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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

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The Politics Mods.

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Charles Babbage

Labour amendment seeks 'full access' to EU market
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44377072

This of course requires paying into the kitty and having free movement, but if they get this kind of thing then the main thing needed in NI is agriculture stuff, which already exsists to some extent.

Roanmore

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's almost as if the Tories didn't think Brexit through.

Given things like the snoopers charter it's still not a given that the UK will get data adequacy status nevermind "adequacy-plus".

A reminder
https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/law-topic/data-protection/data-transfers-outside-eu/adequacy-protection-personal-data-non-eu-countries_en

The European Commission has so far recognised Andorra, Argentina, Canada (commercial organisations), Faroe Islands, Guernsey, Israel, Isle of Man, Jersey, New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay and the US (limited to the Privacy Shield framework) as providing adequate protection.

Adequacy talks are ongoing with Japan and South Korea.

The Isle of Man is going for this gap in the market.

As a Crown dependency, the Isle of Man works with the UK but doesn't live by its rules.
...
Although Brexit will inevitably affect it, there's a hope that it will offer a more stable business environment than the UK.

J Mysterio

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Interesting facts/ figures, but really, the UK built the bomb and lit it themselves.

dublinbuster

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

Professor Moriarty

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

"Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU."

Jaysus. You think May will say that to Barnier? Okay. What do you think Barnier would say in response?

ancapailldorcha

Enough of the one-liners please.

Professor Moriarty

dublinbuster wrote: »

Deleted post.

So he then goes to the other 27 countries and says: May has us all by the balls. She's going to join Israel and the US in causing a huge war in the Middle East which will spread across Europe. Or we can accede to her demands on trade.

What will the 27 countries say in response?

Rain Ascending

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

mickoneill31

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Companies are changing their supply chains and work practices now. They're not doing this because it's easy or cheap. Even if Brexit is stopped or delayed it's unlikely that they'll go through the effort to reverse this work. They probably would over several years but that'd be business as usual work rather than a major project.
No matter how inept the Irish government ever seems to be we can now look over at the UKs as an example of what it's really like to have an incompetent government. If their remit was to mess it up I'm not sure if they could do a better job.

dublinbuster

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

Charles Babbage

dublinbuster wrote: »

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

If the price of oil skyrockets, the Scots will leave the UK.

Mtx

dublinbuster wrote: »

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

Bombs in the UK will increase the price of oil? Not sure how that's possible..
I would be more worried about Saudi Arabia than Israel.

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

WUT ?

We're now getting more than half of our gas from the Corrib and Inch and could put the Southwest Kinsale gas storage system back in use. This isn't the bad old days where most of our gas came from the UK.

The UK is at the end of the Norwegian and Russian gas pipelines which can be turned off faster than ships take to get from the Middle East to the oil refineries, process it and ship the fuel on. The US LNG ships will sail to whoever pays them be it the UK or Lithuania.

Higher fuel costs would not be good for the UK given the low consumer confidence there, so it's not exactly a credible treat.
Petrol prices rose by 6p a litre in May - the biggest monthly increase since the RAC began tracking prices 18 years ago.

The RAC said a "punitive combination" of higher crude oil prices and a weaker pound was to blame for the increases.
...
The RAC said the average prices of both petrol and diesel had risen every single day since 22 April, adding 8p a litre in the process. The motoring body said this was the longest sustained price increase since March 2015.

dublinbuster

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If the price of oil skyrockets, the Scots will leave the UK.

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

dublinbuster

Mtx wrote: »

Bombs in the UK will increase the price of oil? Not sure how that's possible..
I would be more worried about Saudi Arabia than Israel.

Do you think after a few Muslim terrorist attacks in the UK, with the news saturated with stories and video of dead children the UK population will be out protesting the UK bombing the middle east.
The population of the UK would not give a hoot, it would be seen as pay back, the price of oil would skyrocket, the EU would be backed into a corner

dublinbuster

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The US LNG ships will sail to whoever pays them be it the UK or Lithuania.
L]

The US LNG ships will go wherever the US government tells them to go.
Trump is not a fan of the EU, thats a fact.

"If you dont give us a deal ,we will support the US and Israel in a mid east war, best of luck keeping the EU/EURO alive when the price of oil skyrockets"

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

The US LNG ships will go wherever the US government tells them to go.
Trump is not a fan of the EU, thats a fact.

"If you dont give us a deal ,we will support the US and Israel in a mid east war, best of luck keeping the EU/EURO alive when the price of oil skyrockets"

Please tell us your verison of Trump vs ZTE.

They broke all teh rules, trading with North Korea, and a national security technologlica threat, but Trump has got them off the hook because they have US suppliers. ie. those LNG ships will sail to where they can sell.

Currently the Euro is the second currency world wide after the Dollar. If oil starts to get traded in Euros that's a huge threat to the US.

Anthracite

I think what we are seeing is a reaction to the realisation that the UK, the UK government and, to a lesser extent, the UK populace, have become an international laughing stock. That can't be pleasant.

J Mysterio

It's fascinating to see the UK parliamentarians actually taking an interest in Northern Ireland and quite bizarre really, to see they are all consumed with NI abortion law. Ireland had to have a referendum before it occurred to any of them that NI is quite backwards. Abortion, gay marraige, whatever. And the conservatives in bed with those who keep NI backward.

I'd wager a good half of parliament had (many still have) no understanding of NI, it's relationship to the UK and Ireland and the border. They can't get enough of it now.

Unbelievably, they are now discussing running roughshod over the democratic process of a devolved government. Classic England. The irony is lost on them I think.

