Gaoth Laidir wrote: » I know how models work. My point is that, without proper historical observational records, these models cannot be as accurate as they could be. That was his point too. That's why I take models for what they are, but I have also put a lot of emphasis on observational records from actual station data. I posted some long-term observational data from stations in the Houston area last week, which you didn't comment on, as they showed a mixed trend, different to the one you were trying to put across. You came up with some outlandish theory of a power plant or resevoir "downwind" (whatever that means in the tropics). You seem to put all your faith in future predictions without actually taking past records into context.
dense wrote: » Brid Smith the socialist is on Newstalk now giving her expert opinion on preventing a two per cent rise in global temperatures. Two percent mentioned a number of times now. The universally undefined pre industrial base line that this two percent is increasing from has of course yet to be mentioned.......
Akrasia wrote: » The main reason why observational data is important for climatology (other than historical curiosity) is that it allows us to fine tune our model data. When you're looking at observational records and using them to assess the climate, what you're doing is creating an internal model of the climate system in your own mind and coming to a conclusion based on that. What computer modelling does, is it allows to create formal models that we can perform experiments on. The more historical data we have and the more background information we have about the causes and consequences of contributing factors to historical weather events, the better our models for the future will be. What you do Gaoth, is you often create very simple, one dimensional models using small datasets and single reference points to draw conclusions about wider climate systems. And you use these very simple (overly simplistic) models to disregard the complex scientifically verifiable models that are used by professional climatologists and research institutions who have dedicated teams of experts in their fields analysing the data and inputs and outputs of these models to refine them and improve their predictive ability.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » He stated that while confidence is lower, there is good agreement with many other indices, such as CET, Westerly Index, London-Paris Pressure, etc. Yep, I was thinking you'd be the first in there with the profile analysis and the "skeptic or not" statement. He also stated - when asked by Ray Bates on what the policy implications of this study are - that observational data are as important as model data, but we're lacking the former. The big push should be on recovering and digitising old data records, such as the one that he found in the UK purely by chance. Until we do that, we can't be sure of the historical context of future events. However, the severe events of the 18th century are fairly well verified.
Akrasia wrote: » It is interesting, it is worth noting, as they did in the paper that their confidence in the data for winters prior to 1790 is low, so these might be artifacts in the data record rather than actual weather events.
What is interesting is that Conor Murphy, given that he is an expert in climate and cydrology in Ireland is absolutely not a climate change skeptic. He spoke at the citizens assembly passionately urging action to prevent severe consequences for Ireland and for the rest of the world. For Ireland, under a 2c warming scenario, we will see 100 year floods more likely by between 10-30%, and rainfall intensity increasing by between 10-25% as well as a host of other consequences including much higher increases in the risk of extended heatwaves similar to 1995 (a factor of 50 times more likely) and an 8 times increase in the risk of extremely dry summers like 1995.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » Interesting IMS talk by Conor Murphy of ICARUS this evening on his 305-year continuous rainfall record for the Island of Ireland (1711-2016). Well worth a read.https://www.clim-past.net/14/413/2018/cp-14-413-2018.pdf
Recent national scale extreme events, from the winter storms of 2013/14 to the flooding of the Shannon and other catchments associated with Storm Desmond, serve to highlight Ireland’s vulnerability to extreme events. Much work has been completed by different research groups from Irish Universities and Met Eireann on exploring future impacts. This work shows that here we are likely to experience wetter winters, drier summers and more frequent extreme weather events, with associated implications across multiple sectors. However for communication purposes perhaps the most useful study is that of Matthews et al. (2016) who examined how the probability of memorable extreme events have changed in the past and how frequent such extremes are likely to become in future. Over the period 1900–2014 records suggest that a summer as warm as 1995 has become 50 times more likely, whilst the probability of a winter as wet as 1994/1995 (the wettest winter on record until winter 2015/2016) has doubled. The likelihood of the driest summer (1995) has also doubled since 1850. Under the business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenario, climate model projections suggest that our hottest summer historically may be seen as an unusually cool summer in future. By the end of the century, summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every 7 years or so. Winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may become 8 and 10 times more frequent, respectively. Insights into what these changes mean for Irish society is afforded by examining the impacts that these extremes had. The hot and dry summer of 1995 was associated with increased mortality (especially among the elderly and infirm) in Ireland. Rainfall deficits and water shortages