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Breaky Bitcoin Blues

Slideways

I was having the porridge this morning with a few colleagues, and the chat came around to cryptocurrency. Turns out they all got roasted buying bitcoin, Ethereum and other coins during the bubble in November and December of last year. Two of the lads are going to sell their remaining coins this week, and put the whole thing down to getting greedy and falling for a classic pyramid scheme. One other lad (a hard-living Scot) was threatening to track down an ex-colleague of ours and ‘put the slipphery wee kunt in a grave’ for talking the group into buying these coins in the first place.

One of them was worth almost 900k Aussie dollars at the height of the bubble. He was boasting back in December about buying a yacht, moving to Puerto Rico, and shacking up with some local bird with his epic crypto gains. His investment is now worth less than 3k.That’s shocking stuff. You’d hear very little these days about the space in the papers, or on the telly. Did anyone here lose the arse of their trousers gambling on these coins, and did you learn a lesson? Has it any future at all? Was it greed, stupidity, or a mixture of both that caused young lads to throw their savings into this stuff? You’d have to stroke your chin and wonder what they were thinking.

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seamus

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

How is the concept sound, dude? Bitcoin mining is an environmental disaster (using way more electricity than the entire island of Ireland), the scene is awash with wash trading, spoof orders, painting the tape, and other scams that have been banned in other markets for decades. It's slow, expensive to use, if you forget your password then you've lost your bitcoin forever, theft is rife. It's one of the most retrograde technological developments ever created.

That's why the concept is sound, even if in practice it's turned out to be a monster.

The core concept of any currency is the ability to use a totem to represent "value" in trade. In order for such a totem to be of any use, it has to be rare, or at least tightly controlled, and it must be difficult or impossible to fake it.

This is why gold (and other precious metals) was favourable for a long time.

Bitcoin fulfills all the necessary, and in many ways is like "digital gold", but also comes with the same issue that gold currency does; namely resource-intensive mining, quite easily scammable and irreplaceable if lost.

The big difference is that we can adapt much quicker and generate new cryptocurrencies which throw out the issues but retain the benefits of crypto. Bitcoin is little more than an experiment gone out of control. But as the value keeps dropping, the cost of mining and processing keeps rising, so it'll eventually fall out of favour completely and people will start finding themselves unable to use or sell it without huge processing fees.

KilOit

I like the idea of it, very much abused by early in investers and scammers making their own coins etc. Got in early 2017 and took out my initial investment near peak but that's not to say I would of make a killing if I sold the lot at peak

ARNOLD J RIMMER

callaway92 wrote: »

Thank you captain hindsight

You must have had blinkers on for the past 2 years.

With the growth of crypto, there was a massive amount of articles written showing it to be a scam.

To highlight Hindsight is just ignorance on your side.

7aubzxk43m2sni

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

You must have had blinkers on for the past 2 years.

With the growth of crypto, there was a massive amount of articles written showing it to be a scam.

To highlight Hindsight is just ignorance on your side.

To say "crypto is a scam" shows nothing but ignorance on the subject.

JohnnyFlash

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

You must have had blinkers on for the past 2 years.

With the growth of crypto, there was a massive amount of articles written showing it to be a scam.

To highlight Hindsight is just ignorance on your side.

Ya, any of them who spent more than 5 minutes doing actual research instead of talking about doing it would have seen that the price of Bitcoin (and therefore all other coins) was manipulated using a very very shady coin called Tether (supposedly backed one to one either the dollar). There’s a glut of quality independent journalism out there about how much of a scam this entire space is, but cryptodisciples refuse to read about this. Weird weird cognitive bias type of stuff going on.

seamus

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Ya, any of them who spent more than 5 minutes doing actual research instead of talking about doing it would have seen that the price of Bitcoin (and therefore all other coins) was manipulated using a very very shady coin called Tether (supposedly backed one to one either the dollar). There’s a glut of quality independent journalism out there about how much of a scam this entire space is, but cryptodisciples refuse to read about this. Weird weird cognitive bias type of stuff going on.

