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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

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The Politics Mods.

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Mtx

Brexit bad

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

And if that wasn't bad enough Barnier seems to have done Dublin no favors today

Barnier Rejects Freezing Brexit Talks If No Irish Progress

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-04/barnier-rejects-freezing-brexit-talks-if-no-irish-progress

I don't think that's "doing Dublin no favours". Quite the opposite.

Freezing the talks would be doing us no favours, since that increases the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, which would be very bad for us.

Not freezing the talks, by contrast, doesn't mean simply ignoring the fact that the UK has still failed to put its border/customs proposals on the table, or even to make up its mind what proposals it will advance. Nor does it imply that it'll be fine, we'll go ahead with no customs or border deal in place.

On the contrary, I think it means focussing the talks on the likelihood - the virtual certainty, at this point - that, whatever proposal the UK eventually decides to put forward is not going to be operational by December 2020. Which means, David, Teresa, that we now need to talk mainly about the backstop, because we are definitely going to be implementing the backstop between December 2020 and whenever a long-term arrangement is put in place. Which means the UK can no longer dismiss the EU's draft text on the backstop while refusing to put forward text of its own. So forget max fac, and forget max fac 2, and forget customs partnership; we can come back to those later, but the priority now is the backstop and that's what we'll be talking about from now until we have agreed it.

mickoneill31 wrote: »

When is the time when the EU has to say "We're not going to agree. Time to prepare for no deal ".

As Zub says, that time never comes. Or, it comes on 20 March 2019.

The EU has been preparing for no deal for months. Here's the EU gateway page to its notices to stakeholders; there has been a stream of them since November 2017. All the stuff you read every few weeks about the UK being excluded from Galileo, from GDPR governance, etc? Most of those outrage-fests are sparked by notices published here, all of which are variations on the same theme; "this is how we are planning to handle matters if the UK becomes a third country with no special deal".

The EU isn't forced to choose between negotiating a deal and prepared for no deal; it can do both. So, for that matter, can the UK. The difference is that the EU has chosen to do both, while the UK has chosen not to.

Zubeneschamali

mickoneill31 wrote: »

When is the time when the EU has to say "We're not going to agree. Time to prepare for no deal ".

The EU are preparing for No Deal right now.

The EU can keep talking right up to Brexit day. No telling which day the Brits will pick as GiveInToTheEUtoGetAWithdrawalDealBecauseWeNeedATransitionPeriod day.

mickoneill31

Strazdas wrote: »

I wonder if Barnier has been misquoted here? It doesn't tally with what he has been consistently saying for the last six months or more.

What he said seems OK to me. He's not going to agree to be painted into a corner. That's the UKs job.
The Irish component is just one aspect. We're getting closer to the deadlines now. There's no time to stop. Negotiations will have to stop soon anyway. I think the UK want to drag this out to March.
When is the time when the EU has to say "We're not going to agree. Time to prepare for no deal ".

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bertie Ahern warned that his biggest worry is that the British government manage to push things to the October summit. Seems that's exactly what they are trying to do thinking presumably the EU will put pressure on Ireland at that stage.

This is the "Varadkar called in to a room by France and Germany for a chat" scenario at the October summit.

UK Brexit blueprint delayed until after summit

https://www.ft.com/content/c92f7ea6-67f4-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec

And if that wasn't bad enough Barnier seems to have done Dublin no favors today

Barnier Rejects Freezing Brexit Talks If No Irish Progress

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-04/barnier-rejects-freezing-brexit-talks-if-no-irish-progress

I wonder if Barnier has been misquoted here? It doesn't tally with what he has been consistently saying for the last six months or more.

UsedToWait

Infini wrote: »

We also have the "Nuclear Option" if they want to go down that road. That being said "keep talking" just mean's that as well. Keeping the dialogue going. Doesn't mean they'll sell Ireland out especially since the whole Border Issue is an accident waiting to happen if dealt with poorly.

Plus, the EU won't want to give the British ammunition in their effort to blame a no-deal Brexit on EU intransigence,

Keep the talks going all the way to the cliff edge.

