to your bank account and withdraw.

seamus

Emmaline Crooked Penny wrote: »

The price of gold today is much the same as it was in September 2013.

Inflation-adjusted, it's 5-10% down on September 2013 and hasn't been recovering in any way in that time, just slowly trickling downward.

This is just a correction on the major gold bubble that existed in the wake of the financial crisis. I recall people back then claiming that gold would never devalue, even while there were vending machines popping up in airports selling gold bars. A 33% drop later and people's talk about the surity of gold has disappeared.

Gold will come back up, of course. It has utility, intrinsic value.

Bitcoin won't.

Woke Hogan

Trasna1 wrote: »

It's utility is a store of value because of the value we place on it.

Yeah, because it's valuable.

TheIrishGrover

While I have some sympathy for the people who were duped into Bitcoin et al, I have no sympathy for those who are still banging that drum. They are doing so in the vain attempt to get the value back up again, KNOWING that it's not legitimate.

Do I think the initial creator designed this as a pyramid scheme? No, I don't think so. I think it was a thought experiment that never should have seen the light of day. But, bar people actually involved/invested in crypto-currency, I don't believe anyone thinks it's anything more than a high-tech pyramid scheme now.

Is there a place for an independent currency? Possibly. But everything need a solid foundation/reference point which these do not have. They need a "gold standard" and a solid foundation needs consensus which is where the independent nature of the currency would end.

For the defenders: Ignoring the crash, how can one claim that a currency is stable and legitimate when it's value rises by factors of tens and hundreds in months? Didn't you think: Hang on, this can't be real. I mean if it was that easy to multiply your money by 10 or 100 or 1000 then why wasn't everyone doing it?

I mean even after the property crash there was intrinsic value in a house: The land was worth X amount per square meter, bricks and glass and wiring all have some intrinsic cash value. Sure, the value actually went below cost at one stage but there was a limit. There is no bottom limit to crypto because there is no base. It's vapour.

Ipso

TheIrishGrover wrote: »

While I have some sympathy for the people who were duped into Bitcoin et al, I have no sympathy for those who are still banging that drum. They are doing so in the vain attempt to get the value back up again, KNOWING that it's not legitimate.

Do I think the initial creator designed this as a pyramid scheme? No, I don't think so. I think it was a thought experiment that never should have seen the light of day. But, bar people actually involved/invested in crypto-currency, I don't believe anyone thinks it's anything more than a high-tech pyramid scheme now.

Is there a place for an independent currency? Possibly. But everything need a solid foundation/reference point which these do not have. They need a "gold standard" and a solid foundation needs consensus which is where the independent nature of the currency would end.

For the defenders: Ignoring the crash, how can one claim that a currency is stable and legitimate when it's value rises by factors of tens and hundreds in months? Didn't you think: Hang on, this can't be real. I mean if it was that easy to multiply your money by 10 or 100 or 1000 then why wasn't everyone doing it?

I mean even after the property crash there was intrinsic value in a house: The land was worth X amount per square meter, bricks and glass and wiring all have some intrinsic cash value. Sure, the value actually went below cost at one stage but there was a limit. There is no bottom limit to crypto because there is no base. It's vapour.

Well regular currencies can fluctuate, but obviously not at those multiples.
To me it seemed that the people who got into it didn't do it for the reasons you'd by a currency, but they were treating it as a stock (again people can do this with regular currencies, but this was more for stock trading).

What really drove the price last year? Was it people wanting a currency for when the apocalypse happened or for speculative reasons?

Samsong

CNBC are currently showing a weekly program name 'advancments". The show covers emerging technologies such as Ai and the internet of things. The episode airing at730 am Irish time will see them travel the Shanghai to visit the office of vechain.

Watch it

Austria!

I'm sceptical about much of this space but some of the criticism in this thread looks a little unhinged

TheIrishGrover wrote: »

l, I have no sympathy for those who are still banging that drum. They are doing so in the vain attempt to get the value back up again, KNOWING that it's not legitimate.

So you're a mind reader?

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

There’s people who claim technical analysis works. It’s the crypto equivalent of reading tea leaves,

Technical analysis is used by stock market traders, it's not exclusive to crypto at all.

