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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

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The Politics Mods.

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Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Do you honestly believe the EU will hold it up if Ireland has a problem with <whatever gets agreed in the next few weeks > ?

Yes.

And if the worst comes to the worst and the EU tries throwing us under the Brexit bus, Ireland can veto the deal by ourselves without the EU.

Leroy42

^^ and therein lies the rub of the whole thing and exposes the UK's strategy for the baseless attempt that it is.

They have attempted to divide and conquer when what they needed was consensus. They needed to sell their vision of whatever plan they had to the 27, primarily to Ireland. What they have done is tried to lay down red lines and threats.

So Ireland is indeed faced with a decision. Side with the EU which have throughout the process attempted to understand our position and look for ways to minimise the effects to us, or side with the UK which has shown total disregard and sometimes open hostility to our concerns.

CelticRambler

Akrasia wrote: »

That's pretty depressing, but it also means that if there was another referendum, that voters would reject a hard brexit given that one would assume that the vast majority of remain voters would not agree to a hard border or the breakup of the UK.

I don't read it as depressing; more like a confirmation of what's been repeatedly discussed on this thread - that the media allow the likes of JRM, IDS, NF & BJ to spout all kinds of nonsense in respect the NI-EU(RoI) border, without any challenge as to the implications of whatever arrangements are put in place, or not.

It would be interesting to see the geographical breakdown of the survey, but again, I think we can reasonably assume that the majority of participants don't really understand what or where Northern Ireland is, or what relevance it has to England-GB.

From the IT article, what I find most striking is this:

64 per cent said Northern Ireland was on the wrong track, compared to 25 per cent who thought it was on the right track. But 55 per cent of those in Northern Ireland said the Republic was on the right track

Never mind the hypothetical "would you vote for reunification if there was a poll tomorrow?" - if that difference in sentiment continues for more than a couple of years post Brexit, then a border poll (and probably reunification) will be almost inevitable.

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

Never mind the hypothetical "would you vote for reunification if there was a poll tomorrow?" - if that difference in sentiment continues for more than a couple of years post Brexit, then a border poll (and probably reunification) will be almost inevitable.

And if Brexit is a shambles with all sorts of horrible economic effects in the UK while the Republic hums along inside the EU, that sentiment will be reinforced every year.

[Deleted User]

J Mysterio wrote: »

Only one in three British voters said they could not accept a different status for Northern Ireland after Brexit and six out of 10 Leave voters said that leaving the EU was more important than keeping the United Kingdom together.

Hmm. That must make for very uncomfortable reading for Arlene Foster and the DUP. 'We want to be treated the same as the rest of the UK.' Meh. The average leave voter in, say, Essex couldn't care less about NI.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

Hmm. That must make for very uncomfortable reading for Arlene Foster and the DUP. 'We want to be treated the same as the rest of the UK.' Meh. The average leave voter in, say, Essex couldn't care less about NI.

Uncomfortable, perhaps, but it won't come as a surprise to her. The reason hardline unionists radiate such manifest insecurity is because they know they are heavily invested in a relationship with people who are not that into them.

[Deleted User]

Peregrinus wrote: »

Uncomfortable, perhaps, but it won't come as a surprise to her. The reason hardline unionists radiate such manifest insecurity is because they know they are heavily invested in a relationship with people who are not that into them.

It's ironic really, but the more Foster bangs the Brexit drum, the more she destabilises the Union itself. The relationships between North/South plus Ireland & Britain appeared to reach an acceptable equilibrium to most people as it developed within the greater umbrella of the EU. Brexit really is an unwelcome intrusion re all this.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Uncomfortable, perhaps, but it won't come as a surprise to her. The reason hardline unionists radiate such manifest insecurity is because they know they are heavily invested in a relationship with people who are not that into them.

That relationship has become very strained and this poll demonstrates the growing estrangement. Pretty soon, I reckon Arelene can expect a text from Theresa along the lines of "It's not me, it's you."

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That relationship has become very strained and this poll demonstrates the growing estrangement. Pretty soon, I reckon Arelene can expect a text from Theresa along the lines of "It's not me, it's you."

Curse their sudden but inevitable betrayal!!!

Really though, there is going to come a point when May has absolutely nothing to lose, then what? And what exactly has the DUP achieved in this 'kingmaking' role? Very little truth be told, a little cash that has only about half appeared and a disenfranchised angry electorate.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

Curse their sudden but inevitable betrayal!!!

Really though, there is going to come a point when May has absolutely nothing to lose, then what? And what exactly has the DUP achieved in this 'kingmaking' role? Very little truth be told, a little cash that has only about half appeared and a disenfranchised angry electorate.

Plus they'll have shot their bolt with The Conservative and Unionist Party. The Tories won't forget how they hamstrung and humiliated their PM. They could turn to Corbyn I suppose...

Water John

The rerun of the Dominic Grieve vote next week should be interesting. Fool me once etc. I can see the Govn't loose this one.