Hopefully sanity might prevail before they jump.

Infini

judeboy101 wrote: »

I can see that once again, we are going to have to "take one for the team".

We also have the "Nuclear Option" if they want to go down that road. That being said "keep talking" just mean's that as well. Keeping the dialogue going. Doesn't mean they'll sell Ireland out especially since the whole Border Issue is an accident waiting to happen if dealt with poorly.

With that being said I wonder how the British Economy is going to fare when the specter of a "No Deal" disaster becomes more and more realistic. The fact that they can't even have their own White Paper ready for an extremely important summit show's up really how incompetent they are at best and how delusional they are at worst. To top it all off if they delay to the October Summit it will literally be make or break for them as failing there mean's no deal is the only show in town bar aborting this clusterfúck of failures, fúck ups and ignorant stupidity.

EdgeCase

Well we can still veto the deal. Barnier can keep talking, it doesn’t mean much though as the whole thing still has to be signed off.

I’d be surprised if they get any agreement at all at this stage. Looks like a car crash.

judeboy101

I can see that once again, we are going to have to "take one for the team".

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/William_Bain/status/1003747573973348352

Kermit.de.frog

Bertie Ahern warned that his biggest worry is that the British government manage to push things to the October summit. Seems that's exactly what they are trying to do thinking presumably the EU will put pressure on Ireland at that stage.

This is the "Varadkar called in to a room by France and Germany for a chat" scenario at the October summit.

UK Brexit blueprint delayed until after summit

https://www.ft.com/content/c92f7ea6-67f4-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec

And if that wasn't bad enough Barnier seems to have done Dublin no favors today

Barnier Rejects Freezing Brexit Talks If No Irish Progress

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-04/barnier-rejects-freezing-brexit-talks-if-no-irish-progress

Enzokk

McGiver wrote: »

That's the Swiss model, isn't it? Think the EP mentioned in their paper "Economic impact of Brexit" that the EC/Council don't fancy another bilateral hell as they have with the Swiss.

Also as in the image Capt'n Midnight posted they don't want free movement of people, have to pay significant funds to the EU and they want regulatory freedom so that option is out in any case.

Just on the link to the RTE story if you wanted to read between the lines there is nothing to suggest that the UK is prepared for a no-deal Brexit.

However Mrs May's official spokesman said: "The Department for Exiting the European Union has said that these claims are completely false.

"A significant amount of work and decision making has gone into our no deal plans, especially as it relates to ports, and we know that none of this would happen."

Asked if that was a "cast-iron guarantee", the spokesman said: "We are planning for all scenarios and we will make sure that we are fully prepared in the event of any eventuality."

But the government had "equally been clear that we will secure a good deal" and it was "in the interests of both the UK and the EU to do so".

To me that reads as not being prepared. The Dutch preparations for a no-deal Brexit is more advanced than the UK. That should tell you how prepared they are. Regarding the bold bit, how can the be prepared if they still need to make sure they will be fully prepared? That means they are not prepared for a no-deal Brexit. This statement is to appease the idiots at the ERG so they keep May in charge for a few more months.

Also, stating that it is in everyone's interest to get a deal doesn't mean it will happen. I mean it is in my best interest to pay off my credit card bill. I know it, my partner knows it, everyone knows it. Doesn't mean I make it happen though. Not leaving the EU is in the UK's best interest but they insist on leaving so I wish they would shove that line so far up their behind that it scratches their throats.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

I was thinking, if they open their borders, even on a temporary basis, and let all the lorries in from Europe without restriction with food and supplies, and the French inspect every lorry entering France, as required for a third country, how long will it be before every lorry is stuck in a lorry park off the M20, or in a queue either on the M20, M50, M1, M4, M40 or M6?

And what will happen in Europe if all these trucks get sucked into the Brexit quagmire?

