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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Periscal

I have made done my summer analogue forecast in April based on Solar,Enso and QBO and got two years that kinda matched - 1996 and 2006, both had higher than average pressure anomalies nearly exactly where our high pressure sits during this warm spell, I have posted that here earlier if you remember. I wonder if that is just pure luck or there is something more to it.

j

sryanbruen wrote: »

The GFS is known for wanting us to go back into a normal pattern. During the previous warm spell, it was unusually consistent with showing no breakdown in a pattern for a long while. I started giving the GFS more credit than I normally did but as soon as the return of the westerlies started to appear, I figured that the GFS was back in its normal state of chopping and changing a lot. Remember the Friday 15th June deluge it was showing? I bet many of you wish that came true by now.

I remember for a few days that the GFS was also showing us going into a westerly phase by next Saturday, now that looks to have been delayed. The UKMO shows us in a very humid and thundery easterly scenario for next weekend which would make westerlies not likely to return for a while as shown from the previous warm spell which had a few thundery interludes around each of the weekends of the period.

CFSv2 has now significantly re-strengthened the above average heights for July with a large anticyclone just centred to the north of the country drawing in warm easterly winds. It's very similar in ways to July 1955 how this pattern is setup on the model. If you did not know, July 1955 was Ireland's sunniest month on record. Bar weakening the heights for a time to average for July 2018, the CFSv2 has remained consistent on an anticyclonic July (as shown by its precipitation anomalies) throughout.

I had two ways July 2018 could go in my Summer forecast:

1. Deteriorate into a very cool and relatively wet month.
2. Continue the Summer on from a warm and dry June with a huge anticyclonic again over us.

Looks like the latter is continuing to be favoured.

My word of advice would be to focus on the weather up to Friday or Saturday for now because you'll find just too many chopping and changes afterwards.

Kermit.de.frog

Changes again for the weekend. UKMO keeps the very warm continental flow throughout delaying the incursion of thundery LP from the south until the early days of next week.

Sunday, very warm.

UW120-21.GIF?26-17

hatrickpatrick

Looks to me as if the aforementioned thundery spell may not happen at all now? That low pressure seems to be forecast to fill almost entirely by the time it actually gets to us.

GFS does show a rain band from some high pressure to our northeast for next Wednesday, but I'm unsure as to whether this would involve thunder or not - the rain is coming from an Atlantic system, but the high pressure is persisting over Ireland in this setup - we're essentially sitting on the boundary of the jet stream:

gfs-0-180.png?6

I know ye were saying to stick with the ECM, but unfortunately it doesn't have precicptation charts, at least not on Meteociel. The ECM's nearest forecast window for this period is 168-192 hours, so here's a GIF which flips between the two:

What kind of setup would we get from this, with regard to rain, temperature and/or the possibility of thunderstorms? I was getting kinda excited at the prospect of some decent thunder for the weekend so holding on to the idea that it's not quite dead yet

MJohnston

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I know ye were saying to stick with the ECM, but unfortunately it doesn't have precicptation charts, at least not on Meteociel.

Try weather.us - it has precip accumulation charts, low-res 'overview' (which includes precip), and a much better version of the ECM output in general than Meteociel.

cherryghost

NAVGEM says 35 in areas next Monday

No breakdown until well into Tuesday.

sdanseo

ECM quickly changing magazines and reloading next weekend. GEM agreeing

ECU1-240.GIF?28-12

Harry Palmr

Looks like a wobble at most.

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO - high pressure building in from the southwest towards the end of next week.

GFS - more or less the same trend.

Donegal Storm

ECMWF also on board, a brief interlude of cooler (but still warm) weather over the coming week before another huge area of high pressure builds right over us. Think our weather is officially broken if this comes to pass :pac:

Meteorite58

Looking promising. Been holding that pattern the last few runs. At the moment looks like the E astern side of the country getting the warmest temps, up into the high 20's. In general a warm week coming and increasing in temperatures towards the weekend. Will be watched closely no doubt

Donegal Storm

18z GFS is about as good as it gets for anyone wanting more of the same, warm/hot and settled right out to the end of the run on July 15th. A few showery days here and there but almost totally dry in the east

km79

Donegal Storm wrote: »

18z GFS is about as good as it gets for anyone wanting more of the same, warm/hot and settled right out to the end of the run on July 15th. A few showery days here and there but almost totally dry in the east

I want this !!!!

MetLuver

km79 wrote: »

I want this !!!!

Me too, but with a nice deluge to help with crops at some point. The worry is, if it rains, we want the good weather to continue later and not dissapear into an early summer memory. No sign of much rain on the models yet though.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z on board again. Very July 2013-esque.

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO same trend.

irishrover99

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 12z on board again. Very July 2013-esque.

Livers around Ireland shudderðŸºðŸº

Meteorite58

ECM showing the Warm/ Hot conditions continuing with heights building again from Fri right out to the end of the run with another Omega Block.

Very dry outlook also.

XL0e6qb.gif?1

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1013401458820206592

bloopy

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1013401458820206592

What is a 'mega ridge' and what effects does it have weather wise?

sryanbruen

bloopy wrote: »

What is a 'mega ridge' and what effects does it have weather wise?

In Summer, very warm/hot and settled conditions. They can be difficult to shift and especially with this strength of a ridge that the ECM shows, no doubt it wouldn't budge to at least a week and a half (can be longer). It's even more intense than the July 2013 ridge that brought over two weeks of very dry, warm and sunny conditions so could only imagine what this ridge would bring if it verifies. It's kind of similar to August 1995.

sryanbruen

12z runs continue the saga.

Meteorite58

Strong signals of HP from next week end into the following week.

3k7vJoi.png?1

pauldry

looked at 10 day forecast for Sligo on two sites

Both have no rain forecast.

Whatever about 1995 which had drizzle and mist in NW at times was 1976 this dry in Sligo

Never seen no rain forecast in Sligo 10 day

I thought Id typed the wrong town