The reporting should be interesting on this in the next few days, from all perspectives.

Anthracite

J Mysterio wrote: »

Unbelievably, they are now discussing running roughshod over the democratic process of a devolved government. Classic England. The irony is lost on them I think.

I don't think the UK subscribes to the EU principle of subsidiarity, and let's be honest, the whole notion of 'Britishness' was basically the English establishment's way of co-opting soldiers and resources from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.

Peregrinus

dublinbuster wrote: »

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

Because they reckon their best interests lie in remaining in a country governed by a women who foments internal terrorism in order to find an excuse to participate in a war alongside Donald Trump with the objective of alienating her country's closest neighbours?

You forget that the Scots are proverbially canny, dublinbuster. They do not hate their country. They voted against Brexit, remember. Your belief in their stupidity is not supported by the evidence.

[Deleted User]

Thanks dublinbuster for showing us just how desperate the Brexit crowd are.

"All we need is some Muslim terrorists killing our people. That will let us ramp up war in the Middle East, and threaten the EU with higher oil prices. EZ Win GG."

Infini

dublinbuster wrote: »

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

Scotland is gone if there's a Hard Brexit, make no mistake they voted to remain emphatically and were overruled by little England and the welsh. They had a referendum on Independence and one of the reasons for voting to remain united was EU membership, something which is about to be taken away from them against their will and only a few short years after looking to keep it as such.

Bigus

dublinbuster wrote: »

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

The days of high oil prices is a busted flush in 2018 , as a result of alternative renewable energies such as wind( as high as 65% of Ireland's total electricity requirements sometimes), solar and energy storage along with much more efficient ICE and even electric cars.
High oil prices would only hasten role out of these alternatives, ultimately collapsing the price forever which is not in the oil producers interest.

Interesting theory all the same dublinbuster to bring some logic to Brexit. If it's worse for us we'll make sure it's a disaster for you , type of logic .

Peregrinus

Interesting article on politico.eu about divisions in the Tory Brexiteer camp, and the loss of controlwhich this has caused them.

Basically, the article suggests, Brexiteers are divided between:

(a) accepting the kind of deal May will go for, which keeps the UK fairly closely aligned with the EU, in the hope that they can diverge more in the future, or

(b) holding out for a harder brexit at the outset, but thereby risking "political turmoil and the possibility of no Brexit at all".

May has been able to exploit these divisions to cling to office, and even to bring some of the harder Brexiters to a point where they feel constrained to accept things that six months or a year ago they were denouncing.

Blowfish

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

I wouldn't mind, but that's been known since the start. It's the exact reason that the UK copy/pasting the trade deals the EU has with other countries simply won't work. 55% of the car would then need to be made in the UK which the UK simply isn't capable of doing right now.

Anthracite

Peregrinus wrote: »

May has been able to exploit these divisions to cling to office, and even to bring some of the harder Brexiters to a point where they feel constrained to accept things that six months or a year ago they were denouncing.

Things like reality?

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

It would be more accurate to suggest that the UK has put a bomb under the UK automotive industry and plans to light it despite everyone telling them that bombs are bad for automotive, and other, industries.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Interesting article on politico.eu about divisions in the Tory Brexiteer camp, and the loss of controlwhich this has caused them.

Basically, the article suggests, Brexiteers are divided between:

(a) accepting the kind of deal May will go for, which keeps the UK fairly closely aligned with the EU, in the hope that they can diverge more in the future, or

(b) holding out for a harder brexit at the outset, but thereby risking "political turmoil and the possibility of no Brexit at all".

May has been able to exploit these divisions to cling to office, and even to bring some of the harder Brexiters to a point where they feel constrained to accept things that six months or a year ago they were denouncing.

I don't know if we are missing something here. We have all the indications that the EU will not accept the fudge that Theresa May is proposing in the article. She is putting this forward to outflank the ERG in the Conservatives and as you point out keep her in the big seat.

Of course, even if the prime minister manages to get her Cabinet to agree, she is yet to secure the backing of Brussels, where EU officials and diplomats say the U.K.’s latest proposal is dead on arrival. The U.K. parliament, too, could yet force May to change tack over customs — or something else.

But, despite all the noise, May and her team believe they have found a fudge that the majority of her Cabinet can stomach, partly because some pro-Leave Tories didn’t realize what was happening, because others came around to May’s approach, and because the rest did not have a plan to stop it.

In short, Brexiteers lost control of Brexit.

What happens when the EU tells the UK the policy will not work? What does that do for her internal politics? Or does she have indications from the EU that they are willing to compromise?

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know if we are missing something here. We have all the indications that the EU will not accept the fudge that Theresa May is proposing in the article. She is putting this forward to outflank the ERG in the Conservatives and as you point out keep her in the big seat.

What happens when the EU tells the UK the policy will not work? What does that do for her internal politics? Or does she have indications from the EU that they are willing to compromise?

I think the subtext of the thing is that Teresa May is slowly dragging the party in a softer direction and, while she hasn't yet got to a point where she can get the party to accept an operational, functional Brexit agreement (i.e. one the EU can actually agree to) given enough time, she might get there.

She's also helped by shifting public opinion (which also takes time). People are becoming more relaxed about immigration, and more worried about the practical implications of hard Brexit, and this makes a softer Brexit more politically acceptable to Tory voters, as well as to the party.

Frankly, that she will eventually get the party to where it needs to be is by no means a certainty. But what has the EU got to lose by giving her the opportunity to try? That, at any right, is the thinking behind the actions of those "close to the Prime Minister" who, I have no doubt, spoke to politico journalists to facilitate this article.