In essence the UK port authorities will implement limits for trucks with goods entering the ferry to match the spaces available on the other side (as the trucks will simply not be allowed of if there is no space). Trucks going empty will get a express lane to the port and get to return again. Will drive up the cost of shipping obviously as a lot of one way shipping but the volume is already at 80% returning without a load anyway so not significantly different than today. That will also ensure the issues of "no food, riots etc." will not happen though I can foresee certain products might not be available in an interim period as they work out the details.

The big question mark of course is the time from crash out to them realizing it needs to be done. Personally I'm betting it will take them two weeks due to paralysis and blame games going on when they crash out but if they got a bit of cop on / manager with brains and willing to act to get it done it can be sorted out in a few days (though I'd not be surprised if truckers will end up "forgetting" to bring loads to Europe to simply get their trucks back in circulation in the beginning by simply leaving goods behind on the side of the road).

WomanSkirtFan8

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Theresa May was her predecessor or am I wrong?

No you're absolutel right. she was and was apparently, also the one responsible for the Windrush scandal as well unless i'm mistaken.

Sam Russell

I was thinking, if they open their borders, even on a temporary basis, and let all the lorries in from Europe without restriction with food and supplies, and the French inspect every lorry entering France, as required for a third country, how long will it be before every lorry is stuck in a lorry park off the M20, or in a queue either on the M20, M50, M1, M4, M40 or M6?

And what will happen in Europe if all these trucks get sucked into the Brexit quagmire?

Capt'n Midnight

Infini wrote: »

Guess they preparing for the sequel to the London Riot's because when people start finding themselves short of food, fuel, and basically in an economic tailspin it's certainly gonna get ugly if they're seriously stupid about driving their whole country off the cliffs of Dover!

Get real.

They won't be drving the country off the cliffs of Dover anytime soon.

Mostly because of the tailbacks on the M20.

McGiver

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Britain Elects has a most informative poll on post-Brexit options for EU relations, and it appears most Britons favour EEA membership. Of course, EFTA forbids membership of a customs union, so the UK may need to be an independent signatory:

https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1003616082257678336

That's the Swiss model, isn't it? Think the EP mentioned in their paper "Economic impact of Brexit" that the EC/Council don't fancy another bilateral hell as they have with the Swiss.

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

What is "East Europe" exactly?

It's all the countries that are worried about having to face Russia alone.

The EU's isn't just about money.

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia? That's Eastern Europe, more like Northern.

Charles Babbage

murphaph wrote: »

But this could take decades like it took with Ireland. Ireland is now a net contributor but EU membership has never been more popular. It's almost as if the Irish realise that EU membership brings economic benefits way beyond a few structural funds. The Poles will be the same if they become net contributors I believe.

Exactly. Being a net contributor is like being a top rate tax payer, the need tocontribute isn't ideal but being in a position where you have to make them is better than being a net recipient.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sadly, looks like Labour will whip against the EEA amendment, which would leave the Border like Turkey:

https://mobile.twitter.com/trevdick/status/1003624877474177026

Labour would likely be happy to do something different for NI and their objection to the EEA is so they can have lots of public spending etc they would probably keep many standards the same so that keeping NI in the EEA might not be too difficult.

Infini

BonnieSituation wrote: »

My god, There may be Brexit coins, to follow on the heels of the Brext stamps championed by Leadsom:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-coins-royal-mint-advisory-committee-robert-jenrick-treasury-a8375726.html

Valued at €1.12 before minting and 50c after Brexit!

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Britain 'fully prepared' for no-deal Brexit - Downing Street

grand. So it's a red white and blue Brexit then ?

Guess they preparing for the sequel to the London Riot's because when people start finding themselves short of food, fuel, and basically in an economic tailspin it's certainly gonna get ugly if they're seriously stupid about driving their whole country off the cliffs of Dover!

Capt'n Midnight

Britain 'fully prepared' for no-deal Brexit - Downing Street

grand. So it's a red white and blue Brexit then ?

