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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Farmer2017

How far out is Spanish plume from happening ? Does Spanish plume bring much rain

Ultimate Seduction

Farmer2017 wrote: »

How far out is Spanish plume from happening ? Does Spanish plume bring much rain

Lad you are asking the same question everyday and getting the same answer.

Comhrá

Farmer2017 wrote: »

How far out is Spanish plume from happening ? Does Spanish plume bring much rain

The Spanish Plume is still in the realms of chance and may or may not reach as far West as Ireland. It's more likely to drift up over France and the U.K than move over Ireland.

Even if it did arrive, it might only give us a few thundery downpours at best, and maybe nothing.

The chart below is two days old and it gives July 11th to be approaching the South coast of Ireland. I wouldn't be betting on any significant rainfall from it at this stage though

36498722_10213773385021109_5842403296458833920_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=4ef3d5eab1edc59441ebffade0acc02a&oe=5BDF1089

36498722_10213773385021109_5842403296458833920_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=4ef3d5eab1edc59441ebffade0acc02a&oe=5BDF1089

sryanbruen

The GFS 06z showed the Spanish plume barely making inroads to the UK - never mind Ireland. It prolongs the warm and settled conditions somewhat and then has some moderation but at the end, it starts to warm up again.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z shows no thundery breakdown and keeps it settled until the third week of July.

Dare I say it: Downgrade.

pad199207

Looks like GFS backing away from the breakdown.

With the way are weather is going a hurricane in September will bring the next significant rainfall.

sdanseo

Last frame of the 12Z ECM (+10 days) is a full on Europe-Wide Heatwave. Whole countries at >30°

What breakdown?

SleetAndSnow

Woohoo delighted!!

I have a feeling they show the breakdown because that’s what they are used to with Irish weather, but slowly they are learning maybe?

ZX7R

sdanseo wrote: »

Last frame of the 12Z ECM (+10 days) is a full on Europe-Wide Heatwave. Whole countries at >30°

What breakdown?

Is it possible that the chart is showing a European high linking up with the Azores high to form a super high pressure

km79

Ooh baby

So we are getting seasons now

That’s cool

Meteorite58

Dominant HP from the Weekend into next week and then the ECM 12Z showing the ridge over Ireland being put under pressure the latter part of the week with a large area of LP tracking up towards Iceland possibly sending fronts in over us coupled with the slack are of LP drifting up from Biscay towards Southern UK . The 12Z shows us under a large Upper Trough by the end of the week if I am not mistaken.

What I am seeing in the charts is looking warm up until the end of next week with good summer temperatures with high temps in the low to mid 20's.

Possible rain at the end of the week. Possible thunderstorms. Cloudy weather at times.

Meteorite58

The GFS way out in FI T+240 onwards goes on the rampage after that with the Jet dropping to the S of Ireland and the Atlantic taking off into full swing with quick moving LP systems bringing wind and rain at stages. An Outlier ? Will watch the trends over a few days to see which way it is leaning.

Villain

Just look how far north the Jet Stream is at +120!
viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180705;time=00;ext=123;file=jsslp;sess=30db647e0ca3e989f68168daa6d8a322;

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180705;time=00;ext=123;file=jsslp;sess=30db647e0ca3e989f68168daa6d8a322;

Also ECMWF 0z shows no real breakdown, it just keeps going and going!

ECM1-216.GIF?05-12

sryanbruen

To add weight to the OP run, ECM clusters are also in line with it in keeping things settled even as far out as day 15 now.

KingdomRushed

Am I looking at the same charts as everyone else?

Both GFS and ECM op runs are now clearly signaling a decline in pressure over Ireland from around July 9th onward. The ridge for next week is weaker on every run. The northern hemispheric view is better to assess this trend than the Europe only charts.

No Spanish plumes or especially explosive storms

No 30C + days on cards either by looks of things

km79

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Am I looking at the same charts as everyone else?

Both GFS and ECM op runs are now clearly signaling a decline in pressure over Ireland from around July 9th onward. The ridge for next week is weaker on every run. The northern hemispheric view is better to assess this trend than the Europe only charts.

