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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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sryanbruen

Don't have the charts here but ECM 12z is properly cooler and more unsettled for the weekend into early next week.

Harry Palmr

The fact it changed so quickly suggests that the models don't know their arses from their elbows right now.

Villain

Summer ain't done yet

viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20180725;time=00;ext=006;file=t850Dublin;sess=11cfdb8992eed491791e9e2bf4a16c12;

pauldry

I dont believe so either.

Id say the weather will be fair until September and even hot at times with just short wet periods

JCX BXC

Villain wrote: »

Summer ain't done yet

Sadly won't load for me Villain!

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

Sadly won't load for me Villain!

It was (doesn't load for me either now) the GFS 0z ensembles from Netweather and they showed it staying largely warm for the most part into August with only short cooler interludes like the coming weekend.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

It was (doesn't load for me either now) the GFS 0z ensembles from Netweather and they showed it staying largely warm for the most part into August with only short cooler interludes like the coming weekend.

Eh well don't worry, the 12Z is quite good too, from the 2nd of August onwards.

Villain

Doh should have uploaded image some where, summary in my last tweet:
https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1022084997497454592

pauldry

GFS upgraded from 2nd Aug bringing Scandi High down over us.

A long way off yet but warm weather quite likely still after a few days rain

sryanbruen

GFS 12z 850hPa temperature charts.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z ensembles for Dublin looking really warm to hot for early August, an unanimous amount of support here! The ensemble mean gets close to 15c at 850hPa.....

Cork's ones are similar.

pauldry

High on latest GFS more retrogressive as a low FINALLY hits Scandanavia.

Still all pie in the sky

Next run might bring heat back

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

High on latest GFS more retrogressive as a low FINALLY hits Scandanavia.

Still all pie in the sky

Next run might bring heat back

It indeed has, it goes off on one if I'm completely honest :pac:.

JCX BXC

When the GFS shows temperatures of 29c over Ireland you know it would be a hot verification!

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

When the GFS shows temperatures of 29c over Ireland you know it would be a hot verification!

It shows 37c for England on 8th August but on its 12z run yesterday, barely reaching 20c in a northerly wind for that exact day.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

It shows 37c for England on 8th August but on its 12z run yesterday, barely reaching 20c in a northerly wind for that exact day.

Never said it was likely to happen!

squarecircles

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wing52

squarecircles wrote: »

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Now that's just dangerous heat.

Sammy2012

When is that predicted for Spain and Portugal? Flying to Portugal on the 12th of Aug.

Gonzo

Sammy2012 wrote: »

When is that predicted for Spain and Portugal? Flying to Portugal on the 12th of Aug.

that's predicted for next week. Temperatures for most of Spain look normal enough, high 20s to low 30's near the south and east coasts, where most people spend their holidays.

It's really the western inland part of Spain near Seville where extreme heat will be felt, but even there temperatures of 40C are fairly regular during July and August.

the coasts of Portugal look similar to the coasts of Spain, high 20s to low 30s, it's only inland where the extreme heat kicks in.

Sammy2012

Oh right. Thanks gonzo. I don't the heat so I'll deal with it if it's really hot when we are there. Was there 3 years ago at the end of June and temps were in the the low 40s. It's usually in the mid 30s when we are there anyway. Lovely weather for sitting around doing nothing.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is high pressure mania after mid-week next week. Expect a lot more flip flops of this until we get closer to the expected period of time which should be around the first weekend of August.

sryanbruen

Don't have charts but ECM 12z is settled for the first week of August. However, the heat is less extreme than the GFS. Deep low attempts to push eastwards near mid-week next week but gets put off by the anticyclones.

Luke-m

sryanbruen wrote: »

Don't have charts but ECM 12z is settled for the first week of August. However, the heat is less extreme than the GFS. Deep low attempts to push eastwards near mid-week next week but gets put off by the anticyclones.

Agree, the op doesn’t quite build the heat. But the mean is more different. It’s warmer. I think it’s a case of more runs needed.

Kermit.de.frog

Definitely signs that high pressure will be building in again from Wednesday. Don't get caught up on the details yet though...

km79

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Definitely signs that high pressure will be building in again from Wednesday. Don't get caught up on the details yet though...

That will do nicely

The garden will go crazy !

Kermit.de.frog

To note, no amount of rain this week is going to make up for the losses so far this year. So if a block like this occurs we could be heading for issues.

J180-21.GIF?26-12

JCX BXC

Not a very nice 00Z GFS run at all.

White Clover

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not a very nice 00Z GFS run at all.

What is it indicating? Thanks