in summer 1995 also adversely impacted the agricultural sector. The effects of the latter have the potential to be felt internationally through Ireland’s agricultural exports. The possibility of summer temperatures as warm as 1995 occurring almost 90 percent of the time by the end this century under a business as usual scenario must be of concern. Water shortages were a common occurrence across Ireland in 1995, with record low water levels on the Shannon impacting tourism. Water supplies for major cities like Dublin were also tested. Given that water supply in Dublin has failed to keep pace with increased demand from population growth and other factors, summers as dry as 1995 becoming 10 times more frequent would pose significant challenges for many of our large urban areas. The wettest winters on record have also been associated with widespread flooding. Under a business as usual scenario, winters as wet as 1994 becoming 8 times more frequent). Together with the population growth expected in Ireland over the coming decades, and the already high flood exposure, such change would likely make flooding a much more familiar experience for Irish society. To date, only one study has assessed future changes in floods and droughts across Europe in the context of mitigation being successful in limiting global warming to 2oC above preindustrial levels. This study shows that even at 2oC, the impacts of climate change for Ireland are likely to be significant, with Ireland being a hotspot for both floods and droughts within the context of Europe (Roudier et al., 2016). Such research shows that even if we, as a global community, are successful in realising ambitious greenhouse gas reductions, adaptation to climate change induced extremes will remain necessary.
Oneiric 3 wrote: » To be honest, when establishment figures begin to indulge in gender or racial identity politics in the effort to give themselves more political/cultural leverage, I lose much respect for them. Having said that, I am quite happy to pass the climate change problem over to 'feminists' for their consideration. Saves me the bother of having to deal with it. Far too busy enjoying my 'privilege'. (or something)
Abstract. A continuous 305-year (1711–2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British–Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006–2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record – all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (treering) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multicentennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.
Pa ElGrande wrote: » First world problems of wealthy white establishment women like Robinson (drawn down over 1 million in pensions so far + tax breaks before she got called on it.) using the language of feminism to advance themselves so they too can sit on boards and decide how to distribute resources while lining their own pockets.
Akrasia wrote: » . . . . . When women have access to education, contraception and personal autonomy then we will see the populations of these countries begin to stabilise naturally and poverty levels will decrease.
Akrasia wrote: » You guys need to recalibrate your rageometer if this is what gets you angry.
E&P is our main business. It is currently present in over 40 countries and is focused on finding and producing oil and gas.
Oneiric 3 wrote: » "Robinson, also a former U.N. climate envoy, said women were most adversely affected by disasters" Are they? Are they really? Would be interesting to know how Robinson came to this conclusion.
Pa ElGrande wrote: » Climate change a 'man-made problem with a feminist solution' says Robinson
LONDON, June 18 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Women must be at the heart of climate action if the world is to limit the deadly impact of disasters such as floods, former Irish president and U.N. rights commissioner Mary Robinson said on Monday. Robinson, also a former U.N. climate envoy, said women were most adversely affected by disasters and yet are rarely “put front and centre” of efforts to protect the most vulnerable. “Climate change is a man-made problem and must have a feminist solution,” she said at a meeting of climate experts at London’s Marshall Institute for Philanthropy and Entrepreneurship.source
Akrasia wrote: » No idea what you're on about Dense, I'm not gonna bother with your posts anymore. For anyone who actually cares about the science, a new study has just been published in Nature that did an extensive analysis of Antarctic ice melt, and they have found that the rate of Ice loss in the antarctic has been accellerating rapidly over the period between 1992 to 2017 Total antarctic ice loss in the period between 1992 to 1997 was -47 gigatonnes a year (+-67gts) In the most recent 5 year period, the ice loss is at -219 gts a year (+-43gts) Great news for everyone who lives slightly higher than where the current shoreline is. They're gonna have a shorter walk to the beach.https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0179-y.epdf?referrer_access_token=FCqLlLjq2MRZ-JOlpsa6aNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PBEKqWHTwARrIrR4OxoHFd5WZGh-A0FX8FPbkdWIZLYTiYEn7sFtTfv0uyTwXeaNPMrjI8nX5EeyZhC0hMOT-5WJGr-6chKWrrX3s_rMxS3qj2YpLUQ4VCllJgafutFAuELX0HV0p_EZyxMAGwCmX48wafEjINYg0k4YA331mQwy9RbzwZioGBAz9fCSEN4TebttPbYYuTbXRvXuvxFsCsfn970qIs_8GeioK6rt7z4w%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.wired.co.uk
Antarctica has lost about 3 trillion metric tons of ice since 1992
If the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, sea level would rise by about 57 meters, or 187 feet (Lythe et al. 2001). While this is unlikely for the foreseeable future, even a partial loss of these huge ice masses could have a significant effect on coastal areas. At present, both ice sheets are shrinking, but the rate is small (in terms of sea level contribution, on the order of about 1 millimeter per year).