Problem is that it's a little too complex to boil down into simple articles, and phrases of, "It's all a scam!"

Bitcoin itself was never a scam, and a couple of other coins like Ethereum came from people who apparently genuinely wanted a coin that would be usable; perhaps for illegal purposes.

But then came the 2,000 other coins. They're scams. The coin software is open-source and someone can start a new coin from their laptop and sell millions of it. I can start a new coin right now, sell it for half a cent per coin, and sure if I sell a million of them, that's five grand in my bank account, for no effort.
Unaware of this fact, naive investors are sold coins which do exist, but have no real value because nobody is ever going to want them.
Like expensive time-share apartments in Portugal, or a "luxury" apartment in Drimoleague- you have something to look at, but never had and never will have the value that you paid for it.

Ray Bloody Purchase

Seems like a pyramid scheme for suckers to me.

JJJJNR

Anyone getting in now has a long wait to get any type return, those days of overnight millionaires are well and truely over.

I'm not into trading have a computer science background so know how to sniff out the genuine promising applications which I myself see a need for and a gap in the market.

There are 1000s out there which are scams but there are a few diamonds also with a long roadmap. I can also say I'm not betting the house, markets are something I've had an interest in since I was a kid and I can loose it all tomorrow morning and not give a sh#t.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b

Viewed in retrospect, most bubbles share the same broad patterns. Whether it's dot-com stocks in the 90s, the Irish housing market from 2005-09, or Bitcoin in the past year, early investors do make a lot of money. But then, as chatter and media hype about the bubble asset picks up steam, the prospect of a get-rich-quick scheme draws in less informed investors, many of whom have minimal or no experience in the markets. This phase of the bubble is often characterized by mass euphoria and suspension of disbelief -- people who are piling their life savings into the asset share a mutually reinforcing conviction that prices will continue to surge, they will all get rich, and nothing bad will ever happen. Naysayers are viciously attacked. At that stage, though, the bubble is generally close to its peak, most of smart-money early investors have cashed in, and it's usually the late, minimally informed investors who are left holding the ball.

After the inevitable crisis hits, prices fall dramatically, and people lose money, there's usually a "return to reality" phase. Where the media used to write only positive stories about the bubble asset, suddenly they uncover numerous cases of fraud and abuse. Those who lost money then have a way to blame others for their losses. And we hear a lot of 20/20 hindsight and "I always knew this would happen."

Every bubble works much the same way. Robert Shiller has a great book on it called Irrational Exuberance. Well worth a read.

[Deleted User]

One thing I would say to anyone thinking about investing in this stuff is stay out of the crypto forum. There seems to be an uncomfortable level of an almost desperate desire to get other people to invest while reassuring those that already have that everything will be fine.

If you’ve already bought in then, by all means, go in and join the positive chat about the choice you’ve made. Also, be sure to be ready at any moment to shout down any user who dares to question the merits of the coins. One was even banned quite recently who seemed to be speaking a lot of sense, posting copious quality links to back up his view but this didn’t go down well at all. Came across as a most measured and intelligent poster, in my humble opinion.

While I was once interested in getting into the crypto game I have largely been put off by the sheer number of over-zealous coin holders trying to get others to get in on the action.

I mean, how often do you see people trying to help perfect strangers make millions by buying into the product they’re already bought into?
Reminiscent of the types who’d rope you into selling products at those dreadful Tupperware parties.

seamus

Mr.S wrote: »

I do believe it will climb up again.

Bitcoin is currently in the bull trap/return to "normal" phase, aka the dead cat bounce:
https://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/images/Manias%20Bubbles.pdf

It's been prolonged because the global economy is strong, but another drop is coming for bitcoin. It's going to bottom out around $3,500 - $4,000. After that it's hard to tell, it might fall out of favour completely or experience another rally in 4-5 years.

I'd get out now while you still have something.