Panrich

Well this poll is depressing for all of us who want to avoid a hard border The amount of support for a hard Brexit in the UK is astounding to me.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit-the-border-and-the-union/

Looking at the Tory voters views give an insight into the policy direction and trajectory that they are on but it's an appalling vista for this country.

Zubeneschamali

Panrich wrote: »

it's an appalling vista for this country.

Well, I wouldn't go that far. A hard border along with a hard Brexit will be tough short term, but then a United Ireland could kill SF off in a few years, so there's a silver lining.

flutered

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Well, I wouldn't go that far. A hard border along with a hard Brexit will be tough short term, but then a United Ireland could kill SF off in a few years, so there's a silver lining.

i recon the sf are here to stay, they look as if the are pushing ff for second spot

J Mysterio

Brexit: EU leaders set to warn Theresa May over talks and step up preparations for ‘no deal', leaked documents reveal

Leak:

1) In light of the state of play presented by the Union negotiator, the European Council welcomes the further progress made on parts of the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement. 2) The European Council expresses its concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved on agreeing a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland. It recalls the commitments undertaken by the UK in this respect in December 2017 and March 2018, and insists on the need for intensified efforts so that the Withdrawal Agreement, including its provisions on transition, can be concluded as soon as possible in order to come into effect on the date of withdrawal. It recalls that negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full. 3) Work must also be accelerated with a view to preparing a political declaration on the framework for the future relationship. This requires further clarity from the UK as regards its position on the future relationship. The European Council reconfirms its position set out in the guidelines March 2018. 4) The European Council renews its call upon Member States and all stakeholders to step up their work on preparedness at all levels for all outcomes.

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit: EU leaders set to warn Theresa May over talks and step up preparations for ‘no deal', leaked documents reveal

Leak:
1) In light of the state of play presented by the Union negotiator, the European Council welcomes the further progress made on parts of the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement. 2) The European Council expresses its concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved on agreeing a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland. It recalls the commitments undertaken by the UK in this respect in December 2017 and March 2018, and insists on the need for intensified efforts so that the Withdrawal Agreement, including its provisions on transition, can be concluded as soon as possible in order to come into effect on the date of withdrawal. It recalls that negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full. 3) Work must also be accelerated with a view to preparing a political declaration on the framework for the future relationship. This requires further clarity from the UK as regards its position on the future relationship. The European Council reconfirms its position set out in the guidelines March 2018. 4) The European Council renews its call upon Member States and all stakeholders to step up their work on preparedness at all levels for all outcomes.

And watch how this is turned around as the Europe telling them what to do.

catrionanic

J Mysterio wrote: »

2) The European Council expresses its concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved on agreeing a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland. It recalls the commitments undertaken by the UK in this respect in December 2017 and March 2018, and insists on the need for intensified efforts so that the Withdrawal Agreement, including its provisions on transition, can be concluded as soon as possible in order to come into effect on the date of withdrawal. It recalls that negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full.

It certainly doesn’t sound like they’re gearing up to throw Ireland under any Brexit buses.

EdgeCase

catrionanic wrote: »

It certainly doesn’t sound like they’re gearing up to throw Ireland under any Brexit buses.

They're not. That's largely Tory fantasy stuff.

Capt'n Midnight

So the UK are ditching the ECJ but want to keep European Arrest Warrant ?

No surprises here really.

His words are not likely to go down well with the UK's Brexit Secretary David Davis, who earlier this month singled the European Arrest Warrant out as one of the cornerstones of post-Brexit security co-operation with the EU.
...
Earlier this year the chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland said non-participation in the scheme was "probably the biggest practical vulnerability" facing law enforcement in Northern Ireland post-Brexit.

Anthracite

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So the UK are ditching the ECJ but want to keep European Arrest Warrant ?

No surprises here really.

UK: "We'd like to put the liberty of EU citizens in jeopardy without any accountability."
EU: "Uh no."

Capt'n Midnight

Labour donor in trouble setting up pro-Brexit groups in breach of his broadcasting licence.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44536391

trellheim

Well this poll is depressing for all of us who want to avoid a hard border

Thats an ashcroft poll he's one of the hardest brexiters out there, its a fox news type thing.

As for the leaked EU council docs above thats a very watertight ship normally, I suspect this is being done in advance ( and it rarely happens) . I would indeed be considering that as a warning to get your house in order.

Capt'n Midnight

Go is one of the oldest boardgames.

On a 19 x 19 board the number of legal positions is

2081681993819799846994786333448627702865224538845305484256394
5682092741961273801537852564845169851964390725991601562812854
6089888314427129715319317557736620397247064840935

WomanSkirtFan8

"six out of 10 Leave voters said that leaving the EU was more important than keeping the United Kingdom together."
I think that statement says it all really. They'd rather leave the EU even if it means that the UK breaks up in the process. Yep, that shows where their loyalties lie.