Akrasia wrote: » So I can add 'the political system' to 'Climate science' as another thing that you have no understanding of Any elected TD can introduce a bill for debate, it doesn't mean it's going to pass, and even if it passes, it doesn't mean it's going to get through committee and the senate and become law.
Akrasia wrote: » It is utterly ludicrous to suggest that socialists have been in any way responsible for the fact that there is a global scientific consensus that we need to address climate change, or that socialists in Ireland have pushed the center left or center right political parties to agree to tackle climate change. It's ludicrous and if this is your actual considered belief on the subject, then you're an unwitting satire of your own position.
Akrasia wrote: » On the other hand, there is enormous evidence that certain 'libertarian' political parties and institution have been doing a lot to try and corrupt the debate and prevent action on climate change. Do you acknowledge the role that right wing libertarian parties have been lobbying governments to reduce or eliminate measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions?
dense wrote: » No, People Before Profit, you might have heard of them? Unless the dancers against climate change have gotten it wrong again? Someone should tell them- From their very own website:https://www.stopclimatechaos.ie/news/2018/02/05/5-simple-things-you-can-do-to-support-the-climate/ I do agree it does read like an attempt at satire, but they seem deadly serious about it. We really shouldn't laugh, they might be offended.
Pa ElGrande wrote: » HOW THE EARTH BECAME A HOTHOUSE: BY H2O Wim Röst
Pa ElGrande wrote: The modern welfare state is built on left leaning economic policies or did you miss the part about taxes especially
ABSTRACT Water, H2O, determines the ‘General Background Temperature’ for the Earth, resulting in Hothouse and Ice House Climate States. During geological periods the movement of continents changes the position of continents, oceans and seas. Because of the different configurations, a dominant warm or a dominant cold deep-water production configuration ‘sets’ average temperatures for the deep oceans. Changing vertical oceanic circulation changes surface temperatures, especially in the higher latitudes. During a Hot House State, higher temperatures in the high latitudes result in a high water-vapor concentration that prevents a rapid loss of thermal energy by the Earth. These three processes, plate tectonics (continental drift), vertical oceanic circulation variability and variations in atmospheric water vapor concentration and distribution, caused previous Hot House and Warm House Climate States. A change in the working of those mechanisms resulted in a transition from the previous Hot House Climate State to the very cold ‘Ice House State’ that we live in now. That change was set in motion by the changing configuration of continents, oceans and seas.source
Wanderer78 wrote: » again, left leaning economic policies have played little or no part in modern economics, its clearly obvious we ve been engaging in highly conservative economics for decades now, particularly since the age of financialization.
dense wrote: » Pretending to be baffled in order to prevent the socialists from claiming they've introduced the Climate Emergency Measures Bill is a strange tactic to adopt. Let's cut the permanently whinging socialists some slack here and give them the credit they deserve for introducing this very important emergency measure.http://www.bridsmith.net/brid-smith-td-introduces-climate-emergency-measures-bill-2017/ It's the only thing they've managed to do other than shout about water charges.
Wanderer78 wrote: » Left leaning political parties, particularly those with left leaning economic ideologies, are largely powerless in modern politics, so it's baffling to think you think they are to blame for such issues.
dense wrote: No, People Before Profit, you might have heard of them?
Akrasia wrote: » its also natural to laugh at satire and comedy. I can't believe that anyone actually believes some of the nonsense you come out with, so I'm assuming you're attempting satire. I mean, you just said that People not Profit are responsible for pushing global warming as an agenda. Its ludicrous.
This Wednesday February 7th could prove to be a turning point for Irish climate policy. The Climate Emergency Measures Bill [1] introduced by Bríd Smith TD, People Before Profit, will be debated this Wednesday at 3:35pm.