Noooooooooooooooo

compsys

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Am I looking at the same charts as everyone else?

Both GFS and ECM op runs are now clearly signaling a decline in pressure over Ireland from around July 9th onward. The ridge for next week is weaker on every run. The northern hemispheric view is better to assess this trend than the Europe only charts.

Looks OK to me. You seem quite desperate for a return to bad weather?

sryanbruen

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Am I looking at the same charts as everyone else?

Both GFS and ECM op runs are now clearly signaling a decline in pressure over Ireland from around July 9th onward. The ridge for next week is weaker on every run. The northern hemispheric view is better to assess this trend than the Europe only charts.

'Eh em..... the ECM charts clearly show what me and Villain are talking about.

You told me here to use the northern hemispheric view. I see nothing different. Jet stream is way to the north with low pressure over Iceland and we have high pressure over us linking up with the Azores High and a high over Scandinavia.

KingdomRushed

compsys wrote: »

Looks OK to me. You seem quite desperate for a return to bad weather?

No I’m only pointing out what is showing on the model output. 48 hours ago it looked like genuine heat wave conditions were returning from this weekend. This trend is dissolving on the models. And moreover the much vaunted Spanish plume has not just eroded but disappeared. There’s a change coming in my opinion, whether that’s good news (for some) or bad news (for others).

Villain

KingdomRushed wrote: »

No I’m only pointing out what is showing on the model output. 48 hours ago it looked like genuine heat wave conditions were returning from this weekend. This trend is dissolving on the models. And moreover the much vaunted Spanish plume has not just eroded but disappeared. There’s a change coming in my opinion, whether that’s good news (for some) or bad news (for others).

Are you seeing what you are looking for maybe??

The spanish plume was our best hope of rain tbh!

Speak Now

KingdomRushed wrote: »

No I’m only pointing out what is showing on the model output. 48 hours ago it looked like genuine heat wave conditions were returning from this weekend. This trend is dissolving on the models. And moreover the much vaunted Spanish plume has not just eroded but disappeared. There’s a change coming in my opinion, whether that’s good news (for some) or bad news (for others).

Great that the Plume is gone, better for longevity. Of course the change always comes eventually. Whether cold in winter or hot in summer the end game is always the Atlantic.

KingdomRushed

sryanbruen wrote: »

'Eh em..... the ECM charts clearly show what me and Villain are talking about.

You told me here to use the northern hemispheric view. I see nothing different. Jet stream is way to the north with low pressure over Iceland and we have high pressure over us linking up with the Azores High and a high over Scandinavia.

I said the pressure begins to decline I didn’t say there wasn’t still high pressure over us, but it’s the same declining trend that is evident in later frames of GFS which runs longer. That is certainly not heatwave conditions at 216, and 240 is even less promising looking.

sryanbruen

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I said the pressure begins to decline I didn’t say there wasn’t still high pressure over us, but it’s the same declining trend that is evident in later frames of GFS which runs longer. That is certainly not heatwave conditions at 216, and 240 is even less promising looking.

I never suggested heatwave conditions ever either........ all I've been saying is settled. This Summer is more about persistence of warm and dry weather rather than extreme side of heat (besides 27th-29th June for Ireland).

For what it's worth of your description, the GFS has forwarded the cool, unsettled phase this morning by a day or two compared to its backdating that it was doing yesterday. It also suggests a trade burst well into FI which it tends to overdo but going by outlooks, this heralds a change into August if you ask me. August, I can definitely see a change coming to something much more unsettled.

Mid-June brought a cool and brief unsettled blip with the jet stream going on a bit of a southerly track similar to how the GFS is showing for the third week of July which was then followed by the heatwave or warm spell. In fact, looking at it now, maybe we're seeing something similar going on here? For sure, we weren't seeing a Spanish plume in early June on the model outlook but the way the ECM has the high pressure aligned (besides the Scandi High) is similar to that of how the models showed for Wednesday 13th June for a couple of days then was followed by storm Hector.

