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Summer 2018 - General Discussion

SNNUS

It's very far off but no harm to have a thread regarding the Weather for the Summer. Hopefully it will not all be in May as usual.

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Slashermcguirk

Beautiful warm day in dublin. 25 degrees at 4pm at Phoenix Park met station

Cantona's Collars

Lovely here all day in Wexford, feel kinda guilty now for coming inside and watching football.

Mobhi1

Reached a high of 25.8C there a little while ago. It was mostly sunny but has since clouded up and it's mostly cloudy now. It's 25.0C now.

Rock Lesnar

Grand day here, sunny, warm, breezy and the grass has been cut

RobertKK

26C here in Kilkenny like neighbouring Carlow reported at Oak Park.

HighLine

High of 27.3°C at Ashford, Wicklow. Was not expecting that. Very nice to feel the heat again. Think ME forecast highs of 23°C.

Actually just reading the stats on wicklowweather.com on today's high was the highest of the year.

harr

Turned into a fantastic day here in kildare..25c at 4pm ..definitely a bonus after the last couple of weeks of rain and the rain promised.

Oscar Bravo

5pm met reports.... Oak Park 26 degrees

sryanbruen

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

5pm met reports.... Oak Park 26 degrees

Oak Park - 26.1
Dublin Apt - 24.6
Casement Aerodrome - 24.4
Gurteen - 23.7
Shannon Apt - 22.9
Mullingar - 21.6
Cork Apt - 21.5

Kilkenny Weather at 25.5c.

DOCARCH

Was up in Belfast today. Had aircon on in the car and just arrived back (in Dublin). Was like stepping out into holidays! Warm and humid. 25.2c in Dublin 16.

Abhainn

HighLine wrote: »

High of 27.3°C at Ashford, Wicklow. Was not expecting that. Very nice to feel the heat again. Think ME forecast highs of 23°C.

Actually just reading the stats on wicklowweather.com on today's high was the highest of the year.

Yes me a yearly high also - 26.2c in Wicklow town.
ME had high of 25c

SleetAndSnow

Very foggy around coastal west cork now and still misting. Drove around a lot of west cork today (Bantry, glengarrif, dunmanyway, drimoleague etc) and misting most of the way and fog for parts of it.

Wind hasn’t picked up here yet anyway

Xenji

The rain has arrived in Castlebar, temperature has dropped down to 17.2C.

Elmer Blooker

after 6 but I'm recording my highest of the day! 24.7c.

Gavlor

Balls of and a day on the south east coast, sun came out for a bit but heat was drowned out by a strong south westerly. Misty and foggy since 5

Mobhi1

Mostly cloudy but still 24.6C in Glasnevin.

km79

So dark so early again

Graces7

Loud heavy deluge here since just after 6 pm and no sign of abating.

West Mayo; offshore island

alentejo

Tis a lovely evening here in Dublin. 21c in the back garden

Kermit.de.frog

Me right now

Andy From Sligo

Pretty much on time as forecasted, constant peeing down here in south sligo since around 8pm ... the ducks will be happy. - I predict the hosepipe ban will be lifted well before the 31st of august now

Gonzo

was in Dublin for most of the day, reached 25C and was very warm. Back in Dunshaughlin now and it's a very wet night here, still warm.

Graces7

A quiet, mild, moist, midgy Mayo morning.

Cantona's Collars

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

Pretty much on time as forecasted, constant peeing down here in south sligo since around 8pm ... the ducks will be happy. - I predict the hosepipe ban will be lifted well before the 31st of august now

Come down to our neck of the woods in the SE. Rain has been negligible here with an hour here and there over the last couple of months.

OldRio

We've had rain for the last three days in Leitrim. Raining for a fourth this Sunday. Yet still warm. The ground is getting rather sticky and muddy.

Harry Palmr

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Come down to our neck of the woods in the SE. Rain has been negligible here with an hour here and there over the last couple of months.

I just looked at the ME forecast for today.

