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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

New posters, please read the forum charter before posting.

Regards,

The Politics Mods.

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Dymo

This sentance

The UK will continue to apply the same rules as the EU, meaning that access to each other’s markets will continue on current terms.

And then this

The UK able to negotiate, sign and ratify free trade agreements (FTAs) with rest of world partners and implement those elements that do not affect the functioning of the temporary customs arrangement.

What if there new partners aren't up to EU standards?

Sam Russell

Dymo wrote: »

This sentance

And then this

What if there new partners aren't up to EU standards?

Well, if they mean what it says, (not always certain), then they can agree and sign only those agreements that are up to EU standards, otherwise they will not comply with the first bit -

The UK will continue to apply the same rules as the EU, meaning that access to each other’s markets will continue on current terms.

You cannot have your cake and it - I read somewhere.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

Yes, first Transition, then Backstop, if no agreement.
A Backstop, by Definition has no time limit. If it has, it isn't a Backstop, as something comes after it.
That's my understanding of both, legal issues and the English language.

Yes. So it's a 'transition period', which is not really a transition period but is essentially just an extension of negotiations until 2021m by which time they are hoping they can magic up another trick. Then.... more transition to implement new magic solution?

EU should really tell them to go to hell. It's the originally agreed backstop, or hard Brexit. Seriously getting fed up of this sh1te at this stage.

The backstop was - in the first place - a backstop. It was third of three options, inserted at EU's insistence in the event that the UK could not propose a better solution, which the EU could not see. It's obvious that the UK doesnt have a better solution, despite all their bleating for so long. so now back to the backstop and fudge that too? It shouldn't be allowed. The UK made their bed, now they need to lie in it.

Thomas_IV

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes. So it's a 'transition period', which is not really a transition period but is essentially just an extension of negotiations until 2021m by which time they are hoping they can magic up another trick. Then.... more transition to implement new magic solution?

EU should really tell them to go to hell. It's the originally agreed backstop, or hard Brexit. Seriously getting fed up of this sh1te at this stage.

The backstop was - in the first place - a backstop. It was third of three options, inserted at EU's insistence in the event that the UK could not propose a better solution, which the EU could not see. It's obvious that the UK doesnt have a better solution, despite all their bleating for so long. so now back to the backstop and fudge that too? It shouldn't be allowed. The UK made their bed, now they need to lie in it.

They are playing time to waste it and go for a hard Brexit to afterwards blame the EU for all of it. I am sure that the bigot Brexiters will even buy into this cheap propaganda too.

This article below is not Brexit linked but it sheds a light on the current problems in the retail sector of the UK and the loss of jobs this article is about might be just a taste for what might come when Brexit really kicks in and I have no doubt that a hard Brexit will hit the retail sector hard.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/07/house-of-fraser-to-close-more-than-half-of-its-british-stores

Here is a full list of jobs either lost or at risk and the numbers are not just in the hundred, but go into the thousands.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/07/high-street-woes-a-list-of-lost-shops-and-Jobs

Thomas_IV

J Mysterio wrote: »

December 2021 - wasn't the cutoff off the transition agreement to be 2020?

Yes, it is December 2020. With the prospect of a hard Brexit as the final result, it might not last that long anyway.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier literally gives a diplomatic response:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1004706411874541568

"Is it an all weather backstop?" There's the rub.

Anthracite

If I was the IDA, I'd be lobbying the hell out of Japanese car makers to establish a base of manufacturing in the EU.

Zubeneschamali

26. The UK is clear that the temporary customs arrangement, should it be needed, should be time limited, and that it will be only in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced.

If you cross out the waffly wishy bits, it says:

The UK is clear that the temporary customs arrangement will be in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced.

Which is perfectly fine.

Sam Russell

Anthracite wrote: »

If I was the IDA, I'd be lobbying the hell out of Japanese car makers to establish a base of manufacturing in the EU.

That would be unnecessary. If the UK leaves the SM, then cars exported from the UK to the EU will not be imported into the EU tariff free if their content is not more than 55% UK manufacture - which currently they are not. However, EU cars will be over 55% manufactured in the EU so will be imported tariff free.

So Brexiteers can continue to buy their German luxury cars tariff free, but the EU will not be able to buy their UK produced Hondas, Toyotas, Opel Astras, or Opel/Renault/Nissan vans tariff free. The EU van purchasers will have to buy Fiat or Mercedes or VW or Peugeot vans instead. 10% extra is a lot on a van.