RIGOLO

seamus wrote: »

Bitcoin is currently in the bull trap/return to "normal" phase, aka the dead cat bounce:
https://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/images/Manias%20Bubbles.pdf

It's been prolonged because the global economy is strong, but another drop is coming for bitcoin. It's going to bottom out around $3,500 - $4,000. After that it's hard to tell, it might fall out of favour completely or experience another rally in 4-5 years.

I'd get out now while you still have something.

big time, from a technological standpoint crypto currencies in their current 'blockchain' format are doomed.

JJJJNR

RIGOLO wrote: »

big time, from a technological standpoint crypto currencies in their current 'blockchain' format are doomed.

How are they doomed, I'm interested to know how your writing off the whole blockchain model.

listermint

One thing about Crypto ,everyones an expert.

And those that are holding are even more expert than the experts.

There is no such thing as pyramid schemes.

You 'norms' just dont understand it .

JohnnyFlash

RIGOLO wrote: »

big time, from a technological standpoint crypto currencies in their current 'blockchain' format are doomed.

This is an excellent article from Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, about why he is so deeply sceptical about crypto currency.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/opinion/transaction-costs-and-tethers-why-im-a-crypto-skeptic.html

That’s from an economists point of view. The technical reasons why blockchain has almost no valid usecases has been covered by many eminent computer science and mathematics researchers. It’s a grotesquely inefficient and expensive technology that fails at almost everything its advocates proclaim it can do: decentralised, secure, scalable.

Here’s Vincent Cerf’s summary:

https://twitter.com/vgcerf/status/1019987651301081089?s=21

RIGOLO

JJJJNR wrote: »

How are they doomed, I'm interested to know how your writing off the whole blockchain model.

Im not writing off blockchain per se, Im just saying as a mechanism for currency its doomed to failure on many many levels. Just take one aspect of it, go deep and theres inherent issues and fundamental flaws.
Some other uses for blockchain are out there, some may work but not to the degree people think.
Just cos you can do something, doesnt mean it makes sense at the end of the day .

please noooo .. a Paul Krugman article .. now I know bitcoin is done, once that cretin gets involved in the discussion you know the horse has left the stable and is in the next county

JJJJNR

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

This is an excellent article from Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, about why he is so deeply sceptical about crypto currency.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/opinion/transaction-costs-and-tethers-why-im-a-crypto-skeptic.html

That’s from an economists point of view. The technical reasons why blockchain has almost no valid usecases has been covered by many eminent computer science and mathematics researchers. It’s a grotesquely inefficient and expensive technology that fails at almost everything its advocates proclaim it can do: decentralised, secure, scalable.

Here’s Vincent Cerf’s summary:

https://twitter.com/vgcerf/status/1019987651301081089?s=21

So pointy pointy click clicky. Nothing here to see as far as I'm concerned that economist got it wrong on trump and he will get it wrong on blockchain. It's an evolving technology and some of the coins e.g. siacoin are fully decentralised and secure.

seamus

I don't agree that blockchain has no valid use cases. It's just become a running joke now in software circles that somehow the business-types heard about blockchain and ask their developers how this, "ground breaking new concept that changes everything" can be incorporated into their software and make billions. Without actually understanding what it is and how it works.

Software engineers being naturally inquisitive and experimental types will try and shoehorn it into things to see what will happen, but being experimental and proof-of-concept they only barely work.

The Vinton Cerf photo always makes me laugh though, because it sums it up nicely. If you don't know what blockchain is or what it does, you don't need it.

Woke Hogan

What uses does blockchain have then apart from scamming rubes?

[Deleted User]

Woke Hogan wrote: »

What uses does blockchain have then apart from scamming rubes?

Data you want to be immutable. Financial records etc.

Deusexmachina

Under His Eye wrote: »

Pyramid scheme from the get go. Zero sympathy for those suckers.

I am not specifically having a go at you here poster - but I do hate 'zero sympathy' posts on Boards.

Every thread where someone has made a mistake, got into trouble, lost their money or their job, there is always a couple of posters who immediately lash in with the 'zero sympathy for the fool' posts.