Mostly cloudy and misty to begin today with patchy rain and drizzle, but gradually brightening up from the west, with sunny breaks developing. Humid with top temperatures 21 to 24 degrees, warmest in the southeast. Light to moderate westerly winds will become mainly light and variable later today.

There is nothing but light fluffy clouds and sunshine above me.

highdef

Fohn effect is place in the Costa Del Wicklow. Looks like smashing weather there this morning and I would expect it'll be a beut of a day.

sryanbruen

It has come to the time you all have been waiting for. It's been a while coming with the many analogues we've looked at for Autumn 2018 but here we are, this post is going to be revealing the preliminary analogues for Autumn 2018. These are the analogues where we combine all the analogues we've done this season together and find the years which cropped up most. In order for a year to qualify, it must appear at least 5 times in the analogues to be considered an "important year" for Autumn 2018. The more times the year appears doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be the most similar to the season thus why I consider this criteria to be good. The Summer 2018 preliminary analogues have worked out extremely well and I'm really happy with them especially as they're the hardest ones I've worked on so far, I'm hoping my Autumn ones fare similar performance.

The years to appear the most in our preliminary analogues for Autumn 2018 were 1887, 1911, 1913, 1925, 1947, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012. There is a variety of Autumns in here from the really cold season of 1887 to the record breaking warm Autumn of 2006. However, we will see the general theme of the Autumn in the 500mb height anomaly reanalysis charts containing all these years.

The Autumns overall look unsettled with a westerly regime taking hold but there lies the chance of some colder weather as above average heights sit over Greenland which would push cold air into the below average heights over the UK and Ireland.

df4d06_7ae8dbfd0b4647c18eeef54dff143ddc~mv2.png

df4d06_7ae8dbfd0b4647c18eeef54dff143ddc~mv2.png

The Septembers look very cool and unsettled with above average heights in the Atlantic and below average heights to the south and east of the UK. The mean wind direction is a north to northeasterly. 1995 is in the analogue and this reanalysis draws very similar comparisons to that month which was cool and very wet to the east of the UK whilst it was drier, sunnier with close to average temperatures over Ireland and the west of the UK.

df4d06_ba0af48c3a8f4ba2a55625566b26317e~mv2.png

df4d06_ba0af48c3a8f4ba2a55625566b26317e~mv2.png

The Octobers look very anticyclonic and quiet with above average heights over the Arctic Circle, Greenland and over us with below average heights over Scandinavia. We're on the periphery of a very cold northerly blast as the cold is going into Scandinavia so the signal is just quiet, settled and temperatures would be close to average or relatively above average but the main thing would be the dry nature of the month.

df4d06_7952906bc13f4ef789a6df7b1cedf4c0~mv2.png

df4d06_7952906bc13f4ef789a6df7b1cedf4c0~mv2.png

The Novembers look exceptionally wet, stormy and mild with deep below average heights right over top of the UK and Ireland. There are above average heights over Greenland but the trough is too far north to be delivering cold weather and not to mention, there are above average heights over the southeast of Europe which is not supportive of cold weather.

df4d06_9aa364bcff7445db82bc6dbff8e6fd1b~mv2.png

df4d06_9aa364bcff7445db82bc6dbff8e6fd1b~mv2.png

Overall, a very mixed Autumn but reminds me of Autumn 1995 a lot in how it evolves, a cool and unsettled September, an anticyclonic and mild October whilst a mild and wet November. Would be interesting to see if this came off.

I know I said I was going to do Autumns that followed on from Julys with a QBO of -20 or less yesterday but I forgot with all the talk of Ernesto and since I planned for the preliminary analogues to be released Sunday, I thought of going forward with it.

Slashermcguirk

Total rainfall at Phoenix Park in dublin from 1st May -18th August of 75mm.

75mm of rain in nearly a 4 month period, just unbelievable. Every chance that dublin could experience less than 700mm in a calendar year for two years running. Dublin airport had only 660mm in 2017

Gonzo

disappointing day here, murky with spits of drizzle all morning, no sign of any sun. Temperature 19C.