An Ciarraioch

Coveney issues a "holding" response:

https://mobile.twitter.com/dfatirl/status/1004708843434184704

An Ciarraioch

Coveney issues a "holding" response:

https://mobile.twitter.com/dfatirl/status/1004708843434184704

Professor Moriarty

Here's an analysis of Barnier's response. Not exactly being welcomed with open arms.

1) “Is it a workable solution to avoid a hard border?” Barnier seems to be pointing out that the document published today only covers the customs element of the backstop. The backstop plan set out in the December joint report by the UK and the EU (pdf) said the backstop would have to involve “full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union”. In other words, it would have to go further than just remaining an effective member of the customs union.

2) “Does it respect the integrity of the SM/CU [single market/customs union]?” This is a similar point. But whenever Barnier talks about the “integrity” of the single market, he tends to be referring to accepting European court of justice rulings. Today’s document (pdf) does include a passage on dispute resolution, but it does not go as far as saying the UK would continue to be bound by ECJ rulings while the backstop was operating.

3) “Is it an all-weather backstop?” This seems to be a way of asking whether it would last as long as necessary. The UK government says clearly (see 1.44pm) that it expects it would only last for a year.

Anthracite

Sam Russell wrote: »

That would be unnecessary. If the UK leaves the SM, then cars exported from the UK to the EU will not be imported into the EU tariff free if their content is not more than 55% UK manufacture - which currently they are not. However, EU cars will be over 55% manufactured in the EU so will be imported tariff free.

So Brexiteers can continue to buy their German luxury cars tariff free, but the EU will not be able to buy their UK produced Hondas, Toyotas, Opel Astras, or Opel/Renault/Nissan vans tariff free. The EU van purchasers will have to buy Fiat or Mercedes or VW or Peugeot vans instead. 10% extra is a lot on a van.

Indeed. So dear Honda, build your new factory in Ireland and sell to the EU tariff free.

EdgeCase

Dymo wrote: »

This sentance

And then this

What if there new partners aren't up to EU standards?

That where the wheels fall off.

French farmers are already assuming that it will be used to undermine them and were calling for a hard border back in 2017.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1004732828863647744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Fblog%2Flive%2F2018%2Fjun%2F07%2Fformer-brexit-minister-says-mays-backstop-plan-extremely-damaging-for-britain-politics-live

Guy Verhofstadt say's its not workable . All the effort and strive in the cabinet and the proposal doesn't even stay viable for an hour.

Sierra Oscar

It's not a backstop if it's time limited. Sure the whole point of a backstop is to provide a clearly defined acceptable fall back position should negotiations fail / run on indefinitely.

We're heading for a hard Brexit if this nonsense continues.

judeboy101

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

Panrich

judeboy101 wrote: »

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

The problem that they have is that there is no political direction to follow and therefore cannot work effectively. The EU side has all it's homework done well in advance and the position has remained stable and on message politically since the outset.

It's impossible to see the UK civil service creating any coherent plans (sneaky or otherwise) out of the political mess that they're working with.

flatty

Panrich wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

The problem that they have is that there is no political direction to follow and therefore cannot work effectively. The EU side has all it's homework done well in advance and the position has remained stable and on message politically since the outset.

It's impossible to see the UK civil service creating any coherent plans (sneaky or otherwise) out of the political mess that they're working with.

I have been reliably informed that this is the case pretty much from the horses mouth. "never in my time have I seen such an absolute dearth of leadership" is a direct quote.

judeboy101

Panrich wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

The problem that they have is that there is no political direction to follow and therefore cannot work effectively. The EU side has all it's homework done well in advance and the position has remained stable and on message politically since the outset.

It's impossible to see the UK civil service creating any coherent plans (sneaky or otherwise) out of the political mess that they're working with.

They have just pulled a sneaky one. My reading of this is we keep a backstop, but its not really a backstop. It makes everyone look good, meanwhile they push out the day of reckoning in the hopes that the EU comes under internal pressures from some other source. And then they push hard.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

They have just pulled a sneaky one. My reading of this is we keep a backstop, but its not really a backstop. It makes everyone look good, meanwhile they push out the day of reckoning in the hopes that the EU comes under internal pressures from some other source. And then they push hard.