Not doubting the weakening of the high or ridge at all by the way, the long range models such as the CFSv2 also show this for the third week of July but they then restrengthen it for week 4.

ItJustWorks

sryanbruen wrote: »

I never suggested heatwave conditions ever either........ all I've been saying is settled. This Summer is more about persistence of warm and dry weather rather than extreme side of heat (besides 27th-29th June for Ireland).

For what it's worth of your description, the GFS has forwarded the cool, unsettled phase this morning by a day or two compared to its backdating that it was doing yesterday. It also suggests a trade burst well into FI which it tends to overdo but going by outlooks, this heralds a change into August if you ask me. August, I can definitely see a change coming to something much more unsettled.

Mid-June brought a cool and brief unsettled blip with the jet stream going on a bit of a southerly track similar to how the GFS is showing for the third week of July which was then followed by the heatwave or warm spell. In fact, looking at it now, maybe we're seeing something similar going on here? For sure, we weren't seeing a Spanish plume in early June on the model outlook but the way the ECM has the high pressure aligned (besides the Scandi High) is similar to that of how the models showed for Wednesday 13th June for a couple of days then was followed by storm Hector.

Not doubting the weakening of the high or ridge at all by the way, the long range models such as the CFSv2 also show this for the third week of July but they then restrengthen it for week 4.

I could see this being a possibility. Though looking at the CFSv2. It's showing a rather mucky high bringing a lot of drizzle and cloud from the north west after the Atlantic checks out from the GFS in deep FI. But it could be situation where its mostly settled for the rest of the month after a week but the heat returns to more average/above average levels for the rest of the summer. UKMO's long range outlook seems to be hinting at this with the heat mostly residing in S/SE England and more Atlantic influence creeping in in the last week of July. Maybe we'll be compromising on Mostly Settled and pleasant with a few Atlantic interruptions?

Meteorite58

IMO the ECM 12Z showing what looks like the possibility of a frontal passage and following showers at the end of next week associated with that big area of LP set to track near Iceland .

Villain

LOL at overnight runs, you say breakdown, models nah!

Just keeps getting pushed back and back

ECM1-192.GIF?06-12

BliainanAir

Villain wrote: »

LOL at overnight runs, you say breakdown, models nah!

Just keeps getting pushed back and back

High pressure difficult to shift or as a tongue tied friend of mine once put it, it's difficult to shift under high pressure!

hatrickpatrick

12z GFS very much backing down from a total breakdown now. Heights reducing, and a blip of mild low pressure (still only in the green) but still firmly on the side of highs throughout the run.

Am hoping to have a session for my birthday on the 21st, so yesterday's charts were as you can imagine an "ah for feck's sake kind of moment

The old FI hypocrisy creeping back in of course - favourable charts, "sure how inaccurate can FI really be?" vs unfavourable charts, "it's only FI, you'd get a more accurate forecast drawing tea leaves"

sryanbruen

Yeah, GFS 12z turns unsettled for Sunday 15th again but far from a washout and relatively cool temperatures at worst, staying mostly average to warm. Pressure just seems average after that initial turn to unsettled weather in FI in a flat westerly.

UKMO out as far as it goes, just anticyclonic and bags of sunshine besides possible morning mist or low cloud.

GEM is just high pressure fest throughout with no loss of strength in the high.

hatrickpatrick

sryanbruen wrote: »

GEM is just high pressure fest throughout with no loss of strength in the high.

Briefly, what are the known biases and caveats of the GEM model? For instance, I do know that where the Atlantic tropics are concerned, it has a reputation for being far more generous in upgrading non-tropical lows to tropical cyclones, which other models don't develop and which ultimately don't end up developing. As in, you can look at a CMC/GEM chart of vorticity in the Atlantic tropics and see two or three tropical storms or hurricanes forming throughout a run, where the GFS and ECM don't see any - and more often than not, the GEM does not verify in these circumstances.

Are there any other known biases with this model which we should look out for in the context of our own part of the world?