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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

New posters, please read the forum charter before posting.

Regards,

The Politics Mods.

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Infini

dublinbuster wrote: »

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

Scotland is gone if there's a Hard Brexit, make no mistake they voted to remain emphatically and were overruled by little England and the welsh. They had a referendum on Independence and one of the reasons for voting to remain united was EU membership, something which is about to be taken away from them against their will and only a few short years after looking to keep it as such.

[Deleted User]

Thanks dublinbuster for showing us just how desperate the Brexit crowd are.

"All we need is some Muslim terrorists killing our people. That will let us ramp up war in the Middle East, and threaten the EU with higher oil prices. EZ Win GG."

Peregrinus

dublinbuster wrote: »

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

Because they reckon their best interests lie in remaining in a country governed by a women who foments internal terrorism in order to find an excuse to participate in a war alongside Donald Trump with the objective of alienating her country's closest neighbours?

You forget that the Scots are proverbially canny, dublinbuster. They do not hate their country. They voted against Brexit, remember. Your belief in their stupidity is not supported by the evidence.

Anthracite

J Mysterio wrote: »

Unbelievably, they are now discussing running roughshod over the democratic process of a devolved government. Classic England. The irony is lost on them I think.

I don't think the UK subscribes to the EU principle of subsidiarity, and let's be honest, the whole notion of 'Britishness' was basically the English establishment's way of co-opting soldiers and resources from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.

J Mysterio

It's fascinating to see the UK parliamentarians actually taking an interest in Northern Ireland and quite bizarre really, to see they are all consumed with NI abortion law. Ireland had to have a referendum before it occurred to any of them that NI is quite backwards. Abortion, gay marraige, whatever. And the conservatives in bed with those who keep NI backward.

I'd wager a good half of parliament had (many still have) no understanding of NI, it's relationship to the UK and Ireland and the border. They can't get enough of it now.

Unbelievably, they are now discussing running roughshod over the democratic process of a devolved government. Classic England. The irony is lost on them I think.

The reporting should be interesting on this in the next few days, from all perspectives.

Anthracite

I think what we are seeing is a reaction to the realisation that the UK, the UK government and, to a lesser extent, the UK populace, have become an international laughing stock. That can't be pleasant.

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

The US LNG ships will go wherever the US government tells them to go.
Trump is not a fan of the EU, thats a fact.

"If you dont give us a deal ,we will support the US and Israel in a mid east war, best of luck keeping the EU/EURO alive when the price of oil skyrockets"

Please tell us your verison of Trump vs ZTE.

They broke all teh rules, trading with North Korea, and a national security technologlica threat, but Trump has got them off the hook because they have US suppliers. ie. those LNG ships will sail to where they can sell.

Currently the Euro is the second currency world wide after the Dollar. If oil starts to get traded in Euros that's a huge threat to the US.

dublinbuster

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The US LNG ships will sail to whoever pays them be it the UK or Lithuania.
L]

The US LNG ships will go wherever the US government tells them to go.
Trump is not a fan of the EU, thats a fact.

"If you dont give us a deal ,we will support the US and Israel in a mid east war, best of luck keeping the EU/EURO alive when the price of oil skyrockets"

dublinbuster

Mtx wrote: »

Bombs in the UK will increase the price of oil? Not sure how that's possible..
I would be more worried about Saudi Arabia than Israel.

Do you think after a few Muslim terrorist attacks in the UK, with the news saturated with stories and video of dead children the UK population will be out protesting the UK bombing the middle east.
The population of the UK would not give a hoot, it would be seen as pay back, the price of oil would skyrocket, the EU would be backed into a corner

dublinbuster

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If the price of oil skyrockets, the Scots will leave the UK.

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

WUT ?

We're now getting more than half of our gas from the Corrib and Inch and could put the Southwest Kinsale gas storage system back in use. This isn't the bad old days where most of our gas came from the UK.

The UK is at the end of the Norwegian and Russian gas pipelines which can be turned off faster than ships take to get from the Middle East to the oil refineries, process it and ship the fuel on. The US LNG ships will sail to whoever pays them be it the UK or Lithuania.

Higher fuel costs would not be good for the UK given the low consumer confidence there, so it's not exactly a credible treat.
Petrol prices rose by 6p a litre in May - the biggest monthly increase since the RAC began tracking prices 18 years ago.

The RAC said a "punitive combination" of higher crude oil prices and a weaker pound was to blame for the increases.
...
The RAC said the average prices of both petrol and diesel had risen every single day since 22 April, adding 8p a litre in the process. The motoring body said this was the longest sustained price increase since March 2015.

Mtx

dublinbuster wrote: »

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

Bombs in the UK will increase the price of oil? Not sure how that's possible..
I would be more worried about Saudi Arabia than Israel.

Charles Babbage

dublinbuster wrote: »

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

If the price of oil skyrockets, the Scots will leave the UK.

dublinbuster

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

mickoneill31

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Companies are changing their supply chains and work practices now. They're not doing this because it's easy or cheap. Even if Brexit is stopped or delayed it's unlikely that they'll go through the effort to reverse this work. They probably would over several years but that'd be business as usual work rather than a major project.
No matter how inept the Irish government ever seems to be we can now look over at the UKs as an example of what it's really like to have an incompetent government. If their remit was to mess it up I'm not sure if they could do a better job.

Rain Ascending

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

Professor Moriarty

dublinbuster wrote: »

Deleted post.