I don't know what the aim of these posts is but they always make me feel a bit unsettled.

Who can tell for sure that they themselves might not be the 'sucker' on one of these threads some time in the future.

Just a thought.

Woke Hogan

Deusexmachina wrote: »

I am not specifically having a go at you here poster - but I do hate 'zero sympathy' posts on Boards.

Every thread where someone has made a mistake, got into trouble, lost their money or their job, there is always a couple of posters who immediately lash in with the 'zero sympathy for the fool' posts.

I don't know what the aim of these posts is but they always make me feel a bit unsettled.

Who can tell for sure that they themselves might not be the 'sucker' on one of these threads some time in the future.

Just a thought.

I make zero apologies for holding no sympathy towards exploitative "victims" of get rich quick schemes.

Deusexmachina

Woke Hogan wrote: »

I make zero apologies for holding no sympathy towards exploitative "victims" of get rich quick schemes.

I have no sympathy for the instigators of such schemes, the people behind them. But I do feel sorry for some of the people who lost a lot of their savings in them.

There was a well respected local business woman in our community who was peddling 'Dascoin' to all her contacts in the community. Sold a lot of that stuff.

Anyway, I am sure some quite vulnerable people got screwed out of their savings.

I don't think there is anything to be gained by sneering at the victims.

seamus

Woke Hogan wrote: »

What uses does blockchain have then apart from scamming rubes?

There are several decent concepts being worked on, none of them ground breaking, but useful nonetheless.

The problem is assuming that they'll be huge. For example, if you have a closed system when you want to track changes through that system, and have an audit of those changes which cannot be faked or injected. Such as internal financial systems.

One of the most high-profile applications being mooted, and not in a pie-in-the-sky way, is for electronic voting. Blockchain may solve the e-voting problem whereby it's thus far never been possible to have an anonymous and auditable (and therefore secure) e-voting system.

Lisa.J.Kelly

If you want to invest in these cryptocurrencies, you need to be prepared to lose everything. Ofc you might make a lot of money fast. I just think it is more likely that you lose it.

Woke Hogan

Deusexmachina wrote: »

I have no sympathy for the instigators of such schemes, the people behind them. But I do feel sorry for some of the people who lost a lot of their savings in them.

There was a well respected local business woman in our community who was peddling 'Dascoin' to all her contacts in the community. Sold a lot of that stuff.

Anyway, I am sure some quite vulnerable people got screwed out of their savings.

I don't think there is anything to be gained by sneering at the victims.

They're not the victims, the victims are the rest of us: citizens of the dying planet where a small minority of magic bean pickers use enough energy in a year to fuel one million transatlantic flights, thinking they're playing Gordon Gekko.

Deusexmachina

Lisa.J.Kelly wrote: »

If you want to invest in these cryptocurrencies, you need to be prepared to lose everything. Ofc you might make a lot of money fast. I just think it is more likely that you lose it.

I understand Lisa. It's just like gambling. The only problem is that often families suffer.
The 'zero sympathy' line is a bit simplistic.

JJJJNR

I don't look at it as gambling more crowd funding, or small scale VC (really small).

Autochange

Slideways wrote: »

I notice there’s a few doubters as to the legitimacy of my post.

This guy (the biggest loser bought financially and in real life) bought in early and rode the wave to the top. Instead of cashing out and enjoying his money he got greedy. He’d come across some emerging altcoin after reading a white paper one of his mates sent him and and thinking he was the next Richard Branson got in early and bought a huge stake in it.

I don’t recall the name of it but it crashed spectacularly and old bud is left with the half of fcuk all.

As my old man always says, “A fool and his money is easily parted”

I reckon I know the people you are talking about through a friend of a friend. Iv seen a portfolio screenshot from back around the period you mentioned and seen some messages.

Autochange

Woke Hogan wrote: »

I make zero apologies for holding no sympathy towards exploitative "victims" of get rich quick schemes.

Horrible person. Toxic