They've pulled nothing . No one is fooled by this. EU has basically rejected it out of hand while maintaining language that's just diplomatic enough to pretend they are considering it.

maynooth_rules

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They've pulled nothing . No one is fooled by this. EU has basically rejected it out of hand while maintaining language that's just diplomatic enough to pretend they are considering it.

This. They have attempted yet another fudge and it will backfire spectacularly.

swampgas

The fact that there is so much in-fighting going on over the backstop agreement (by the UK) suggests very strongly that May and Davis expect they will have to use it. Which means they don't have any alternative.

If their current backstop proposal is rejected by the EU, the UK won't have a whole lot of time to pull together a realistic alternative. A hard, chaotic Brexit looks inevitable unless something seismic happens soon in UK politics.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

The fact that there is so much in-fighting going on over the backstop agreement (by the UK) suggests very strongly that May and Davis expect they will have to use it. Which means they don't have any alternative.

If their current backstop proposal is rejected by the EU, the UK won't have a whole lot of time to pull together a realistic alternative. A hard, chaotic Brexit looks inevitable unless something seismic happens soon in UK politics.

Or they just accept the original version as put forward in the legal text version of the December agreement. Of course that would involve a border down the Irish sea. They could dress that up as an extension of the existing phytosanitary and agriculture checks that already exist for imports into NI from the rest of the UK.

Small problem that 'No UK Prime Minister could accept a border on the Irish Sea'.

J Mysterio

Sam Russell wrote: »

Small problem that 'No UK Prime Minister could accept a border on the Irish Sea'.

Another thing inexplicably ruled out, another red line. It could be that today's drama was all a show to appease the DUP though. I genuinely wouldnt put it past them.

J Mysterio

Were I in the UK, I genuinely would create a store of canned food etc. Admittedly I am that sort though :pac:

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Norwegian PM in Brussels saying UK can't be cherry-picking and also saying soft Brexit makes no sense.

https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/

From back in May 2016 where she warns the UK about Norway's relationship with the EU https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-referendum-look-before-you-leap-norways-pm-tells-brexiteers/

While some in the U.K. see Norway’s looser relationship with the EU as a potential model for a post-Brexit Britain, Oslo sees a long list of drawbacks: losing influence in Brussels, being sidelined at meetings on defense policy, and having to accept EU rules in return for retaining access to the internal market.

“That type of connection is going to be difficult for Britain, because then Brussels will decide without the Brits being able to participate in the decision-making,” said Solberg.

Norway also has its own reasons for wanting Britain to vote “Remain” in its June 23 referendum on EU membership. Oslo has long relied on London’s free-market zeal to keep the EU’s interventionist instincts in check.

While in the EU the UK has some influence, outside it'll be a rule taker if it wants to trade with the EU. Trade with China or the US would also imply taking their rules.

Trasna1

judeboy101 wrote: »

They have just pulled a sneaky one. My reading of this is we keep a backstop, but its not really a backstop. It makes everyone look good, meanwhile they push out the day of reckoning in the hopes that the EU comes under internal pressures from some other source. And then they push hard.

But if we can see through the ruse, the negotiators are hardly going to be blind to it.

The UK is indeed playing for time, in the near certain eventuality that an external crisis will befall the continent

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I never realised that car makers ran the EU. You learn something new every day.

The VDA is the Germany Auto Industry Association.

They've been warning anyone who'd listen that Merkel would put the EU ahead of their profits. And besides if the EU split up they'd have to deal with 27 different regulatory bodies and... And then Sterling dropped and UK car demand dropped so the UK is no longer as profitable as it was, and besides the costs of Brexit were dwarfed by the emissions scandal fines.

German car makers warning about UK jobs, from June 2016

“It would be a serious setback for the industry and would surely result in some production sites relocating.”

Enzokk

Theresa May still has the almost impossible job*. She had to get the Tory rebels to support her next week and she had to appease the Brexiteers from walking in her cabinet. Seeing that all is happy suggests this is a fudge that both sides will see sense in.

The problem at the moment is we are way past fudging to Brexit. The UK jad to have a path set out already, yet they are trying to keep all people happy in parliament. This serves no purpose other than keeping May in Downing Street. She will need to nail her colours to a mast soon and we should know which one she has chosen by seeing whether David Davis and Gove and Johnson resigns, or that the ERG are happy about the path chosen. At the moment we still are in limbo, less than a year before Brexit.

*She has made this an impossible job herself by not choosing a direction. She has gone under water and will probably surface once things has settled.