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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

New posters, please read the forum charter before posting.

Regards,

The Politics Mods.

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[Deleted User]

https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?jcode=1586968

The UK have their job advertisement up for creating and leading the team for airspace negotiations.

About time.

flutered

Leroy42 wrote: »

You've got to hand it to May, she is some survivor. The can kicking is really something to behold.

if possible it will be kicked along until april19, unless the eu 27 says enough is enough

flutered

Leroy42 wrote: »

All very true Sam, but what is her option. Tell him to feck off, that he should stop or she won't be friends?

Do you think that will make Trump change? Or will it leave the UK swinging in the wind at a time that it is looking very likely to crash out of its current trading relationship with the EU.

It may well end up losing out anyway, but at least she needs to keep up the appearance that they have a relationship

put the uk in place of the statue of liberty in that cartoon, for all trumps thinks about it, he idolises power and mullah nothing else, look at how he has turned his presidency into a money making racket

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?jcode=1586968

The UK have their job advertisement up for creating and leading the team for airspace negotiations.

About time.

Comedy gold

Open to UK, Commonwealth and European Economic Area (EEA) and certain non EEA nationals.

So in theory you could get the job and then get deported after Brexit.

Or more likely you could be an EEA citizen who doesn't get the job despite being more qualified than the person who does and sue based on being rejected for not having future travel rights, even those haven't been defined yet.

Capt'n Midnight

ambro25 wrote: »

UK could lose £10bn a year in City-related tax revenue after Brexit.
...
Accessorily, that is Boris and Theresa’s “dividend” walking straight out the door early, £ms and £ms at a time: small brooks eventually make big rivers.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-banks/former-uk-financial-district-leader-sees-75000-brexit-job-losses-idUKKBN1JG1KV

75,000 well paid jobs going then.

The EU can't give the UK "Mutual Recognition" because that breaks the four freedoms rule, it puts them ahead of the EEA countries, and without oversight from the European Courts it even puts them ahead of EU countries.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-siemens/siemens-uk-boss-give-us-clarity-on-how-post-brexit-trade-will-work-idUSKBN1JG1U5
Head of Siemens UK is upset.

The Brexit bonus is tiny.
And it's putting at risk the 52% of the $1.1 trillion UK trade in goods last year that was with the EU.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44523513
They've promised* to match the EU funds for farming until 2022, it was £3Bn last year.

Take that one promise away from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) figures and you get
2020/21 Zero
2021/22 £300m - which is less than the weekly amount on that red bus.
2022/23 £2.8 Bn - about half the optimistic cost of a GPS system

*no I don't believe they will honour the promise. Grove had already said it would be linked to "environmental" stuff. And besides the Fishermen involved in the Cod Wars who lost their livelihoods had to wait over 35 years to get a measly grand in compo.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cod-wars-payment-is-too-little-too-late-gmwlh9djhcm

Leroy42

This is the headline and opening paragraph in the Express this evening;

Rees-Mogg DEMOLISHES Verhofstadt's claim that EU cannot flex its 'SACROSANCT' rules for UK

BREXITEER Jacob Rees-Mogg dismantled the European Union's negotiating strategy, telling EU Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt there is "considerable evidence" the bloc ignored its own rules to reach an agreement on previous occasions.

JRM makes the point that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them, he uses the example of them allowing bailouts when Maasstrict stated it couldn't.

His position being that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them so why are they holding out in the negotiations.

Verhofstadt gave a bit of a waffley answer, but my bet is that inside he was screaming "why the hell should we? You feckers caused all this mess and now you want us to change for you". But being a diplomat he merely said they couldn't.

Capt'n Midnight

To give an example of how the UK is part of the European supply system.
There could be a shortage of fizzy drinks and beer.

https://www.gasworld.com/breaking-news-co2-supply-crisis-hits-europe/2014944.article

It appears the UK is hardest hit – with only one major CO2 plant operating as we go to press. Very reliant on imports from Scandinavia and also the Netherlands – the UK is doubly impacted in that there are limited movements across the Channel due to the plant shut-downs in the Benelux and France limiting product to ship.

We're probably out on a limb ourselves , but our links to the continent have improved since the announcement of Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

Oh dear,

you only have to look at how long other EU trade deals took, where both sides were serious, to realise how possibe this is.

Guy Verhofstadt warns MPs of 'two decade' Brexit ratification

He said it would take the entire two-year transition period, which is due to kick in after Brexit on 29 March 2019, to sort out the details of future trading relations between the EU and UK.

But he warned MPs that it would take a lot longer if the political statement published in the autumn was not clear enough about what kind of relationship the EU was going to have with the UK.

Blowfish

Leroy42 wrote: »

JRM makes the point that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them, he uses the example of them allowing bailouts when Maasstrict stated it couldn't.

His position being that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them so why are they holding out in the negotiations.

I was actually watching that. JRM was trying to make the point that both the EU and UK could just not bother putting up a border if there was no deal. Verhofstadt said there had to be a border because of the EU rules, at which point JRM was saying they could just bend them as they've done it before.