StinkyMunkey

No doubt this thread will become dormant at some stage. I wonder how long before the arse falls out of this bitcoin craze and people pop back in the say "told you so".

To flog the same horse again. With a pyramid scheme, because people invest at the start, there are assets to produce a return. But by the end, the vanguard have left with all the spoils. Meaning the poor bastards investing towards the end are hoping for a return to materlise out of thin air.

So why is a the bitcoin craze different? Granted it's infinitely more complicated, but the principle seems the same! Am I missing something?

I'll admit I'm not the sharpest tool in the box, but bitcoin just screams scam to me..............

Samsong

StinkyMunkey wrote: »

No doubt this thread will become dormant at some stage. I wonder how long before the arse falls out of this bitcoin craze and people pop back in the say "told you so".

To flog the same horse again. With a pyramid scheme, because people invest at the start, there are assets to produce a return. But by the end, the vanguard have left with all the spoils. Meaning the poor bastards investing towards the end are hoping for a return to materlise out of thin air.

So why is a the bitcoin craze different? Granted it's infinitely more complicated, but the principle seems the same! Am I missing something?

I'll admit I'm not the sharpest tool in the box, but bitcoin just screams scam to me..............

I will send you a message in 5 years from today.
Buy vechain now. You can thank me then

badtoro

I've dabbled a little. Admittedly if I'd sold up a few months ago I'd have made something like 5x profits..... But I didn't. The way I must look at it now is either I sell now and realise a loss, or hope (yup, solid strategy right there) the situation improves.

My experience is that I've never encountered a sphere filled with so many scammers, liars, and drama queens. It's almost been worth it for the entertainment over a couple of months period in particular with one French scammer from Canada and his discord.

The wisest piece of advice is don't invest in crypto. The second wisest piece of advice is don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

Why? Just look at what happened (I haven't checked recently) to WaltonChain when they outed themselves scamming a prize draw. Or their cluste**** Alibaba partnership that wasn't announcement. Or Mt Gox aftermath. Or, or, or..... Hyper volatility does indeed lead to hyper profits - huge if you're in the right place at the right time. The reality is more likely you'll get hyper ****ed.

I invested, that's my opinion, I've earned it.

JJJJNR

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-mutual-fund-launches-in-canada/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

It's happening.

smurgen

I knew it was a pyramid scheme when very intelligent lads in work who were up to up to their eyes in it could explain to me the concept properly. As a general rule of thumb i don't invest in what i don't understand.

Capt'n Midnight

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

That link doesn’t work. Again, what is a smart NFC tag, and how does it work in verifying that a bottle of wine isn’t counterfeit? Mapping physical objects into a digital world is difficult. This is yet another example of applying the word blockchain to an end-point solution that doesn’t need it, raising hundreds of millions based on hot air, hype, and hysteria, then leaving a load of bag holders at the end.

NFC is what's used in Passports and Contactless Credit and Debt Cards and Leap cards and the old yellow paper 10 journey Dublin bus tickets.

So everything from International Security and money to very low cost and disposable.

It means that an app on your phone can talk to the wine bottle. If you trust the app and trust the wine manufacturer and the entire supply chain then you can be sure they are saying they intended to put legit wine in the bottle.

If the app says the wind is fake then it probably is. But it would do nothing to prevent an Austrian Anti-Freeze scandal. Or someone hacking into the system if there's a backdoor.

JJJJNR

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/irish-blockchain-body-for-women-aims-to-build-awareness-of-technology-1.3626821

Capt'n Midnight

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

What sort of bitcoin adoption is growing in Asia? Buying it, holding it, spending it etc? Any opinion on the energy it uses?

What % of bitcoing trading is used for evading tax or foreign exchange controls ?

JJJJNR wrote: »

What about diamonds.

De Beers are now openly selling synthetic diamonds.

They've been making then down in Shannon for ages.

JJJJNR

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-09-13/morgan-stanley-said-to-prepare-bitcoin-swap-trading-for-clients

valoren

Samsong wrote: »

I will send you a message in 5 years from today.
Buy vechain now. You can thank me then

https://giphy.com/gifs/javier-mascherano-mKHqYw83SCa08