Strazdas

BonnieSituation wrote: »

My god, There may be Brexit coins, to follow on the heels of the Brext stamps championed by Leadsom:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-coins-royal-mint-advisory-committee-robert-jenrick-treasury-a8375726.html

It's all about symbolism for these nutcases : coins, stamps, blue passports etc......imagine the idiocy of tearing up Single Market membership just so these ridiculous and completely irrelevant things can be introduced.

BonnieSituation

My god, There may be Brexit coins, to follow on the heels of the Brext stamps championed by Leadsom:

The Independent wrote:

Britain could produce a new set of coins to commemorate Britain leaving the European Union, a treasury minister has hinted.

A number of Tory MPs have written to the Treasury, calling on the department to forge a new set of coins marking Brexit.

Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Robert Jenrick replied to the idea saying he can “see the argument” for the suggestion, when approached by the Sun newspaper.

A Treasury spokesperson confirmed Mr Jenrick's comments, "namely that there could be an argument for the coins."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-coins-royal-mint-advisory-committee-robert-jenrick-treasury-a8375726.html

J Mysterio

Nody wrote: »

Well looks like next week will be interesting; May is putting it all on a single push to overturn all 15 Brexit amendments next Wednesday in one go.

Now this vote could turn very interesting both in terms of the Tory rebels voting against the government as well as Labour voting against Corbyn's insistence of staying outside the Customs Union. Both could potentially blow up the chasms that split both parties depending on how hard the respective leaders and whips push the topic.

Jesus, this will be interesting. Glad its all being done at once tbh, gives a focus.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

That should be available to watch online I think?

https://www.parliament.uk/

Business will be broadcast here all day.

Great resource too how it's all set up on the day of sessions. You can skip around all speakers etc.

Beechwoodspark

dublinbuster wrote: »

See Poland.
The Polish government has stated the day we stop receiving money from the EU and become a contributor is the day we leave the EU.
Now imagine any other club where you stated this, you would be asked to leave straight away, not the EU as they are terrified of once a country leaves, it will show its not the end of the world, life will go on.

Have you a source for this purported polish statement?

Nody

Well looks like next week will be interesting; May is putting it all on a single push to overturn all 15 Brexit amendments next Wednesday in one go.

Theresa May will seek to overturn all 15 Lords defeats on her flagship Brexit legislation in a single dramatic day next week, putting her authority on the line.

MPs have been warned they will be voting into the early hours of Wednesday morning when the EU withdrawal bill finally returns to the Commons next Tuesday, after weeks of delay.

...

In a letter to Conservative MPs, chief whip Julian Smith warned them they would be voting “well beyond” the normal finishing time, on “a number of divisions”.

And he made a pointed reference to voting in line with “both the referendum result and the Conservative party manifesto we all stood on last year”.

Now this vote could turn very interesting both in terms of the Tory rebels voting against the government as well as Labour voting against Corbyn's insistence of staying outside the Customs Union. Both could potentially blow up the chasms that split both parties depending on how hard the respective leaders and whips push the topic.

An Ciarraioch

Sadly, looks like Labour will whip against the EEA amendment, which would leave the Border like Turkey:

https://mobile.twitter.com/trevdick/status/1003624877474177026

ArmaniJeanss

dublinbuster wrote: »

See Poland.
The Polish government has stated the day we stop receiving money from the EU and become a contributor is the day we leave the EU.
Now imagine any other club where you stated this, you would be asked to leave straight away, not the EU as they are terrified of once a country leaves, it will show its not the end of the world, life will go on.

'Typical EU, not being a bully, we should leave' does make a nice refreshing change of approach from 'typical bullying EU, we should leave'.

murphaph

dublinbuster wrote: »

See Poland.
The Polish government has stated the day we stop receiving money from the EU and become a contributor is the day we leave the EU.
Now imagine any other club where you stated this, you would be asked to leave straight away, not the EU as they are terrified of once a country leaves, it will show its not the end of the world, life will go on.

But this could take decades like it took with Ireland. Ireland is now a net contributor but EU membership has never been more popular. It's almost as if the Irish realise that EU membership brings economic benefits way beyond a few structural funds. The Poles will be the same if they become net contributors I believe.