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Absolute Drought conditions to end by Sunday, remaining warm, mostly dry

Kermit.de.frog

So we are on the cusp of an interruption to the very warm or hot and dry cactus growing conditions that have prevailed for the last few weeks at least for a few days.

Many places won't see absolute drought conditions end until the second half of the weekend (some tomorrow) when a band of persistent, allbeit, light to moderate rain moves across the country from the Atlantic.

While technically the absolute drought will end, though welcome, there is unlikely to be any significant rainfall and certainly not enough to remotely replenish lost resources either in the soil or in reservoirs and rivers.

The soil moisture deficits in the east and southeast are approaching nearly 100mm at this stage. That is a lot to make up and we certainly won't be making much inroads there.

Between now and Sunday:

Wednesday:

Patchy light to moderate rainfall in the north and east, mainly dry elsewhere, some showers further south. Warm, top temperatures 22 - 23c in the south where there will be pleasant sunshine. 16 - 19c elsewhere, coolest on coasts.

Thursday:

Mainly dry, isolated patchy rain and drizzle. Some sunshine. Top temperatures 22 - 24c.

Friday:

Dry day. Warm and mostly sunny. 22 - 24c max temperatures. Warmest in the east and south. 17 - 20c elsewhere.

Saturday:

Warm or very warm. Dry. Top temperatures in the south and east. 22 - 25c.

Rainfall extent

Still it's uncertain the actual extent of rainfall over the weekend. Right now it looks light or moderate intensity but patchy (widespread and more persistent for Sunday). Most models would appear to indicate 5 - 15 mm for most over the next 10 days which is small amounts.

Some signs too that things will settle down again for the following week.

Still good by the standards of your average Irish summer and the temperatures remaining good.

Possible warnings/hazards:

Drought conditions, Level: Yellow

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sryanbruen

Still looking very dry to me with the wettest conditions over the south of the UK.

anais

Jeju wrote:

Think I have some in the freezer, must set it free see what happens

My son actually did put a snowball from "the big snow"in the freezer just so he could throw one in summerðŸ˜‰

Luckycharms_74

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Welcome to Fantasy Island

Boss.. the plane its the plane! (for anyone that remembers)

Dickie10

Tanks be to God!!!

Comhrá

Dickie10 wrote: »

Tanks be to God!!!

Full tanks of course?

Kermit.de.frog

Modelled rainfall between now and Tuesday

Nothing significant but not insignificant for some particularly in the northwest either with much welcome moderate falls for most through Sunday.

Kermit.de.frog

Tomorrow could be one of the warmest days of the last 6 weeks in the east and specifically Dublin. Could be hitting 27c tomorrow afternoon in what should be a sunny day.

Fine margins across the country. Much cooler and cloudy further west with light rain or drizzle for the far west and northwest.

pauldry

Yes and rain has been pushed back a bit too Kermit

Areas of West that were promised 10mm may only see 5mm though the heat further East may intensify it.

Cloudy today in Sligo but 21c

hinault

I'm in Laois this evening. A very very light shower of rain, barely discernible.

Supercell

Bray head fire (caused by idiots as usual) raining ash here, air very smelly outside this evening. Wifey not impressed, washing will have to be done again.
Feel sorry for the fire services tasked with putting it out in these conditions.

Graces7

Clear skies as darkness grows, and a kindly cool breeze . Making hay while the sun shines has been in full swing here today, and the silence here is palpable.

West Mayo; offshore island

Kermit.de.frog

Supercell wrote: »

Bray head fire (caused by idiots as usual) raining ash here, air very smelly outside this evening. Wifey not impressed, washing will have to be done again.
Feel sorry for the fire services tasked with putting it out in these conditions.

https://twitter.com/LukeMartin_DL/status/1017848377407569920

https://twitter.com/PeterMurtagh/status/1017849723368230912

Jennehy

No rain for Sunday.

White Clover

Jennehy wrote: »

No rain for Sunday.

What about Monday?

Graces7

The wind is breathing water out here. Not a huge amount but water. Drab heavy skies... Yesterday the farmers were manic with big machines, working to get the hay in before the rain.

A good sign!

West Mayo.offshore island

CH3OH

Just watched the BBC weather forecast and was shocked when she used a 4 letter word several times!!

there might be a little bit of rain spreading over the country on Sunday

Calibos

Bray Head Gorse Fire still raging today.

Highlights the different wind directions at different heights.

Its blowing towards the west with the lower level sea breeze but when the smoke rises to a certain height it is caught by the South Westerly wind and blown towards the North East out over the sea.

Oneiric 3

Fairly cloudy here but not holding out much hope for much rain here. Front looks painfully weak and there is no depth to the clouds at all. 'Browning' becoming quite marked now and seems to have really taking off in last couple of days.

pauldry

Here in the NW in Sligo there is mist on the mountains.

Nothing much at all at low level. 0.2mm since midnight on gauge. all grass at sides of kerbs is now yellow all rivers are as low as ive ever seen but lakes look pretty full

Graces7

Just been out to the back where the ocean is nearest to the dwelling. Awesome sight, heavy drizzle sweeping across off the Atlantic, veiling all the land.

No idea how much is actually falling but a grand sight.

West Mayo; offshore island

morticia2

Good to hear...just hope it makes it over to our side of the island!

Graces7 wrote: »

Just been out to the back where the ocean is nearest to the dwelling. Awesome sight, heavy drizzle sweeping across off the Atlantic, veiling all the land.

No idea how much is actually falling but a grand sight.

West Mayo; offshore island

Graces7

morticia2 wrote: »

Good to hear...just hope it makes it over to our side of the island!

I think it is heading in the right direction, so, with a good following wind ..

West Mayo. offshore island

Storm 10

Heavy enough Drizzle in Galway now and windy

Meteorite58

Cloudy and breezy in Tralee with the odd drop of rain blowing in the wind. 19.4C

sunnyday1234

24 and sunny in north cork

Same old story

Graces7

Lovely wet day here in West Mayo, offshore island. We even have.... puddles.. and wet cats.

hawkwing

Graces7 wrote: »

Lovely wet day here in West Mayo, offshore island. We even have.... puddles.. and wet cats.

I don't see much on the radar for there..

morticia2

We go on our hols near Louisburgh (never mind the islands)....quite often you can see stuff coming over the sea before the radar picks it up...at its limits out there.

Often doesn’t pick up on low cloud and drizzle conditions either...

hawkwing wrote: »

I don't see much on the radar for there..

sunnyday1234

Graces7 wrote: »

Lovely wet day here in West Mayo, offshore island. We even have.... puddles.. and wet cats.

Honestly jealous

SleetAndSnow

How’s cork city looking for rain over the weekend? Sorry just catching up with the weather now, away on holidays