Leonard Hofstadter

I always got that feeling when I lived there. We were all considered to be 'Irish' over there anyway regardless of which side of the border we were from.

It's kind of like how we are all supposed to want a United Ireland tomorrow but secretly the majority of us like the theory of it but in reality we're quite happy for it to be (and remain) Britain's problem, over there officially NI is 'as British as Finchley' (to use Mrs Thatcher's words) but in reality they couldn't care less, and the poll shows this.

They would be quite happy for NI to be treated separately to the rest of the UK in order to achieve the Brexit they want, but the DUP won't allow it (despite bring perfectly content to be different to the UK when it suits them e.g. equal marriage, abortion etc).

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

It's ironic really, but the more Foster bangs the Brexit drum, the more she destabilises the Union itself. The relationships between North/South plus Ireland & Britain appeared to reach an acceptable equilibrium to most people as it developed within the greater umbrella of the EU. Brexit really is an unwelcome intrusion re all this.

Yes. The way things were shaping up before Brexit, the long-term demographic trend which will lead to a Catholic majority in NI before much longer was being offset by a growing propensity of Catholics to accept, if not enthusiastically support, NI's place within the Union. That was made possible because the open border and the GFA meant there was little tension between affirming an Irish identity and accepting the status quo.

Hard Brexit, and a hard border, will hole this below the waterline. If accepting NI's place within the UK means accepting a hard border in Ireland, Catholics are required to make a choice which it is very much in Arlene Foster's interest that they should not be required to make. The DUP should be a tireless advocate for the softest of soft Brexits.

Thomas_IV

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes. The way things were shaping up before Brexit, the long-term demographic trend which will lead to a Catholic majority in NI before much longer was being offset by a growing propensity of Catholics to accept, if not enthusiastically support, NI's place within the Union. That was made possible because the open border and the GFA meant there was little tension between affirming an Irish identity and accepting the status quo.

Hard Brexit, and a hard border, will hole this below the waterline. If accepting NI's place within the UK means accepting a hard border in Ireland, Catholics are required to make a choice which it is very much in Arlene Foster's interest that they should not be required to make. The DUP should be a tireless advocate for the softest of soft Brexits.

If they were reasonable they would, but as we know them, stupid and stubborn as they are, they push for a hard Brexit for the sake of 'being British' and thus go down with the UK. They don't care about the consequences reality will soon enough punish them with, they just share the same idiocy like the English Tories who are still caught in their 'happy Brexit times ahead bubble' which is the worst illusion ever.

Still, some resistance to a hard Brexit is slowly growing in GB but the UK govt is playing on time and continue in the way they did for the past two years to achieve nothing in the end in order to justify the hard Brexit and afterwards blame the EU for it. They can rely on their ignorant followers and supporters that they will swallow that ly too.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0620/971776-theresa_may_brexit/

Theresa May faces fresh Brexit Showdown

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces a showdown with her pro-EU MPs over parliament's role in the final Brexit deal, which could influence her entire negotiation strategy.

MPs will vote on amendments to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill setting out how much power MPs will have if the government fails to agree a departure deal before Brexit in March 2019.

Leroy42

Is part of the DUP stance based on the view that the UK will cover them in the event of any economic loss? We are looking at it as a terrible idea to stay out of EU from the NI economy, but maybe after such a long time being fed off the British state the DUP simply have the view that Britain will simply cover any shortfall (should it arise).

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is part of the DUP stance based on the view that the UK will cover them in the event of any economic loss? We are looking at it as a terrible idea to stay out of EU from the NI economy, but maybe after such a long time being fed off the British state the DUP simply have the view that Britain will simply cover any shortfall (should it arise).

SFAIK the DUP have not sought such a commitment, and certainly HMG have not given one.

Plus, it should be noted, Westminster extensively subsidises the government of NI, but most of the economic damage accruing from Brexit will affect individuals and businesses in the form of job losses, lost contracts, reduced profits, lost business, etc, etc. There will be a secondary impact on government finances in the form of lower tax take, higher claims on social services, etc. DUP might hope that UK will increase its subvention to keep the NI government solvent (although I wouldn't assume even that) but nobody can imagine that there will be cash handouts directly to private individuals and businesses to compensate them for Brexit-related costs and losses.

The Nordies will be screwed, economically speaking. The DUP knows this, but reckons it will make them identify more strongly with the UK. Or something.

Thomas_IV

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is part of the DUP stance based on the view that the UK will cover them in the event of any economic loss? We are looking at it as a terrible idea to stay out of EU from the NI economy, but maybe after such a long time being fed off the British state the DUP simply have the view that Britain will simply cover any shortfall (should it arise).

The DUP is rather ignoring the prospect of a growing support for a Scottish IndyRef2 which - by also growing support - has the chance to get a majority for Independence and this would lead to the break up of the Union in the event of a hard Brexit. In due course after that the financial support for NI from Westminster will become a matter to be scrutinised and revisited with a result in cuts for NI.

Sure, I also think that the DUP just reckons the way you described it.