Of course, the reality is that JRM is utterly wrong as not putting up a border would violate the WTO Most Favoured Nation rule. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt in that he's just completely unaware of this rather than trying to mislead, but someone should really sit him down and explain why this isn't an option as it's doing him no favours that his argument for hard brexit relies on it.

View

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the headline and opening paragraph in the Express this evening;

Rees-Mogg DEMOLISHES Verhofstadt's claim that EU cannot flex its 'SACROSANCT' rules for UK

BREXITEER Jacob Rees-Mogg dismantled the European Union's negotiating strategy, telling EU Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt there is "considerable evidence" the bloc ignored its own rules to reach an agreement on previous occasions.

JRM makes the point that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them, he uses the example of them allowing bailouts when Maasstrict stated it couldn't.

His position being that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them so why are they holding out in the negotiations.

Verhofstadt gave a bit of a waffley answer, but my bet is that inside he was screaming "why the hell should we? You feckers caused all this mess and now you want us to change for you". But being a diplomat he merely said they couldn't.

Except of course neither the Maastricht Treaty (or the TEU to be exact) nor any other EU Treaty states that the EU member states can’t give a “bailout” loan to an EU member state.

As for the rest, JRM needs to understand that “Brexit means Brexit”.

J Mysterio

Fantastic article here from Tom Peck in the Independent (UK). A bit direct in parts too!

"The Moment Brexit lost its Dignity"

Not sure there was ever any dignity in it to be lost though.

mickoneill31

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the headline and opening paragraph in the Express this evening;

JRM makes the point that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them, he uses the example of them allowing bailouts when Maasstrict stated it couldn't.

His position being that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them so why are they holding out in the negotiations.

Verhofstadt gave a bit of a waffley answer, but my bet is that inside he was screaming "why the hell should we? You feckers caused all this mess and now you want us to change for you". But being a diplomat he merely said they couldn't.

The eu can bend the rules. But they'll do this for an eu member (eg the NI backstop to help Ireland). As you say, why would they do it for a third country (eg. when the UK tried to get the backstop for the whole UK to help the UK). I don't know why the UK still doesn't get this.
They're not going to get exceptions just because they're the UK. That only worked when they were part of the club.

Peregrinus

Sam Russell wrote: »

The use of religious designations for voters is suspect. Are they self declared, or assumed?

They are the respondents' own identifications.

Sam Russell wrote: »

The term 'Catholic', 'Nationalist', 'Republican', or for the other side - 'Protestant', 'Unionist', 'Loyalist' are used by different pundits to mean different things - quite often a graded distinction.

Again, the respondents' own identifications.

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is like the adverts that declare - '85% of cats that showed a preference, chose our Tiddles cat food' without saying how many cats did not show a preference. I wonder how many respondents did not declare their religion or the way they voted? Lies, damn lies, and poll results.

This information is in the full poll report. Out of 1,666 respondents in NI, 290 identified as "no religion", 204 did not identify a party for which they voted, and 97 did not say how they voted in the Brexit referendum.

Peregrinus

Trasna1 wrote: »

I don't think we can get on our high horse with regards to Trump. If he were visiting Ireland, the Irish government wouldn't rescind the invitation.

Perhaps not. But we did have the wit not to invite him in the first place.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the headline and opening paragraph in the Express this evening . . .

JRM makes the point that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them, he uses the example of them allowing bailouts when Maasstrict stated it couldn't.

His position being that the EU can bend the rules when it suits them so why are they holding out in the negotiations.

Because it doesn't suit us.

It suits us to bend the rules to support the union and express solidarity with its members. It doesn't suit us to bend the rules to undermine the union and incentivise leaving. How can that be hard to grasp?

Leroy42

So the rebellion turned out to be nothing, swept aside when the potential of having a new election and losing TM as PM was no doubt put to them. In the end they sided with the Tory party.

So now the government can go ahead on the basis of getting no deal.

The Express (I know not a surprise) seems to take this almost gleefully. Finally the UK can hold the threat of No-Deal over the heads of the the EU to get what they want. Of course they have always been holding that threat, this vote hadn't changed that it was an attempt to try to give parliament a voice to stop a no deal should it happen.

And having that threat certainly is something to have, although I would question the value they are placing on it. There is little doubt that the EU do not want a no deal scenario, and as such will try to avoid it within reason. Unfortunately, TM has painted red lines down all the areas that the EU would be looking for any concessions from the UK in return for a deal and so there appears little that the EU can actually offer them, save for some small things like access to Galileo, Eurotron etc.

But the risk to the UK of a No Deal to the UK is immeasurably worse, both in absolute and % terms. Even the UK have produced reports that show just how bad it would be, and the EU know that. So how much of a threat is it really? It like a bank robber saying he will kill himself unless he gets given the plane by the cops, but they will have to clean up the blood!

I don't understand why the UK cannot see this. i get the usual position that one must always have point at which you ware prepared to walk away, but that doesn't always hold true.

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

So the rebellion turned out to be nothing, swept aside when the potential of having a new election and losing TM as PM was no doubt put to them. In the end they sided with the Tory party.

So now the government can go ahead on the basis of getting no deal.