So he then goes to the other 27 countries and says: May has us all by the balls. She's going to join Israel and the US in causing a huge war in the Middle East which will spread across Europe. Or we can accede to her demands on trade.

What will the 27 countries say in response?

ancapailldorcha

Enough of the one-liners please.

Professor Moriarty

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

"Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU."

Jaysus. You think May will say that to Barnier? Okay. What do you think Barnier would say in response?

dublinbuster

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

J Mysterio

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Interesting facts/ figures, but really, the UK built the bomb and lit it themselves.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's almost as if the Tories didn't think Brexit through.

Given things like the snoopers charter it's still not a given that the UK will get data adequacy status nevermind "adequacy-plus".

A reminder
https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/law-topic/data-protection/data-transfers-outside-eu/adequacy-protection-personal-data-non-eu-countries_en

The European Commission has so far recognised Andorra, Argentina, Canada (commercial organisations), Faroe Islands, Guernsey, Israel, Isle of Man, Jersey, New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay and the US (limited to the Privacy Shield framework) as providing adequate protection.

Adequacy talks are ongoing with Japan and South Korea.

The Isle of Man is going for this gap in the market.

As a Crown dependency, the Isle of Man works with the UK but doesn't live by its rules.
...
Although Brexit will inevitably affect it, there's a hope that it will offer a more stable business environment than the UK.

Roanmore

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Charles Babbage

Labour amendment seeks 'full access' to EU market
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44377072

This of course requires paying into the kitty and having free movement, but if they get this kind of thing then the main thing needed in NI is agriculture stuff, which already exsists to some extent.

trellheim

Twitter seems to be pointing at news this week. Watch for where Olly robbins is

Here's the agenda for the week

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/agenda_5-8_june.pdf

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is kind of ironic. The UK Carer's industry could collapse by Brexit due to the ammount of EU nationals who care for the UK's elderly and infirm.

The end of EU free movementbecause of Brexit risks exacerbating the crisis in social care and causing a “domino effect” in the sector, new research has warned.

The services, which face growing demand because of an ageing population, currently have a deficit of 90,000 staff vacancies – with charities increasingly hiring skilled EU nationals to fill posts.

But 87 per cent of all EU charity workers employed in social care would not meet the conditions for work visas currently imposed on non-EU nationals, the study by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found, leaving charities “facing a perfect storm of high employee churn, skills shortages, low pay, and increasing labour demand”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-free-movement-social-care-charities-ippr-report-eu-citizens-rights-immigration-controls-a8384836.html

It's almost as if the Tories didn't think Brexit through.

J Mysterio

This is kind of ironic. The UK Carer's industry could collapse by Brexit due to the ammount of EU nationals who care for the UK's elderly and infirm.

The end of EU free movementbecause of Brexit risks exacerbating the crisis in social care and causing a “domino effect” in the sector, new research has warned.

The services, which face growing demand because of an ageing population, currently have a deficit of 90,000 staff vacancies – with charities increasingly hiring skilled EU nationals to fill posts.

But 87 per cent of all EU charity workers employed in social care would not meet the conditions for work visas currently imposed on non-EU nationals, the study by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found, leaving charities “facing a perfect storm of high employee churn, skills shortages, low pay, and increasing labour demand”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-free-movement-social-care-charities-ippr-report-eu-citizens-rights-immigration-controls-a8384836.html

McGiver

trellheim wrote: »

Sane Sun Headlines such as

Brussels was never going to let Britain be better off outside.

The Commission was determined to punish us for daring to leave. For believers in ever-closer union this an immutable article of faith.

Abandoning the True Path is a heresy punishable by economic death.

If we make it a success, we put the sacred Project in peril.

(today, see https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6441953/theresa-may-swag-bag-brexit-success/)

Yes well thats what you need to see with your bacon sandwich

Holy crap, this Sun article is like Russian propaganda...

McGiver

Strazdas wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bertie Ahern warned that his biggest worry is that the British government manage to push things to the October summit. Seems that's exactly what they are trying to do thinking presumably the EU will put pressure on Ireland at that stage.

This is the "Varadkar called in to a room by France and Germany for a chat" scenario at the October summit.

UK Brexit blueprint delayed until after summit

https://www.ft.com/content/c92f7ea6-67f4-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec

And if that wasn't bad enough Barnier seems to have done Dublin no favors today

Barnier Rejects Freezing Brexit Talks If No Irish Progress

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-04/barnier-rejects-freezing-brexit-talks-if-no-irish-progress

I wonder if Barnier has been misquoted here? It doesn't tally with what he has been consistently saying for the last six months or more.

He is just being diplomatic and kudos to his patience dealing with the lunatics on the other side. He has been too soft and too patient, but taking a harder stance now, there's no time left.
If he said "alright, no worries plenty of time left" the UK side would just keep doing nothing essentially staying a quasi-member for years. I don't think that's in anyone's interest. Either revoke A50 or get out on schedule deal or no deal. Everyone in the EU just wants to get this finished so that important issues can be dealt with (migration, Eurozone changes, general EU reform, FTAs with other countries etc). This whole Brexit thing is very disruptive.

An Ciarraioch

Some UK political commentators getting excited about a new Labour amendment seeking "full access to the Internal Market", but of course, full access is far from membership of the Single Market, and it all just appears to be an attempt to stave off a rebellion on the EEA vote.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1004038161289367552