The Express (I know not a surprise) seems to take this almost gleefully. Finally the UK can hold the threat of No-Deal over the heads of the the EU to get what they want. Of course they have always been holding that threat, this vote hadn't changed that it was an attempt to try to give parliament a voice to stop a no deal should it happen.

And having that threat certainly is something to have, although I would question the value they are placing on it. There is little doubt that the EU do not want a no deal scenario, and as such will try to avoid it within reason. Unfortunately, TM has painted red lines down all the areas that the EU would be looking for any concessions from the UK in return for a deal and so there appears little that the EU can actually offer them, save for some small things like access to Galileo, Eurotron etc.

But the risk to the UK of a No Deal to the UK is immeasurably worse, both in absolute and % terms. Even the UK have produced reports that show just how bad it would be, and the EU know that. So how much of a threat is it really? It like a bank robber saying he will kill himself unless he gets given the plane by the cops, but they will have to clean up the blood!

I don't understand why the UK cannot see this. i get the usual position that one must always have point at which you ware prepared to walk away, but that doesn't always hold true.

The trouble is that a no deal scenario will not impact in the slightest on the living standards of those at the sharp end, the jrms of this world, surely one of the most unpleasant people in European politics, will actually make a lot of money. The people it will effect are either those who didn't want to leave, or plenty who haven't quite understood the box they have opened here.
May has totally ignored the views of 48% of the then voting age population, and, in truth, likely a small majority of the population now. She will be reviled in years to come.

Leroy42

But it isn't just JRM. It is a large part of the media and if we are being honest a large portion of the population.

Polls seem to suggest little movement in attitudes since the vote, if anything people simply just want to get on with it. If it was JRM alone then he would be treated much the same of Farage was, a nice segment on the news but not to be taken too seriously.

But like Farage, JRM does speak for what a lot of people believe (and of course their is the argument about how they ended up believing it).

trellheim

But like Farage, JRM does speak for what a lot of people believe

JRM and Farage are loons plain and simple. If you get your news off the crisp packet that is the Mail or the Sun then of course you are going to want out.

In other news Juncker addressing a joint houses of the Oireachtas later. Not sure thats going to help matters lol

Leroy42

They might well be loons, but a significant portion of the population and certainly the parliament as a whole, agree with them. The government and Labour would. whilst not agreeing with everything, agree with the fundamental position of Brexit.

Mezcita

Juncker in the Dail now.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/oireachtas-tv/dail-eireann-live/

"Ireland's border is Europe's border and it is our priority".

Laois_Man

Mezcita wrote: »

Juncker in the Dail now.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/oireachtas-tv/dail-eireann-live/

"Ireland's border is Europe's border and it is our priority".

So disingenuous, it's nauseating!
Surely everyone knows we're just a stick for them to beat the EU dissident Brits with!!

kunst nugget

Laois_Man wrote: »

So disingenuous, it's nauseating!
Surely everyone knows we're just a stick for them to beat the EU dissident Brits with!!

How's it disingenuous? It's not like Britain got booted out of the EU, they created this headache of the the border in Northern Ireland by leaving of their own accord - the EU is there to protect the interest of its member states.

Water John

One suspects Laois Man is being ironic.

kunst nugget

Water John wrote: »

One suspects Laois Man is being ironic.

Ah... it can be hard to tell sometimes.

ambro25

I guess that £20bn boost for the NHS has to come from somewhere, 'cos it ain't coming from any savings of Brexit:-

Taxes will rise to pay for NHS boost

Now I know it’s not nice to mock the afflicted, nor to laugh at the misfortune of others, but...HaHaHaHaHaHaHa!

Leroy42

Extra spending on the NHS is a good thing (I say that without wanting to get into a debate about efficiencies etc).

The problem TM had was they had stated in their manifesto not to raise taxes and so thought that using the Brexit Dividend could be used to soften the blow.

But, one of the reasons that Brexit continues to be supported is that many realise the, at least short-term, there is no economic benefit to Brexit and its about taking back control etc. So was never going to work, and was a poor attempt at a ruse.

But to me it just shows have totally unprepared about Brexit the government are and how much they are fighting to stay in power. This was clearly an attempt to distract from the Brexit process, so why the need to bring Brexit front and centre is strange.

The final issue is that surely the likes of JRM etc will be totally against this. How can the government raise taxes when their manifesto, on which they were elected, said they wouldn't. Surely the will of the people must be respect. I am expecting the Express and Daily Mail to lead with traitor headlines on any MP who votes for this!

EdgeCase

The Guardian is reporting that the Irish Customs and Revenue are planning for border controls and checks on all sorts of traffic.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/brexit-ireland-could-bring-in-ryanair-type-passport-controls

Really doesn't look very promising for cross border trade.

Worryingly and rather indicative of the dysfunctional state of the UK:

“We are considering solutions and it’s possible to say there are technical solutions, but once again we haven’t been able to discuss them with the UK,” he told the Freight Trade Association conference in London."

J Mysterio

Its looking very bleak for NI.

Peregrinus

J Mysterio wrote: »

Its looking very bleak for NI.

It always was. There's no good Brexit for NI.